Making lineup decisions can be the most frustrating or most rewarding part of fantasy football. Here to help you make those decisions are our start ’em and sit ’em picks. Fantasy decisions will only get more difficult from here on out, so let’s take a look at our Week 6 start/sit plays.
Start ‘Em: Jordan Love, QB, Green Bay Packers (vs. CIN)
What a dream spot for Jordan Love. When we last saw the Green Bay Packers, they gave us a 70-minute 40-point thriller on Sunday Night Football that unfortunately ended without a winner. Love had his best game of the season, throwing for 337 yards and three touchdowns, scoring 26.3 fantasy points.
The Packers are now well-rested coming off their bye, and they get a Cincinnati Bengals defense that is allowing the seventh-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks.
There is a blowout risk here, and a very real chance that Love may not have to play in the fourth quarter. However, if that happens, it means he’s likely accumulated some impressive statistics along the way. As long as Josh Jacobs doesn’t steal all of the touchdowns, Love should feast in this one.
Mac Jones, QB, San Francisco 49ers (at TB)
Mac Jones is fresh off what may legitimately be the best performance of his career. Filling in for an injured Brock Purdy and operating without his top four pass-catchers, Jones threw for 342 yards and two touchdowns in an upset victory over the Los Angeles Rams on a short week. Truly incredible.
Purdy aggravated his turf toe two weeks ago and is not expected back just yet. That gives Jones another start, and it’s a similar situation.
The San Francisco 49ers will have their hands full with Baker Mayfield and the potent Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense. Against an outstanding Seattle Seahawks defense, the Bucs put up 38 points. They are going to make the 49ers score points.
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This is good news for Jones’ fantasy prospects, as the Bucs aren’t exactly adept at stopping opposing passing games. They’re allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks.
Ideally, Jones can get one of Ricky Pearsall or Jauan Jennings back for this game. But regardless, he’s shown he can function with Kendrick Bourne and Jake Tonges as his top pass-catchers. The former New England Patriots first-round pick is a very viable streaming option this week.
Rico Dowdle, RB, Carolina Panthers (vs. DAL)
It’s too early to say for sure whether Chuba Hubbard will return this week. Given that he aggravated his calf injury two weeks ago, resulting in three consecutive DNPs at practice, we should operate under the assumption that Hubbard will miss at least one more game. But even if Hubbard plays, there’s plenty of reason to like Rico Dowdle anyway.
Dowdle had the best game of his career last week. He carried the ball 23 times for 206 yards and a touchdown. He also added three catches for 28 yards. Of course, it helped to face a bottom-five run defense in the Miami Dolphins, but that doesn’t discount what Dowdle was able to do.
Before Hubbard’s injury, this was about at a 65/35 split in favor of Hubbard. Without Hubbard, it was all Dowdle. He played 67% of the snaps and handled 85% of the backfield’s opportunities. Dowdle is a workhorse.
This week, not only does Dowdle get a defense allowing the fifth-most fantasy points per game to running backs, but it’s the Dallas Cowboys. It’s a revenge game!
While these types of narratives are often overblown, in this case, there’s merit to it. Dowdle gave the Cowboys ample reason to bring him back after his 1,000-yard season last year. They chose not to. These players are still humans with emotions. You know Dowdle wants to stick it to his former team.
If Hubbard plays, Dowdle is still a good bet for 8-10 touches and goal-line work. If Hubbard misses another game, which we suspect he will, Dowdle is a clear RB1 against a bad defense he wants to embarrass.
Tony Pollard, RB, Tennessee Titans (at LV)
Tyjae Spears returned last week, leading many to believe he might eat into Tony Pollard’s usage. Pollard did play a season-low 73% of the snaps. However, his volume was unaffected.
Pollard touched the ball 17 times, totaling 78 yards and a touchdown. Spears played a mere 25% of the snaps and handled four carries. He did not see a target.
It’s encouraging that Pollard could still excel in a below-average matchup with his talented backup returning. Now, he gets a Las Vegas Raiders defense allowing the 10th-most fantasy points per game to running backs.
