The NFL regular season may be over, but that doesn’t mean fantasy football has to stop. There are a number of variations of playoff fantasy leagues. This week, we are going to focus on one-and-done formats with our top start ’em picks for the Conference Championship.
What Are One-and-Done Leagues?
Before we get to the picks, here is a very quick primer on one-and-done playoff fantasy football leagues.
Most leagues require a starting lineup similar to this: QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, TE, Flex. Each week, every manager in your league has the full player pool available to choose from.
But there’s a catch.
Once you use a player, you can’t use him again. That’s where the strategy comes in. You need to construct the highest-scoring lineup while making sure you still have options for subsequent rounds.
Below, you will find our recommended picks for the Conference Championship of the NFL playoffs. These will not simply be the best players at each position. Each player is carefully selected to maximize scoring potential throughout the entirety of the postseason.
Top Start ‘Em Picks for the Conference Championship
Even in a year that legitimately was wide open, we ended up with just one of the top two seeds in each conference falling, and the Bears easily could’ve won as well. But now, we’re down to four.
Before we get to the picks, full disclosure here. I did make some adjustments to my lineup later in the week. Such is the nature of wanting to get this out early.
What I am going to do to combat that is give you my picks for this weekend based on the players I have available. Then, I will give you a quick second lineup as if every player remained an option. That should allow you to mix and match based on whichever players you burned last week.
QB: Drake Maye, New England Patriots
We only have two games to choose from. If you are still in the running to win your contest, this is where you need to perfectly balance maximizing points with ensuring options for the Super Bowl.
Due to the very unfortunate injury to Bo Nix, I can’t run out of quarterback options. At the same time, I don’t think it’s wise to risk having to use Jarrett Stidham.
Drake Maye is the best fantasy quarterback remaining. He just threw for three touchdowns against an elite Houston Texans defense. Josh Allen also threw three touchdowns against this Broncos defense.
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By taking Maye, I guarantee one of Matthew Stafford or Sam Darnold in the Super Bowl. I like both of their presumptive matchups against the Patriots more than Maye against either of their teams. That leads me to Maye this week.
RB: RJ Harvey, Denver Broncos
This is where things get really difficult. The way to truly maximize output would be to load up on Rams or Seahawks and hope the team I stack loses. But that strategy comes with risk.
If I’m wrong, I will be forced to start some very irrelevant players in the Super Bowl.
Meanwhile, the Broncos are easily the least likely of the four remaining teams to win. Thus, it makes sense to take some of their players, saving options for next week.
The downside, of course, is that means starting multiple players from a team with Jarrett Stidham at quarterback. That is the risk, and I completely understand if you simply want to take the best players you can and figure it out later.
RJ Harvey remains the Broncos’ lead back and the best bet for a touchdown. As limited as this offense may be with Stidham, Sean Payton is a smart head coach.
I expect him to devise a way to simultaneously hide Stidham while not simply pounding the ball on the ground against an elite run defense. My guess is he will utilize quick passes and the running backs in the passing game, giving Harvey a decent floor.
RB: Kyren Williams, Los Angeles Rams
Kyren Williams had 96 and 85 yards in his two games against the Seahawks. He scored in the first meeting.
It’s not the greatest matchup, but no one has a great matchup against Seattle. I still have to take players who can score points.
When teams have two running backs, it’s fine to burn one early. While I do think Seattle wins this game (not using Kenneth Walker III is a dead giveaway), even if the Rams come out on top, I still have Blake Corum at my disposal.
WR: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seattle Seahawks
This is where past decisions have come back to bite me. I burned Puka Nacua last week because I did not want to risk the Rams losing without me ever using the best wide receiver in fantasy.
That backfired as Nacua posted his worst game of the season (excluding games he left early) with five catches for 56 scoreless yards.
