The fantasy football landscape shifts dramatically after Week 10, as unexpected performances and emerging storylines reshape our expectations for the season ahead. Some players exceed all projections, while others leave managers scratching their heads, wondering if early concerns were justified or simply growing pains.
Thursday night’s Las Vegas Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup could provide crucial clarity on several key start/sit situations for both NFC powerhouses. Get ready to dive deep into the developments that could make or break your fantasy team’s Week 10 performance.
Los Angeles Raiders
Geno Smith, QB
After back-to-back-to-back-to-back single-digit performances, Geno Smith hung 26.3 fantasy points on the Jaguars in one of the more entertaining games of Week 9.
Don’t care.
He’s followed the Justin Fields plan of sporadic production this season (this is his third game clearing 17 points), but doesn’t have access to the cheat code that is athleticism, and that has me assuming dud performances in neutral spots until I see something sustainable pointing in the opposite direction.
I’ve yet to see that, and I don’t expect to against one of the best defenses in the league, even with Patrick Surtain shelved. A player like this needs quick-hit ability through the air, and given that Smith has four deep completions over his past five contests, we are doubtful to get there.
Ashton Jeanty, RB
Ashton Jeanty’s usage in the passing game (4+ targets in three of his past four games) is what we asked for early in the season and is helping him overcome picking up less than two yards per carry before contact this season.
MORE: Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer
I don’t care how talented you believe the rookie to be; the rushing efficiency is unlikely to rebound as long as this offensive line and Smith continue to struggle. The touchdown reception last week showcased the wiggle that we assumed we’d see more of this season, but Jeanty can’t find open space when handed the ball, and that’s not going to change.
The sixth overall pick has been held under 45 rushing yards in consecutive games, four times this season, and is at risk of a similar fate this week. The Broncos have been vulnerable at times to power run games, but that’s not exactly a word I’d use to describe this attack.
I’ve got Jeanty ranked as a strong RB2 this week, thinking that we see something similar to last week against the Jags: 12-15 carries with limited efficiency, along with 4-6 targets.
Jakobi Meyers, WR
In all of our praising of Brock Bowers, can we pour one out for those of us with stock tied up in Jakobi Meyers?
Not so fast!
That was my initial impression of his stock following the massive performance from the Raider TE. Still, on Tuesday, he was dealt to a Jacksonville team that has Travis Etienne on IR for at least the next three weeks and is trying to make a run after the Steelers made the Colts bleed their own blood last week.
No matter what you think about Trevor Lawrence, this is a situational upgrade for Meyers.
He’ll have to outperform Parker Washington, but I do think he wins that battle over time. The banged-up nature of this WR room opens up more targets than I had him projected for with the Raiders, and that gives him the potential to be a top 30 receiver moving forward.
Personally, I’m slow-playing this. I’ve got him ranked ahead of Washington, but outside of my top 30 this week as he gets worked up to speed. The Jags have a two-week stretch coming up where they face the Cardinals and Titans in consecutive weeks, and they do draw the reigning Jets in Week 15, the first round of the playoffs in most leagues.
Brock Bowers, TE
Can you imagine if the bye week came earlier in the season?
I kid, but Bowers looked like rookie Bowers coming out of the off week. He caught 12 of 13 targets against the Jags for 127 yards and three scores, looking unguardable for all 60 minutes.
Since the beginning of last season, Bowers has had half of the 30-point (PPR) games from the tight end position across the NFL, and he led the Raiders in receiving by 80 yards in the near victory.
I’m not yet ready to say that he’s all the way back; we still have to see how the knee reacts, and he still does have a Smith problem that could pop up at any time, but he’s back to Tier 1 status and could pull your team out of the fire should you still have playoff aspirations.
If we acknowledge that his last healthy game came in Week 1, then his last 15 healthy contests have seen him rack up 109 catches for 1,208 yards and eight scores. That’s elite-level upside for any tight end in the history of the game, let alone one dealing with below-average QB play.
If you stayed patient with a player we all labeled as a difference-maker this summer, you stand to be rewarded moving forward.
Michael Mayer, TE
It’s pretty hard to cut a tight end the week following an 83.3% snap share with seven targets earned, but this is the Bowers show once again, and that’s going to make it difficult, if not impossible, for Michael Mayer to turn those snaps into anything besides cardio.
MORE: Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer
I’m holding for now, just to make Bowers prove to me that the knee concerns are truly a thing of the past. But the second-year TE was used less as a blocker than Mayer was and touched the ball 10 more times despite being on the field for a few fewer snaps.
I’m not in the business of betting on Smith supporting multiple pass catchers if I can help it, thus making Mayer an expendable piece as your playoff roster begins to take form.
Denver Broncos
Bo Nix, QB
Bo Nix has now thrown for multiple scores in three straight games and run for over 20 yards in four of his past five games, trending closer to what we saw during his rookie season at the perfect time.
He struggled with efficiency in Houston last week (48.7% complete). Still, with the longest rush of his season (25 yards) and 40+ opportunities in four of his past six games, Nix can safely be started in all formats this weekend against a Raiders defense that has allowed 20+ fantasy points to similar QBs that offer some versatility to combat passing inconsistencies (Marcus Mariota and Trevor Lawrence).
We are still a ways away from Nix taking that next step. He was baited into an interception last week and ranks 26th of 33 qualified QBs in YPA against pressure. The tools are in place in terms of his skill set, surrounding upside, and creative coaching for Nix to be locked into lineups, even if there are holes in the profile of the Year 2 signal-caller.
After a Week 12 bye, Denver gets the Commanders and Raiders, matchups that should allow Nix to elevate your team as the regular season comes to a close.
