Fantasy football championships often come down to how well managers handle uncertain backfield roles. In a given week, game script, matchups, and usage trends can outweigh raw talent. Running backs can swing a matchup on just a handful of touches, which raises the stakes on every start-sit call. This guide helps navigate those choices without giving away all the answers.
Start ‘Em: Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, New England Patriots (at NYJ)
Rhamondre Stevenson obviously benefited from TreVeyon Henderson’s concussion on Sunday night. After the rookie left the game, it was all Stevenson. He wound up touching the ball 10 times for a total of 78 yards plus a touchdown and a two-point conversion.
It is certainly possible that Henderson clears the protocol and plays this week. But if he doesn’t, this is a smash spot for Stevenson.
The veteran played literally every snap at running back after Henderson went down. Obviously, the Patriots will activate a second running back, but we are going to be looking at an 80+% snap share for Stevenson against a Jets defense allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game to running backs in a game where the Patriots should have a positive game script.
Michael Carter, RB, Arizona Cardinals (at CIN)
Last week, Michael Carter was in such a good spot to produce, but couldn’t get it done. He looked great on the ground, carrying the ball 11 times for 65 yards. Unfortunately, after five straight games with at least two receptions, Carter didn’t catch a pass against the Falcons. Without any receptions or touchdowns, it’s very difficult for a running back to put up fantasy points.
Nevertheless, Carter led the Cardinals with a 53% snap share and had as many carries as Emari Demercado and Corey Kiner combined. He’s the clear lead back.
This week, the matchup couldn’t be much better against a Bengals defense that allows, by far, the most fantasy points per game to running backs. Add in the fact that Joe Burrow should be able to push the Cardinals into needing to score, and the game environment projects much better this week. Go back to Carter one more time.
Sit ‘Em: Rico Dowdle, RB, Carolina Panthers (vs. SEA)
The Carolina Panthers’ offense doesn’t make much sense. Two weeks ago, they decided to go all in on Rico Dowdle, with Chuba Hubbard rarely seeing the field. Last week, we saw much more Hubbard with his snap share exceeding 40%.
A big part of this is projecting the game script. The one saving grace for Dowdle is that the Panthers are at home. But they are still expected to be trailing for much of this game. When the Panthers are behind, they have to throw.
That’s Hubbard’s role. Add in the fact that the Seahawks allow the fifth fewest fantasy points per game to running backs, and Dowdle looks like a pure touchdown-or-bust RB2, at best.
Breece Hall, RB, New York Jets (vs. NE)
We always say volume is king in fantasy football. Breece Hall is surely testing that theory.
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The volume has been there. He saw 19 opportunities against a Saints run funnel defense last week. Unfortunately, when Brady Cook is your quarterback, defenses don’t exactly have to worry about the pass.
Hall turned his 16 carries into 54 scoreless yards, while adding two receptions for nine yards. He just can’t do anything within this offense.
Now, Hall gets a Patriots defense that held him to 8.4 fantasy points in their first meeting. They are a pass funnel defense, which does nothing for the Jets, who cannot pass the ball. New England allows the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs. If you drafted Hall and made it to the final, congratulations. This is another bad spot for him.
