The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key Los Angeles Rams players heading into their matchup with the Atlanta Falcons to help you craft a winning lineup.
Matthew Stafford, QB
The Rams couldn’t move the ball on the ground in any way on Thursday night in Seattle, and that helped fuel a high Puka Nacua target game.
That’s all a Matthew Stafford manager can realistically do.
In the overtime loss, 12 of his 29 completions, 16 of his 48 targets, and 225 of his 457 passing yards went to his All-Pro teammate. The one-yard no-look TD was a work of art, and the OT score from 41 yards out was a reminder of how many ways this connection can gash a defense.
There were highlights peppered throughout this game, and it all resulted in a ninth straight multi-TD pass game for Stafford, the longest such streak since Patrick Mahomes rattled off 14 straight to connect the 2018 and 2019 seasons.
The lack of rushing upside is an obvious pain, but he’s averaging 0.61 points per pass on strong volume with game-breaking talent around him, and that’s worthy of our trust.
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I’m comfortable going this way in standard-sized leagues with nine 20+ point games (six of 25+ points), intriguing me more than the lack of cheap rushing points scares me. If you expect the Rams to handle their business like I do, then it’s worth noting that he’s been held under 20 fantasy points in a victory just once over the past two months.
Blake Corum, RB
Blake Corum is pretty clearly a part of this offense, and that’s not going anywhere. The second-year running back handled the second drive on Thursday night and finished with a season-high 14 carries in what was the most important game to date this season for the Rams.
The lack of usage in the passing game (seven catches this season) and unsustainable scoring rate (five touchdowns on 44 carries over his past four games, one on the first 140 of his career) are obvious red flags, but the limitations of Kyren Williams (we are more than a month removed from his last 20-yard touch) are real, and that puts Corum on the flex radar, even if you think the TD run comes to an end.
The percentage of touches in which he is scoring isn’t here to stay, but the usage patterns suggest a level of comfort with him in those spots. Even as the secondary RB, he has multiple red zone touches in four straight and in six of his past seven games.
He’s picked up yardage on 85.7% of his rush attempts this season, a rate that I’m OK with betting on in a floor sort of way, understanding that there is some scoring equity thanks to the potency of this offense in a critical spot.
Puka Nacua, WR
Are we allowed to speculate?
Stafford missed him on what should have been a 32-yard score against the Seahawks, a game that ended up being historic anyway, but a 10.2-point play that greedy fantasy managers are programmed to want.
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Nacua hauled in a no-look dime from the one-yard line and capped his evening with a 41-yard catch-and-run score in overtime on his way to the fourth-best (PPR) fantasy playoff game since the NFL extended to 17-game seasons.
He’s not the best at any one skill, but he’s a Tier 1 producer in everything (routes, timing, etc.), and that gives him every right to be considered the best in the sport.
Atlanta’s defense has given up 20+ PPR points to all sorts of receivers this season. Emeka Egbuka got there in the first game of his career, a past-his-prime Deebo Samuel did it, DeMario Douglas hung 20.0 on them in Week 9, Adonai Mitchell went off for 24.2 in Week 13, and, just three weeks ago, Jaxon Smith-Njigba got them for 28.1.
They’ve looked OK for spurts, but it takes much more than that to make me worried in the slightest when it comes to a healthy Nacua on an extended week. He’s the reason you’re in position to win your league, and him putting together an all-time semis/finals run is very much within the range of outcomes!
Colby Parkinson, TE
Well, that was a buzzkill.
After finishing five of six weeks as a TE1, Colby Parkinson crushed all of our dreams in thinking that we had solved the position with a late-season gem.
Sean McVay went heavy with the ‘13’ personnel, and while that really isn’t new for him, the usage was unlike what we’ve seen over the past two months from Stafford.
- Parkinson: 36 routes, 4 targets
- Terrance Ferguson: 36 routes, 4 targets, TD
- Davis Allen: 22 routes, 5 targets
And this is exactly why a player like Trey McBride is so valuable. McVay is ahead of the curve with formation sets like this where the defense has to decide to either operate at a size or athleticism deficiency, and while that’s great for Los Angeles, things like this can happen for fantasy purposes because we are at the mercy of the defense, not the offense.
That’s a bigger topic for another day, but the Seahawks didn’t want Parkinson to beat them in a meaningful way, and this offense isn’t designed to force the issue but rather to adapt and adjust.
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Arizona doesn’t have that luxury with McBride. It’s feed him or see your offense starve. I’m going to be putting more weight into ranking the supporting casts when evaluating this position next season, downgrading situations like this where variance is an asset for the offense, not a detriment.
As for Week 17, Parkinson still carries low-end TE1 potential, but judging how Atlanta wants to defend him is difficult because that decision rests on how they view their linebacker matchups in these three-tight-end sets.
I’m comfortable playing Parkinson, but I don’t feel obligated to do so.
