Soppe’s Updated Week 9 Fantasy Football Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em: Analysis for Every Player in Every Game

This game of ours is one of very little separation, and that makes every decision critical. As much as I’d love to help each of you with your specific fantasy football questions (I’ll try — @KyleSoppePFN), that’s a big ask.

What I can give you, every single week, are my takes. My statistical-backed rankings are available, but you, the devoted fantasy manager, need more than simply a number next to a name. You need to know why I stand where I do, and that’s my goal with this novel.

If you have a question, hit me up on X, but my hope is that this extended piece will give you the insight you’re looking for without relying on me landing on your specific question before lineups lock.

You don’t have to get ready if you stay ready — this piece is me staying ready to help you win the week!

Quarterbacks

Aaron Rodgers | PIT (vs IND)

Aaron Rodgers has to be the QB with only one weekly finish better than 10th at the position that I fear the most in the NFL.

He looks reasonably comfortable and is largely delivering the ball on time in this conservative attack. The future Hall of Famer truly is a litmus test for just how much single-play upside, either with your legs or via air yards via the pass, dictates finishes at the position on a week-to-week basis.

Rodgers does neither. He’s yet to have a game with 10 rushing yards this season (not a surprise) and has seven completions of 20+ air yards in his seven starts.

For reference, Justin Herbert has a 10+ yard rush (not 10+ yards rushing, a single rushing play picking up what Rodgers can’t do in a game) in six games this season, and Russell Wilson had a single contest with seven such completions.

Rodgers looks poised and on schedule. He looks like he can lead an offense in real life, but counting on him in fantasy just can’t be done. He’s thrown multiple touchdown passes in three straight and completed at least two-thirds of his passes in five; he’s functioning at about as high a level as he can in this situation and not giving us the returns we need.

This obviously isn’t a good matchup, but he’s the opposite of matchup-proof: I wouldn’t feel comfortable playing him in any spot.

Andy Dalton | CAR (at GB)

I’m not saying Bryce Young isn’t the problem, but this Carolina offense might just be a pig, and putting lipstick on it with Andy Dalton doesn’t change that.

The wily vet had nearly as many sacks (seven) as completions in enemy territory over the weekend (nine,) and that was in a game where they ran the ball reasonably well, albeit on low volume due to the score (Panther RBs: 24 carries for 104 yards).

He did the one thing we needed him to do: feed Tetairoa McMillan. The rookie earned a 43.5% target share, and that’s the only job of the Carolina QB at this point. In that regard, I prefer him to Young, but at some point, it doesn’t matter: the volume is enough to justify starting the talented receiver, but not of high enough quality to give him much of a ceiling.

Bo Nix | DEN (at HOU)

Bo Nix hasn’t exactly looked like a superstar at various points this season, and yet, there are only a few who offer a similar production resume.

His first 20-point game of the season came in Week 2, and since then, from Weeks 2-8, there are only three QBs in the sport with more 20+ point efforts than the leader of the Broncos: Patrick Mahomes, Dak Prescott, and Drake Maye.

In a vacuum, I’d take all three over Nix, but in Year 2, we are seeing the development of a future star.

Again, far from perfect. Sometimes the volume isn’t there (four games with 30 or fewer pass attempts), and sometimes the rushing vanishes (under 2.5 yards per carry three times), but at the end of 60 minutes, you’re more likely than not to be OK with where things finish.

Last week, he took advantage of a cushy matchup against the Cowboys, throwing four touchdowns. The raw number of scores was nice, but I was impressed by the variation: a nice blend of touch, anticipation, and savvy.

Most of his advanced box score is very much in line with what he did last season, though I will highlight his improved approach when attacking downfield. Last season, on 126 deep throws, he was intercepted just as often as he found his man for a touchdown. This season, he’s at a 3.0 TD/INT rate on those spike attempts, something that elevates the ceiling while also raising the floor, as he’s taking what he’s given and not prematurely ending possessions.

This is a tough spot, but I think you can feel comfortable in starting him this week, knowing that he has various avenues to productivity.

Brock Purdy | SF (at NYG)

It’s now been over a month since the last time we saw Brock Purdy (toe), and the 49ers are being understandably cautious with him.

I think fantasy managers can be, too.

We really only have two quarterbacks of interest on a bye this week (Jalen Hurts and Baker Mayfield … Justin Fields counts if you signed up for that experience, but I’d assume you already have a secondary option rostered in that event), and that opens up the door to streamers that I’d prefer over Purdy should he return this week.

