Lineups can swing on just one tough fantasy football start-sit call, especially at quarterback when the stakes are highest in the playoffs. Every matchup brings unknowns, from shifting roles to injuries, so managers often weigh recent trends against defensive strengths and weaknesses. Streaming and matchup-based decisions can pay off, but they also add risk. This guide focuses on helping managers sort through those choices.
Start ‘Em: Tyler Shough, QB, New Orleans Saints (vs. TEN)
Do the New Orleans Saints have their answer at quarterback? Maybe. Tyler Shough has played quite well over the past month, and not just in real life. His fantasy numbers have been there, too.
There are a lot of injuries across the NFL. We will see plenty of teams in the fantasy finals that need a quarterback. Why not Shough?
Over his past four games, Shough has hit 17 points in all of them. He just threw for 308 yards in a game, and the Saints never trailed. In Week 17, he gets a Tennessee Titans pass-funnel defense, allowing the eighth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Shough is absolutely worth a stream.
Caleb Williams, QB, Chicago Bears (at SF)
Amazingly, Caleb Williams got there against the Packers on Saturday night. Granted, it took overtime and a miracle (but perfectly delivered) walk-off to DJ Moore. But he got there.
To give you an idea of the risks of starting Williams, he threw for 250 yards and two touchdowns against the Packers. It was his highest yardage total since Week 9, and just the seventh time this season he’s thrown for multiple touchdowns.
Williams is hot, though. He’s thrown for two touchdowns in three straight games and only has six interceptions on the season.
The problem with Williams is that the Bears have very little interest in calling pass plays. For 3.5 quarters, Ben Johnson made no effort to actually score points against the Packers, content to run the ball and punt over and over again. When the clock and score finally forced the Bears to throw, Williams delivered.
This week, we should see a game where the 49ers push Williams to have to air it out. San Francisco is good enough on offense that if the Bears try and run it repeatedly, they will fall behind. Thus, they either need to come out throwing. Or, they can let themselves fall behind, and we could get another strong second half from Williams.
Sit ‘Em: Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers (vs. HOU)
Somehow, Geno Smith threw for 201 yards and two touchdowns against the Texans. Okay, technically, he threw three touchdowns, but one went to the other team.
The Texans may have escaped with a win, but they certainly aren’t going to be pleased with their defensive performance after allowing the Raiders to post the highest point total against them since Week 9 with 21.
Expect a much better showing from the No. 1 defense in the league this time around. Justin Herbert may be a more imposing opposing passer, but we’ve seen this defense completely shut down Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes.
The Texans allow the second-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Prior to last week’s 30-point effort against the worst pass defense in the league, Herbert had gone five consecutive games without reaching 15 fantasy points. Look for that to resume this week.
Jared Goff, QB, Detroit Lions (at MIN)
Jared Goff has been airing it out lately, with the Lions consistently falling behind in games. He’s attempted a whopping 95 passes over the last two weeks, with the majority of them coming in the second half.
MORE: Free Fantasy Start/Sit Optimizer
As much as the Lions have struggled recently, this is a massive get-right spot. That may seem good for Goff, but the script doesn’t set him up well.
The Lions couldn’t get anything going on the ground last week. Jahmyr Gibbs rushed for two (yes, TWO) yards against the Steelers. That will undoubtedly be a point of emphasis as the Lions prepare for a must-win game on a short week.
Even though the Lions are on the road, they get a Vikings team that upset them in Detroit the last time they played. They are not going to get swept by Minnesota, let alone when they are starting Max Brosmer.
This should be a game where the Lions have a positive game script. We saw them score 44 points against the Cowboys three weeks ago, and Goff didn’t even reach 20 fantasy points. The Vikings allow the fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Everything about this game screams Gibbs and David Montgomery.
