Week 4 presents a pivotal moment for fantasy football managers navigating an increasingly unpredictable quarterback landscape. Several signal-callers have emerged from unexpected situations to deliver top-tier performances, while established veterans continue to struggle with consistency issues.
The position has been marked by dramatic swings in production, creating both streaming opportunities and lineup dilemmas for those seeking reliable quarterback play. Whether you’re riding with your drafted starter or exploring waiver wire options, this week’s matchups could reshape your season trajectory.
Aaron Rodgers | PIT
Aging is a pain.
I’m a 35-year-old researcher, and I feel qualified to tell you that, regardless of what a professional athlete older than me must feel.
We saw glimpses of what made Aaron Rodgers great in his prime last week. He put a jump ball up for DK Metcalf, where only his teammate was going to get it (it moved Rodgers into fourth on the all-time pass TD list), and found Calvin Austin on a 17-yard strike with vintage precision.
But that was really it against the Patriots. No big chunk plays, no rushing production, and no excitement. He’s got Pittsburgh at 2-1 in a very methodical and conservative fashion because that’s what he can do at this point.
Maybe he can continue to grind out wins for the Steelers, but he’s not doing it for fantasy managers with consecutive finishes easily outside of the top 20.
Baker Mayfield | TB
Baker Mayfield is the type of player you want your fantasy fate in the hands of because it genuinely feels like he has your back. He fights for every inch and is willing to put his body (and chain) in harm’s way to get it done.
He doesn’t play like a former first overall pick; he plays like that last kid picked for a schoolyard hoops game that has to grind out every edge to maximize his value.
The loss of Mike Evans for a few weeks will be felt, potentially in a big way against this strong Eagles defense, but with Emeka Egbuka profiling like young Mike Evans, I’m not sure Mayfield’s stock will come crashing down.
He’s been QB13 or better every week this season in part because he has 30+ rushing yards in every contest. As defenses start to fear his legs, I’m looking for big pass plays to open up outside of the pocket, especially with a veteran like Chris Godwin nearing return.
Mayfield is currently QB11 for Week 4, and if you drafted him, I think you’re in good shape moving forward.
Bo Nix | DEN
If there will be a week to right the ship, this has to be it, right?
Bo Nix has yet to post a top 10 week after being drafted to do just that. He’s averaging under 25 rushing yards per game and under 6.0 yards per pass, a brutal combination, but both of which I expect to rebound with time.
As a passer, it’s been a dip in the deep numbers that have made the beginning of his encore season disappointing. His yards per pass on balls thrown 15+ yards downfield is down 18.5%, and he’s completed just five of those 18 throws.
His receivers should have all day to get loose and open up windows for those throws against the least aggressive defense in the league (6.6% blitz rate, NFL average: 26.5%), and when you combine that with some tough matchups for Dak Prescott (vs. GB), Patrick Mahomes (vs. BAL), and Jared Goff (vs. CLE), I get a top 12 QB for Week 4.
Brock Purdy | SF
The nagging toe injury cost Brock Purdy another game, but all signs point to a Week 4 return.
San Francisco escaped with a win in Week 3, but the Mac Jones experience was a little more uneven (one touchdown and one interception) than it was the week prior in New Orleans (three touchdowns and zero picks).
We are reminded seemingly every week that rushing production as much as anything is what fuels production at the QB position. Purdy ran for 17 yards in the season opener and looked comfortable in space in 2024, but there are obvious reasons to worry about his potential in the short term.
I think he’s worth holding onto, especially as the second half of the season approaches and this team (maybe, hopefully) trends toward full strength, but I’m not tempted to roll the dice this week, assuming he suits up.
Purdy sits comfortably outside of my top 15 at the position ahead of Week 4.
Bryce Young | CAR
Bryce Young threw more passes in the fourth quarter of Week 2 than he’s averaged in Weeks 1 and 3, and outside of that frenetic stanza, he’s shown little to no growth in Year 3.
The fantasy version of my brain was encouraged by the first-quarter rushing score last week (he had six a year ago, tying him for the third-best at the position), but considering that was essentially his only source of fantasy production, those positive vibes disappeared quickly.
Young is a low-end QB2 in superflex spots, and even that I don’t feel great about.
