The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key New England Patriots players heading into their matchup with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to help you craft a winning lineup.
Drake Maye, QB
That’s now four straight games with a 35+ yard completion and 7+ rush attempts for Drake Maye as he has established himself as a lineup lock that can produce against any type of defense.
We saw some of his youth on display last week, as evidenced by a bad fumble that resulted in a tight game with the Falcons at halftime, as opposed to the Patriots laying down the hammer.
Those moments are going to happen, but the good (great) moments have far outweighed those learning moments, and that is why New England’s franchise QB is a fantasy asset that you can get your season on.
Some of Maye’s football maturity was on display last week as he diagnosed a red zone third-down situation where he could have forced the ball into a tight window, but instead opted to move the chains with his legs.
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Little moments like that are taking place every week in addition to the splash moments that make the highlight shows.
I still think he’s a WR1 away from flirting with the top tier at the position, but he’s the next best thing, and given the price you paid this summer, that puts you in a position to compete at the highest level.
Can you capitalize on the value you already have and build around it?
Rhamondre Stevenson, RB
The toe injury resulted in Rhamondre Stevenson missing practice every day last week, and he never seemed close to returning to play.
The running game didn’t exactly thrive in his absence (33 carries for 110 yards), but New England did commit to TreVeyon Henderson for the first time this season, and that could prove to be something they explore as they continue to overachieve.
Given the practice habits of last week, I’m not labeling Stevenson as a viable option this week. I’ll change that train of thought if we get reports to the contrary, but this coaching staff has made it clear that they value what he brings to the table, and with a 7-2 record, why force him back?
Henderson is a viable RB2 in my current rankings, considering that his savvy in the pass game can enable him to score 12-15 points against a defense like the Bucs, which is as good as any in the sport at clogging the middle.
TreVeyon Henderson, RB
I really hope we didn’t miss our chance.
Rhamondre Stevenson missed last week with a toe injury and opened the door for TreVeyon Henderson to play 75% of the snaps. He got 18 touches against a Falcons defense that coughed up 34 points, at home, to the Dolphins the week prior.
With that information alone, we’d expect a peak Rico Dowdle-type of game where the coaching staff can’t ignore the potential.
We didn’t get it.
He was fortunate to finish the week as RB15, benefiting from six targets. That’s, of course, part of the math in loving his profile, but 3.9 yards per carry without a single one of the attempts gaining more than eight yards?
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- Henderson: 75% snaps, 29 routes, 3 red zone touches (18 total)
- Terrell Jennings: 25% snaps, 4 routes, 3 red zone touches (12 total)
- Consecutive red-zone carries in Q2 (result: 3-yard TD)
Should Stevenson miss another game, I’m dialing back my expectations. I thought he had RB1 upside if given the lead opportunity, but that’s not the case in this matchup and might not be the case anyway.
The Bucs are stingy between the tackles, but a couple of bailout targets, and Henderson ends up this week right where he was last week.
DeMario Douglas, WR
I’m sorry if you missed DeMario Douglas’ 20 PPR points last week, but chasing that production is dangerous.
We are looking at a receiver who stands 5’8″ and averages under 11 yards per catch for his career, but somehow has a 40+ yard reception in consecutive games.
I’m here for the idea that the Drake Maye tide can raise all boats, but trading volume for chunk plays doesn’t seem like the best option in this instance.
Maybe the Kayshon Boutte injury will open up some usage (the per-route numbers are encouraging). If not, Douglas is a part-time player experiencing an unsustainable run of success.
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For the season, he’s been on the field for 29.5% of New England’s offensive snaps, and I don’t care how good you believe Maye to be: a sub-30% role is far more risk than I’m willing to plug into my lineup.
For me, he’s Parker Washington, but with a slightly lesser role, which has him ranking outside my top 40 at the position.
Kayshon Boutte, WR
A hamstring injury sidelined Kayshon Boutte during the game, and that sort of injury is the last thing streamers want to see.
Boutte is averaging 18.7 yards per catch this season and has scored on 21.7% of his receptions. Neither of those is sustainable, and as Drake Maye continues to grow, he’s spreading the ball around and making target projections in New England a pain.
I understand that he’s scored four times in his past three healthy games, but I’m comfortable moving on. This Maye system is democratic in nature, and with a soft-tissue injury at play, I worry that we see the version of Boutte we saw before the recent scoring binge (six catches for 89 yards and zero scores over a three-game stretch) moving forward.
There are a dozen players with this basic skill set on your waiver wire. You can find your swing-for-the-fences spot elsewhere.
Stefon Diggs, WR
Stefon Diggs has scored in consecutive weeks after not finding paydirt once in the first seven weeks, but the volume has fallen off the table, and that means he currently carries more projectable risk than reward.
Drake Maye is developing almost too fast for those of us with Diggs rostered.
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The math leading up to this season stemmed from Diggs being the clear-cut WR1 and thus absorbing 8-10 targets per week. Instead, we’ve seen the second-year QB not hesitate to spread the ball around, and that has Diggs averaging 4.8 targets per game over the past month.
We are looking at a player you can flex weekly when your roster breaks a certain way, but one that you should never feel obligated to play.
Hunter Henry, TE
Hunter Henry hasn’t seen an end zone target in four straight games and hasn’t hit double-digit expected points at any point during this six-game win streak.
This is what the streaming tier is.
Henry is attached to a good offense and has been on the field for at least three-quarters of their snaps in eight of nine games. That’s going to land him near the top of my streamers’ range at the position, but we’ve seen Drake Maye be plenty comfortable in taking what the defense gives him.
The Bucs own the 11th-lowest opponent aDOT this season, and that’s the type of matchup where Henry can ugly his way to 10 PPR points. He’s currently my TE12, ranked just ahead of other TEs with young QBs who are carving out their space in the NFL (Theo Johnson and T.J. Hockenson).
