These teams have a total of two losses since Halloween and both came against a team in the other matchup of AFC powerhouses looking to represent the conference in the Super Bowl.
Before we can dive into any revenge narratives on that front, we have Sunday to worry about, a spot where an MVP candidate in Drake Maye takes on a Houston defense that has a realistic case for claiming that it is the best singular unit in the NFL.
Let’s take a look at these resumes and see who holds the fantasy football edge when all angles are covered.
Houston Texans Fantasy Preview
I know none of us really believed in the Pittsburgh Steelers, but how Houston picked at their flaws and wore them down over 60 minutes was impressive.
They beat a Mike Tomlin team by 24 points with a D+ effort in the first half, on the road, without their star receiver doing much before leaving on a stretcher.
I don’t care about your opinion of the 2025 Steelers; that’s an impressive result.
Their defense was suffocating (PIT: two-of-14 on third downs and 3.1 yards per play) as usual, but how about the 23rd-ranked third-down offense moving the chains on 10-of-15 attempts against a defense that was the 12th best on that front since Week 13?
They are going to need Nico Collins (head) back for this game to add a dimension. Stroud proved on Monday night that he can take what is given to him at a high level (10-of-12 with the Christian Kirk touchdown on passes thrown short of the sticks), and he should be able to do more of the same in this spot.
Patriots Regular Season Defensive Ranks
- Deep Passes: 3rd in YPA allowed
- Short Passes: 20th in YPA allowed
The New England run defense has regressed over the course of the season, and while it would be a stretch to say that Houston thrives on the ground, it was at least good to see not only Woody Marks carry 19 times for 112 yards and a score last week, but also the team to feel comfortable giving Nick Chubb 10 attempts (48 yards).
This defense can keep them competitive, and I think we’ve seen enough from the offense to say that they can take home a game if given the opportunity. If this turns into a track meet, they are in trouble, but Houston games rarely run out like tha,t and if it’s a one-score contest late, they have every chance to pull off the upset.
New England Patriots Fantasy Preview
It’s mid-January, and Foxboro has a playoff game where the Patriots are expected to advance. It’s been a tough year for those basking in the few down years that this franchise has had, and with Maye at the controls, we could be looking at another extended run at the highest of levels.
The MVP candidate finds himself in a tough matchup this week, though he’s shown all season that he’s unlikely to blink.
His savvy has been on display even more of late as he’s completed 14-of-19 passes for 281 yards, two scores and zero interceptions when pressured over his past three games, a strength that will be called upon against this fierce Texans defense that has twisted offenses in knots all season on their way to the second-highest grade in our PFSN NFL Defensive Impact metric (a fourth straight season of ranking improvement for that unit).
What I think could drive the result of this game, however, isn’t Maye’s right arm as much as it is his legs. He’s run for 20-plus yards in each of his past five games (66 against the Bolts over the weekend), and if we take for granted that Houston will generate pressure, it stands to reason that his ability to move the chains with the ball in his hands will go a long way toward determining who advances.
Wild Card RB Splits
- Rhamondre Stevenson: 62.5% snaps, 23 routes, 13 touches (one red zone)
- TreVeyon Henderson: 40.6% snaps, 8 routes, 10 touches (one red zone)
The backfield is another aspect of this game that I find interesting. You’d struggle to find a football fan who thinks Stevenson is the more explosive back, but Mike Vrabel clearly trusts him, and if last week was an example of things to come, he’s going to be the lead option on Sunday.
That could be an issue. He’s capable, but do you think that New England is going to out-grind the Texans? Personally, I don’t. That was the issue with the Steelers on Monday: their game plan was to out-Houston Houston. Ain’t happening.
If Henderson can rip off a big run, the script all changes and things loosen, but if this offense is content for the three-yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust approach that is more likely with Stevenson, it’s easy to see them being behind the chains with regularity.
Speaking of big plays, can Maye pull them off?
He’s been great in that regard. He has a deep touchdown pass in six of his past seven games, and on Sunday night, he hit four different teammates for 20-plus-yard gains (and Diggs wasn’t one of them).
The Texans own the fourth-highest deep pass interception rate (9%, double the league average,) and that makes this an intriguing matchup of strengths. They rank 15th in YAC allowed, a flaw that the Pats could try to pick at, but with whom?
In theory, Henderson may be the answer to that question, but assuming that Vrabel goes that route is dangerous (two targets over the past mont,h and he doesn’t have a 20-yard reception this season despite the skills that jump off the screen at you).
Patriots vs. Texans Prediction
I’ve gone back and forth on this result, and it really is a matter of which strength shines brightest. This is an offense-based league, and that may lean you in the direction of the home team, but the fact that Houston creates blitz pressure on 55.1% of such dropbacks has me leaning in that direction.
Not only was that the highest rate in the league this season, but it’s also the third-best mark of the past decade. They also rank fourth in non-blitz pressure rate, and that gives them the ability to get creative with their fronts against Maye.
SHELDON RANKINS TAKES IT BACK FOR A TD
HOUvsPIT on ESPN/ABC
Stream on @NFLPlus and ESPN App pic.twitter.com/K63YkhukX8— NFL (@NFL) January 13, 2026
If they can make New England one-dimensional, I’ll take my chances in them creating a game-changing play before Stefon Diggs breaks loose from Derek Stingley Jr.
I expect this game to be played within seven points throughout, and I prefer the experience that Houston has accumulated this season in gotta-have-it spots. Across the regular season, the Patriots led for 75.6% of their fourth-quarter offensive snaps, an absurd rate that was nine percentage points ahead of the second-place Rams.
I’m not saying that Maye will falter when pressed, but I am curious as to how he responds, given that he hasn’t been in spots like that with regularity up to this point in his career, never mind coming in the cold against the best defense in the league.
Prediction: Texans 24-20