C.J. Stroud | HOU
If you block it, they will come.
“It” is any defender, and “they” are fantasy points. I’m not throwing in the towel on C.J. Stroud as an NFL QB, but he, in this specific setting, seems to be a dead fantasy asset.
He’s yet to reach 210 passing yards in a game this season and has totaled just two touchdown tosses on 89 attempts, both to Nico Collins (one of which was a complete defensive lapse).
I struggle to call the 20+ rush yards in all three games a positive (there were four such games in 2021) because it’s more about him running for his life than about him running as a strategy.
This is a great matchup, and as a cheap DFS stack, I’ll listen, but there’s no reason to go with a player set up to fail who has yet to have a top-20 week with all 32 teams in action.
Caleb Williams | CHI
We are probably still a few weeks away from labeling Caleb Williams as a weekly lineup lock, but Week 3’s QB1 has certainly looked comfortable for most of 2025.
Williams escaped without a single sack last week against an admittedly awful Cowboys defense. He became the third Bears QB in a decade to record four touchdown passes without a pick (the others: Justin Fields and, of course, Mitch Trubisky).
He’s currently pacing for over 4,000 passing yards and 500 rushing yards, thresholds that only five QBs have hit during the 2000s (Josh Allen (3x), Russell Wilson (2x), Lamar Jackson, Deshaun Watson, and Cam Newton).
There’s no excuse for not jumping on the Williams bandwagon this week after the Raiders just allowed the Commanders to hang 41 points on the board.
Cameron Ward | TEN
A pick-six on the game’s third play is undoubtedly an interesting way to start the game.
Cam Ward does the same thing weekly, and I see no reason to anticipate change for much of his first NFL season. Each week, we see flashes of potential and moments of youth. That’s not a rare combination for a 23-year-old. In fact, I’m more encouraged, long-term, about the good than the bad after three games.
The developing connection with Elic Ayomanoar is yet another reason to buy stock in Ward in dynasty/keeper formats. Still, for redraft managers, there’s no reason to roster the rookie given the loaded nature of the position.
Carson Wentz | MIN
I’m not the least bit confident we know anything more about Carson Wentz today than we did a week ago, and that makes him a player you don’t need to concern yourself with in single-QB leagues.
Sure, the opening drive against the Bengals over the weekend was impressive (3-of-4 for 29 yards, including a 12-yard score to Josh Oliver). But this game got out of hand so quickly, courtesy of the Vikings’ defense, that there was really no evaluation to take place.
He featured his two primary pass catchers, T.J. Hockenson and Justin Jefferson, which is a net positive for all involved moving forward. But with Jordan Addison returning this week, I’m not entirely sure what the target distribution will look like.
Wentz did enough to keep me playing my Vikings as I normally would, which means zero exposure to the quarterback position in standard formats.
Dak Prescott | DAL
It’s easy to replay all of the highlights of that Week 2 instant classic with the Giants (QB6 for that week), but Dak Prescott hasn’t been a top 20 signal caller in the other two weeks and is now being asked to face an elite defense without his go-to weapon.
The Cowboys typically want to outscore opponents and thus play a fantasy-friendly style, but I have to imagine they rein that in some this week, especially with Micah Parsons chomping at the bit.
You need quality or quantity from pocket passes at the very minimum, and I’m not confident you’ll get either on Sunday night.
Daniel Jones | IND
The Colts have tailored their offense to capitalize on Daniel Jones’s strengths, which has enabled him to achieve success at the level he has so far. He leads the league with 13 out-of-pocket completions thus far, and it’s only taken him 15 attempts to get there.
Players in the 2000s to have 800 pass yards, 50 rush yards, and 0 INTs through Week 3:
- Lamar Jackson (2019) – MVP
- Patrick Mahomes (2020) – Won the AFC
- Daniel Jones (2025) – ???
Of course, the rushing production has been what has allowed Jones to elevate his fantasy stock massively, and while I think it will stick for the season, color me skeptical for this week.
The Rams rank 24th in blitz rate this season, and that should allow them to allocate a spy on Jones. If that’s not working, they are ridiculously good when they do elect to send an extra rusher (69.2% pressure rate when blitzing, easily the top mark in an NFL where the league average is 44.7%).
