Joe Burrow at QB3 is the boldest call on Kyle Soppe’s 2026 fantasy quarterback board, and it’s the one that decides whether these rankings age well.
Soppe laid out his top five on the Hot List: Josh Allen, Drake Maye, Burrow, Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels. That board breaks from industry consensus, and from Soppe’s own PFN quarterback rankings published July 4, which had Jackson second, Maye third, Daniels fourth, Jalen Hurts fifth and Burrow sixth. Four of the five spots moved. Hurts dropped out entirely.
Joe Burrow’s Outlier Ceiling Anchors Soppe’s 2026 Fantasy QB Rankings
He raises the objection himself before anyone else can. “He doesn’t run,” Soppe said. “That’s kind of the norm for what it takes to be in the top 5 at the position in 2026, until it isn’t, until you have one of those outlier seasons like Matthew Stafford. And Joe Burrow is the king of the outlier season.”
The projection that follows is aggressive but grounded. “As long as he’s on the field, I’m thinking 4,500 yards and 40 touchdowns, because that’s basically what he gives us every time he gives us a full season,” Soppe said.
The 2024 season supports it. Burrow led the NFL in attempts (652), completions (460), passing yards (4,918), touchdowns (43) and yards per game (289.3). Soppe also cited a career average north of 270 passing yards per game since Cincinnati drafted Ja’Marr Chase.
Then comes the honest part. “I’m not smart enough to think that I can predict injury,” Soppe said. Burrow made eight starts in 2025 before turf toe surgery shut him down, and he’s now missed extended time in three of his six NFL seasons. Ranking him third isn’t a production bet. It’s a health bet with an enormous payoff attached.
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The two bounce-back candidates behind him carry different questions. Soppe has Jackson fourth, dinged for rushing attempts per game that have fallen in three straight seasons and bottomed out at a career-worst 67 carries for 349 yards. He isn’t sweating it. “Lamar Jackson’s gonna be just fine, even if he doesn’t threaten for quarterback one,” he said. “I’d be surprised if he falls outside the top five.” The supporting case leans on Zay Flowers, coming off 86 catches for 1,211 yards, “who I like as much as anybody in the industry this year.”
Daniels closes the list at five, and the reasoning is roster-based rather than recovery-based. Soppe called new tight end Chig Okonkwo “actually an upgrade on Zach Ertz,” a defensible read given Washington committed roughly $27 million over three years to him. “I think we get the best team that Daniels has been a part of to date,” Soppe said, “and that puts up big fantasy numbers.”
Why Josh Allen Is Still the No. 1 Fantasy Quarterback for 2026
At the top, Soppe isn’t interested in a debate. He calls Allen PFSN’s No. 1 player overall, and the argument isn’t about ceiling. “The man’s been between 22 and 25 fantasy points in 6 straight seasons,” Soppe said. “But that’s not even what I like. You’re talking about the floor. The floor is what I want.”
He put a number on it. Allen has scored 15 or more fantasy points in over 85% of his games across that stretch, which makes him “more likely to score 15 fantasy points in a game than Michael Jordan was to make a free throw during his career.” Jordan shot 83.5% from the line.
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Maye at QB2 is the pick most managers will second-guess, because the January tape looked nothing like the regular season. Soppe waves it off. “You saw him struggle when the lights were brightest, and I get why that’s gonna color your opinion, but that’s an NFL take, it ain’t a fantasy one.” His counter: across four playoff games, Maye posted multiple passing touchdowns or double-digit carries in every one.
New England didn’t stand still, trading a first- and fifth-round pick to Philadelphia for A.J. Brown and signing Romeo Doubs. Brown is the best receiver Maye has worked with, and that’s the part of the QB2 case Soppe didn’t need to make.
That’s the thread running through all five. Soppe built this board around what a quarterback gives you in the games he plays, not the games he wins. Whether Burrow gets to play 17 of them is the only variable that matters.