The Raiders just got eviscerated by Jonathan Taylor. Obviously, Pollard is nowhere near as talented as JT, but he’s used similarly and will see the same type of volume.
Pollard has been largely a floor player all season. This could be the week we finally see a ceiling.
Jakobi Meyers, WR, Las Vegas Raiders (vs. TEN)
It’s been a rough three weeks for Jakobi Meyers. Things were looking so good to start the season as the veteran receiver opened with games of 17.7 and 12.8 fantasy points. Since then, he’s posted 9.3, 7.0, and 7.2 points. Not great.
Surprisingly, Meyers has been worse without Brock Bowers than with a limited Bowers, even when he is fully healthy and dominating. Although Bowers’ presence probably isn’t the main issue. It’s Geno Smith.
The former Seattle Seahawks QB has been downright awful this season. Smith is still completing 65% of his passes, but he’s thrown six touchdowns against his league-leading nine interceptions. It’s gotten so bad that you can’t help but wonder if we won’t see Kenny Pickett soon.
With all that said, if there were ever a spot for Meyers to bounce back, it’s now. The Tennessee Titans are coming off their first win of the season. They are riding high. It’s a perfect spot for a letdown.
The Titans are allowing the ninth-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. It sounds as if Bowers is going to miss another game so he can work toward being 100% recovered before he plays again.
There is a risk that the Las Vegas Raiders lean extra hard on Ashton Jeanty. At home against a bad team, they could actually have a positive game script, limiting the need for Smith to throw the ball. But they will have to call some pass plays. When they do, Meyers stands to benefit.
DK Metcalf, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. CLE)
Can it be considered point-chasing if the last time we saw a player play was two weeks ago? Either way, that’s not what this is.
DK Metcalf’s role as the Pittsburgh Steelers’ WR1 is very secure. He’s the transparent alpha in this passing attack. The problem has been a lack of overall volume on a team that plays slowly.
With this recommendation, we are banking on rational coaching. The Cleveland Browns are a pass-funnel defense. They are truly elite at stopping the run, but allow the eighth-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers.
Suppose Mike Tomlin and Arthur Smith are serious about winning this game. In that case, they won’t waste time pounding Jaylen Warren or Kenneth Gainwell into the Browns’ front seven, allowing Metcalf to go off for a second consecutive contest.
Brenton Strange, TE, Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. SEA)
This one is currently in flux, pending the severity of Brenton Strange’s hip injury. If he can play, though, the matchup is a juice one.
The Seattle Seahawks have an excellent defense. However, it is not without its vulnerabilities, particularly in its linebackers’ coverage.
Cade Otton had 34 receiving yards on the season before facing the Seahawks. He had two games without a reception. Yet, Seattle managed to surrender four catches for 81 yards to the veteran tight end. They are allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to the position.
If Strange can go, you can confidently put him in lineups.
Juwan Johnson, TE, New Orleans Saints (vs. NE)
Juwan Johnson has really tailed off the past two weeks. After posting 15+ fantasy points in each of his first two games, the New Orleans Saints TE has seen his output decline in each of the past three weeks. There’s reason to bank on a rebound in Week 6, though.
From a usage standpoint, Johnson’s role hasn’t changed. Even with Taysom Hill’s return, Johnson was still the clear TE1. He played 85% of the snaps against the New York Giants. The issue is that his target share has taken a significant hit.
This week, we could see the Saints rely more on their tight end. The Patriots have been very vulnerable in this position. We just saw Dalton Kincaid have the best game of his career against the defense, catching six passes for his first 100-yard receiving game ever (108 yards). On the season, the Patriots are allowing the fifth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.
With Christian Gonzalez giving Chris Olave fits and Rashid Shaheed a specialist in splash plays, this could be a week when the passing game funnels through Johnson.
Sit ‘Em: Jared Goff, QB, Detroit Lions (at KC)
Jared Goff is playing exceptionally well to start the season. He’s completing an incredible 75% of his passes and has 12 touchdowns against just two interceptions. We were told his 6.9% touchdown rate from last season was unsustainable. Well, he’s at 8.3% this year. So much for regression, right? (Yes, there is still a lot of football left to be played).