If Jones finishes as a top 12 QB for a fourth consecutive week, I think he barely does it. He’s my QB12 for the week, with Jordan Love (at DAL) one spot ahead and bounce-back Bo Nix (vs. CLE) one spot behind.
Drake Maye | NE
Drake Maye is averaging seven rush attempts per game this season, not bad for a player who hit that number just once as a rookie.
The Patriots are clearly interested in unlocking that part of their franchise QB, and who are we to complain?
That threat has opened up things a bit as a passer: Maye has multiple passing scores in consecutive games for just the second time in his career (a top-7 QB in each of those weeks).
The only flaw, I guess you could poke in this Week 4 profile is New England’s stated goal of getting their running backs more confidence after a three-fumble game. If the home team is dominating, could this be a 25-pass, three-rush sort of afternoon from Maye?
It’s possible, but I generally guard against assuming we know exactly how a game will play out.
Maye is my QB7 for Week 4.
Geno Smith | LV
Geno Smith follows up a zero-touchdown, three-interception game with a three-touchdown, zero-interception game because, of course, he does.
There was plenty of garbage time on Sunday in Washington to allow Smith to rack up counting numbers, and that’s great if you were forced into some weird spot where you had to play him, but I took away nothing in terms of sticky growth from the veteran.
He and Tre Tucker combined for one of the more unique DFS money-making tandems of the season, and while I don’t doubt that the Raiders will fall behind like this again, counting on it is dangerous at best.
Smith is the definition of league average and can funnel targets to the two players you need him to. Expecting more than that is a mistake on your part, especially when playing behind an offensive line that has left Ashton Jeanty wondering what open space looks like through three weeks.
J.J. McCarthy | MIN
A Week 2 high ankle sprain is expected to cost J.J. McCarthy 2-4 weeks (Week 6 bye) after he got dinged up against the Falcons.
I expect the Vikings to take a very cautious approach with a QB they hope to build a long-term winner around: not only is he coming off a knee injury that cost him his rookie season, but the NFC North isn’t exactly up for grabs at the moment.
Dynasty managers need to find a replacement, while redraft managers who stashed McCarthy as an upside backup can feel free to move on. Even if he returns after the bye, the Eagles, Chargers, Lions, and Ravens await Minnesota in Weeks 7-10.
This season will be viewed as a success if McCarthy can return and get reps; there’s no reason to assume that high-end fantasy production will occur at any point in 2025.
The Vikings will continue to bet on 32-year-old Carson Wentz to steady the ship for now, something that fantasy managers are right to be wary of.
Jake Browning | CIN
Russell Wilson was a mess on Sunday night, and the Falcons got shut out by the Panthers: that makes it quite the accomplishment for Jake Browning to finish our QBi grading metric as the worst quarterback in Week 3.
By a wide margin.
On Sunday in Minnesota, Browning completed as many passes traveling 10+ yards in the air to the Vikings as to his teammates (two) and never looked comfortable against the most aggressive defense in the league. Before a garbage-time touchdown pass to Drew Sample (why would it go where we need and bail us out?!?), his first 25 passes totaled 1.4 fantasy points.
READ MORE: Soppe’s Week 4 Fantasy Football Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em: Analysis for Every Player in Every Game
Next up: the third-most aggressive defense in terms of blitz rate since the beginning of last season.
We are fighting an uphill battle to have Browning support one, never mind two, pass catchers. I’ll address that situation in a bit, but in the scope of Browning, he’s not even a two-QB starter for me on Monday night.
Jakobi Meyers and George Pickens. I like those two receivers more than you, and I’d rather put them in a superflex spot than Browning.
I’d rarely make such a call, but Sunday was that bad, and things might not be any better in this spot.
Jalen Hurts | PHI
We got the complete package from Jalen Hurts on Sunday, and that was good to see.
Passing Splits
- First 10 quarters this season: 38/53 for 270 yards and 0 TD
- Second half on Sunday: 17/24 for 209 pass yards and three TDs
It was nice to get a reminder that, when pressed, Hurts can still get it done through the air. The problem for his pass catchers is that this team is on a dynastic run, and playing from behind isn’t exactly a common occurrence.
We will let the A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith managers worry about that. Regarding Hurts, most of the outcomes are positive. If Philadelphia is up big, it’s because he fueled some success on the ground, and if not, he’ll punish opponents through the air.
