The fantasy football landscape shifts dramatically after Week 10, as unexpected performances and emerging storylines reshape our expectations for the season ahead. Some players exceed all projections, while others leave managers scratching their heads, wondering if early concerns were justified or simply growing pains.
Thursday night’s Las Vegas Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup could provide crucial clarity on several key start/sit situations for both NFC powerhouses. Get ready to dive deep into the developments that could make or break your fantasy team’s Week 10 performance.
Geno Smith, QB
After back-to-back-to-back-to-back single-digit performances, Geno Smith hung 26.3 fantasy points on the Jaguars in one of the more entertaining games of Week 9.
Don’t care.
He’s followed the Justin Fields plan of sporadic production this season (this is his third game clearing 17 points), but doesn’t have access to the cheat code that is athleticism, and that has me assuming dud performances in neutral spots until I see something sustainable pointing in the opposite direction.
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I’ve yet to see that, and I don’t expect to against one of the best defenses in the league, even with Patrick Surtain shelved. A player like this needs quick-hit ability through the air, and given that Smith has four deep completions over his past five contests, we are doubtful to get there.
Ashton Jeanty, RB
Ashton Jeanty’s usage in the passing game (4+ targets in three of his past four games) is what we asked for early in the season and is helping him overcome picking up less than two yards per carry before contact this season.
I don’t care how talented you believe the rookie to be; the rushing efficiency is unlikely to rebound as long as this offensive line and Smith continue to struggle. The touchdown reception last week showcased the wiggle that we assumed we’d see more of this season, but Jeanty can’t find open space when handed the ball, and that’s not going to change.
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The sixth overall pick has been held under 45 rushing yards in consecutive games, four times this season, and is at risk of a similar fate this week. The Broncos have been vulnerable at times to power run games, but that’s not exactly a word I’d use to describe this attack.
I’ve got Jeanty ranked as a strong RB2 this week, thinking that we see something similar to last week against the Jags: 12-15 carries with limited efficiency, along with 4-6 targets.
Brock Bowers, TE
Can you imagine if the bye week came earlier in the season?
I kid, but Bowers looked like rookie Bowers coming out of the off week. He caught 12 of 13 targets against the Jags for 127 yards and three scores, looking unguardable for all 60 minutes.
Since the beginning of last season, Bowers has had half of the 30-point (PPR) games from the tight end position across the NFL, and he led the Raiders in receiving by 80 yards in the near victory.
I’m not yet ready to say that he’s all the way back; we still have to see how the knee reacts, and he still does have a Smith problem that could pop up at any time, but he’s back to Tier 1 status and could pull your team out of the fire should you still have playoff aspirations.
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If we acknowledge that his last healthy game came in Week 1, then his last 15 healthy contests have seen him rack up 109 catches for 1,208 yards and eight scores. That’s elite-level upside for any tight end in the history of the game, let alone one dealing with below-average QB play.
If you stayed patient with a player we all labeled as a difference-maker this summer, you stand to be rewarded moving forward.
Michael Mayer, TE
It’s pretty hard to cut a tight end the week following an 83.3% snap share with seven targets earned, but this is the Bowers show once again, and that’s going to make it difficult, if not impossible, for Michael Mayer to turn those snaps into anything besides cardio.
I’m holding for now, just to make Bowers prove to me that the knee concerns are truly a thing of the past. But the second-year TE was used less as a blocker than Mayer was and touched the ball 10 more times despite being on the field for a few fewer snaps.
I’m not in the business of betting on Smith supporting multiple pass catchers if I can help it, thus making Mayer an expendable piece as your playoff roster begins to take form.
Wrong Travis on IR