The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key Green Bay Packers players heading into their matchup with the Denver Broncos to help you craft a winning lineup.
Jordan Love, QB
Would you blindly back a “hot” three-point shooter?
Without any context, I hope not.
Jordan Love is a good quarterback and might well be enough to get the Packers where they want to go, but seven scores on 55 attempts over the past two weeks is a heater that isn’t going to be sustained for any extended period of time.
He put himself in a tough spot in the first drive of the win over the Bears, taking a sack to put Green Bay behind the chains and then throwing a pick as he tried to make up for the first mistake. That was his first INT in over a month: he’s largely shown growth on that front this season, and that’s what the team wants.
This is a Josh Jacobs-based offense that can pass. That’s probably optimal for on-field success, but for us, it’s prohibitive. Love has just four top-10 finishes this season and has failed to clear 30 pass attempts in each of his past four games. He needs the type of unsustainable efficiency we’ve seen of late just to threaten lineups, and this matchup is pretty clearly an issue to sustaining success at a league-average level, never mind the crazy recent rates.
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Denver Defensive Rankings
- Touchdown Pass Rate: 1st
- Completion Percentage: 3rd
- Yards Per Pass: 4th
- Blitz Rate: 6th
- Pressure rate: 7th
I’m not comfortable starting Love anywhere this week, but let me be clear: DO NOT drop him. The Packers draw the Bears and Ravens in Weeks 16-17, matchups I anticipate having a top-8 grade for Love in.
Emanuel Wilson, RB
After carrying 28 times (30 touches) in the Week 12 game that Josh Jacobs missed, Emanuel Wilson has been a complete afterthought with RB1 back in the featured role.
- Thanksgiving at Lions: 4 carries for 14 yards, 0 targets
- Sunday vs. Bears: 3 carries for 10 yards, 0 targets
There’s nothing to suggest that Wilson is due for more work moving forward or that Jacobs is at anything less than full strength. If you want to hold him as an insurance policy or as a ‘one injury away’ piece, I think you can. Still, if you’re in a shallow league where every roster spot needs to be worthy of flex consideration, you’re free to move on in favor of a player who is getting on the field with more regularity.
Josh Jacobs, RB
Josh Jacobs has just three red zone touches over the past two weeks, 1.3 fewer than he was averaging PER GAME through his first 10 of this season, and the scoring equity isn’t set to spike against an elite Broncos defense.
There’s nothing to do here.
The gravity that Christian Watson is providing for this offense has a positive trickle-down effect across the board and could be part of why Jacobs has a 15+ yard run in three straight.
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We know the rushing volume is locked in (17+ carries in four of his past five games), and while his role in the passing game has been a bit sporadic, we at least have five examples of him catching 4+ passes this season.
This matchup has him sitting just outside of my top 10 at the position: a slight downgrade, but not enough to truly impact your decision-making.
Christian Watson, WR
CeeDee Lamb, Rashee Rice, Nico Collins, Amon-Ra St. Brown.
I could keep going, but at some point I’ll lose your attention. Those are receivers who have scored fewer PPR points than Christian Watson since Week 11. He’s the sixth-highest scoring player at the position (total points) over that stretch as he’s turned 92 routes into 17 catches for 264 yards and five touchdowns.
Scoring variance has been in his favor, and while that is likely to regress (though he is making a habit of scoring on a high percentage of his receptions), it’s the 26.5% target share that has my attention.
Jordan Love is showing no hesitation in calling his number vertically, and I think the Packers knew that these soft long passes were within their QB’s skill set; they just thought that Matthew Golden would be the speedster most likely to be running under them.
Last weekend against the Bears, Love noticed Watson one-on-one with a safety and simply lobbed the ball into vacated space, telling his receiver to win the foot race to a spot.
Easy game.
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He coasted into the end zone on that play and continued his red-hot run. This week, of course, carries more risk. Jayden Reed is a week healthy and figures to be a focal point due to avoiding the Patrick Surtain matchup.
That said, while Watson will line up across from the reigning DPOY, there’s a decent chance that Love looks his way on the chances he gets when not locking horns with the best corner in the sport.
For me, you’re playing with fire here. If I’m confident in my starting lineup and rounding it out with a flex, I’d prefer to go the safer route with a Khalil Shakir type. If you’re the last team in the playoffs and trying to knock off a 13-1 powerhouse, I have no issue in running Watson out there: he’s healthy, and we know that he is capable of racking up points in a hurry when that’s the case, even in a tough spot.
