Making lineup decisions can be the most frustrating or most rewarding part of fantasy football. Here to help you make those decisions are our start ’em and sit ’em picks. This is it, folks. Championship week. We have to get these calls correct. Let’s take a look at our Week 17 start/sit plays.
Start ‘Em: Tyler Shough, QB, New Orleans Saints (vs. TEN)
Do the New Orleans Saints have their answer at quarterback? Maybe. Tyler Shough has played quite well over the past month, and not just in real life. His fantasy numbers have been there, too.
There are a lot of injuries across the NFL. We will see plenty of teams in the fantasy finals that need a quarterback. Why not Shough?
Over his past four games, Shough has hit 17 points in all of them. He just threw for 308 yards in a game, and the Saints never trailed. In Week 17, he gets a Tennessee Titans pass-funnel defense, allowing the eighth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Shough is absolutely worth a stream.
Caleb Williams, QB, Chicago Bears (at SF)
Amazingly, Caleb Williams got there against the Packers on Saturday night. Granted, it took overtime and a miracle (but perfectly delivered) walk-off to DJ Moore. But he got there.
To give you an idea of the risks of starting Williams, he threw for 250 yards and two touchdowns against the Packers. It was his highest yardage total since Week 9, and just the seventh time this season he’s thrown for multiple touchdowns.
Williams is hot, though. He’s thrown for two touchdowns in three straight games and only has six interceptions on the season.
Perfect microcosm of Caleb Williams completion %.
Perfect throw on time and on the money. Dropped. pic.twitter.com/oWbgdbRuZu
— 🗽Sam (@CalebIsHim) December 22, 2025
The problem with Williams is that the Bears have very little interest in calling pass plays. For 3.5 quarters, Ben Johnson made no effort to actually score points against the Packers, content to run the ball and punt over and over again. When the clock and score finally forced the Bears to throw, Williams delivered.
This week, we should see a game where the 49ers push Williams to have to air it out. San Francisco is good enough on offense that if the Bears try and run it repeatedly, they will fall behind. Thus, they either need to come out throwing. Or, they can let themselves fall behind, and we could get another strong second half from Williams.
Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, New England Patriots (at NYJ)
Rhamondre Stevenson obviously benefited from TreVeyon Henderson’s concussion on Sunday night. After the rookie left the game, it was all Stevenson. He wound up touching the ball 10 times for a total of 78 yards plus a touchdown and a two-point conversion.
It is certainly possible that Henderson clears the protocol and plays this week. But if he doesn’t, this is a smash spot for Stevenson.
The veteran played literally every snap at running back after Henderson went down. Obviously, the Patriots will activate a second running back, but we are going to be looking at an 80+% snap share for Stevenson against a Jets defense allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game to running backs in a game where the Patriots should have a positive game script.
Michael Carter, RB, Arizona Cardinals (at CIN)
Last week, Michael Carter was in such a good spot to produce, but couldn’t get it done. He looked great on the ground, carrying the ball 11 times for 65 yards. Unfortunately, after five straight games with at least two receptions, Carter didn’t catch a pass against the Falcons. Without any receptions or touchdowns, it’s very difficult for a running back to put up fantasy points.
Nevertheless, Carter led the Cardinals with a 53% snap share and had as many carries as Emari Demercado and Corey Kiner combined. He’s the clear lead back.
This week, the matchup couldn’t be much better against a Bengals defense that allows, by far, the most fantasy points per game to running backs. Add in the fact that Joe Burrow should be able to push the Cardinals into needing to score, and the game environment projects much better this week. Go back to Carter one more time.
Wan’Dale Robinson, WR, New York Giants (at LV)
One of the biggest surprises of the season has been the play of Wan’Dale Robinson. Of course, Malik Nabers’ injury played a big role in Robinson’s strong performance. But he still had to deliver. And he has…just not last week.
In a game where Jaxson Dart could not get anything going, Robinson caught three passes for 19 yards. It was his worst fantasy outing since Week 4. Fortunately, there’s reason to think things will turn around this week.
The Giants get a nice Week 17 matchup against a Raiders defense allowing the ninth-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. Given how poorly attempting just 13 passes in a game went for the Giants last week, expect a little bit more passing volume this week.
Since Week 6, Robinson has failed to reach double-digit fantasy points a mere three times, but never in consecutive weeks. He should get back on track when fantasy managers need it most.
Jakobi Meyers, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. IND)
What a strange game. Trevor Lawrence once again played out of his mind, throwing for three touchdowns. Yet, none of them went to Jakobi Meyers. In fact, of Lawrence’s 23 completions and 279 yards, just four for 45 went to Meyers. It marked the first time in five weeks that Meyers failed to reach double-digit fantasy points.