Joe Flacco gets the Bears, Sam Darnold the Commanders, and Matthew Stafford the Saints.

Players like Lamar Jackson are the ones I worry about missing on a big game in their return to action. Purdy could author a big game, but I think the risk/reward equation nets out as about even, and that has me generally waiting for him to play a game for San Francisco before he plays one for my fantasy team.

Bryce Young | CAR (at GB)

An ankle injury sidelined Bryce Young (one finish better than QB15 this season) last week, opening the door for Andy Dalton to do his best Bryce Young impersonation.

I want to believe that this franchise has already hit rock bottom and that things can only go up from here, but that doesn’t mean it’ll happen quickly. There are some intriguing players on this roster, so once the QB situation gets figured out (either via development or restart), I think there’s a season where the corresponding pieces are had at a bargain.

That year does not appear to be 2025.

We can hope for 2026.

C.J. Stroud | HOU (vs DEN)

Did C.J. Stroud unlock something last week against the 49ers?

With Nico Collins (concussion) and Christian Kirk (hamstring) both sidelined, he threw for 318 yards (a season high by 74 yards) and two scores while rushing a season-high seven times for 30 yards.

#Texans C.J. Stroud extremely happy about return of Nico Collins, Christian Kirk and taking offense to a ‘higher level’ @KPRC2 pic.twitter.com/77lm7kJzvG

— Aaron Wilson (@AaronWilson_NFL) October 29, 2025

I’d love to sell you on him turning a corner and, thus, the return of his more proven receivers, only further elevating his status moving forward, but I’m not buying it.

What we saw was the byproduct of a good offensive line week. Maybe more aptly, a poor defensive line week.

The 49ers rank 28th in non-blitz pressure rate, and that ranking is sinking due to their injuries on that side of the ball. This meant that Stroud was pressured on 23.8% of his dropbacks — a big change from the first seven weeks (35.6%) — and he took advantage.

Great to see, but tough to sustain unless you think this offensive line magically improved in a significant way.

Denver ranks fourth this season in non-blitz pressure rate, and if that’s the case on Sunday, Stroud’s fifth week outside of the top 20 at the position is probably more likely than his third QB1 finish of 2022, no matter who he is throwing to.

Caleb Williams | CHI (at CIN)

Did you know that Caleb Williams is fantasy’s 15th-best quarterback this season?

Maybe you did, but did you know that if you remove Dallas from the NFL, he’d be QB25?

• Week 3 vs DAL: 4 TDs on 28 passes
• All Other Weeks of 2025: 5 TDs on 195 passes

One big game is holding a lot of weight when it comes to his season-long numbers, and while that’s concerning long-term, he does find himself in another great spot this week.

I liked that we saw him complete a season-high six deep passes last week against the Ravens, and we might see a similar level of aggression to keep up with Joe Flacco and the Ja’Marr Chase.

The rushing totals have been sporadic. We know the athletic capabilities are there, and if they are unleashed in this spot, I truly think a top-5 week is possible.

Without them, he probably settles in as a low-end QB1, rubbing elbows with Bo Nix in a much more difficult matchup (at HOU).

Cameron Ward | TEN (vs LAC)

Cam Ward continues to seek his first multi-TD pass game of his career, so while it’s nice to see some reasonable yardage totals through the air (255+ yards in three of four games in October), he’s still nowhere near fantasy radars in one-QB leagues.

Great job from Cam Ward stepping up and finding Elic Ayomanor, but the rocket launcher is frankly out of control at this stage pic.twitter.com/90qvvTFfQS

— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) October 29, 2025

The return of Calvin Ridley helps his upside case, but it doesn’t mitigate the low floor that comes with this rookie’s development. Ward has been sacked at least four times in three straight games and six times this season: this isn’t a situation built for fantasy success.

Will that change in 2026?

We can only hope.

Dak Prescott | DAL (vs ARI)

Unless you believe the Cardinals will emerge from their bye with a newfound focus on the defensive side of the ball, I think you can look past last week’s dud for Dak Prescott in Denver.

In much the same way that the Cowboys are a performance-enhancing defense for their opponents, Denver suppresses numbers across the board, and Dallas’ start was no exception (19-of-31 for 188 yards, zero touchdowns, and two interceptions).

Prescott entered the game on a near-historic hot streak (four straight games with 3+ TD passes and zero interceptions). While I think that’s probably overshooting expectations, it’s far more likely this is a Jacoby Brissett/Prescott shootout than a one-sided beatdown like what we saw a week ago.

