The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key New England Patriots players heading into their matchup with the Tennessee Titans to help you craft a winning lineup.
Drake Maye, QB
Every week Drake Maye laces them up, I get a little more impressed.
In New Orleans last week, he had a 5-yard completion and a 20-yard run in the same game for the first time in his career. He didn’t throw a pick for a third straight game and has multiple TD passes in four of his past five.
What can’t baby Josh Allen do?
The advanced metrics are what I didn’t think would be at this level this season, let alone in October. For the season, he’s 39-of-52 for 440 yards and five touchdowns against the blitz, numbers that highlight his ability to diagnose and dominate.
The second-year QB is matchup-proof and a real threat to be a top-5 producer at the position for the remainder of the season (not that you need to be “matchup-proof” to beat the Titans, but I thought you could use the reassurance with some more difficult matchups on the horizon).
You’re welcome.
Rhamondre Stevenson, RB
Are we really victory-lapping a week without a fumble for Rhamondre Stevenson?
If so, yippee!
Forgive me if I set the bar a bit higher.
The veteran running back, for reasons unknown, continues to sit atop this depth chart. His next 8+ yard gain in October will be his first, and he’s yet to reach 55 yards on the ground in a game this season.
I truly think the Patriots are limiting some of Maye’s developmental potential by not giving the explosive TreVeyon Henderson a chance to earn more work. Still, because they are winning games, it’s hard to envision much changing.
Stevenson is a lead back, for now, in the NFL, and that means you roster him, but there’s no way to feel great about starting him, no matter the matchup, after turning 20 carries over the past two weeks into 32 yards.
New England has rattled off three wins, and their only lineup lock is their quarterback.
TreVeyon Henderson, RB
For the third time this season, Henderson was on the field for under 30% of New England’s offensive snaps, and for the fourth time, Stevenson didn’t fumble.
That’s just not a great combination of events for those of us begging for the former Buckeye to be unleashed. I’m not giving up on the long-term hope, but we are well past the days of considering him for starting lineups.
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Maybe this cushy matchup is his breakout spot. It could happen. That said, it would appear obvious that Stevenson will get the bulk of the work, so in order for Henderson to take advantage of this great matchup, we need the starter to first fail in it.
Hold and bench.
I hate these situations.
DeMario Douglas, WR
DeMario Douglas entered Week 6 averaging under 10 yards per catch, but because this is Maye’s world and we are all just living in it, he was on the right side of a 53-yard touchdown (40 air yards).
The highlight was fun (12.3-point play for a player who had 16.4 points through five weeks), but that’s all it was. Outside of the splash play, he caught just two passes against the Saints and still has just 10 catches on his resume this season.
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If I’m trying to get exposure to this offense, it’s through a player I believe has more scoring equity, like Hunter Henry or Kayshon Boutte.
Kayshon Boutte, WR
You don’t come to PFSN for me to tell you that Boutte had a big day against the Saints or that New Orleans is terrible, which resulted in some inflated numbers.
You know those things. You know that we are not expecting Boutte to go 5-93-2 every week moving forward.
What you might be less aware of, however, is the thread to pull.
This was Boutte’s second big effort of the season, and he’s much more involved when opponents struggle to create pressure around Maye.
Through six weeks, he owns a 7% pressured target share and a 15.4% non-pressured target share. Those numbers aren’t overwhelming in either split, but if you are going to roll the dice, it needs to be in a spot where you expect the second-year signal caller to be kept clear.
Remaining New England schedule:
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Titans: 24th in pressure rate
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Browns: 15th
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Falcons: 10th
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Buccaneers: 6th
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Jets: 31st
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Bengals: 28th
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Giants: 18th
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Bills: 2nd
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Ravens: 30th
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Jets: 31st
Boutte’s two big games this season came against the Raiders (23rd) and Saints (27th). I think this may be more than just a flash in the pan, but you need to be thoughtful in your use.
Stefon Diggs, WR
After back-to-back 100-yard games, Stefon Diggs’ stat line fell flat against the Saints, earning just three targets and picking up 28 yards in the victory.
It’ll be OK.
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You didn’t draft Diggs thinking you had a weekly asset, and you probably don’t, but he’s going to be in the mix, and as Maye continues to improve exponentially, the door is certainly open for more.
The veteran wide receiver had a big catch late in the game taken off the board due to a questionable OPI call, and while the yards didn’t count, it was good to see Maye looking his way in a big spot.
Vintage Diggs probably never graces an NFL field again, but in this offense without a clear-cut top option, he’s got a chance to be a flex you feel reasonably good about consistently.
I’ll have him ranked higher when I project more volume for this passing game: they aren’t going to be seven-point road favorites too often.
Hunter Henry, TE
The Bills, the Packers, the banged-up 49ers. We’ve been experiencing the backfield committee revolution for a while now, and we are seeing more and more teams capable of winning games with a democratic approach to target hierarchy.
The Patriots seem poised to join that list.
Henry has had his moments, but so has Boutte. Diggs has looked like the prime version of himself for the better part of a month now, and the second you forget about Douglas, he’s burning you for a 53-yard score.
Maye is progressing faster than even the most bullish fans would have expected, which has left the Pats in a weird spot: they have a quarterback ready to win now without a win-now supporting cast.
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That’s not a bad problem to have, by the way. Not for New England, anyway. For us, it’s a pain. Maybe Diggs is the answer, but for now, the question of who the top target for Maye is changes weekly.
The wheel will land on Henry at times, but it just hasn’t lately (three straight games under five targets). If you want to hitch your TE wagon to Maye and stick out duds like Sunday (3-27-0 from Henry) in the hope that you’ll be there for the big games, I won’t say you’re crazy.
The problem is if you’re expecting more. I don’t expect any pass catcher in this offense to be consistent: that’s just an easier profile to deal with at the tight end position, where weekly production is hard to find outside of the top two tiers.
