Patrick Mahomes enters the 2026 fantasy football season coming off of a late-season ACL tear, but virtually every health report out of Kansas City has been a positive one this summer. At this point, his recovery is no longer the primary concern for fantasy managers, something we would have never guessed to be the case when he went down.
Should I Draft Patrick Mahomes in Fantasy Football?
The real concern is what his ultimate production path looks like in this iteration of the Chiefs’ offense. Over 25% of his fantasy points came with his legs last season, and relying on that level of rushing production isn’t statistically sound.
I’d say that based on his career norms, even if last season didn’t end the way it did with the severe knee injury. But the ACL was torn, and this is a soon-to-be 31-year-old quarterback playing for a franchise that is strictly interested in winter wins. I would be genuinely surprised if his rushing abilities were fully unleashed prior to the postseason, and that lands me on the skeptical side of this profile.
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If the rushing numbers regress as expected, his passing volume and efficiency need to carry the load, but the recent trends there are also troubling. Back in 2022, Mahomes averaged 8.1 YPA. However, he has posted no more than 7.1 YPA since, and he is now staring down three consecutive seasons with under 30 touchdown passes.
Looking at his current weapons, Rashee Rice is a real target earner when on the field, but he’s the only pass catcher I truly trust in this offense this year. Yes, Travis Kelce is still there, but asking him to threaten defenses without support outside of Rice is not something I’m comfortable doing.
The offseason addition of Kenneth Walker is undeniably good for the real-life win equity of the Chiefs, but it is not good for the fantasy potential of their QB. Draft Mahomes cautiously as a low-end QB1, but understand his days as a locked-in elite fantasy cheat code are likely behind him.
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I haven’t made this click much this offseason as there always seems to be a manager who is willing to pay for his resume more than I am. I’ll let them take on that risk and instead take advantage of the depth of the position this season instead of paying a premium for a name-brand entity.
Kyle Soppe’s QB Fantasy Rankings 2026
- Josh Allen | BUF
- Drake Maye | NE
- Joe Burrow | CIN
- Lamar Jackson | BAL
- Jayden Daniels | WAS
- Caleb Williams | CHI
- Justin Herbert | LAC
- Jalen Hurts | PHI
- Jaxson Dart | NYG
- Trevor Lawrence | JAX
- Dak Prescott | DAL
- Bo Nix | DEN
- Patrick Mahomes II | KC
- Brock Purdy | SF
- Matthew Stafford | LAR
- Jared Goff | DET
- Kyler Murray | MIN
- Jordan Love | GB
- Baker Mayfield | TB
- Tyler Shough | NO
- Malik Willis | MIA
- Daniel Jones | IND
- C.J. Stroud | HOU
- Sam Darnold | SEA
- Bryce Young | CAR
- Jacoby Brissett | ARI
- Cam Ward | TEN
- Aaron Rodgers | PIT
- Fernando Mendoza | LV
- Justin Fields | KC
- Kirk Cousins | LV
- Geno Smith | NYJ
