Should I Draft Patrick Mahomes? Fantasy Outlook for the Chiefs QB in 2025

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes spent the first five years of his career lighting up the scoreboard and dominating fantasy football. Over the past two years, he has become more of a game manager, making the superstar plays when necessary. Should fantasy managers ignore Mahomes for fantasy purposes for the first time? Or is this the cheapest Mahomes will ever be?

Patrick Mahomes Fantasy Outlook

It’s exceedingly likely the best season of Mahomes’ career will end up being his first one as a starter. In 2018, Mahomes took the league by storm, averaging 26.7 fantasy points per game en route to an overall QB1 finish.

For the next four years, Mahomes was a consensus top-three quarterback, never averaging lower than 20.7 ppg. Naturally, when Mahomes finally had a down year in 2023, fantasy managers didn’t sweat it. Surely, Mahomes would return to his usual self after his 18.4 points per game that season. Instead, Mahomes did the exact same thing again, averaging 18.4 ppg.

Now, it’s become a thing. Mahomes’ ADP took a minor hit ahead of 2024 fantasy drafts. This year, he’s down at QB6, the lowest mark of his career since his first year as a starter.

We know Mahomes still has the talent to be an elite QB1. Every once in a while, he reminded everyone because he had to. But we’re talking about a player who, in 2020, for example, had 13 games of 20+ fantasy points, with five of those games being over 30 (including one 40 burger).

Last season, Mahomes didn’t even crack 20 fantasy points until Week 9. He had a total of four games over 20 fantasy points and none over 30.

Patrick Mahomes has one (1) game with more than 3 passing touchdowns since 2022 pic.twitter.com/7FAwiaRftL

— Davis Mattek (@DavisMattek) May 7, 2025

We can’t blame the departure of Tyreek Hill. Mahomes averaged 25.1 ppg in his first season without Hill, the second-best season of his career. However, it is fair to say his pass-catching corps left a bit to be desired.

Travis Kelce is clearly declining. Hollywood Brown was lost in the first preseason game. Mahomes himself took out Rashee Rice in Week 4. Naturally, the Chiefs had to shift their offensive game plan to do whatever was necessary to win. And the running game didn’t help much with Isiah Pacheco going down in Week 2.

Mahomes threw just 26 and 27 touchdowns each of the past two seasons. After averaging no fewer than 284 passing yards per game in his first five seasons, Mahomes has been at 261.4 and 245.5 the past two years.

Mahomes Still Has the Elite Upside

The tricky part of evaluating Mahomes is that we know the potential is there. The problem is he’s Patrick Mahomes, though. So, if you draft him, it isn’t easy to bench him if he’s not producing. That’s the situation fantasy managers faced last season as Mahomes went eight weeks without finishing higher than QB12 on the week.

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At the same time, when it came time for Mahomes to put on his cape and win games, he always got it done. The wizardry is still there. What if the Chiefs’ defense takes a step back this year and Mahomes has to be a superhero? That sixth-round ADP is going to look mighty foolish.

I have Mahomes ranked as my QB8. It’s a fair rank, but the fact that I have Baker Mayfield and Bo Nix ahead of him makes it unlikely I will ever end up with Mahomes. Either draft an elite QB in the second or third round, or wait and try and find this year’s Jayden Daniels in the later rounds.

Patrick Mahomes has finished as QB11 and QB12 in the last two seasons. The Chiefs have dinked and dunked their way through the season, relying on their defense to win close games. Despite the underwhelming performance, Mahomes doesn’t come at much of a discount, currently going as QB6 in fantasy football drafts.

Mason LeBeau’s Patrick Mahomes Fantasy Projection

Fantasy is a fickle thing. Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is undeniably the elite passer of this generation, but that hasn’t translated to fantasy over the past two seasons. While the Chiefs have continued to win games and be the NFL’s dominant force, Mahomes has disappointing returns. Finishing as the QB1 in 2022, his stock was at an all-time high, only for his volume and efficiency to dwindle as the Chiefs transformed into a slow, run-heavy offense. 

Mahomes had his worst fantasy finish as a starter in 2024 with career lows in yards and touchdowns. Of course, the Chiefs went 15-1 during that time and made their third straight Super Bowl, so nothing was exactly wrong. But nothing being wrong was the problem: there was no need to pass more, play faster, or change anything. 

It didn’t help that WR Rashee Rice went down early with an ACL injury, and age caught up to TE Travis Kelce, leaving just rookie WR Xavier Worthy as the only viable passing threat. 

That makes now the perfect time to take advantage of the dip. Mahomes hasn’t fallen much, but his QB6/7 price becomes far more reasonable in both 1QB and Superflex leagues. Rice returns, Worthy enters year two, and they’ll even have WR Hollywood Brown back, who also missed last season. 

More telling is that the Chiefs did little for their running backs, returning Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt in prominent roles. In a class filled with them, they didn’t select one until Brashard Smith in the seventh. 

The Chiefs tend to switch identities every few years, especially after losing a Super Bowl. After two seasons of a run-heavy attack, expect a return to form from Andy Reid and Mahomes as they relentlessly attack the air with their young, speedy receivers.