There is destined to be a Saquon Barkley game at some point, but you take the good with the bad. I don’t see the Bucs slowing down Hurts (at least one rushing score in 11 of his past 12 healthy regular-season games) this weekend, and that means you’re set up for another high-floor performance at the very least.
Jared Goff | DET
It’s hard to quantify just how good Jared Goff has been, but I’m going to try. Since he had that nationally televised five-pick game in Houston last season, he’s played in 11 regular-season games:
- 74% complete
- 3,310 passing yards
- 28 TD
- 4 INT
- 22.1 fantasy PPG (QB4)
Yeah, that’ll work. He’s completed over 71% of his passes in six straight and typically thrives at home on the fast track.
Typically.
This will be an interesting spot against a Browns defense that wants to grind the clock to a stop. Cleveland’s defense is top five in yards per play, rush yards allowed, and pass yards allowed through three weeks, and the unit gets more time to prepare for Goff than Goff does for them.
If you start Goff weekly, you’re not adding someone from the wire, but I would lower expectations a touch.
Jaxson Dart | NYG
Jaxson Dart was named the starter for the Giants on Tuesday, a move that felt close to inevitable with the team experimenting with packages for him over the past two weeks.
He looked great this preseason, but his fantasy stock is very much TBD in a tough spot and with limited help.
This season was never going to be packed with wins for New York, but now that they are knee-deep in the developmental waters, I think there’s some fantasy upside to chase, with time, as this nucleus grows together.
There will, of course, be plenty of bumps along the way. Consider this offense one of DFS interest for me over time.
Jayden Daniels | WAS
Jayden Daniels will sit for a second consecutive game as he continues to nurse this knee injury. After a convincing win last week with Marcus Mariota under center, the team is electing to take the cautious approach with their franchise QB, understanding that they don’t have a week off until Week 12.
Mariota is again a top streaming candidate for those making last-second decisions, with Geno Smith (vs. CHI) and C.J. Stroud (vs. TEN) widely available viable options.
Joe Burrow | CIN
We spent all offseason wondering aloud if Joe Burrow was the top quarterback in the second tier or if his elite passing numbers were enough to put him in the class of the athletic marvels at the position.
They were fun conversations to have, but they don’t matter now. Burrow (turf toe) is going to be out until December at the very least, and that means he’s going to be cut loose in all leagues that don’t have enough IR room for him. And even then, we aren’t sure the Bengals will be in a position to compete when Burrow returns to the practice field.
I want to use this brutal injury as a launching point. Football is as physically taxing a team sport as there is. That’s obviously more true for some positions than others, but it’s a gladiator sport where everyone on the field isn’t far from a significant injury.
READ MORE: Bengals HC Zac Taylor Hints Joe Burrow Could Return During 2025 NFL Season
The four quarterbacks drafted ahead of Burrow this summer are much more athletic, and their ability to run often gets tied to an increase in injury risk. I understand the train of thought: they invite contact when they are on the move.
That’s accurate.
But what doesn’t get looked at enough is the other side of the coin: that quarterback is also capable of escaping trouble spots at a higher rate than average. No one is catching Jayden Daniels from behind, so while he is at risk of taking punishment, it’s usually coming head-on, and in those spots, he has the opportunity to make a business decision.
I’m not arguing that Burrow is more likely to get hurt than the Danielses of the world, though it is worth noting that he missed six games in 2020 and seven more in 2023. I’m arguing against the assumption that athletic quarterbacks are reckless investments.
Are they risky? Yes, because they play football. Josh Allen’s propensity to take hits is worrisome to the eye, but he’s been huge and taken hits his entire life. There’s something to be said for knowing how to do it, and that’s a big reason why I’ll never shy away from that prototype.
Joe Flacco | CLE
Joe Flacco has thrown a pressured interception in all three weeks this season, and without the ability to threaten defenses with his legs, what will stop defenses from bringing the house on a routine basis?
Nothing. There’s nothing to stop them, and they will continue to do it.
Cleveland is allowing its veterans to feel the heat on 39.8% of non-blitzed dropbacks, the second-highest rate in the NFL through three weeks. There are some interesting players on this roster, but the skill set match simply isn’t there, and this situation seems destined to embrace development sooner rather than later.
