The NFL regular season may be over, but that doesn’t mean fantasy football has to stop. There are a number of variations of playoff fantasy leagues. This week, we are going to focus on one-and-done formats with our top start ’em picks for Wild Card Weekend.
What Are One-and-Done Leagues?
Before we get to the picks, here is a very quick primer on one-and-done playoff fantasy football leagues.
Most leagues require a starting lineup similar to this: QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, TE, Flex. Each week, every manager in your league has the full player pool available to choose from.
But there’s a catch.
Once you use a player, you can’t use him again. That’s where the strategy comes in. You need to construct the highest-scoring lineup while making sure you still have options for subsequent rounds.
Below, you will find our recommended picks for the first round of the NFL playoffs. These will not simply be the best players at each position. Each player is carefully selected to maximize scoring potential throughout the entirety of the postseason.
Top Start ‘Em Picks For Wild Card Weekend
The fact that this year’s postseason feels wide open makes things a lot more difficult. It’s fair to argue the Carolina Panthers are the only team we can be very confident will lose this weekend.
That means every pick we make will come with the risk that we get the outcome of the game wrong. With that in mind, here is what I’m going with for the Wild Card round.
QB: Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
I waffled back and forth on the quarterback call a lot. By taking Justin Herbert, we are guaranteeing that we are wasting the opportunity to select one of Trevor Lawrence or Josh Allen, rather than Brock Purdy or Jalen Hurts. My concern with each of those games is the environment.
The Jaguars are a pass-funnel. It’s a great spot to take Allen. However, we must make decisions based on what we think will happen in the playoffs. My call is that the Bills make the Super Bowl. Therefore, I can’t burn Allen here.
If I think the Bills make the Super Bowl, that should make Trevor Lawrence a good option. And he is. The problem is the Bills allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks this season. Lawrence has been on fire lately, but taking him in a bad matchup feels wrong.
That brings me to Herbert, who has been good, not great, this season. As much as Herbert struggled this season, he still averaged 18.7 fantasy points per game.
The Patriots are a pass funnel defense (although they’ve been much better overall in the second half of the season). In theory, the Chargers should be trailing and forced to throw more. Plus, I think the Patriots win. The hope is we get 200+ yards and 2+ touchdowns from Herbert in a losing effort.
RB: Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers
It would not shock me at all if the 49ers defeated the Eagles. This game could go either way. But the 49ers really underwhelmed against the Seahawks, failing to score a touchdown. They’ll obviously be better this week, but my sense is this team just isn’t that good. The defense, in particular, will have a very tough time stopping Jalen Hurts and friends. That makes me reasonably confident the 49ers lose.
This one is as simple as it gets. The 49ers are underdogs in Philadelphia. While they absolutely can win this game, it is more likely than not that they won’t. There is no way I am going to risk not being able to use Christian McCaffrey at all. He is the best running back in fantasy and the best running option this week, by far.
RB: Travis Etienne Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars
Now that we’ve established that I think the Bills win this game, here is how we try to capitalize. The Bills have been a run funnel defense all season, allowing the eighth-most fantasy points per game to the position.
Travis Etienne Jr. averaged 15.6 PPG this season. He was one of the best picks in fantasy. This is a spot where he could easily see 20+ opportunities, score a touchdown, and still be on the wrong side of the outcome.
Additionally, even if the Jaguars win, Etienne would not be a desired option against the Patriots’ elite run defense. The bigger issue would be missing out on the chance to use James Cook, but that is always a risk in these formats.
Bonus RB Pick: Josh Jacobs, Green Bay Packers
**I had already written this before I swapped Jacobs out for McCaffrey. Rather than let it go to waste, here is my rationale for Jacobs, if you want to go that route. But my official picks at RB are McCaffrey and Etienne. If you have a Flex spot instead of a third WR spot (or in addition to it), I would go with Jacobs ahead of all the WRs.
This Packers at Bears game feels like the biggest toss-up of the weekend. Green Bay opened as 1.5-point favorites, and the line quickly flipped to Chicago -1.5, which speaks to how evenly matched these teams are. It could go either way.
Unfortunately, we don’t have the luxury of exclusively taking players on teams we are confident will lose. Loading up on Panthers and Steelers would be a great way to increase our chances of having a large player pool for the Divisional Round. However, this contest is not just about having players available; we also need to score points.
Josh Jacobs has not been a great fantasy option the past six weeks or so. He’s had two games with 17.2 and 23.2 fantasy points. In the other four, he posted 4.0, 10.1, 4.8, and 1.3. That’s obviously not good, but we can attribute his struggles to a lingering knee injury.