Fantasy managers should feel some hesitation about starting Goff this week against a tough Kansas City Chiefs pass defense. The Detroit Lions are on the road, where Goff is notoriously worse than in the confines of Ford Field. The Chiefs are also allowing the third-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. And it’s not like they’ve had an easy slate of opponents.
Kansas City has faced off against Justin Herbert, Jalen Hurts, and Lamar Jackson. For their numbers to be as good as they are defensively is a true testament to the ability of this unit. Goff is a borderline QB1 at best.
Justin Fields, QB, New York Jets (vs. DEN)
If you roster Justin Fields in fantasy, the best approach is to check the box score when it’s over. Watching Fields get to where he needs to be from a fantasy perspective will cause unnecessary anxiety.
Fields looked to be well on his way to a disastrous single-digit fantasy point outing. Then, in the fourth quarter, with the game completely over, Fields took advantage of garbage time and managed to end up with 25.9 points. It’s what he does.
Perhaps Fields does it again this week. His 25.9 points from last week represented his worst outing of the season, excluding the game he did not finish due to a concussion. But this may be a week the New York Jets fall far behind, and Fields is unable to get it done late.
The Denver Broncos just held the Philadelphia Eagles to 17 points. They are allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. It’s a bad matchup and one in which Garrett Wilson may not be able to bail Fields out as he deals with Patrick Surtain II.
If Fields can overcome this difficult matchup, he will ascend to every-week must-start QB1. For now, though, if you have a viable alternative, Fields is best avoided this week.
Chase Brown, RB, Cincinnati Bengals (at GB)
Chase Brown wasn’t exactly playing well before Joe Burrow went down. He only averaged 10.8 fantasy points per game over Weeks 1 and 2. Since then, however, it has been a disaster.
Brown’s volume has cratered with the Cincinnati Bengals unable to sustain drives. After seeing 24 and 19 opportunities to start the season, Brown has had 15, 13, and 16 in his last three games. Most notably, he’s topped out at just 10 carries, mainly due to the Bengals experiencing negative game script every game Jake Browning has started.
Things have been bad. They are about to get much worse.
The Bengals now face the misfortune of a road game against the Packers, who are fresh coming off their bye week. Green Bay is allowing the second-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs. They are also very good at stopping running backs from catching passes, which has been the only thing sustaining Brown’s dwindling fantasy value.
Brown caught seven passes last week, albeit for a measly 21 yards. The Packers have seen opponents target the running back position at a rate of 21%. Yet, only eight teams are allowing a lower percentage of their receiving yards to go to the RB position. Teams try to throw to running backs against the Packers. It just doesn’t work.
This is a terrible spot for the entire Bengals offense. They might be making a quarterback change. Brown hasn’t been outstanding when he has touched the ball. If you start him, you are hoping he bumbles his way into the end zone.
Derrick Henry, RB, Baltimore Ravens (vs. LAR)
Can you imagine actually benching Derrick Henry? It seems absurd to bring it up, especially considering we know he’s not washed. Henry didn’t go from being capable of running for 169 yards in Week 1 to being cooked in Week 5.
The reality is that Henry has always been game script-dependent. The reason the move to Baltimore worked so well is that the Ravens have been one of the best offenses in football whenever Lamar Jackson is on the field. Unfortunately, he wasn’t last week and won’t be again this week.
Henry scored a touchdown last week, but still somehow failed to reach double-digit fantasy points. He’s rushed for 21 fewer yards in his previous four games combined than he did in Week 1 alone.
Now, Henry gets to go up against a Los Angeles Rams defense allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs.
Christian McCaffrey was able to smash against them because he caught eight passes for 82 yards and a touchdown. Henry does not catch passes. He will have to get it done on the ground, which no one has been able to do against the Rams.
Can you actually bench Henry? That’s up to you. These are merely the facts. Henry has been between 7.8 and 10.7 fantasy points for three straight weeks and now gets his toughest test of the season. Do with that what you will.