Flacco and his two touchdowns on 126 attempts this season obviously do not need to be rostered in any format. There’s flex appeal across the board on this roster, but in a matchup like this, I’m not going out of my way to start a single Brown in Week 4.
Jordan Love | GB
Jordan Love is averaging 8.5 yards per pass this season, and that’s great, but he’s yet to crack fantasy’s top 10 once.
It’ll all come together soon enough.
The Cowboys are struggling to create pressure this season, presumably because they no longer have a man who calls Wisconsin home these days, and that figures to doom them in a major way.
When not pressured this season, Love is 43-of-51 for 560 yards, five touchdowns, and the bad interception against the Browns on Sunday, where he seemed to predetermine where he was going with the ball. That one mistake aside, he’s essentially been flawless, and if Matthew Golden is going to be unleashed, this could be a spike week.
I think Week 3’s dud taught us more about the Browns’ defense than anything about what the Packers can or can’t do without Jayden Reed on the field.
I’m expecting Love to have his best week of the season to date, and that puts him on the radar in all leagues, not to mention as the captain in showdown DFS contests.
Josh Allen | BUF
The evolution of Josh Allen is remarkable to watch, and while I’m not sure it’s ideal for his fantasy stock, it’s likely to continue given the success that the Bills are having with this new version of him.
Allen has completed over 71% of his passes in two of three games to open 2025 and hasn’t thrown an interception since Christmas. We get glimpses of chaotic Allen coming out from time to time (two weird flick passes on Thursday night being the latest example, one of which was a touchdown and the other a very questionable risk to take), but it’s rare. He’s taking what is given to him and trusting his supporting cast.
That’s going to win a lot of games, albeit at the cost of fantasy production sometimes. After carrying 14 times in the opener (two touchdowns), Allen has just 10 carries since and hasn’t scored. James Cook has been great in the traditional run game, while the Khalil Shakir/Dalton Kincaid tandem is one he trusts underneath, not to mention some development of Keon Coleman on that front.
Allen remains an elite fantasy option, don’t get me wrong. Buffalo is in scoring position the second his hands touch the ball, and that’s simply a fact. The leveling up of his quarterback play (at least eight different players have a reception in all three games this season) helps stabilize his weekly value, even if it comes at the cost of some of his ceiling.
I’m not sure there’s a path to significant profit given where you drafted Allen this summer, though I also find it unlikely that he’s the reason your fantasy team underachieves.
Justin Fields | NYJ
Justin Fields was yanked from the Week 2 beatdown against the Bills with a concussion, and the league protocols kept him out last week against the Buccaneers.
We saw the peak of his ability in the thrilling Week 1 loss to the Steelers (9.9 yards per pass with 16.8 points on the ground) and the inconsistencies that made him maddening in Week 2 before departing (3-of-11 passing).
The true version of him obviously rests somewhere in the middle, and with the Dolphins on tap, a ceiling game is certainly possible. That said, this defense competed last week and will benefit from an extended prep week.
I don’t like sitting on the fence, but that’s the play early in the week. As we near the weekend, stay tuned for an updated take. Right now, I have him as a fringe top-15 quarterback. I’m intrigued by his upside and how featured Garrett Wilson is in this offense, but the risk is too high at this moment in time to come out too bullish.
If the practice reports are clean entering the weekend, we are looking at a QB1 whose versatility is a cheat code.
Justin Herbert | LAC
Sunday was a perfect picture of why fantasy analysts everywhere are tripping over themselves to praise Justin Herbert.
Last season, the volume would have disappeared if the Chargers were caught up in a tight divisional game and their quarterback completed under 60% of his passes with a turnover under his belt.
That’s not the case in 2025, and it won’t be the case.
Herbert showcased all of his skills in the final five minutes of the comeback win over the Broncos because he was allowed to. Jim Harbaugh wanted his franchise quarterback to decide the game, for better or worse, and that’s all we can ask for.
Through three weeks, Herbert is averaging 30 fantasy scoring chances (completions plus rushing attempts) per game, and with a talented trio of receivers, his profile looks a lot like 2024 Joe Burrow. He’s elevating the talent around him, and the Najee Harris injury puts even more responsibilities on his shoulders.