He’s had two awful games this season, both on the road against defenses that can look like the best in the sport (Eagles and Broncos). A home game against the Cardinals (seventh-highest deep CMP% allowed since Week 4) is a little different, and with his playmakers fully healthy, I think you should feel good about Prescott returning to the top 10 at the position.

Daniel Jones | IND (at PIT)

Daniel Jones’s managers got a nice gift last week, as a tiny little flip that easily could have been a handoff resulted in Jonathan Taylor’s third score of the week and added to your bottom line despite Jones really not playing much of a role in the touchdown.

The leader of statistically the best offense in the league now has multiple TD tosses in four straight games, the longest active streak in the NFL.

Sometimes in this game of ours, you can be a victim of your own success. Dimes has yet to throw 35 passes in a game this season, and he’s thrown for more than seven yards just three times, simply because there is no need.

Those are limiting factors when it comes to his upside, especially if you think this game could be a lower-possession type of contest, but the floor is just so high that I can’t rank him lower than QB8 for Week 9.

Drake Maye | NE (vs ATL)

Drake Maye is averaging 21.7 fantasy points this season, a number that ranks favorably to what Joe Burrow (19.6) and Josh Allen (17.4) did through the first eight games of their second season.

Yes, he’s already flirting with that company.

He’s run for 50+ yards in consecutive games, thrown for multiple scores in six of his past seven, and ramped up his efficiency in a way that none of us could have possibly dreamed (6.7 YPA last season, 9.0 this season).

Before last week, I’d call this a tough matchup, but the Dolphins got whatever they wanted against the Dirty Birds over the weekend, and I think we can agree that the Patriots have a few more levers at their disposal than Miami.

I still think the Falcons have an above-average defense, but I also think Maye is approaching the elite tier when it comes to fantasy signal-callers, and that tier is immune to matchup downgrades.

It’s not out of the question for Maye to be fantasy’s best QB this week, and that means you’re playing him with all sorts of confidence in season-long.

For DFS, I’m more intrigued by the cheaper and more stackable options at the position, given some matchups. Nailing the QB position is going to be a must in the Daily streets this week with Lamar Jackson, Dak Prescott, and Jayden Daniels all off the main slate: if you think Maye keeps rolling, you swallow the price tag and work around it.

Geno Smith | LV (vs JAX)

We are at Halloween, and Geno Smith has as many multi-interception games as he does starts with multiple TD passes.

He’s misfired on eight of 11 deep passes over the past month and has more incompletions than completions inside the opponents’ 20-yard line.

In short, he’s doing nothing at an average level, and we’ll need to see drastic improvement for him even to grace our streaming radar. We are past the point of asking Smith to produce for us and simply hoping that he can lead an offense that gets the few pieces we are invested in some production.

J.J. McCarthy | MIN (at DET)

Facing the Lions in Detroit is a tough reintroduction to the NFL, but that’s the situation J.J. McCarthy finds himself in as he’s progressed through the recovery process for his ankle injury.

Having two strong receivers and an offensive savant as the play caller is a good setup. Still, we saw Carson Wentz struggle to give us anything close to viable fantasy production, and while the bar is a little higher for this second-year QB, expecting him to make an impact in one-QB fantasy leagues isn’t wise.

McCarthy had one good quarter before getting hurt, so we need to see much more before considering investing.

That said, the pieces are in place, including the schedule Minnesota runs through the NFC East in Weeks 14-16 (Commanders, Cowboys, Giants), in what could be the best run McCarthy has this season, production-wise.

Will it be enough to hit your lineup? Probably not, but stashing him if we see signs of life this week and you’re without a Tier 1 signal-caller isn’t a crazy thought.

Jacoby Brissett | (vs DAL)

Jacoby Brissett has already started two games in place of an injured Kyler Murray, and they went … pretty well. The veteran journeyman posted QB1 numbers in both with 21.7 and 19.8 fantasy points. While one came against the Colts’ pass-funnel defense, the other came against the Packers.

Are we sure Murray is even a better option than Brissett?

Fantasy managers probably shouldn’t plan to start Brissett this week. There are plenty of safer options. But if you need the Cardinals quarterback, he hasn’t been bad at all.
The Cowboys are an everything funnel defensively. They’re allowing the most or second-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, running backs, and wide receivers. How will the Cardinals score? However they want.

Given the state of the Cardinals’ running game with Michael Carter, Bam Knight, and Emari Demercado leading the show, it’s more likely they lean on their passing attack, though. Plus, every Cowboys game is a shootout, and Prescott will ensure the Cardinals have to score to win this game.