J.K. Dobbins, RB
JK Dobbins has been consistent over the past three weeks: efficient with average volume, no scoring equity, and limited versatility.
That’s not a profile that is overly interesting to me, especially with 47.6% of his carries this season coming against loaded boxes. The ceiling is limited, and you could argue that there is some risk coming on the playing time from.
Rookie RJ Harvey has caught a touchdown pass in three straight games and is averaging 4.5 yards per carry on his limited number of attempts on the ground.
There are no real signs that Harvey is a real threat for the lead role, but Dobbins is already within 60 carries of his career high, reminding us that his ability to handle bellcow work for four months is a real question.
These two backs have combined for just under 23 touches per game over the past three weeks, so even if just one or two additional touches start being put on the plate of Harvey, Dobbins’ status as a middling RB2 is at risk.
The Raiders are the sixth-worst rush defense by EPA this season: Dobbins is a strong RB2 in this specific spot, but his star is at risk of fading as we get into the most important time of the fantasy season.
RJ Harvey, RB
It’s important to remember that our needs don’t always align with those of the professional franchises.
Harvey is the only RB to catch a TD pass in three straight games during the 2000s, has hauled in 23 of 26 targets this season, and has a pair of 40+ yard runs on his resume.
The profile looks like one that should be expanded, but he’s yet to be pushed past a 41.3% snap share, and with things going well in Denver, it’s hard to imagine a dramatic pivot in the short term.
MORE: Free Fantasy Waiver Wire Tool
I’m not comfortable in flexing Harvey, and if he’s not projecting for more than 6-8 touches, I’m not going to get there. This isn’t a talent evaluation thing; I like Harvey as much, if not more, than you do. It’s an opportunity thing in an offense that has had some swings in productivity.
Dobbins is the lead back in town, and he’s obviously far from a certain thing on the health front, thus making Harvey a strong asset to hold, even if you can’t really play him at the moment.
Courtland Sutton, WR
Courtland Sutton was locked up for much of Week 9 by Derek Stingley and this Houston defense, but all it takes is one.
He beat Stingley on a go route, a spot where the Pro Bowl corner seemed to believe that he had help over the top, and converted a 30-yard pass into a TD.
The play resulted in Sutton’s first TD since September, and I fear that the inconsistencies are here to stay.
- Week 4: 9.2-yard aDOT
- Week 5: 10.5-yard aDOT
- Week 6: 11.7-yard aDOT
- Week 7: 12.4-yard aDOT
- Week 8: 16.0-yard aDOT
- Week 9: 22.0-yard aDOT
The Raiders allow the 10th-most yards per deep pass attempt this season, making it possible that Sutton rips off a chunk gain, but they also own the sixth-lowest touchdown rate on such throws.
The worry here is more long-term than Week 10. I expect Nix to be comfortable in this spot, and that makes his WR1 a viable low-end WR2 in the fantasy world. But against a defense like the Chiefs (Denver faces Kansas City next week and heads to Arrowhead in Week 17), the low floor certainly becomes a concern.
Marvin Mims Jr., WR
A receiver with an inconsistent role playing in an inconsistent offense isn’t how I like to spend my fantasy roster spots.
Crazy, I know.
Marvin Mims flashed his potential last season and was a part of it in 2025, but it’s not nearly enough to blindly hold him.
Only once this season has he played on the field for the majority of Denver’s offensive snaps, and his earning an end zone target isn’t that much more likely (two such looks this season).
READ MORE: Soppe’s Week 10 Fantasy Football Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em: Analysis for Every Player in Every Game
The Broncos have a tough matchup next week (vs. KC) before their bye. That means if you cut him now, it’s unlikely that there is any interest in him before Week 13 at the earliest, and those are the types of edges I want to grind out this time of year.
Take a shot on a receiver or handcuff RB somewhere else. The odds of Mims exploding at the level where someone is holding him through the bye are low, so even if you like him, you can reasonably roll the dice somewhere else over the next three weeks and add him back for the stretch run.
Mims ran hot to score six times on 39 catches last season, and he’s regressing to what I expect to be more of his career trajectory as a part of an offense that brought in high-pedigree talent to compete for targets this summer.
Pat Bryant, WR
The idea of Pat Bryant made some sense in a matchup against the Texans, where Deek Stingley was expected to limit the appeal of Sutton, but nothing changed, and that meant that the rookie wasn’t worth our DFS money.
There is seemingly a role for him to work into, but we have little proof that Sean Payton is interested in putting that plan into action.
Every roster spot this time of year is valuable, and that means that Bryant is by no means a must-hold. He’s yet to be on the field for 60% of Denver’s snaps in a single game, and his high-water mark for expected PPR points is 7.5.
He’ll be on my list for post-hype options in August.
But the fact that I’m labeling him as such means that I have next to no expectations for consistency moving forward in 2025.
Evan Engram, TE
The up-and-down nature of Nix can be tough to watch at times, and Evan Engram is the one who seems to feel it the most.
He finished last week without a single catch despite running a route on 83.9% of his snaps. I’m not reading too far into it (4+ receptions in five straight games prior), but there is no denying that the inconsistencies of his QB introduce a lower floor than most with this sort of role.
MORE: Free Fantasy Start/Sit Lineup Optimizer
He lives in the TE15 range when things are going right in Denver, and that’s where I have him ranked in this favorable spot. My hope is that he can show us signs of life over the next two weeks to give us reason to hold him through the Week 12 bye, with the Commanders, Raiders, Packers, and Jaguars on deck after that.