The Giants have had their moments on defense this season, but when the opposing offense pushes the gas down on the pass game, they’ve had success – that’s the only speed this offense knows.
Herbert is my QB4 for Week 4, ranking ahead of a potentially limited Jayden Daniels.
Kyler Murray | ARI
It truly feels like we are an unlocked Harrison away from Kyler Murray being labeled as a top-five QB every week. Even with his presumed WR1 struggling, Murray has both a 30+ yard completion and 30+ yards rushing in all three games this season, showcasing the type of floor we love to have access to.
The quality of competition in Weeks 1-2 certainly does factor into his production, especially with a divisional opponent that has traditionally given him fits in the past on the schedule.
Murray hasn’t cleared 19 fantasy points against the Seahawks since Week 11, 2020 (five pass TDs against four interceptions in their past five meetings with just 58 rushing yards over the past three).
I’m more optimistic than that, but not completely sold. He’ll take the field on Thursday night ranked just outside of my top 10 at the position.
Lamar Jackson | BAL
Win, lose. Rain, shine. It doesn’t matter; Lamar Jackson is as good a bet as anyone in the sport to put you in position to win your week.
Not only has he been a top four scorer at the position in all three weeks this season, but he’s also been a top six producer in 14 of his past 22. The floor is so high for a player who has mastered every aspect of this game. If there is any shying away from Derrick Henry due to the recent fumble issues (for the record, I don’t expect there to be), the floor/ceiling combination only improves.
The Lions sacked him seven times and shut down his WR1, which should mean that he struggled. However, he still totaled 323 yards of offense and three scores.
Inevitable.
Marcus Mariota | WAS
Marcus Mariota showcased the type of versatility that you want to see from a streaming quarterback. In a decent spot with Jayden Daniels (knee) again out, you can go back to the well for top-15 production.
The absence of Terry McLaurin certainly caps Mariota’s ceiling (207 passing yards against the Raiders last week should be in line with Week 4 expectations), but your bet here is always one on rushing production.
If you’re skittish on Mariota as a fill-in option, Geno Smith hosting a vulnerable Bears defense is very much in play.
Matthew Stafford | LAR
Matthew Stafford is exactly who he is, and there is some comfort to that.
But there’s essentially no upside.
He’s finished every week this season in the QB15-20 range, and that’s to be expected from a pocket-locked quarterback in this world of athletes.
He’s completed 76.6% of his passes this season when not pressured, and with the Colts creating pressure at the fifth-lowest rate through three weeks (26.8% of opponent dropbacks), this could be an efficient day for the veteran.
Efficient for Stafford means good things for Puka Nacua and Davante Adams. He’d have to be near-perfect to put himself into the top 12 mix, and that’s why he again settles into that middling QB2 tier for me this weekend.
Michael Penix Jr. | ATL
Michael Penix has thrown more touchdowns to the wrong team than the right one over the past two weeks, and that’s generally an indicator of poor fantasy performance.
The pick-6 last week came on an attempted dump-off to Bijan Robinson because … well, why would you expect anything different?
This season, Penix has misfired on 15 of 17 deep throws. That helps explain the Drake London struggles, and things are going to get a lot worse for all involved if he can at least make defenses consider the idea that they are at risk downfield.
I’ve lost hope that Penix will consistently return QB2 value, and now I’m just hoping he can do enough to stabilize his elite teammates.
Patrick Mahomes | KC
As we’ve always said, if you can make Patrick Mahomes beat you from the pocket, you’re safe.
Okay, not exactly, but that’s how things have played out through three weeks. Mahomes has five career games where 45% (or more) of his fantasy points were generated with his legs, and two have come this season.
He was a top 7 QB in both of those weeks.
Against the Giants on Sunday night, Mahomes was contained (two yards on five carries) and finished the week as QB18.
This is a weird time for the Chiefs in terms of their roster. For whatever reason, the Travis Kelce/Mahomes connection isn’t clicking, Xavier Worthy can’t lift his arm above his head, and Rashee Rice still has three weeks left on his suspension.
I think this all figures itself out over time, but in the short term, I’m not going this direction. Mahomes is my QB15 this week, and I fear I’m too high. I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if we are looking at a top-7 quarterback over the final month of the fantasy season (at DAL, vs. HOU, vs. LAC, at TEN, vs. DEN).
