Fantasy football managers face challenging weekly decisions that can make or break their seasons. The key to success lies in understanding when to trust your drafted players versus when to pivot based on matchups and recent trends.
This week presents particularly tough choices as several presumed reliable options may not deliver the expected results. Smart lineup decisions require looking beyond player names and focusing on game scripts, target shares, and defensive vulnerabilities.
Start ‘Em: Chris Olave, New Orleans Saints
This Giants-Saints game could be a low-key shootout. Spencer Rattler may not be winning football games, but he is playing better than expected. He’s protecting the ball and getting it to his top offensive weapons. Rattler had the Saints ahead against the Bills in the fourth quarter last week.
Chris Olave’s usage has been nothing short of spectacular. Last week against the Bills was the first time Olave failed to reach double-digit targets. Fortunately, he found the end zone.
Olave has now reached double-digit fantasy points in every game this season. Moreover, he accomplished this feat throughout a tough stretch of opponents. The schedule is about to open up, and it starts this week against a New York Giants defense allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. Fire up Olave with confidence.
Michael Pittman Jr., Indianapolis Colts
The answer as to when to draft Michael Pittman Jr. is whenever the fantasy community isn’t in on him. This year, he was going after Josh Downs. Evidently, that was a grievous error.
Pittman has hit 15+ fantasy points in three of his first four games to start the season. With Daniel Jones playing well, Pittman’s been able to find the end zone three times already. He’s commanding a 24.4% target share and is one of just two fantasy-relevant pass-catchers on the Indianapolis Colts (the other being Tyler Warren).
The Colts will undoubtedly continue leaning on Jonathan Taylor and the ground game. But the Las Vegas Raiders are a pass-funnel defense. They’re allowing the eighth fewest fantasy points per game to running backs, but the third most to wide receivers. Pittman should continue rolling in this favorable matchup.
Sit ‘Em: DeVonta Smith, Philadelphia Eagles
Fair warning. The wide receiver sits aren’t precisely the guys fantasy managers are clamoring to start, nor are they solely matchup-based. This is a particularly challenging week, with at least four clear fantasy starters at wide receiver on bye. Additionally, we have several players who we thought were surefire starters underperforming. And we have injuries.
DeVonta Smith has actually been pretty easy to figure out, at least in hindsight. In fact, the entire Philadelphia Eagles passing game has.
Ask yourself a simple question each week: Will the Eagles trail? If the answer is “no,” you do not want to start anyone on this team other than Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley.
The Eagles have had three games with a neutral to positive game script. In those games, Smith has averaged 6.3 fantasy points. It’s not just Smith, either. A.J. Brown has averaged 4.1 fantasy points in those same contests.
Against the Los Angeles Rams in Week 3, who got out to an early lead, forcing Hurts to throw, Smith posted 20 fantasy points. Brown topped him with 22.9 points.
Looking at the Eagles’ schedule, there are maybe 2-3 games left where they might face a negative game script. So, this may actually be the last time Smith can be called a sit since he will not be a top 48 WR most weeks.
The Eagles are home against a Denver Broncos defense allowing the second fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers (excluding Monday Night Football). They are unlikely to find themselves trailing. That means Smith is a sit.
Ladd McConkey, Los Angeles Chargers
After Week 1, Ladd McConkey was a buy. He saw nine targets. He looked great. He just happened not to score. Then, in Week 2, his output dropped again…then again in Week 3 before hitting rock bottom in Week 4.
Four weeks is simultaneously a small sample size and also not. It’s only four games, but it also represents almost 25% of the season. McConkey caught one pass for 11 yards against a Giants defense that can’t stop anyone through the air.
We have to call it like we see it. Quentin Johnston is the Chargers’ WR1. Keenan Allen is the WR2.
Justin Herbert is throwing enough to sustain three fantasy-relevant wide receivers. But how much output fantasy managers get from those players depends on each player’s role. McConkey is firmly third.
The Washington Commanders are allowing the seventh most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. This is a good matchup. With a returning Jayden Daniels, the Commanders could make this into a fun high-scoring contest. Will it matter, though?
McConkey was a second-round pick this year. It’s tough to finally gather the stones to put that guy on your bench. But it’s time. Until we see something change with the usage of the Chargers’ wide receivers (or someone gets hurt), McConkey cannot be trusted.