Week 7 brings crucial decisions to make or break your fantasy football season. Savvy managers know that matchups matter as much as talent when setting their lineups. Some players in favorable spots are primed for breakout performances, while others face tough defensive units that could limit their upside. Let’s dive into the key start and sit recommendations to help you maximize your scoring potential this week.
Start ‘Em: Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Washington Commanders
It was a disappointing outing in a favorable matchup on Monday Night Football for Jacory Croskey-Merritt. Bill managed to rush 17 times for a mere 61 yards with a loss of a fumble. Not what fantasy managers were hoping for. But there were positives.
The rookie continued to dominate this backfield, playing 67% of the snaps. After his first-quarter fumble, he was not punished, showing the coaching staff’s confidence in him.
Now, he gets a Dallas Cowboys defense that is allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game to running backs. They just gave up over 200 total yards to Rico Dowdle.
The Commanders are undeniably motivated after a rough loss. Expect them to lay it on thick to their division rivals. JCM finds the end zone in this one.
Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints
Start running backs against the Chicago Bears. The analysis could really stop there, but it also helps if the running back is actually good.
Alvin Kamara is going to have the worst season of his career. He’s averaging 11.6 fantasy points per game. Even at the low bar of his previous low of 14.1 PPG in 2022, it would take significant improvement for him to get up to that number. But that doesn’t mean he’s cooked.
The issue with Kamara is essentially the New Orleans Saints offense. Spencer Rattler has exceeded expectations, but expectations were that he’d be benched for Tyler Shough by now. Not exactly a high bar.
Kamara’s 13.1% target share is excellent for running backs in general, but not for someone who has consistently been amongst the league leaders throughout his career.
While his usage hasn’t been at career high levels, it’s still be solid enough with a 68% opportunity share. Things will not be much easier than against a Bears defense that allows the seventh-most fantasy points per game to running backs.
Sit ‘Em: Kenneth Walker III, Seattle Seahawks
Zach Charbonnet could be here as well. Neither Seattle Seahawks running back is particularly good. However, Charbonnet at least offers touchdown upside as he is the goal-line back.
The split in this backfield shifted heavily in favor of Charbonnet last week. Walker played a season low and a career low with Charbonnet healthy 35% of the snaps. The team’s preference for Charbonnet in short-yardage situations and passing downs gives him the higher weekly upside.
Walker relies too heavily on splash plays. He is always looking to hit a home run and rarely takes what is blocked.
This season, Walker is seventh in the league with 24.4% of his rushes going for zero or negative yards. Ironically, Charbonnet is the worst at 31.7%, so it’s unclear why Seahawks coaches view him as the superior option.
Nevertheless, Walker is completely unstartable in his current role. He is a split backfield on early downs, doesn’t catch passes, and doesn’t get goal-line carries. How exactly is he going to score his points? He’s basically Isiah Pacheco. Against a Houston Texans defense allowing the third-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs, Walker belongs nowhere near starting lineups.
Bam Knight and Michael Carter, Arizona Cardinals
Can we call it a bombshell announcement? That seems a bit much. However you want to describe it, Adam Schefter certainly shook things up on Sunday morning when he announced that the Arizona Cardinals were making a switch at running back and rolling with Bam Knight as the lead back ahead of Michael Carter.
Two weeks ago, it was all Carter, who dominated touches 23-5 over Knight. Last week, Knight was the lead back, but it was much more of an even split.
Emari Demercado’s ankle injury certainly played a factor, as his absence forced Carter into the receiving back role. Ultimately, Knight only had two more carries than Carter on five more snaps.
The value in the Cardinals’ lead stemmed from volume. In any matchup, the usage Carter saw in Week 5 is worth starting. But the Week 6 touch distribution is only viable in favorable matchups. This…is not one of them.
The Green Bay Packers allow the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs. Carter and Knight have combined for three touchdowns in the past two games. If neither scores this week, which is more probable than not, it’s hard to see how either hits double digits.