Brissett is absolutely on the streaming radar.

Jared Goff | DET (vs MIN)

The Jared Goff efficiency tour made all sorts of noise last season (72.4% completion rate with over three touchdowns per interception) and is clicking at an even higher rate this season (74.9% completion rate and 5.0 TD/INT through seven games this season).

This Minnesota matchup can be tricky for the uninitiated, but as a divisional opponent, Goff is anything but that. His completion percentage against the Vikings in 2024 was higher than Jayson Tatum’s career free-throw percentage.

Think about that.

One of the better scorers in the world is less likely to make an unguarded, 15-foot shot than Goff was to complete a pass against an aggressive defense that thrives on chaos and has 11 of the world’s best athletes trying to prevent it from happening.

The lack of rushing upside is always going to limit the projected upside of Goff, but he’s one of the few pocket passers that we can trust, and this matchup is no different.

Jaxson Dart | NYG (vs SF)

Jaxson Dart has been a usable piece in four of five starts this season, aided greatly by his ability to find paydirt with his legs. He’s done it in three straight games and will be asked to do some serious heavy lifting in this offense now that Cam Skattebo (ankle) has been lost for the season.

I think Tyrone Tracy can be a serviceable replacement, but we are talking about an offensive shift and a comfort dynamic that is hard to quantify. Skattebo was a heat-seeking missile, and that allowed Dart to pick his spots.

He was also a strong pass-catching option thanks to his RAC skills: Tracy can fill the same role, but not in the same way.

The comfort thing is tricky to quantify. I expect some form of a learning curve, but the banged-up 49ers are a pretty good landing spot. Dart is a low-end QB1 thanks to his versatility and creativity, a ranking I hope he improves on next week (at CHI) after we have a full game of data in this post-Skattebo era.

Jayden Daniels | WAS (vs SEA)

All reporting last week suggested that the low-grade hamstring injury that Jayden Daniels suffered in Week 7 had a great chance of only costing him the one game, and I’m inclined to follow that logic.

With that game on Monday night, they opted to give him the week off rather than push him to play and risk a short week recovery. This is the type of move a forward-thinking franchise makes, especially one with long-term plans.

The Seahawks are a tough matchup on a good day, let alone after their bye. That said, they’ve played three QBs with some shiftiness in their profile (Kyler Murray, Baker Mayfield, and Trevor Lawrence), and all three of them cleared 16 fantasy points.

I’d be surprised if Daniels threatened the top of the quarterback scoring board this week, but that doesn’t mean you should hesitate in playing him. He’s a rare talent, and if Washington feels good about putting him out there, we should, too.

Joe Flacco | CIN (vs CHI)

Joe Flacco has accounted for three touchdowns in both of his starts with the Bengals (five passing and one rushing) and is essentially playing like a restrained, old version of Jameis Winston.

Over half of his passes have been directed at (arguably) the best receiver in the game, and when that’s taken away, he doesn’t hesitate to put Tee Higgins in position to flip the field.

The Bears haven’t exactly played much QB competence this season, but when they have, they’ve struggled (Goff and Daniels both cleared 21 fantasy points against them).

Flacco is my QB14 this week. That may feel a bit low, but with no rushing upside (sorry if I’m not counting on the QB sneak from last week) and some players in this general range in plus spots (Caleb Williams on the other side of this matchup and Jordan Love facing the Panthers), I don’t have the grizzled vet as a starter in most standard-sized leagues unless you’re dealing with injury/bye issues.

I do think he’ll be a popular DFS piece because of the lineup he can build around. Is a chalky Flacco the way to spend this Sunday afternoon?

I don’t think I’ll get there. If you do, I’d advise prioritizing some unique combinations elsewhere.

Jordan Love | GB (vs CAR)

You can spin the numbers whatever way you want, but Jordan Love looked as comfortable on a professional football field on Sunday night as I can remember. He controlled the Steelers all night long, completed 29-of-37 passes, and made a play every time his number was called.

Did a few plays go his way?

Of course, but he put his talented teammates in a position to succeed. I found it interesting that Love recorded the second-lowest average depth of target of his season in the return of Christian Watson, but again, I think that speaks to his maturity.

If Green Bay asks Love to drop back 37 times this week like they did last, he figures to be knocking on the door of the top 5 at the position, but I tend to doubt it as a double-digit favorite.

