The New England Patriots enter Week 1 with several intriguing fantasy football options that present both opportunities and risks for managers. With a young quarterback under center and a revamped offensive approach, the team’s skill position players face varying levels of uncertainty heading into their matchup against Las Vegas.
Fantasy football owners will need to carefully weigh the upside potential against the inherent risks when making their start-sit decisions for these Patriots players.
Rhamondre Stevenson, RB
There’s a reason New England invested in the running back position in April, as the team looks to build a winner on the fly around Drake Maye and his rookie contract. Rhamondre Stevenson’s explosion and versatility have tailed off in a meaningful way during his four years as a pro, and the Patriots’ patience seems to be wearing thin.
PFSN Elusive Rating by season:
- 2021: 38.3%
- 2022: 33.8%
- 2023: 28.2%
- 2024: 27.1%
5+ Yard rush rate by season:
- 2021: 40.6%
- 2022: 37.6%
- 2023: 36.5%
- 2024: 32.4%
While the Raiders and their 21st-ranked red zone defense from last season don’t seem intimidating, Stevenson doesn’t profile as the type of back worth starting unless he’s getting the full workload. I’m not entering this season assuming he is assured of that role.
The Patriots FIRST TD of the 2024 regular season.
Rhamondre Stevenson. 🔥🔥 pic.twitter.com/RM3nC5BPdt
— Pats Buzz (@PatsBuzz) September 8, 2024
Perhaps I’m wrong, and Stevenson will be the workhorse until proven otherwise. However, a fumble in early August practices didn’t inspire confidence that his ball security woes are a thing of the past. I’m not writing off a 27-year-old back who the organization is comfortable with, even if they aren’t overwhelmed by his performance.
If loyalty wins out in the early going, I’ll pivot next week, but I’m not opening the season projecting Stevenson to get enough work to be a viable option in this spot.
TreVeyon Henderson, RB
Did you know that since the start of 2023, only 22 players have more carries than TreVeyon Stevenson, yet 52 have more carries of 15 yards or more? Stevenson’s fumbling problems in 2024 were highlighted as the reason for a future role reduction, but they were more of a final straw than the root cause.
As a rookie, Stevenson posted an impressive 38.3% PFSN Elusive Rating, a rate that has declined every year since, reaching 27.1% in 2024. The Patriots have every reason to look for other options as they try to build around rookie quarterback Drake Maye. New England is contractually tied to Stevenson for another season after this one before they can move on in 2027.
READ MORE: Soppe’s Week 1 Fantasy Football Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em: Analysis for Every Player in Every Game
Meanwhile, Henderson turned heads all summer, and his kickoff return for a touchdown in the preseason only fanned those flames. The stage appears set for him to become the lead back in the offense sooner rather than later, but the question is how quickly he will assume control. My guess is it will happen before the end of September, but probably not in this first game. Henderson’s modest touch projection places him in the flex tier of my running back rankings for this favorable matchup.
While that’s not ideal, he represents a risk worth taking over receivers whose best days are likely behind them, like the Cooper Kupp, Deebo Samuel, and Stefon Diggs of the world.
Kyle Williams, WR
There’s a lot to like about the situation that Kyle Williams finds himself in, and that’s why you drafted him. He garnered third-round draft capital in April and joins an offense without much proven talent at the receiver position and a franchise quarterback seemingly in place.
I can get behind going this direction. Long-term.
In the short term, your roster will be awfully tough if Williams is on your radar. Yes, I’m playing him over me in my league of “Kyle’s”, but unless you’re in such a league, the pride of Washington State, who had six games with under 60 receiving yards last season, is sitting on your bench until we see some proof of concept at the professional level.
Stefon Diggs, WR
Diggs’ aDOT has dipped from 11.9 yards in 2022 to 10.8 in 2023 and 8.3 in 2024. That’s not uncommon regarding how a skill set aligns with the age curve at the receiver position, but it is concerning.
DeMario Douglas is the designated short-area winner with a feel for this offense, and Drake Maye was the 23rd-ranked passer on short throws as a rookie. For Diggs to succeed at a usable level, he either needs to reverse the course of Father Time and ramp up his aDOT or co-exists with Douglas as a chain mover in an offense with a QB who has yet to show he can expose defenses on those quick routes.
Thanks, but no thanks.
The Raiders had the eighth-highest opponent pass TD rate last season (5.2% of attempts). If my fade on Diggs is going to be wrong, it could be obvious as soon as Week 1, but I’m comfortable in taking my chances in betting against a 31-year-old WR who is on his third team in as many years and didn’t exactly have a clean offseason.
