Fantasy football always finds a way to make every matchup feel bigger than it looks on the schedule. Each week, managers are forced to decide whether to trust recent production, chase a matchup, or fade a big name.
Some quarterbacks look like automatic starts until the numbers suddenly cool off, while others only matter when the game script tilts in their favor. Sorting through all that uncertainty is what keeps fantasy football lineups so fascinating every Sunday.
Start ‘Em: Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers (at DET)
If Jordan Love is your only quarterback, you are asking for him to be the reason you don’t win. He cannot be trusted every week. You have to pick your spots.
Love has now failed to throw a touchdown in three of his last four games. He’s also failed to reach 175 yards passing in three straight.
How Love performs is heavily dependent on the game script. Head coach Matt LaFleur knows what he has, or rather, doesn’t have, with Love. Whenever possible, LaFleur will do everything in his power to hide Love.
When the Packers get to face a team quarterbacked by J.J. McCarthy, they can do that. On the road against a very good Detroit Lions team, they probably won’t be able to lean on Josh Jacobs all afternoon.
In Week 1, the Packers dominated the Lions. Love threw for 188 yards, but he did happen to throw two scores. Don’t think the Lions have forgotten what that felt like. The North remembers.
Expect to see the Packers in negative game script and for Love to exceed 30 pass attempts for the first time since Week 10. The Lions are a pass funnel defense, allowing the seventh-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Love should be good for at least 200 and two in this one.
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs (at DAL)
After Week 8, the notion of including Patrick Mahomes in a start/sit column was ridiculous. The whole point of these is to advise fantasy managers on players to start and sit that aren’t super obvious. Of course, you’re starting Mahomes…but do you still feel that way?
Specifically from Weeks 4-8, the Chiefs’ offense was humming. They scored at least 28 points in every game, and Mahomes threw (or ran) for at least two touchdowns in every single one. Since then? Not great.
Mahomes has not rushed for a score since Week 6. Over his last three games, the Chiefs quarterback has thrown a total (yes, total) of one touchdown. But if there ever were a get-right spot, it’s this one.
Thanksgiving Day. Late afternoon. National television. Jerry World. The stage is set for Patrick Mahomes to torch a Dallas Cowboys defense allowing, by far, the most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks.
The Chiefs cannot mess around anymore. They need every game to make the playoffs. It’s hard to fathom they want to give Kareem Hunt 30 carries again in the year 2025. Fire up Mahomes with confidence. If he can’t get it done this week, we can smash the panic button.
Sit ‘Em: Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers (at CLE)
Brock Purdy is so much better than he gets credit for. The fact that anyone seriously discussed the notion of Mac Jones keeping the starting job is blasphemous.
In four starts, Purdy has now INSERT STATS HERE AFTER MONDAY NIGHT. He’s clearly a very good quarterback, and a good fantasy quarterback as well. But this matchup is a problem.
The Cleveland Browns are coming off a game in which they sacked Geno Smith 10 times. Of course, the San Francisco 49ers are much better than the Las Vegas Raiders. But that doesn’t mean Purdy will be someone you’re glad you started in fantasy.
The Browns allow the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. They are a nothing funnel. You can’t throw on them, and you certainly can’t run on them.
San Francisco will probably find a way to win this game, but it will be ugly, low scoring, and involve a lot of defense. This is not the week to deploy Purdy.
Daniel Jones, Indianapolis Colts (vs. HOU)
Even when it looks like Daniel Jones is about to come crashing back down, he finds a way to get it done. The Indianapolis Colts quarterback has not been as great over his past three games. Yet, he’s still managed to post at least 16.5 fantasy points in each of them. Jones has gone below 15.8 fantasy points just once this season…but he’s yet to face the Houston Texans.
It’s the NFL. Anything can happen. Jones could go out there and throw for 300 yards and three touchdowns, and we’d chalk it up to “That’s football.” But it’s certainly not likely.
The Texans allow the second fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. They are the only defense in the league that has not surrendered a single QB1 performance this season. Did you see what they did to Josh Allen last week?
This defense is terrifying, and fantasy managers should be justifiably afraid of starting anyone against it. Jones cannot be in Week 13 lineups with playoff spots on the line.