Before Week 8, Love was averaging 17.1 fantasy points per game, and I think that’s the more likely outcome in this spot that should feature a heavy dose of Josh Jacobs.

If you have him, you’re playing him and encouraged by the long-term outlook.

Josh Allen | BUF (vs KC)

Josh Allen pushed across a pair of short touchdowns, which allowed him to regain his elite fantasy form that he had disappeared for a bit. He now has four top-10 finishes this season and remains a Tier 1 option, even if he’s averaging just 194.3 passing yards since that Week 1 comeback against the Ravens.

He now holds the record for career games with a rush and a pass TD (46), and he brings that versatility into a matchup that could prove to be a preview of the AFC Championship.

Allen has reached double-digit rushing attempts in each of his past seven games against the Chiefs, and if that trend continues, his raw skills put him in a position to overcome this tough matchup.

Facing Allen is a difficult task for any defense, let alone one on a short week. I rank him over Patrick Mahomes this week by a single spot: this is going to be a fun one, though it wouldn’t shock me if this game is a little lower-scoring than the masses believe, as both coaching staffs aim to keep the opposing MVP off the field.

Justin Herbert | LAC (at TEN)

What we saw from Herbert was just as special as you thought it was in the moment.

• 3 pass TDs
• 9.1 yards per pass
• 62 rushing yards

It was his second such game like that and just the 10th in the NFL since the start of 2018 (Lamar Jackson has six of them, while Josh Allen and Kyler Murray have one apiece).

Is he essentially a less refined postseason Patrick Mahomes? That is, someone who can kill you from the pocket and is willing to make the big play at the right moment with his legs?

That’s setting the bar a little high, and there are still some glitches in the decision-making, but Jim Harbaugh has empowered his quarterback to such a degree that I trust him as a fringe Tier 1 option at the position.

This matchup is great, though you need to worry a bit about the game script. You’re playing Herbert weekly without a second thought, and you better make it count: you’re not getting him at nearly the price you did this summer heading into the 2022 season.

Kirk Cousins | ATL (at NE)

Kirk Cousins drew the Dolphins for his first start of the season, but he was a mess with Drake London a late-week scratch.

In the 24-point loss, he turned 31 pass attempts into just 7.1 fantasy points (no completions to the wide receiver position in the first quarter). There was some speculation that Cousins, filling in for an injured Michael Penix, could actually elevate the status of his pass catchers, but this offense never got going.

Atlanta is what Atlanta is, and my opinion of this team isn’t going to change based on the quarterback position. London (when healthy) and Bijan Robinson are weekly must-starts, while Kyle Pitts is a streaming option.

What I learned from this game is that there isn’t room for a WR2. Darnell Mooney was a no-show, and if targets are going to be tough to come by outside of the featured options, he’s on the very fringes of roster-worthy in most formats.

Mac Jones | SF (at NYG)

Mac Jones filled in again for Brock Purdy (toe) last week in Houston, and the production was predictably limited.

He’s thrown for under 200 yards in each of his past two games and completed a season-low 59.4% of his passes in a tough matchup. Jones held his own, all things considered, health-wise on this roster, but this is Purdy’s offense when he’s able to return, and it sounds like we are nearing that time.

The 49ers face the Titans, Colts, and Bears to close the season. For that reason, I’m holding onto him if I can until Purdy proves that he is a full-go.

Marcus Mariota | WAS (vs SEA)

These backup quarterbacks seem to have some initial success, only to regress as their film circulates through the league.

Marcus Mariota completed 70% of his passes on Monday night in Kansas City, a nice accomplishment, but he put up only seven points and looked out of sorts after the opening script ran dry.

Mariota has 20+ rushing yards in every appearance this season, and that at least gives him a path to QB2 production should he be called upon again this season. Still, in one-QB leagues, this isn’t a player I’m interested in streaming even in that situation.

Matthew Stafford | LAR (vs NO)

Matthew Stafford put on a clinic in London before the bye with his 18th career game of 4+ TD passes (three in the first half), not bad for someone missing the most productive receiver in the sport.

The Stafford profile is no secret: dead accuracy with no versatility. The running game has yet to get on track, and it’s safe to label that as a priority for this 5-2 team that has its eyes set on a playoff run this winter.

Even with Nacua back, I have a hard time seeing this as a high-volume game, which caps the ceiling for his veteran QB. The matchup obviously isn’t a concern, and that has Stafford just ahead of the streaming tier, but without access to a top-5 week, I can’t go much higher than that.