The same logic applies again, though. I can’t let the Seahawks’ postseason run potentially end without using Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
In this scenario, it’s not even necessarily an advantage for fantasy managers who save JSN, assuming the Seahawks win. Smith-Njigba was a terrible start last week, mostly because Darnold only attempted 17 passes against a noncompetitive San Francisco 49ers team.
Even if the Seahawks make the Super Bowl, the optimal time to use JSN will be in whichever game he scores more points. Smith-Njigba posted lines of 9-105 and 8-96-1 in his two games against the Rams. Given the teams remaining, there will still be enough options in the Super Bowl. Now is the spot for JSN.
WR: Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos
The best wide receiver on the team most likely to lose, Courtland Sutton undoubtedly comes with risk. Stidham could be terrible. Sutton is prone to disappearing and will have to contend with Christian Gonzalez. There are multiple ways this fails. But what’s the alternative?
Denver should be trailing and forced to throw more than they’d prefer, especially with a backup quarterback. I do not love any of the Patriots wide receiver options so much against a good Broncos defense that they are clearly superior options. It makes sense to use Sutton now.
WR: Pat Bryant, Denver Broncos
This is being written early in the week. At this point, we do not know the statuses of Pat Bryant or Troy Franklin. If Bryant is able to clear the concussion protocol, he seems like a pretty good choice.
The rookie was on his way to a pretty big game, hauling in each of Bo Nix’s first three pass attempts before exiting the game. Given how he’s used as an underneath option, Bryant could be featured in a quick-hitter offensive attack with a backup quarterback.
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If it’s not Bryant, Franklin would be the next man up. However, he strained his hamstring last week and is uncertain to play. After him, Marvin Mims Jr. is our next choice. Basically, use one of these three in that order.
TE: Hunter Henry, New England Patriots
Finally, a Patriot! I haven’t used a single tight end from any of the four remaining teams. This is as simple as picking the one I think will score the most.
Hunter Henry is a touchdown-or-bust option mostly. He scored in the Wild Card Round. Then, he had one catch for 5 yards in the Divisional Round. Hopefully, Henry has a bit of a better outing this time around. We just saw Dalton Kincaid go for 83 yards and a touchdown on six receptions.
DEF: Denver Broncos
The strategy at defense and kicker is similar to that at quarterback. Just make sure there is a 0% chance you can run out of options.
I’ve been using AFC teams for defense. I can’t switch it up now.
With the Patriots unavailable, using an NFC team means if I get it wrong and the Patriots win, I won’t have a defense for the Super Bowl. By taking the Broncos, I guarantee the Rams or Seahawks as an option in the final game of the season.
It also doesn’t hurt that the Broncos have a legitimately good defense, forcing five Josh Allen turnovers last week. Additionally, Maye wasn’t great at protecting the ball, either, throwing a pick and fumbling 4 times, losing 2.
K: Wil Lutz, Denver Broncos
This one I do not love at all. The Broncos could easily score 10 points in this game, resulting in Wil Lutz only having 4 fantasy points. If there were a spot to roll the dice on not having a player next week, it’s kicker. Jason Myers and Harrison Mevis will likely outscore Lutz.
I am not going to risk incorrectly predicting the outcome of a very close NFC Championship Game. By taking Lutz, I ensure the ability to use Myers or Mevis in the Super Bowl.
Optimal Lineup if Every Player Is Available
Here is what I would go with if I had the entire player pool as an option. Given that you probably didn’t play my exact lineup last week, feel free to mix and match choices from here with what I am actually playing based on the players remaining.
QB: Drake Maye
Same as above. He’s the best option.
RB: Kenneth Walker III and Kyren Williams
I do think these are the two best options this week. I am not using Walker for strategy reasons.
WR: Puka Nacua, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Stefon Diggs
If you have Nacua, use him now. I am not using Diggs because I am saving him for the Super Bowl. JSN is the same as above.
TE: Hunter Henry
Same as above.
DEF: New England Patriots
If you can start a defense against Stidham, do it.
K: N/A
Just take a kicker that guarantees you won’t run out of kickers for the Super Bowl.
