Nothing can derail a fantasy football team’s performance quite like bad weather. Rain, heat, cold, and wind can majorly impact players’ performance on the field. Here’s a weather report for every NFL game across Sunday and Monday so managers can make the best lineup decisions.
What Is the Fantasy Impact of the Week 16 NFL Weather?
Weather information was taken from Weather.com at 1:30 a.m. ET on Sunday, December 21. In-depth stats are courtesy of Pro Football Reference.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers
- Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET
- Expected Temperature: Low 60s
- Showers: 0%
- Wind: 6 mph N
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers visit the Carolina Panthers this weekend in the first of two head-to-heads in three weeks, which will likely decide the division. The weather shouldn’t be a factor, so all the usual faces are in play, while Jalen Coker is a great last-minute waiver add for those who have been hit by an injury.
After a stellar return in Week 14, Mike Evans faces a must-watch matchup with Panthers cornerback Jaycee Horn, who has allowed the fifth-lowest completion percentage among qualifying defenders when targeted this season (46.6%).
Buffalo Bills at Cleveland Browns
- Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET
- Expected Temperature: High 20s
- Showers: 3%
- Wind: 17 mph W
The Buffalo Bills take on the Cleveland Browns on a frozen Sunday afternoon in Cleveland. The Browns’ offense ranks dead last in PFSN’s Offense Impact metric, and as with most weeks, there are only two Cleveland players you can feel confident starting in fantasy.
Quinshon Judkins is a must-start against a Bills defense that has allowed the second-most yards per carry this season (5.4). Meanwhile, Harold Fannin Jr. continues to see phenomenal target volume in his rookie year.
The Browns have been more impressive on defense, but have uncharacteristically allowed 326 total rushing yards over their last two games. Whether to start Khalil Shakir or Dalton Kincaid depends on your other options, with the icy temperatures and probable positive game script set to favor a run-heavy approach.
With the wind approaching 20 mph and six games being played indoors this week, there are likely better kicking options on the waiver wire.
Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins
- Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET
- Expected Temperature: High 70s
- Showers: 13%
- Wind: 8 mph ENE
Back in the warmth of the Southwest, the Miami Dolphins will expect to put in a better showing against the Cincinnati Bengals than they did in Pittsburgh on Monday night. With both teams out of playoff contention, the biggest storyline is the first start of rookie quarterback Quinn Ewers.
The Bengals’ defense has been woeful against tight ends this season, and while Ewers’ introduction clouds things, Darren Waller is an intriguing streaming option.
Minnesota Vikings at New York Giants
- Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET
- Expected Temperature: Mid to low 40s
- Showers: 0%
- Wind: 15 mph WNW
The Minnesota Vikings head to a cold and windy MetLife Stadium this weekend, looking to continue their recent offensive renaissance. The Vikings have scored 65 total points over their last two games, having managed only 42 over their previous four.
The conditions may again prove challenging for both kickers and are also set to be less than perfect for throwing. Fortunately for Minnesota, the New York Giants’ defense has allowed more yards per rush attempt than any other this season.
Kansas City Chiefs at Tennessee Titans
- Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET
- Expected Temperature: Low 50s
- Showers: 0%
- Wind: 8 mph NE
The weather shouldn’t be a factor in Nashville, where the Tennessee Titans host the Kansas City Chiefs. What will be a factor, though, is the fact that Gardner Minshew will be leading the Chiefs’ offense, with Patrick Mahomes now out for the season.
That will have caused some doubt over the Chiefs’ receivers in fantasy, but with Rashee Rice also ruled out, things are more streamlined than they may have been. Tony Pollard has worked his way back into fantasy consideration recently, but you could be forgiven for not trusting anyone else on the Titans.
Travis Kelce is the obvious alpha target for Minshew and should get plenty of looks, but how productive the Chiefs offense is remains to be seen.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos
- Kickoff: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
- Expected Temperature: High 50s
- Showers: 0%
- Wind: 6 mph NNE
A matchup between two impressive defenses doesn’t scream fantasy production, even in ideal December weather. The Jacksonville Jaguars have been outstanding of late, but the Denver Broncos (18.64) are second only to the Houston Texans (16.29) in points allowed per game.
Jakobi Meyers has seen a high target volume since joining Jacksonville, but he has been a fairly touchdown-dependent WR2. The players with the most receiving yards against Denver this year are mainly big-play receivers and tight ends, so Brian Thomas Jr. and Brenton Strange could be in for big games.
For the Broncos, Pat Bryant’s return clouds the team’s receiver rotation beyond Courtland Sutton, so bear that in mind when deciding on your flex starts.
New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens
- Kickoff: Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET
- Expected Temperature: Mid to low 30s
- Showers: 1%
- Wind: 6 mph Northwesterly
Temperatures around freezing should play into the hands of Derrick Henry against the New England Patriots, especially after he averaged 9.1 yards per carry in Week 15. He faces a much stronger test this week, though; the Patriots have given up the fifth-fewest rushing yards per game (95.1 -tied) and the fewest total rushing scores (seven -tied) this year.
The Patriots have also given up the fifth-fewest total points per game (19.71), while the Baltimore Ravens’ offense has yet to find its best form this season. The Ravens defense has also put in some good performances against the run in recent weeks, but you shouldn’t be thinking twice about starting TreVeyon Henderson.
Games Played in Domes or Stadiums With Retractable Roofs
Los Angeles Chargers at Dallas Cowboys | Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET
New York Jets at New Orleans Saints | Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET
Atlanta Falcons at Arizona Cardinals | Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET
Pittsburgh Steelers at Detroit Lions | Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Las Vegas Raiders at Houston Texans | Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
San Francisco 49ers at Indianapolis Colts | Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET
