The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key New England Patriots players heading into their matchup with the Atlanta Falcons to help you craft a winning lineup.
Drake Maye, QB
Drake Maye is averaging 21.7 fantasy points this season, a number that ranks favorably to what Joe Burrow (19.6) and Josh Allen (17.4) did through the first eight games of their second season.
Yes, he’s already flirting with that company.
He’s run for 50+ yards in consecutive games, thrown for multiple scores in six of his past seven, and ramped up his efficiency in a way that none of us could have possibly dreamed (6.7 YPA last season, 9.0 this season).
Before last week, I’d call this a tough matchup, but the Dolphins got whatever they wanted against the Dirty Birds over the weekend, and I think we can agree that the Patriots have a few more levers at their disposal than Miami.
I still think the Falcons have an above-average defense, but I also think Maye is approaching the elite tier when it comes to fantasy signal-callers, and that tier is immune to matchup downgrades.
It’s not out of the question for Maye to be fantasy’s best QB this week, and that means you’re playing him with all sorts of confidence in season-long.
For DFS, I’m more intrigued by the cheaper and more stackable options at the position, given some matchups. Nailing the QB position is going to be a must in the Daily streets this week with Lamar Jackson, Dak Prescott, Kyler Murray, and Jayden Daniels all off the main slate: if you think Maye keeps rolling, you swallow the price tag and work around it.
Rhamondre Stevenson, RB
The Falcons struggled to slow the mighty Dolphins last week, so I guess you could talk yourself into Rhamondre Stevenson taking advantage of his role. Still, we have a reasonable sample size showing that he cannot do that.
Over his past four games, not a single one of Stevenson’s 57 touches has gained more than 17 yards, and he’s failed to catch more than two balls in five straight games.
In short, he’s done nothing to earn his coaching staff’s trust, yet he can’t seem to lose his bellcow role (over 70% snap share in three straight).
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I don’t like the projection, but until we see something different, the 16 touches per game he’s been averaging over the past three games seems here to stay. Due to the surrounding matchups, even I can’t knock Stevenson out of the RB2 conversation: there just aren’t enough lead backs to justify benching New England’s bellcow that appears to have a bulletproof role that doesn’t hinge on his performance.
That said, we are looking at a toe injury that has been an issue at practice this week. I’d keep an eye on this situation with reports swirling about New England’s interest in adding RB depth at the deadline. This game is in the first wave on Sunday, so you have pivot options if needed.
TreVeyon Henderson, RB
TreVeyon Henderson more than doubled the rushing output of Stevenson last week on fewer touches. Still, he played under 22% of the offensive snaps for a second straight week, and with New England continuing to rattle off victories, this coaching staff is starting to profile as the superstitious type.
I understand it for fans. If my team wins because I wore a shirt, by all means, lean into it. I think we are all rational enough people to understand that my clothing doesn’t impact play.
But for this coaching staff to lean into a lesser running back to keep the vibes steady seems odd. It’s like eating ice cream for dinner every night, getting a clean report from the dentist, and assuming that the ice cream habit helped fuel that positive check-up.
Your dental health and the success of this Patriots team are happening despite the bad habit; quitting it would only strengthen the future outlook.
But no, we can’t rock the boat.
On the first drive last week, Stevenson had zero yards on three carries while Henderson had multiple gains of 12+ yards. If we had any hope of a hot-hand situation, we would have seen a proof of concept last week, but that’s clearly not in the cards.
Henderson did lose a fumble in garbage time last week, but if this team remains consistent, its RBs won’t be punished for a lack of ball security.
This is a frustrating situation for fantasy managers because we think we’re reading it correctly, but aren’t getting the desired results.
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I’d love to project change, but I can’t. Not at this point. Henderson is off my flex radar … provided that Stevenson (toe) plays. Should that not be the case, Henderson shifts right into the lead role and holds RB2 value for this week.
In this situation, the most important note would be his potential to earn work moving forward. We know Stevenson is seemingly unable to lose his role in on-field production, but if he’s watching the rookie show out, we have a chance to get optimal usage in the final two months.
DeMario Douglas, WR
Maye has been better than anyone thought he’d be this season. That’s not to suggest that he’ll decline, but if he’s functioning at the peak of his current powers and DeMario Douglas has yet to catch more than three passes in a game, shouldn’t that tell us something?
His one grab against the Browns last week was a fun one (44-yard gain), but this is a 5’8″ player whose NFL skill is to work open in quick windows.
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That’s not something Maye is looking for, and with the wins flowing in, I can’t imagine we’ll see this zebra change his stripes. Douglas’s profile doesn’t come with the type of floor or ceiling that makes much sense rostering, so I’d be inclined to cut ties and either look for a receiver who sees a handful of looks per game or secure a handcuff running back who is an injury away from being viable.
Kayshon Boutte, WR
Kayshon Boutte does it again!
These single-play weeks are racking up, and while he’s never going to be a comfortable play (22 targets in his past seven games), there is no denying that Maye trusts him when afforded time to throw downfield.
Touchdown Lengths This Season
- 39 yards (Sunday)
- 39 yards
- 29 yards
- 25 yards
- 16 yards
Of course, it’s not sustainable, but the odds are that you’re not asking it to be.
If you’re backed into a corner, you’re begging for a single play to make your day, and that’s exactly what Boutte is offering. His 17.7-aDOT ranks among the elite, and with his snap percentage up for a third straight week, this is the dart to throw if you’re in a very specific spot.
Stefon Diggs, WR
Stefon Diggs found the end zone for the first time this season last week on a one-yard slant that he’ll cash in whenever given the opportunity.
The score was good to see, but the need for it scares me.
Maye is spreading the ball around at a high level, and that is great for New England but bad for us. Boutte is making plays down the field weekly, and Douglas gets involved on occasion, not to mention the RBs/TEs soaking up looks.
Diggs is my favorite of this bunch: that doesn’t mean he’s a lineup lock, especially should he draw shadow coverage this week. The veteran receiver has been held under 35 receiving yards in four games this season, and with scoring equity low (one end-zone target on his 192 routes this season), the risk is at least equal to the potential reward.
He sits just outside of my top 30 this week, next to names like Quentin Johnston and Xavier Worthy that are carrying plenty of risk themselves.
Hunter Henry, TE
Henry scored a touchdown in the third quarter. Following a jet sweep, the Pats faked a similar action, rolled out Maye from the seven-yard line, and put Henry three yards in front of him on a half of the field that was close to vacated.
It was great to see, but it was also all we saw of the tight end.
Like, literally.
He ran 25 routes in the win over the Browns, and that was his only target. I want to believe in him because I don’t trust the secondary receivers on this offense and am buying any Maye stock I can, but with 15 targets during this five-game win streak, the floor is just so low every week.
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Henry is a priority streamer for me. That is, he’s in the streamer class, but the type that I’ll hold onto until I’m really sold on another option as opposed to committing to the weekly matchup-driven add/drop.
It may sound like a distinction without a difference, but there’s a level of feel in the TE game for those of us without a top-tier option at the position, and I’ll take my chances with 25+ routes attached to an upward-trending offense.
For now.