Fantasy football managers are always seeking an edge as the season progresses. Evaluating which players to trade can mean the difference between making the playoffs and missing out.
Some players appear valuable on the surface but may have underlying risks due to matchup schedules or changing team roles. Careful research into these details can help fantasy football participants make more informed sell-high decisions.
Trade Targets to Sell: Caleb Williams, QB, Chicago Bears
Heading into Sunday, none of Chicago’s seven wins this season had come against teams with winning records. Sunday’s victory over the Steelers put an end to that run, albeit with Aaron Rodgers watching on from the sidelines.
Caleb Williams put up some impressive numbers, completing 19 of 35 pass attempts for 239 yards and three touchdowns. He did give up an awful touchdown by fumbling in his own end zone, but Bears fans won’t care about that with the team leading the NFC North.
Analyzing Williams’s performances this season, though, it’s clear that his better performances have come against weaker opposition. But for the opening weekend against the Vikings, Williams’ top-10 fantasy finishes have all come against defenses that entered Sunday in the bottom 11 against the pass.
The New York Giants ranked 11th-worst in passing yards allowed per game, while the Bengals, Steelers, Dallas Cowboys, and Washington Commanders made up the bottom four.
Moving forward, Williams faces the Packers twice, the Browns, the Philadelphia Eagles, and the San Francisco 49ers. If you make it to the fantasy championship, the 49ers offer a promising matchup. Before then, though, the remaining three teams ranked in the top half of that list, with the Packers 10th-best, and the Browns leading all defenses against the pass.
Rico Dowdle, RB, Carolina Panthers
At the time of writing, Rico Dowdle has yet to play his Monday-night matchup against the 49ers, but has emerged as a trustworthy RB2 with RB1 upside in recent weeks. That could well continue in Santa Clara, which would aid his trade value, but given the premium on running backs at this stage of the season, it shouldn’t matter too much.
Dowdle is a talented back and is probably still underrated, but he faces some tricky matchups down the road, which would be better avoided if possible. First, he faces the Los Angeles Rams in Week 13, who have emerged as one of the most formidable run defenses in the NFL.
If you’ve already made the playoffs in your league, then that won’t bother you. However, the Panthers then face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Seattle Seahawks in Weeks 16 and 17. You shouldn’t be desperate to move Dowdle, but there are similar RB2s with far better playoff schedules and better values in other positions if you’re in need.
Zonovan Knight, RB, Arizona Cardinals
The following two backs aren’t going to fetch you much compensation, but are worth moving if you have enough depth not to be desperate in the coming weeks. With the Arizona Cardinals rotating backs in the absence of their two starters, James Conner and Trey Benson, Zonovan Knight has taken on the bulk of goal-line work.
There is a chance he could keep that role beyond Benson’s return, but that’s far from guaranteed. Benson was a limited participant in practice all last week and could well make his return in Week 13.
Even without Benson, though, the Cardinals face the Buccaneers, the Rams, and the Houston Texans in the next three weeks, so Knight is, at best, a true desperation flex. The runner has totaled 27.7 PPR points over his last two games, and that should be enough to see you get something for him in a trade.
Emanuel Wilson, RB, Green Bay Packers
Similar to Knight, Wilson has shone while filling in for Josh Jacobs over the past two weeks. Jacobs left early in Week 11 and missed Sunday’s win over the Vikings entirely, while Wilson tallied 107 yards and two touchdowns on 28 carries.
Wilson has seen work alongside Jacobs this season, but not enough to even think about starting him in fantasy. Also, his 28 carries were five more than Jacobs’ season high of 23, so there certainly won’t be enough to go around.
If you can capitalize on Wilson’s cameo, you might be able to get flex value from a desperate league mate in home leagues. Otherwise, his handcuff value might be worth stashing if you have space on your bench.
DJ Moore, WR, Chicago Bears
DJ Moore enjoyed a stellar Week 12, catching five of his seven targets for 64 yards and two touchdowns against the Steelers. Sunday was always going to be a feast for the Bears’ passing attack, with Pittsburgh being the worst pass defense in the NFL to that point in the year.
But unlike some of the other Chicago pass catchers, Moore has the reputation to go along with his outlier week, and should be able to attract interest in trades. The Bears have a much trickier schedule moving forward, and if you can get WR3/flex value for Moore, you should probably take it.
The former fantasy favorite has recorded just two top-10 fantasy finishes this year, and finished outside the top 30 receivers in eight of the remaining nine weeks.
Hunter Henry, TE, New England Patriots
Like Moore, Hunter Henry has a fairly solid reputation in fantasy and is part of an emerging offense and a team that surprisingly leads its division. Also like Moore, Henry just recorded an outlier week against a miserable defense, and you should look to profit from it before Week 13.
The tight end caught seven of 10 targets for 115 yards and a touchdown, and at the time of writing, is the TE1on the week, with only Monday Night Football to play. Henry has two other top-10 fantasy weeks this year, one against the Panthers in Week 4, and one against the Steelers, the only team with a worse pass defense than Cincinnati.
When negotiating, you can point out that he should have also had another touchdown, but it was called back due to an offensive pass interference penalty on Hollins. Meanwhile, it would be better not to mention that the Bengals’ defense ranks 32nd in PFSN’s Defense Impact metric this season.
You can stream a solid tight end every week, so if you can get something decent for Henry, you should take it.
