The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key New England Patriots players heading into their matchup with the Miami Dolphins to help you craft a winning lineup.
Drake Maye, QB
If you haven’t heard, this kid is good.
Drake Maye put his name on a list with Lamar Jackson and Peyton Manning in the first half last week during their demolition of the Jets and finished with 1.44 fantasy points per pass, the best qualified passing game since Jackson in Week 17 of 2023.
His skill set (from deep ball touch to athletic feel) is impressive for any player, never mind one on an upward trajectory. Maye has completed a pass with 25+ air yards attached to it in 11 of his past 12 games, and while the big plays are tough to count on, his touch on those passes appears to be generational in the way that peak Russell Wilson’s were.
Looking ahead, it stands to reason that the run game will give this team more balance over time. TreVeyon Henderson is pretty clearly the future of the backfield, and with some NFL reps under his belt, those highlight plays are going to become more of a weekly occurrence.
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His gain is Maye’s gain. That may not be your initial thought, but what if I told you that Maye is averaging 9.6 yards per play-action pass? Or that he has 10 TDs and zero interceptions on those passes.
You can’t put him ahead of Josh Allen, but any ranking from QB2 to QB6 is plenty reasonable for 2026. He won’t come cheap, obviously, but there are no red flags that make instant regression something to project.
Rhamondre Stevenson, RB
The Patriots had a division title in their sights last week with the one-seed also in play, and they gave three of their four RB carries to Rhamondre Stevenson (33 yards gained, highlighted by a 24-yarder).
We assumed that they drafted TreVeyon Henderson to take over this backfield, but it’s been clear throughout the season that they never intended to hand the keys over to a single back.
Week 17 Snap Data
- TreVeyon Henderson: 50% snaps, 19 touches (four red zone), 8.2 PPR points
- Stevenson: 48.4% snaps, 13 touches (two red zone), 27.2 PPR points
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I’d expect these types of shenanigans to continue this weekend and through the postseason, but I have a hard time seeing it sustain through next season. Henderson is unlikely to get the 65-70% role that we are begging for, but a 60/40 split makes for a logical projection and will leave Stevenson as more of a lower-end flex than a reliable weekly option in most formats.
This is an offense to bet on, and in that vein, rostering Stevenson makes sense, but standalone value will be a tough sell.
TreVeyon Henderson, RB
We see NFL teams do this, and it’s maddening.
Is there any question as to who the leader of this backfield is going to be during the peak Drake Maye years?
For me, there’s not. It’s TreVeyon Henderson with a bullet. That said, Rhamondre Stevenson has at least one year left on his contract and up to three if the team doesn’t opt out after 2026.
Regardless of the salary mechanics, Henderson is going to be an asset in 2026, but one that has his upside capped by the roster around him. During his up-and-down rookie season, he’s produced 15.9% over PPR expectations, averaging just under one point per touch.
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The difference between him being a fantasy starter and a fantasy star is his role in the passing game. Based on his college resume and the opportunities he was afforded this season, we know he is capable, but with the Pats chasing the one seed, he’s gone five straight without 20 receiving yards and only has one target over his past two games.
I can’t explain that. This isn’t an offense that is loaded with pass-catching options, so I’m optimistic that he can grow into a 50+ catch role next season. Still, there is some risk in assuming such a step will be taken, especially given Stevenson’s status as a co-starter rather than a complement.
Stefon Diggs, WR
Just about everything worked for New England on Sunday, and that meant a consecutive 100-yard effort for Stefon Diggs, the second time he’s pulled that off this season.
He looks healthy and bought in, a version of the veteran that can retain flex appeal in an offense that is obviously trending in the right direction. That said, he’s played under 60% of the snaps in five straight games, and you’re threading a thin needle by consistently counting on a part-time player with a QB that is clearly comfortable in spreading the ball around.
With just one end zone look over his past six, Diggs needs to post high target-to-route numbers to pay off, a skill that is at risk of evaporating with each passing season.
My exposure to him in the back half of drafts this summer will hinge on the development of this offense. If Kyle Williams takes a big step in Year 2 or TreVeyon Henderson turns into a featured back that is given 18+ touches per game, the math on Diggs becomes difficult to swallow.
But if we don’t get those glowing reports, and he can be penciled in for 100-ish targets, I’ll scoop him up after the first 36 receivers are off the board as a way to get a piece of the Patriot pie.
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Hunter Henry, TE
Hunter Henry is averaging 27.8 routes per game this season, and if that role sticks, I could talk myself into sliding him into the backend of the TE1 tier for 2026 with Drake Maye heading an offense that seems destined for big things for years to come and no clear-cut target hierarchy.
Austin Hooper got the tight end touchdown on the first drive last week against the Jets, and while that left Henry managers wanting more, the season-long value has been there in the past (6+ TD receptions in four seasons, including two of his past three).
He’s not much of a threat to push for a high reception total, so you’d need him to run hot in a Dallas Goedert sort of way to spike, but this is the type of offensive environment that makes that outcome possible.