Even amidst the down game, Meyers still saw eight targets, trailing only Parker Washington for the team lead. He remains well ahead of Brian Thomas Jr., who has been relegated to the fifth option in the passing game and is completely irrelevant.
Meyers should get back on track against a Colts defense he just posted 14.8 fantasy points against in Week 14.
MORE: Free Fantasy Start/Sit Optimizer
The Colts allow the 12th-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. They are a pass funnel defense. With how well Lawrence is playing and the importance of this game for playoff positioning, Meyers is poised for a strong finish to the fantasy season.
Darren Waller, TE, Miami Dolphins (vs. TB)
It wasn’t the smash we were hoping for against the worst TE defense of all time last week, but Darren Waller continues to be involved in the Miami Dolphins’ offense. He caught three passes for 40 yards, which is not the worst outing from the tight end position.
Waller still only played about half the snaps, but he did lead the tight ends. And the reality is, we’re chasing a touchdown with Waller anyway.
This week is another favorable spot for the Dolphins’ passing game, especially for Waller. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers allow the sixth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends. Quinn Ewers exceeded the admittedly very low bar set for him against the Bengals. The Dolphins should be trailing and throwing. Waller is a fine option who has a decent floor even if he doesn’t find the end zone.
Brenton Strange, TE, Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. IND)
The Jaguars’ offense is pretty simple. Who is Trevor Lawrence going to look for? Anyone other than Brian Thomas Jr.
Lawrence is playing not just the best football of his career, but some of the best football we’ve seen from any quarterback this season. Jakobi Meyers is the clear WR1 and his favorite target, but behind him, there’s no clear No. 2. Except, of course, it’s definitely not Thomas.
Last week, Lawrence found both Parker Washington and Brenton Strange. The tight end has been a mixed bag since returning from IR, but he does have 13+ fantasy points in three of his last five games.
The Colts are a pass funnel defense. They’re slightly below average at defending the tight end, allowing the 12th-most fantasy points per game to the position. Strange is easily a top 12 TE this week.
Sit ‘Em: Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers (vs. HOU)
Somehow, Geno Smith threw for 201 yards and two touchdowns against the Texans. Okay, technically, he threw three touchdowns, but one went to the other team.
The Texans may have escaped with a win, but they certainly aren’t going to be pleased with their defensive performance after allowing the Raiders to post the highest point total against them since Week 9 with 21.
Justin Herbert’s pocket navigation and toughness are absurd. Strike after strike from a muddy pocket. pic.twitter.com/V5grdII2Oc
— Ollie Connolly (@OllieConnolly) December 22, 2025
Expect a much better showing from the No. 1 defense in the league this time around. Justin Herbert may be a more imposing opposing passer, but we’ve seen this defense completely shut down Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes.
The Texans allow the second-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Prior to last week’s 30-point effort against the worst pass defense in the league, Herbert had gone five consecutive games without reaching 15 fantasy points. Look for that to resume this week.
Jared Goff, QB, Detroit Lions (at MIN)
Jared Goff has been airing it out lately, with the Lions consistently falling behind in games. He’s attempted a whopping 95 passes over the last two weeks, with the majority of them coming in the second half.
As much as the Lions have struggled recently, this is a massive get-right spot. That may seem good for Goff, but the script doesn’t set him up well.
The Lions couldn’t get anything going on the ground last week. Jahmyr Gibbs rushed for two (yes, TWO) yards against the Steelers. That will undoubtedly be a point of emphasis as the Lions prepare for a must-win game on a short week.
Even though the Lions are on the road, they get a Vikings team that upset them in Detroit the last time they played. They are not going to get swept by Minnesota, let alone when they are starting Max Brosmer.
This should be a game where the Lions have positive game script. We saw them score 44 points against the Cowboys three weeks ago, and Goff didn’t even reach 20 fantasy points. The Vikings allow the fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Everything about this game screams Gibbs and David Montgomery.
Rico Dowdle, RB, Carolina Panthers (vs. SEA)
The Carolina Panthers’ offense doesn’t make much sense. Two weeks ago, they decided to go all in on Rico Dowdle, with Chuba Hubbard rarely seeing the field. Last week, we saw much more Hubbard with his snap share exceeding 40%.
A big part of this is projecting game script. The one saving grace for Dowdle is that the Panthers are at home. But they are still expected to be trailing for much of this game. When the Panthers are behind, they have to throw. That’s Hubbard’s role. Add in the fact that the Seahawks allow the fifth fewest fantasy points per game to running backs, and Dowdle looks like a pure touchdown-or-bust RB2, at best.
