The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key New England Patriots players heading into their matchup with the Carolina Panthers to help you craft a winning lineup.
Drake Maye, QB
Drake Maye is averaging seven rush attempts per game this season, which is not bad for a player who hit that number just once as a rookie.
The Patriots are interested in unlocking that part of their franchise QB, and who are we to complain?
That threat has opened up things a bit as a passer: Maye has multiple passing scores in consecutive games for just the second time in his career (a top-7 QB in each of those weeks).
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The only flaw, I guess, that could be poked in this Week 4 profile is New England’s stated goal of getting their running backs more confident after a three-fumble game. If the home team is dominating, could this be a 25-pass, three-rush sort of afternoon from Maye?
It’s possible, but I generally guard against assuming we know exactly how a game will play out.
Maye is my QB7 for Week 4.
Rhamondre Stevenson, RB
Rhamondre Stevenson has struggled with ball security for a while now, and after he put his second carry on the deck last week, my TreVeyon Henderson alarm started beeping.
A dull beep, but it was there. It could be heard.
Nothing really changed for the Patriots in the short term. They went about their way for the remainder of the first half, even trusting their lead back with a fourth-and-short, but when Stevenson lost a red-zone carry, that dull beep turned into an impossible-to-ignore roar.
Stevenson fumbled six times in 2021, losing three of them and causing us to lose our minds when he coughed up one this summer. Antonio Gibson saw his role increase for a minute on the drive following Stevenson’s second turnover of the week, but then he caught the “fumbleitis” and gave away one of his own.
The coaching staff was clear following the game that Stevenson is an essential part of this team and that they need to restore his confidence.
We’ve been waiting for this moment, and the time seems finally here. Of course, the Pats could elect to use this ideal matchup to help Stevenson get his mojo back, but I will lean on the most dangerous assumption we can make instead.
Rational coaching.
At the very least, even if you aren’t ready to anoint Henderson as a star, you can’t return to Stevenson as even a flex this week. I’d rather plug in Bhayshul Tuten if we are picking committee backs because I at least like his trajectory and the short-yardage role.
TreVeyon Henderson, RB
The stage is set.
The Patriots host a Panthers team allowing a league-high 5.2 yards per RB carry since the beginning of last season, and their dynamic rookie has as much of a chance to earn future work as we could ask for.
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New England running backs, not named Henderson, couldn’t hold onto the ball last week. While the postgame discourse centered on the value of Stevenson remaining involved, his actions were loud following his second lost fumble of the afternoon.
- Henderson: 26 offensive snaps (9 rushes)
- Antonio Gibson: 6 (2 rushes, 1 fumble)
- Stevenson: 5 (0 rushes)
Henderson has 30 touches this season, and while we’ve yet to see an actual splash play, some of the cuts and wiggle that made him special in college have been on display.
He’s caught all 11 of his targets this season. After the coaching staff admitted that a Stevenson wheel route was initially designed for Henderson, I’m confident there is a package of creative plays to get this explosive talent in space.
He and Omarion Hampton have significant opportunities in front of them this week, and both rank inside my top 20 at the position as a result.
DeMario Douglas, WR
Entering draft season, I pick a boring receiver that I want to add to the end of my roster every year. These picks never get much attention in the room, but if it’s Week 9 and I’m battling through three injuries and two bye weeks, you know how good 10 PPR points sounds?
DeMario Douglas and Wan’Dale Robinson were my two targets in that mold this summer, and to say the results have been drastically different would be an egregious understatement.
This season, Douglas has turned 13 targets into 13 yards.
I was not under the assumption that Maye would be an overly consistent passer this season, especially early on, but he has proven to be. He’s consistently lacked interest in getting Douglas the ball with any sort of space.
Fortunately, that’s become obvious before bye weeks start, and I need to reach for depth. Douglas should be nowhere near lineups or rosters for that matter, right now, even in deep PPR formats.
Kayshon Boutte, WR
Kayshon Bouttee earned eight targets on 44 routes in Week 1, and that was a fun way to start the season, but four targets on 56 routes since is representative of the peaks and valleys that come with a developmental QB.
Maye is a work in progress. He’s talented, but not flawless, and without a bona fide top target, these crazy production swings are a part of betting on this offense.
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For me, no pass catcher on this roster will be a must-start at any point this season. Hunter Henry had the big game last week, and Douglas could have a 10-catch match at some point.
Counting on players like this every week isn’t wise, but in uncertain situations like this, I have no problem going this way in a pinch, knowing that targets are widely available weekly.
Stefon Diggs, WR
There’s no one in this Patriots offense I feel great about weekly, and a 31-year-old Stefon Diggs is no exception.
The veteran receiver has seen his target, catch, and yardage count decline each week this season (57 yards in Week 1, 55 yards since), and I’m unsure of the path back to fantasy relevance.
Henry and Boutte are the only every-down pass catchers in this offense, with Diggs fighting with Mack Hollins, Douglas, and Austin Hooper for opportunities. Toss in the likely increase in usage for the versatile Henderson, and it’s hard to project Diggs for five targets, and even more difficult to project him to do much with the looks he does earn.
I’m not stopping you if you want to cut your losses now and build the backend of your roster more strategically.
Hunter Henry, TE
Henry looked great last week. After catching just five passes through two weeks, the 30-year-old hauled in 8-of-11 targets against the Steelers for 90 yards and a score, likely deciding your matchup if he was involved.
The score was encouraging: A five-yard strike from Maye in the face of a heavy blitz. Throughout the game, I was impressed. A chunk play late in the first half started with Henry in the backfield and running something of a modified wheel route.
The creativity was great, and the connection with Maye seems to be growing. The matchup this week with the Panthers is hardly one to fear, and that is why Henry is sitting just inside of my top 10 at the position for Week 4.
But be careful.
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Last season, we saw as many Henry performances as a top 10 tight end as we did weeks outside of the top 35 (five). The Maye can taketh away just as fast as he can giveth, so tread lightly. I like this spot, but it wouldn’t surprise me if this were a conservative approach that resulted in a low-pass attempt game.
I like Henry more this week than I did for the rest of the season. New England’s target hierarchy feels like Russian Roulette, and while I think Henry is on the right side of things now, I’m not committing to the idea that he’s a lineup lock for the next three months.