Russell Wilson | NYG
Russell Wilson had a career day in Week 2 against the Cowboys, but he wasn’t a top-20 quarterback in either of his other two starts and never really looked comfortable.
The Giants aren’t going anywhere in 2025, no matter what they do under center, and that’s why Tuesday’s decision to hand the keys to Jaxson Dart shouldn’t come as a surprise.
I’m not sure what type of league would have required you to hold onto Wilson up to this point, but you can move on: this is the Dart show, for better or worse.
Sam Darnold | SEA
Sam Darnold orchestrated his first top-20 finish of the season last week (QB9 against the lowly Saints). While I’m not exactly buying the numbers produced against arguably the worst team in the league as sticky, we could see back-to-back productive weeks for the former Panther.
Like the rest of the world, I’ve got my questions about Darnold under duress. We talk about it a lot, and we love to pick apart the negatives, but he’s been pretty good for 13 months now when not under pressure.
Since the beginning of last season, the Cardinals rank 25th in total pressure rate and 26th when they blitz. They struggle to make opponents uncomfortable, and if that means Jaxon Smith-Njigba (22-323-1) can get loose, then we are in business.
If Cooper Kupp finds the fountain of youth for a second straight week? Fuhgeddaboudit.
I’m not saying you start him in season-long leagues, but in a week-long sort of contest that includes all prime-time games?
At cost, I’m interested.
Spencer Rattler | NO
I can’t imagine you need me to tell you that you’re not going the Spencer Rattler direction in Buffalo, but if you do, fine.
Don’t.
Now that we have that hard-hitting analysis out of the way for a QB that hasn’t finished in the top 20 among signal callers in two of three weeks, how about your weird factoid of the day?
This season, Rattler has completed 62.2% of passes when targeting Chris Olave, objectively his most talented pass-catching teammate, and 74% when going to anyone else.
If his accuracy to “the others” sticks, there are upcoming games against the Giants, Bears, and Panthers where you might be able to talk me into an off-the-wall DFS build where we pay up for everything else.
But this isn’t the week for that.
Trevor Lawrence | JAX
Trevor Lawrence has one top-20 finish at the position since Week 9 of last season and has been intercepted in six straight games.
In fantasy football circa 2025, you need to be an elite athlete OR have a strong connection with your top pass catcher to produce. Look up and down the weekly rankings, and one of those two factors will be a part of the profile for any QB you trust.
We thought Lawrence would have both.
From 2022-24, he averaged a rushing score every 3.6 games, and Brian Thomas Jr. put his name in the conversation for the game’s best receivers as a rookie.
Before September ends, we have neither.
Over the past two weeks, Lawrence has 13 yards on four carries and looks hesitant to move the chains with his legs. The rushing production has evaporated, but the lack of continuity with his WR1 is the true black eye on his fantasy profile.
- 7 completions (one of 20+ yards)
- 25 targets
- 0 touchdown receptions
The undefeated 49ers have seen their defense bounce back in a big way through three weeks. Some of their strong metrics are a result of low-end quarterback play, but that’s likely to be the case again this week.
The San Francisco defense is a strong play, and Lawrence isn’t close to my top 20 at the position.
Tua Tagovailoa | MIA
The NFL rate for the percentage of throws traveling 15+ yards in the air annually settles in around 21%. League-wide, this number has been trending downward, but Tua Tagovailoa is taking it to a different level, and that’s an issue when maximizing a player like Tyreek Hill.
He’s been under 17.5% in two of three games this season.
In theory, the run-after-the-catch potential of his weapons makes this a more viable strategy for him than most. Still, when you have the broadcast fawning over his willingness to play within himself in a game where he averages 4.3 yards per completion, we’ve got a problem.
At this point, the bar for Tagovailoa to impress is so low that we will latch onto anything. His quick decision-making on Thursday was a decent step for the Miami franchise, but he’s far from mattering to us.
Without rushing upside or downfield shots, isn’t Tagovailoa what you’d expect from Tom Brady if he came out of retirement?
Tagovailoa is a low-upside option in superflex formats at best this week, and I’m not sure we see that change at any point over the next three months.