Dontayvion Wicks, WR
Yep, checks out.
Dontayvion Wicks goes bonkers on Thanksgiving (6-94-2 in Detroit), only to be a complete no-show on Sunday against the Bears.
He wasn’t on the final injury report (there was mention of an ankle during the week), and yet, he ran three routes.
One. Two. Three.
That ranked 11th on the team, and in an offense that can be a bit spastic with target distribution, that’s a good way to take your name out of the hate.
Do I think it sticks? I have no idea, but the fact that a minimization to that level is even within the range of outcomes is enough for me to move on without a second thought. You’re not playing him this week after that showing, and we just learned that a single star performance guarantees you nothing the next week, so would a big Week 15 get Wicks into your Week 16 lineup?
It wouldn’t for me, and that’s why I don’t think he’s roster worthy in any league.
Jayden Reed, WR
If the Packers were worried about Jayden Reed, it didn’t show on Sunday during his return to action. After not having played since Week 2, Reed caught four passes on his 17 routes and even handled a pair of carries (the jet sweep in the third quarter being the highlight) in the win over Chicago.
He was third among the receivers in snap share (48.1%) and that’s been consistent with what we’ve seen from him in the past, but if this offense is going to feature Christian Watson the way it has of late, does that not open the door for a more short-range winner like Reed to earn reps over a Romeo Doubs (80.8%) type?
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I’m not projecting it, but I think it’s possible and that hope is keeping him in the flex conversation for me this week, even in a tough matchup. We saw Jordan Love call Reed’s number for an important 18-yard play in the fourth quarter last week, and his role in the slot, where Patrick Surtain rarely travels to, appears safe.
Reed flirted with double-digit PPR points against the Bears, and I think he builds on that now that he’s had a week to readjust to the speed of the game. He and Watson are back-to-back in my ranks, a tier that checks in ahead of the Jerry Jeudys and Jordan Addisons of the world, both of whom are coming off productive weeks.
Matthew Golden, WR
Matthew Golden returned from a wrist injury and proved that the wrist might not have been the only thing keeping him out.
The Packers gave the rookie just four routes in what was their most important game of the season to date, and I think that tells you all you need to know when it comes to holding out hope for a late-season breakout.
Reed returned to action and looked healthy, while Watson continues to do what Golden was drafted to do and challenge defenses vertically. In a different world, Golden explodes early in the season with Watson on the shelf, but in this world, the opposite has come to pass, and that means in all redraft leagues, Golden is dead weight.
In a dynasty situation, I actually think you could make a decent argument for him as a buy low. He has a single skill that is already NFL-ready, and Green Bay seems to have its QB of the present and future. Holistically, this is a good spot for the Golden profile long-term, and if he’s rostered by a manager that can win a title this year, maybe you can acquire him at a discount.
Worth a look.
Romeo Doubs, WR
The Packers welcomed Jayden Reed back and went full Packers on us as a result.
In their win over the Bears, 10 players saw a target, and no one saw more than four.
Christian Watson (4-89-2) made the most of his looks while two targets to Romeo Doubs hit the ground, but those stat lines could easily reverse this week. Or maybe not. Or maybe Jayden Reed takes a week of game reps and looks like a world beater in this spot, a matchup where he likely won’t draw much Pat Surtain.
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The fact that all of those outcomes are possible is exactly why you can’t count on any of them. Doubs is a fine player to hold at the end of your bench because any week could be his week, but in this widespread offense where nothing is assured, you’re better off using him as a hope-and-prayer type than you are locking him in with expectations.
This offense will operate through the ground game until forced to do otherwise, then isolate singular matchups that change on a down-by-down basis. Good luck if you’re buying a Packer WR lottery ticket this weekend.
Luke Musgrave, TE
Live, it looked like Luka Musgrave made one of the best TE catches of the week against the Bears, but his sprawling attempt was deemed incomplete after replay, and that was the end of the excitement for those rostering him.
For a fifth straight game, he failed to reach 25 receiving yards, and things are only trending away from him with Jayden Reed healthy and Christian Watson ascending.
There’s no point in chasing TE production from an offense that has come to terms with moving the ball without it. Use these struggles from Musgrave as a reminder of just how impactful Tucker Kraft was, and don’t forget about him in drafts this summer.