Michael Penix Jr. | ATL (at NE)

The knee bone bruise to Michael Penix elevated Cousins into starting duties last week, and it shouldn’t have mattered to your fantasy team at all.

After an encouraging Week 1, the mobility has completely vanished from this profile, and, in 2025, if you can’t run or throw deep, you’re drawing dead.

20+ Air Yard Throws

• 2024: 36.8% complete
• 2025: 17.4% complete

The second-year signal caller is four-of-23 on those throws this season and has one score on 42 such attempts in his career. This Falcons offense has talent, but it has a giant question mark at quarterback, and that’s a major problem.

Patrick Mahomes | KC (at BUF)

There were only four quarterbacks to throw for 36 touchdowns last season.

There were only three quarterbacks to run for 595 yards last season.

Through eight weeks, Patrick Mahomes is pacing to do both, and the scariest part is that I believe his best football is ahead of him.

After a slow start, all the former MVP did in the second half against the Commanders was complete 17-of-19 passes for 210 yards and three scores.

No big deal.

With Rashee Rice nearing full speed, forcing this offense to punt a single time feels like an accomplishment, and that means that Mahomes has very much reentered the top tier at the position for fantasy purposes.

You got a nice discount based on the past few seasons. Enjoy it. I can tell you right now that the 2026 price tag is going to be significantly more prohibitive: take advantage of the super team you have now.

Sam Darnold | SEA (at WAS)

The volume isn’t quite the same, but you could have made a lot of money forecasting Sam Darnold to average more fantasy points per pass this season than last.

Fantasy Points Per Pass Attempt

• 2024 with Vikings: 0.53
• 2025 with Seahawks: 0.57

After a strong start to the season, Washington has struggled to create pressure without the courtesy of the blitz, and that means one of two things is likely to happen on Sunday night: (1) Darnold is comfortable in a clean pocket or (2) the Commanders are left vulnerable on the back-end as a result of needing to crowd the line of scrimmage.

Realistically, I’m OK with either result, but which adventure you believe is most likely for them to choose impacts where Darnold ranks among the pocket-locked QBs this week.

Sam Darnold Splits

• 2024, when blitzed: 66.4% complete and 133.6 rating
  • 2025, when blitzed: 59.3% complete and 92.9 rating
• 2024, when not pressured: 73.7% complete, 8.2 yards per attempt
  • 2025, when not pressured: 78.7% complete, 10.3 yards per attempt

With Seattle coming off the bye, I’m more bullish on Darnold in this spot than the industry norm and see him as a threat to the top 12 at the position, even without an expectation of any points on the ground.

Spencer Rattler | NO (at LAR)

Spencer Rattler was replaced by Tyler Shough in the third quarter last week, and this feels like a move toward the future for an organization that has no choice but to be playing the long game.

Over his last six games, Rattler has had just five touchdown tosses (five interceptions) and has been unable to get this offense into scoring position on any regular basis.

Shough was a second-round pick in April, and while he’s an older rookie (26), the team will want to see what he brings to the table before they prepare for a 2026 draft that will see them again picking high.

Trevor Lawrence | JAX (at LV)

Trevor Lawrence has been a tough watch for the majority of this season.

That’s a statement of fact, not opinion.

It’s also a fact that, at least recently, it hasn’t mattered. Jacksonville is coming off their bye, and in the three weeks prior, there were four QBs to score 17+ fantasy points in each of the three weeks prior:

• Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, Dak Prescott, and Lawrence

That’s the company that Lawrence has kept in no other regard this season, but there aren’t pictures in the fantasy box scores, and his usage patterns trumped his lack of efficiency in October. He had 10 rushes or 42 passes in all three of his October games, and if given that many chances to produce, even a QB not seeing the field at a high level can hit lineups.

The Raiders are tracking to finish in the bottom quarter of the league in pressure rate for a second straight season, and Lawrence has five touchdowns against zero interceptions when not pressured over his last four games.

I’m not selling you on Lawrence as a week-maker or DFS lineup staple, but if you’re without Jalen Hurts or Baker Mayfield, I think he should very much be on your short list.

Tyler Shough | NO (at LAR)

Tyler Shough threw 30 passes in what was essentially extended mop-up duty last week against the Buccaneers, and he predictably struggled (17-of-30 for 128 yards and an interception).

I’m not the least bit confident that he turns into even a top 20 QB the rest of the way, but there are talented players by his side, and that, at the very least, makes him interesting in Superflex situations.

The Saints still have both Carolina games ahead of them in addition to matchups with the Dolphins (Week 13) and Titans (Week 17). In those deeper formats, if Shough can show signs of life, he might prove to be a worthwhile add.

