Fantasy football managers face crucial decisions each week about which players to start and which to bench. The tight end position often presents some of the trickiest choices, as production can be highly unpredictable from week to week.
Understanding matchup advantages and defensive vulnerabilities becomes essential for making the right lineup decisions. This week offers several intriguing options at the position, with some players poised for breakout performances while others may disappoint despite recent success.
Start ‘Em: Brenton Strange, Jacksonville Jaguars
This one is currently in flux, pending the severity of Brenton Strange’s hip injury. If he can play, though, the matchup is a juice one.
The Seattle Seahawks have an excellent defense. However, it is not without its vulnerabilities, particularly in its linebackers’ coverage.
Cade Otton had 34 receiving yards on the season before facing the Seahawks. He had two games without a reception. Yet, Seattle managed to surrender four catches for 81 yards to the veteran tight end. They are allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to the position.
If Strange can go, you can confidently put him in lineups.
Juwan Johnson, New Orleans Saints
Juwan Johnson has really tailed off the past two weeks. After posting 15+ fantasy points in each of his first two games, the New Orleans Saints TE has seen his output decline in each of the past three weeks. There’s reason to bank on a rebound in Week 6, though.
From a usage standpoint, Johnson’s role hasn’t changed. Even with Taysom Hill’s return, Johnson was still the clear TE1. He played 85% of the snaps against the New York Giants. The issue is that his target share has taken a significant hit.
This week, we could see the Saints rely more on their tight end. The Patriots have been very vulnerable in this position. We just saw Dalton Kincaid have the best game of his career against the defense, catching six passes for his first 100-yard receiving game ever (108 yards). On the season, the Patriots are allowing the fifth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.
With Christian Gonzalez giving Chris Olave fits and Rashid Shaheed a specialist in splash plays, this could be a week when the passing game funnels through Johnson.
Sit ‘Em: Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills
Fresh off the best game of his career and having been a TE1 in three out of five games this season, it seems as if Dalton Kincaid is finally taking a step forward into an every-week starter. The underlying data tells a different story.
It’s undoubtedly a positive that Kincaid is being targeted on 22.2% of his routes run. However, he’s still commanded just a 16.1% target share. Most concerning, he’s only playing 47% of the snaps and running a route on 62.3% of Josh Allen’s dropbacks. Simply put, Kincaid’s production does not match his usage.
Things could get challenging against an Atlanta Falcons defense that allows the fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends. Now, it is worth noting they’ve faced Cade Otton, T.J. Hockenson, Ja’Tavion Sanders, and Zach Ertz. These are not exactly top-tier opponents. But the production they’ve allowed has been close to zero.
This looks like a game where Allen will utilize Khalil Shakir and Keon Coleman a bit more, while also scrambling himself. Unless Kincaid scores, it may be a disappointing day for the Bills’ TE.
Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons
“This is the year!” They said about Kyle Pitts for the fourth time. However, so far, it actually appears to be.
The veteran Atlanta Falcons tight end is pacing towards the best year of his career. He’s averaged 11.6 fantasy points per game. Pitts is running a route on 90.5% of Michael Penix Jr.’s dropbacks and has earned a respectable 18.3% target share.
This week will be a significant real test against the Buffalo Bills. Pitts will be fresh and rejuvenated coming off the bye, but the Bills are allowing the third-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends.
Buffalo has a solid defense overall, but it is more vulnerable on the ground than in the air. This shapes up to be a game where Atlanta leans heavily on Bijan Robinson. When they throw, we already know Drake London is their top guy. There may not be enough meat left on the bone for Pitts.