Jerry Jeudy, WR, Cleveland Browns (at PIT)
Remember when Jerry Jeudy was an elite WR1 for like six weeks? Those were fun times. Jameis Winston is fun. Joe Flacco and Dillon Gabriel are not.
Jeudy has been in the NFL for six years. At this point, we know who he is. He’s an NFL-caliber wide receiver for sure, but he’s nothing close to a special player. If we are re-litigating the 2020 NFL Draft, he probably goes late Day 2, if not Day 3.
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Without Winston artificially inflating his fantasy value, Jeudy is pacing toward the worst season of his career. He’s averaging 6.9 fantasy points per game so far. His 22.8% target share is what you’d expect, but his 20.6% targets per route run rate is abysmal. He is not commanding volume.
Now, Jeudy is being asked to tackle a Steelers defense allowing the 11th-fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers. This is a defense that started slowly but has come together recently.
Rested and refreshed coming off the bye week, they are going to feast on a rookie QB making his second career start in a hostile road environment. Jeudy belongs firmly on fantasy benches.
Jameson Williams, WR, Detroit Lions (at KC)
Doubling down on Lions, it’s time to accept that Jameson Williams is not that good of a player. It’s ironic because heading into the 2024 season, analytics suggested Williams was an easy fade, while film provided reason to believe in a breakout. It sure looked like the film was correct. But as the saying goes, “never wrong, just early.”
Heading into this year, the film actually painted a more pessimistic outlook on Williams. He is swift and athletic, which makes him liable to bust off a big play at any moment. That skill hasn’t gone away. But last year, Williams was reliant on those plays. It worked out because Ben Johnson was able to scheme him open, something Williams required because he’s not a polished route runner.
This year, the Lions aren’t scheming up those plays for Williams. Instead, they are going with the guys who can get it done on their own, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta. As a result, Williams looks like the guy he was in 2023 again, someone who is not fantasy-relevant.
Williams is averaging 7.9 fantasy points per game this season. He has a mere 11 receptions in five games and has exceeded 6.6 fantasy points just once. Now, he’s going up against a Kansas City Chiefs defense allowing the second-fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers. Fantasy managers cannot trust Williams until he shows signs of life.
Dalton Kincaid, TE, Buffalo Bills (at ATL)
Fresh off the best game of his career and having been a TE1 in three out of five games this season, it seems as if Dalton Kincaid is finally taking a step forward into an every-week starter. The underlying data tells a different story.
It’s undoubtedly a positive that Kincaid is being targeted on 22.2% of his routes run. However, he’s still commanded just a 16.1% target share. Most concerning, he’s only playing 47% of the snaps and running a route on 62.3% of Josh Allen’s dropbacks. Simply put, Kincaid’s production does not match his usage.
Things could get challenging against an Atlanta Falcons defense that allows the fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends. Now, it is worth noting they’ve faced Cade Otton, T.J. Hockenson, Ja’Tavion Sanders, and Zach Ertz. These are not exactly top-tier opponents. But the production they’ve allowed has been close to zero.
This looks like a game where Allen will utilize Khalil Shakir and Keon Coleman a bit more, while also scrambling himself. Unless Kincaid scores, it may be a disappointing day for the Bills’ TE.
Kyle Pitts, TE, Atlanta Falcons (vs. BUF)
“This is the year!” They said about Kyle Pitts for the fourth time. However, so far, it actually appears to be.
The veteran Atlanta Falcons tight end is pacing towards the best year of his career. He’s averaged 11.6 fantasy points per game. Pitts is running a route on 90.5% of Michael Penix Jr.’s dropbacks and has earned a respectable 18.3% target share.
This week will be a significant real test against the Buffalo Bills. Pitts will be fresh and rejuvenated coming off the bye, but the Bills are allowing the third-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends.
Buffalo has a solid defense overall, but it is more vulnerable on the ground than in the air. This shapes up to be a game where Atlanta leans heavily on Bijan Robinson. When they throw, we already know Drake London is their top guy. There may not be enough meat left on the bone for Pitts.