I’m not counting on it, but in those formats, starting quarterbacks don’t live on the wire, and once Shough has this job, I suspect it’s his for the rest of the season.

Running Backs

Aaron Jones Sr. | MIN (at DET)

Aaron Jones got the first carry last week in his return to action and has had a long week to prepare for this game physically, but this is a committee situation at best, and his recent profile looks more like a fall-forward back than one with any real upside.

Last 7 Games (Playoffs Included)

• 90.1% gain rate
• 4.2% 10+ yard gain rate

Getting past the line of scrimmage is a skill, and Jones still has that, but without much splash-play upside to speak of, splitting duties makes him a tough sell.

Jordan Mason doesn’t provide much competition in the passing game, and that’s where your hope rests. I expect them to be playing from behind this week, and for that to be a common theme over the next two months, but again, you’re gambling on a player without access to a real ceiling.

If you’re stuck, there’s a path to an ugly 10 PPR points, but I’d rather not look anywhere on this roster for value outside of Justin Jefferson.

Alvin Kamara | NO (at LAR)

Alvin Kamara has three straight games without a rush gaining more than seven yards, four straight with under 12 rush attempts, seven straight without a touchdown, and 48 straight without a 25+ yard rush.

Outside of that, all is well for those hoping that Father Time would wait at least one more year to sap the upside from this 30-year-old running back.

This offense is struggling to cross midfield, and without a profile that includes chunk plays or high-end volume, I’m not exactly sure how Kamara can reverse course on what has been a dismal season up to this point, aside from a trade.

The Rams are coming off their bye and have only allowed one running back to hit 15 PPR points this season. That was Christian McCaffrey in Week 5.

It’s hard to find a ton of running backs I feel great about at this point of the season, so it should tell you something that I still like the prospects of 25 RBs over what Kamara brings to the table in this matchup.

Some bust seasons come out of nowhere. This isn’t one of them. I argued that the writing was on the wall entering last season and proved to be wrong, but the foundation of that take was strong.

If you’re swimming upstream with a Kamara-led backfield, it’s because you opted to prioritize resume over reality, a mistake that has undone many a fantasy manager in the past.

Ashton Jeanty | LV (vs JAX)

Ashton Jeanty has seen his yards per carry before contact increase from 0.19 to 1.12 in October, still an underwhelming number, but certainly a step in the right direction for the supporting cast.

Despite the improvements up front, the sixth overall pick doesn’t have a carry gaining more than 13 yards this month and is averaging just 3.8 yards per carry in those contests.

Let’s call this what it is: an uneven rookie season.

We were expecting greatness, and that’s clearly not in the cards for Year 1. Some weeks, we see explosive runs. Other weeks, we see a handful of targets.

Breadcrumbs are being laid, but not nearly enough for me to forecast top 10 value the rest of the way. Jeanty was overdrafted this summer, and the scar tissue from that could result in a nice post-hype price tag entering 2026.

We can cross that bridge when we get to it. For the rest of this season, Jeanty is to be viewed as a fine RB2 thanks to a stable role. The range of outcomes is broad, something that isn’t surprising for a strong prospect in an iffy situation, and should be accounted for as we move into the second half of the season.

Bhayshul Tuten | JAX (at LV)

Travis Etienne hasn’t impressed, but the Jags haven’t been willing to expand Bhayshul Tuten’s role, and that has the rookie profiling as nothing more than a speculative handcuff at best.

We’ve yet to see him reach a 30% snap share, and he hasn’t cleared five touches in over a month. This is an above-average offensive line when it comes to run blocking, and that’s enough to keep my interest in a handcuff back should my roster allow for a stash player, but he’s certainly a cut candidate if you find yourself in a crunch.

Bijan Robinson | ATL (at NE)

If the Falcons weasel their way into the postseason, could a 24+ point loss to the Dolphins and Panthers go down as the worst pair of outcomes by a playoff team in the history of the sport?

It’s subjective, obviously, but goodness does this Atlanta offense have a wide range of weekly outcomes.

Robinson was sucked into the vortex last week, recording just 5.8 PPR points, 10.3 points below his previous season low. It looked like he had a chance to turn the corner early in the second half after a 17-yard catch, but he lost his first fumble of the season on the next play, undoing almost all of the gains from the play prior.

He cost you this week, and you need to get over it.