With the Packers wisely resting starters in Week 18, Jacobs finally got a week off. I expect him to look much more like himself.
Jacobs posted 17.2 points in these teams’ first meeting, the one in which he was actually healthy. The Bears were right smack in the middle, allowing the 16th-most fantasy points per game to running backs. We know the Packers want to run the ball. Jacobs should see a heavy workload in this one. We just have to hope it’s in a losing effort.
WR: Parker Washington, Jacksonville Jaguars
One of the mistakes I’ve made in previous years is loading up too much on a team I think will lose. There are only so many fantasy points to go around, especially on a team that doesn’t win. So, we are capping it at two Jaguars here. Plus, if the Jaguars do advance, we still have Jakobi Meyers, Brian Thomas Jr., and Brenton Strange at our disposal. Not too shabby.
Parker Washington has been the best Jaguars receiver over the past month. Even with Thomas, Meyers, and Strange all healthy, Washington has posted games of 26.5, 19.0, and 19.7 fantasy points.
Meyers is still technically the WR1, but I think Liam Coen has accepted that Washington is simply really good at football. He is being featured because he’s earned it. Washington has the best skill set to take advantage of an otherwise strong Bills’ secondary and is not afraid to make the dirty catches over the middle. He’s my pick for Jaguars wide receiver.
WR: Christian Watson, Green Bay Packers
I think this is the correct way to get a piece of the Packers. You can also go with Jordan Love at QB over Herbert. But Christian Watson feels like he makes a lot of sense.
Watson had two very different outings against the Bears this season. In the first one, he went 4-89-2, posting elite WR1 numbers. In the second one, he had just two catches for 17 yards. This is undoubtedly a risky selection because Watson’s floor is very low. But we can’t play scared. These contests are hard to win, and we have to take chances.
Watson remains the clear WR1 on the Packers. When we last saw him in Week 17, he posted a 5-113-1 line with Malik Willis at quarterback. The Bears allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers this season.
WR: Quentin Johnston, Los Angeles Chargers
In these contests, we can’t hedge our bets. My bet is on the Patriots beating the Chargers. So, if we’re rolling with Herbert, we want to stack him. Of course, you can go with Ladd McConkey or Keenan Allen. My choice is Quentin Johnston.
We are chasing upside and splash plays. These contests typically attract a large number of people. So, we need a 99th percentile outcome to win. The easiest way to get that is with Herbert hitting up QJ for a long touchdown.
Over his last four games, Johnston posted fantasy point totals of 11.3, 2.8, 20.4, and 14.8. He gave fantasy managers the whole QJ experience.
Johnston recorded three games of 20+ fantasy points this season, plus four more of 14.8+. So, seven good to great weeks and seven disasters. It’s a coin flip. Let’s hope we called it correctly.
TE: Colston Loveland, Chicago Bears
At tight end, we don’t have to worry as much about saving players for later rounds. We only need one each round, which gives us a total of four. Even if the Bears win, which we think they will, we won’t be at a significant disadvantage without Colston Loveland next week.
There has to be a middle ground between preserving players for later rounds and scoring points. Loveland has been on fire and is finally being treated as the elite tight end the Bears drafted. His three highest snap shares of the season have come in the past three weeks. He’s been over 80% in all three and was at 91% in Week 18.
Over his past two games, Loveland has seen a total of 23 targets, catching 16 passes for 185 yards and two touchdowns. Granted, it has come without Rome Odunze in the lineup, but I’m not sure why Caleb Williams would stop throwing to his talented tight end just because Odunze is expected back this week.
DEF: Houston Texans
It’s pretty much impossible to run out of defense options. If you do, I promise that won’t be the reason you lose.
In seasonal fantasy, we stream defenses against bad offenses. In the NFL playoffs, we really don’t see many bad offenses. The deeper we get into the postseason, the less likely it is that there is a matchup we like.
Therefore, we should just take the best available option each round. This week, just keep it simple and take the No. 1 defense in the league against the second-worst team in the playoffs.
K: Eddy Pineiro, San Francisco 49ers
You can pick any kicker you want, really. I am opting not to go with Chris Boswell or Ryan Fitzgerald because I’m not exactly confident in the Steelers or Panthers to score many points. If they fall behind early, the field goal option comes off the board. The risk of getting only an extra point or two is too great.
Eddy Pineiro has been excellent since the 49ers signed him. The 49ers should be good enough offensively to get in scoring position, but the Eagles should be good enough defensively to merely bend, but not break. And if the 49ers win, it’s not a big deal at the kicker position. It’s very easy to maneuver such that we won’t run out of kickers by the Super Bowl.
