The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key Carolina Panthers players heading into their matchup with the New York Jets to help you craft a winning lineup.
Bryce Young, QB
Getting Tetairoa McMillan the first two touchdowns of his career was good to see, but there’s nothing to see here.
In home games against the porous Dolphins and Cowboys over the past two weeks, Bryce Young was intercepted in both games and cleared 200 yards through the air in neither. He had a chance to prove himself as a viable streamer, and that opportunity is now gone.
Young ran for 40 yards in the season opener against the Jags. But he’s picked up just 19 yards on the ground since, eliminating his chances of being even remotely interesting in streaming situations for standard-sized leagues.
Chuba Hubbard, RB
Chuba Hubbard had a total of two missed games over the two seasons prior, but this calf injury has now cost him consecutive games. Without him touching the practice field at all ahead of Week 6, it’s hard to imagine him returning to bellcow status in the short term.
Hubbard averaged 16.5 touches per game in September, a decline from the 19.5 he handled last season, but still more than enough work to make him a lineup staple.
At least, it was.
Courtesy of a receiving TD in both games, Hubbard was an RB1 in each of the first two weeks this season, but he hadn’t produced even RB2 numbers in the two games before this missed time.
Raw volume is a floor elevator, until it isn’t. Given the limitations of this passing game, Hubbard needs to excel at running through contact, as defenses are inclined to crowd the line of scrimmage.
Last season, Hubbard was great at that (3.46 yards per carry after contact), but that was well ahead of his previous career high (2.87,) and he’s struggled to get anywhere close to that level of success so far this season (2.57).
READ MORE: Chuba Hubbard Injury Update: What’s the Latest on the Panthers RB, and Will He Play in Week 7?
Rico Dowdle is deserving of more work, and I’m not sure how much usage Hubbard has to share before we label him as more of a liability than an asset.
Should he be cleared this weekend, I’ll have him labeled as a viable flex, not because I’m overly confident in him, but because this is a rare spot where game script shouldn’t work away from this run game.
Rico Dowdle, RB
Dowdle was like a UFC fighter after the Week 5 headline-grabbing stat line against the Dolphins: he seemed to care more about his next fight than the monster accomplishment (206 rush yards) he was fresh off of.
That “next fight” was with his former employer, and he posted a nearly identical stat line against them. Some called him brash for warning the Cowboys, but today, we just call him accurate.
He became the sixth player over the past decade with multiple 230+ yard games. Not the sixth to do it in consecutive weeks, the sixth with 2+ games like that in any capacity over that stretch.
As you’d expect, the others on that list are fantasy royalty: Derrick Henry, Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, Julio Jones, and Ja’Marr Chase.
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Hubbard’s absence (calf) is what has paved the way for this explosion, and while he didn’t practice last week, his status is TBD for this week.
I can’t imagine you take Dowdle completely off the field should the presumed starter return, but he’s also not going to get the elite volume that has allowed him to pile up these gaudy numbers. Denver running backs turned 17 carries into just 44 yards against these Jets last week, making a true committee in a limited offense a tough sell.
This is a situation to watch closely. If either RB projects to get the bulk of the work (via injury or reported usage patterns), you can pencil them in for top-20 production and feel good about it, but without that, you’re splitting a small pie, and that’s not how I like to live.
Jalen Coker, WR
Jalen Coker is nearing his season debut (quad), but he wasn’t quite ready on Sunday after a week of practice.
In reading the tea leaves from last week, a return to action this weekend seems plenty logical. There’s nothing actionable to do just yet, but the WR2 role in this offense is wide open, and with the Bills/Packers up next, you have to think some pass-heavy scripts are awaiting the Panthers.
At the very least, monitor this situation. Carolina is motivated to see what they have in their young players, and with a matchup against the Saints in Week 15, there’s a world in which a player like Coker could matter during the first week of your playoffs.
Tetairoa McMillan, WR
Tetairoa McMillan scored the first two touchdowns of what will hopefully be a long and productive career last weekend against the Cowboys.
It was great to see a player who has been earning volume all season long (43 targets through five weeks before scoring twice on his five looks over the weekend), but context is king.
The 21-yard TD in the second quarter was an overreaction by the Dallas defense to a Bryce Young pump fake. Because that’s what this defense does, they guess, and we’ve seen the results of that.
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Don’t get me wrong, no one is asking you to apologize for the fantasy points that McMillan gave you last week, but don’t confuse the multi-score performance as the start of an Emeka Egbuka-like run.
McMillan remains a low-end WR2 that is at the mercy of his unreliable situation. Despite the volume and physical tools, the rookie has just one 30+-yard reception, and that came in Week 2, his only game with 75+ receiving yards.
Xavier Legette, WR
We got the perfect touchdown play in Week 5, but it’s pretty clear that play was the exception and not the rule.
Xavier Legette hasn’t done anything to earn more work in Jalen Coker’s absence (eight catches in his four games) and doesn’t seem poised in any way to break out in his second season.
His struggles are the gain of Coker, a player who has yet to fail this season. That’s not to say he won’t; this offense isn’t exactly a pyre fest for fantasy managers, but with not yet having played, he figures to get a shot to earn looks when deemed healthy.
I’m in no hurry to roster a secondary receiver in Carolina, but if I am, Coker is my guy over Legette.
Ja’Tavion Sanders, TE
Ja’Tavion Sanders suffered a high ankle sprain in Week 3, and while he is trending close to returning (logged a full session on Thursday), he did miss another game last week.
The 22-year-old tight end sparked in Week 2 against the Cardinals with seven catches, but even that came in that chaotic comeback attempt where Bryce Young threw 30 (!) passes in the fourth quarter.
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I continue to think there is something in this profile. The blend of size and athleticism is that of an asset in this league, especially for an offense that is theoretically in the process of building. His target share, albeit in a small sample, was improved last season, and that’s impressive with an aDOT that was up 25.4% from his rookie campaign.
Tetairoa McMillan is going to be the alpha target earner in this offense for years to come, but after that, we are looking at a lot of middling talents without much proof of concept in the target-earning department.
Sanders doesn’t need to be held onto in redraft leagues if he was ever on a roster in the first place. Maybe he can be a streaming option in the second half of this season, but we will address that when we see that he is fully healthy and involved.