Breece Hall, RB, New York Jets (vs. NE)
We always say volume is king in fantasy football. Breece Hall is surely testing that theory.
The volume has been there. He saw 19 opportunities against a Saints run funnel defense last week. Unfortunately, when Brady Cook is your quarterback, defenses don’t exactly have to worry about the pass.
Hall turned his 16 carries into 54 scoreless yards, while adding two receptions for nine yards. He just can’t do anything within this offense.
Now, Hall gets a Patriots defense that held him to 8.4 fantasy points in their first meeting. They are a pass funnel defense, which does nothing for the Jets, who cannot pass the ball. New England allows the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs. If you drafted Hall and made it to the final, congratulations. This is another bad spot for him.
DeVonta Smith, WR, Philadelphia Eagles (at BUF)
Let’s get one thing straight before we get into this. DeVonta Smith is really good at football. On a different team with a different offense, he could easily be an every-week WR1. Unfortunately, he is on the Philadelphia Eagles. His quarterback is Jalen Hurts. And there’s an A.J. Brown across the field from him.
Smith got by last week because he scored. That’s it. Otherwise, it was more of the same from him. Prior to last week, Smith hadn’t hit double-digit fantasy points since Week 12. Unsurprisingly, that was in the most favorable matchup possible against the Cowboys.
This week, Smith gets a Bills defense allowing the ninth-fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers. While this is a game where Hurts might actually have to throw the ball to keep up with a high-octane Bills offense, the game environment might not be as good as it seems.
Both of these teams want to run the ball. Why the Bills are intent upon trying to hide their otherworldly quarterback is beyond me. But that’s how they want to run their offense.
So, it’s a bad matchup, and the Eagles may not possess the ball much because of how the Bills operate. Enjoy Smith’s points from last week, but temper expectations for Week 17.
Emeka Egbuka, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (at MIA)
Full disclosure. I’m mostly speaking to myself here. I’ve gotten away with starting Emeka Egbuka all season, not putting him on the bench once. Injuries have been a big reason Egbuka had to remain a starter, but the fact remains, he never should’ve been.
Egbuka remains rostered in almost 100% of leagues. Clearly, I’m not the only one who struggled to move past being primed by his early-season production. The reality is he should’ve been dropped months ago.
Since Week 6, Egbuka has exceeded 10.4 fantasy points in a game just once. Over that span, he’s scored 6.5 fantasy points or fewer a staggering five times.
For a while, the volume was there for Egbuka. That necessarily means regression is coming. A player cannot see as much volume as Egbuka did without something changing to normalize it. The hope was that the regression would lead him to start converting more opportunities. Instead, it went in the other direction. The volume went away.
Egbuka’s two lowest snap shares of the season have come in his past two games. From Weeks 7-14, the rookie never saw fewer than eight targets in a game. Last week, he saw just two.
The Dolphins allow the 10th-fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers. But that doesn’t really matter. Even if the Bucs were facing the Cowboys, Egbuka would be a sit because he hasn’t produced in over two months.
Dalton Kincaid, TE, Buffalo Bills (vs. PHI)
Remember when Dalton Kincaid was a top 12 tight end? His missed games aside, Kincaid has not been startable very much this season. Since Week 6, the Buffalo Bills tight end has exactly two games with more than 6.4 fantasy points. One of those came against the Bengals.
Last week, Kincaid reminded everyone why he belongs nowhere near fantasy lineups. He saw one target the entire game and did not catch it.
Kincaid played less than 40% of the snaps and ran a mere 12 routes. That is completely unsustainable usage.
Now, he is tasked with overcoming a Philadelphia Eagles defense that has shut down tight ends all season. They allow the fewest fantasy points per game to the position. Kincaid belongs nowhere near fantasy lineups.
Dalton Schultz, TE, Houston Texans (at LAC)
It’s a pair of Daltons on the sit list. Dalton Schultz has actually been incredible over the second half of the season. There have been a few duds mixed in, but Schultz has posted TE1 numbers in seven of his last 10. He’s pretty much become the No. 2 option in the passing game behind Nico Collins.
Schultz did well to overcome a Raiders defense that’s actually been pretty solid against tight ends. But think about how it happened. Schultz was stuck on a 4-34 line before he caught a wide-open one-yard touchdown in the fourth quarter. Without that, it’s another dud in a predictable dud spot. And that’s exactly what we have this week.
The Chargers allow the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends. This game has all the makings of an ugly, low-scoring contest. Schultz is still a TE1 because of how bad the position is, but he’s not someone fantasy managers should be excited about using.
