Carolina Panthers running back Rico Dowdle has been a week-winning waiver wire add for those who landed him after Chuba Hubbard succumbed to a calf injury. Hubbard has missed the last two weeks with the injury, and Dowdle has produced outlandish numbers in his absence.
In Weeks 5 and 6, Dowdle rushed for 389 yards and a touchdown, adding 84 yards and a further score through the air. Since 1970, only 13 players have rushed for 389 yards over a two-game span, with Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley the only other active players to do so.
However, with Hubbard now back in practice, should fantasy football managers be cashing in on Dowdle, or is the former Dallas Cowboys back now a legitimate fantasy asset?
Rico Dowdle Fantasy Outlook
Despite his immense output as a starter, Dowdle’s elite form is unlikely to continue much longer, if at all. The former UDFA has done enough to warrant more playing time than he was previously afforded in Carolina, but Hubbard will still have a significant role when healthy.
While Dowdle’s rushing efficiency has remained outstanding, despite a massive workload, his recent opportunities are about to take a massive hit. The Panthers’ back has had 62 combined rushing attempts and targets over the past two weeks. For context, Christian McCaffrey has had 56, in an injury-hit San Francisco 49ers offense that has led the league in offensive plays run.
The Panthers have also played two of the worst defenses in the NFL, the Cowboys and the Miami Dolphins, while Hubbard has been sidelined. Miami has allowed over 400 total yards in three straight games, while the Cowboys have allowed the seventh-most (tied) rushing yards per attempt (4.7) in the NFL.
Dowdle has done enough this year and last to be considered a starting-caliber NFL running back, but his role is up in the air with Hubbard returning. Managers can hope for RB1 numbers as long as Hubbard is out, but that could quickly slip to low-end RB2 to RB3 numbers upon his teammate’s return.
Chuba Hubbard Fantasy Outlook
If you didn’t have him on your team(s), it’s easy to forget that Hubbard was the RB14 in PPR leagues last season. The Panthers signed their star running back to a four-year, $33.2 million contract extension in November, and his role won’t have disappeared entirely in two games.
However, it’s impossible to think his grip on the starting job won’t have been affected by Dowdle’s emergence, with the Panthers having won both games Hubbard has missed. Had Carolina continued to lose despite Dowdle’s heroics, Hubbard would likely have returned to a majority split, but the team’s recent success is impossible to ignore.
A near 50-50 split would likely relegate both backs to the low-end RB2 range, with touchdowns offering potentially weekly upside for both. Hubbard had dominated the Carolina backfield before his injury, but those days are likely gone unless he can win them back.
Hubbard should be valued slightly lower than Dowdle moving forward, as calf injuries can be frustrating, and setbacks and complications are common. The split will likely be fairly even when Hubbard is fully healthy, making him a flex option at best moving forward.
Nothing is guaranteed, though, and if the Panthers decide to roll with the hot hand, it could be weeks before Hubbard sees significant playing time again. The Panthers currently rank 14th in PFSN’s Offense Impact metric — a shared backfield on a middling offense that sees plenty of negative game scripts — doesn’t scream “fantasy gold.”
Should Fantasy Managers Sell-High on Dowdle?
The trade value of every player varies from league to league, and some will find it easier than others to get a good return for Dowdle this week. The New York Jets and the Buffalo Bills offer similar great opportunities for rushing yards in Weeks 7 and 8, but selling high usually means selling early.
The nature of Hubbard’s injury makes Dowdle a very tempting hold; the former fourth-round pick has already missed more time than some expected. However, even if Hubbard misses more time down the road, the Panthers face some trickier run defenses later in the year.
Most notable are the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Seattle Seahawks, who rank fifth and second against the run this year in yards allowed per attempt, respectively. The Panthers face the Buccaneers in Week 16, followed by the Seahawks in Week 17; horrible timing for fantasy.
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If you would rather hold Dowdle until the wheels fall off, that’s perfectly understandable. Those with a bulletproof roster can afford to ride the wave, but those with holes to address would be wise to leverage Dowdle’s recent form if possible.
Any replacement should be a guaranteed weekly starter in your lineup, preferably at running back or receiver. You’re unlikely to get a player who’ll perform better than Dowdle while Hubbard is out, but if you can get a long-term, mid-range RB2 or mid-low-end WR2, you should probably take it.