Nico Collins has quietly produced at a WR1 level for three straight seasons and still cannot seem to get the fantasy community fully on board. The Houston offense keeps getting cited as the reason to stay away. The numbers say that concern has been overstated all along. Fantasy managers may be looking at one of the best values on the board.
Should I Draft Nico Collins in Fantasy Football?
What exactly does Collins have to do to earn some respect around here?
Playing in a low-volume passing attack is not ideal, and there is no getting around the fact that the Houston Texans want to win games with running and defense. Fine. The production has been there anyway. Collins averaged 17.4 fantasy points per game in 2023 and 17.6 PPG in 2024. Last season he dipped to 15.1, which is the number people point to now.
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That dip was really the product of a couple of bad weeks. From Weeks 2 through 15, Collins averaged 16.8 PPG, right in line with everything we have come to expect from him. A couple outliers do not redefine a player.
The setup this year actually improves. Houston fielded the No. 2 defense in the league last season in terms of points allowed, and while they still project among the best, that kind of performance tends to regress. A defense that gives up even slightly more points is a defense that asks its offense to score more. That is exactly the environment Collins needs.
His role could not be more secure. Collins is the clear WR1 in that building with no threat to his standing. The Texans have capable receivers behind him, but none of them are anywhere close to his level.
Here is the number that jumps out at me. Collins has amazingly never crested a 25% target share in any season, which is roughly the threshold we expect from elite WR1s. He has produced at this level without ever reaching the volume benchmark that usually accompanies it. He can easily get there this year.
The efficiency is what makes the whole thing work. Collins averaged 2.4 yards per route run last season, 11th in the league, and he did it despite a catchable target rate that ranked outside the top 80. That is a player succeeding in spite of his circumstances rather than because of them.
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Now stack the plausible improvements. Give Collins a modest uptick in quarterback play, add a bit more passing volume from a team that has to score more, and let his target share finally climb past 25%. That is a clear path to an 18 PPG season, and none of those assumptions require anything dramatic.
He is my WR9, one spot ahead of his WR10 ADP. At the 2/3 turn, Collins is one of the best picks available on the board.
Katz’s WR Fantasy Rankings 2026
- Ja’Marr Chase | CIN
- Puka Nacua | LAR
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA
- Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET
- CeeDee Lamb | DAL
- Justin Jefferson | MIN
- Drake London | ATL
- Malik Nabers | NYG
- Nico Collins | HOU
- A.J. Brown | NE
- Chris Olave | NO
- George Pickens | DAL
- DeVonta Smith | PHI
- Zay Flowers | BAL
- Rashee Rice | KC
- Jaylen Waddle | DEN
- Tee Higgins | CIN
- Terry McLaurin | WAS
- Ladd McConkey | LAC
- Emeka Egbuka | TB
- Luther Burden III | CHI
- Tetairoa McMillan | CAR
- Garrett Wilson | NYJ
- Parker Washington | JAX
- Jameson Williams | DET
- Christian Watson | GB
- Rome Odunze | CHI
- Carnell Tate | TEN
- Davante Adams | LAR
- Mike Evans | SF
- Marvin Harrison Jr. | ARI
- DJ Moore | BUF
- Brian Thomas Jr. | JAX
- Chris Godwin Jr. | TB
- Stefon Diggs | WAS
- Michael Pittman Jr. | PIT
- Josh Downs | IND
- Wan’Dale Robinson | TEN
- Quentin Johnston | LAC
- Jayden Reed | GB
- DK Metcalf | PIT
- Jordan Addison | MIN
- Courtland Sutton | DEN
- Jakobi Meyers | JAX
- Makai Lemon | PHI
- Xavier Worthy | KC
- Michael Wilson | ARI
- KC Concepcion | CLE
- Romeo Doubs | NE
- Jalen Coker | CAR
