While Rico Dowdle undoubtedly possesses talent, it is incredibly telling how his former team utilized him in high-leverage moments a season ago. The fact that Carolina opted to give Chuba Hubbard 13 carries compared to Dowdle’s 5 during its Wild Card loss to the Rams last season speaks volumes about how he is viewed when the chips are down, something that I’m reading into as he joins an offense that returns its RB1 from 2025.
Should You Draft Rico Dowdle in Fantasy Football?
No longer is there any dawdling around when we’re talking about Dowdle. We know he is a fantasy asset to be respected at the RB position.
As of early September, Dowdle has an ADP of 83.8. His PFN rank is a little bit lower at 106. His positional rank is RB36. He’s projected at 9.9 points per game this coming season, just under double digits.
Dowdle broke onto the scene as a surprise thousand-yard runner in 2024 with the Dallas Cowboys. In 2025, he went from low-end fantasy RB2 to mid-level RB2 in Carolina’s offense, usurping Chuba Hubbard for the highest-volume role in that scheme. He secured a career-high fantasy finish of RB18 in PPR leagues, and he achieved a career-high 50 targets through the year. Though he logged almost identical rushing numbers in efficiency to 2024, he also notched a career-high 6 rushing touchdowns.
In the Steelers offense, Dowdle is currently listed as the RB2, behind Jaylen Warren, who’s RB25 in fantasy entering the season. I don’t necessarily think that there’s an 11-player gap between Warren and Dowdle at the running back position, but I also understand why Warren is rated higher. Dowdle averages more yards before contact. Warren averages more yards after contact. Warren is a marginally better receiving producer going off of last year alone, but he’s also a high-level pass blocker and is thus more likely than Dowdle to see the field on passing downs and get that receiving production.
Pittsburgh also had a 59.3% passing split last year, which was seventh highest in the league. With Aaron Rodgers increasingly unable to control game scripts at this stage of his career, it’s hard to see Pittsburgh straying too far from that, or at least falling below the top 16 in that category.
Nevertheless, Dowdle is a formidable, high-energy runner with urgent leg turn and finishing physicality, and he’ll benefit from running behind a Steelers offensive line that is quietly one of the league’s up-and-coming units. Purely as players, I definitely lean slightly in Warren’s favor. But if Warren’s value doesn’t line up for your pick specifically, or if you’re simply looking to go with the better value in Pittsburgh’s two-headed RB room, then Dowdle can be had for a slightly cheaper price and offers similar volume rushing potential, albeit at the cost of pass-down upside.
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Rico Dowdle’s Week 1 Fantasy Outlook
Analysis provided by PFN Analyst Kyle Soppe.
This could prove to be a maddening backfield, but there’s a decent chance things are straightforward.
Dowdle as the “traditional” running back with Jaylen Warren returning to the Jaylen Warren role of years prior to 2025 (Dowdle plugging in as the Najee Harris).
We will see what way the wind blows as the data points rack up, but that’s my evaluation, and in this matchup, that makes Dowdle my preferred option. This is a coin-toss game, and that means that the game script isn’t likely to tilt in either direction.
That works better for a between-the-tackles back, especially against a Falcons defense that was 10th worst after contact last season (fifth worst during the second half of 2025). Dowdle has run for 1,000 yards in consecutive seasons, and I suspect he gets off to a reasonable start this season, but I don’t regret ranking Warren ahead of him this summer.
I’m bearish on the Steelers for 2026, and that means Aaron Rodgers’ dropbacks in bulk more often than not: when that’s the case, Warren is the better PPR option.
I just don’t think that’s the game environment that we see on Sunday.
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Where Dowdle Ranks Among 2026 Running Backs
- Tony Pollard | TEN
- Kenny Gainwell | TB
- Jonathon Brooks | CAR
- Jacory Croskey-Merritt | WAS
- MarShawn Lloyd | GB
- Rico Dowdle | PIT
- Blake Corum | LAR
- Jordan Mason | MIN
- Kyle Monangai | CHI
- Rachaad White | WAS
- J.K. Dobbins | DEN
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