Robinson is one of the best in the game, and this offense runs through him, no matter who is under center. A matchup against the only team yet to allow a running back to rush for 50 yards obviously isn’t ideal, but he doesn’t need to put up a big rushing day to help you.

Don’t get cute or fall for a trade offer as deadlines approach. You have a true game-changer on your roster and would be wise to hang onto him.

Blake Corum | LAR (vs NO)

If you’re really trying to get in the weeds, sure, as a big favorite, you talk yourself into flex appeal from a player in Blake Corum who handled 13 touches in Week 7 thanks to a 28-point win.

That work resulted in 5.3 fantasy points.

You’d be taking on a ton of risk by assuming a blowout (through two months — haven’t we learned not to assume anything?) without the certainty of efficiency.

Corum is a great handcuff, but that’s all he was. The former third-round selection is averaging 4.7 yards per carry and would be an interesting flex option if he walked into a 15+ touch role, but we aren’t going to get there as long as Kyren Williams is active.

Brashard Smith | KC (at BUF)

Brashard Smith has just one game this season with 5+ touches, and it was the Week 7 shutout of the Raiders, a game in which the starters were yanked before the third quarter ended.

We are still a little ways away from serious lineup consideration here, but the rookie does need to be rostered. Before not being used much last week, Smith had 3+ catches in four straight games, and that’s his path toward redraft value.

Isiah Pacheco runs as hard as anyone in the league, and Kareem Hunt is picking up red zone duties, but neither has made a massive impact as a pass catcher this season.

Smith averaged 10.2 yards per catch during his four-year college career and caught 39 balls in the one season he was used as a featured back.

It should be noted that we are having issues trusting any Chiefs running back these days, so asking Smith to elevate into the weekly conversation is probably a bit much, but a bailout option in a time of need?

I wouldn’t rule it out. Make sure he’s not still a free agent in all of your leagues now and hope to benefit later.

I wouldn’t rule it out. Make sure he’s not still a free agent in all of your leagues now and hope to benefit later. He’s a must-add if this backfield is at full strength, but it’s not. Isiah Pacheco is dealing with a knee injury labeled a “week-to-week” situation by some reports, which could open the door for Smith to see his snap rate spike.

If we can get a handful of carries and targets in a top 5 offense, Smith would project as a top 30 running back in PPR formats and completely viable flex.

Cam Skattebo | NYG (vs SF)

This one hurt to the core.

Losing a surprise weekly fantasy asset is one thing, but when someone seems to play the game with the joy that we play the fantasy version, and they suffer a devastating injury, it sticks with us.

Skattebo will miss the remainder of the season with a dislocated ankle. He entered Week 8 having run for 55+ yards in five straight games, matching the longest streak by a Giants rookie during the 2000s (Saquon Barkley did it in 2018).

He’s a player to watch when it comes to the recovery trail, as he did plenty to earn himself the top spot on this depth chart heading into the 2026 season. But his fun rookie season is now in the books, with Tyrone Tracy set to pick up the slack in an offense that has now lost their two most exciting skill position players to brutal injuries.

Chase Brown | CIN (vs CHI)

It’s hard to say that we are all the way back on a running back after a week in which he didn’t lead his team in rushing and posted a modest 9.1% target share. But given where Chase Brown managers were B.F. (Before Flacco, for those not in the know), last week was a monumental step forward in the loss to the Jets.

• 12 carries
• 73 yards
• 1 rushing TD
• 3 catches
• 32 yards
• 1 receiving TD

He looked good from the jump. His first tote went for seven yards, and the third for 22. I’m going to stop shy of saying that he was playing at the level that we saw a year ago. But the high-IQ play of the day (a well-defended flea flicker that he opted not to blindly toss back to Flacco and instead turned a disaster into an 11-yard gain) was a reminder of the type of RB we were excited about back in August.

His performance on Sunday was better than his previous two best games combined this season, and there’s no denying that the change under center is raising all boats.

• With Flacco: 23 carries for 181 yards
• Without Flacco: 74 carries for 202 yards

Running backs with a versatile skill set have given the Bears issues this season (Jones, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Ashton Jeanty all cleared 15 PPR points against them), and I think we see more of the same in this suddenly wide-open attack.

Brown is a top-15 option for me at the position, and I think you’re set to be rewarded the rest of the way for not pivoting when times were tough.

Chris Rodriguez Jr. | WAS (vs SEA)

This Washington backfield is struggling to sustain one RB I feel reasonable about, so there’s no need to handcuff this situation.

Chris Rodriguez has 27 rushes and a single target to his name in 2022. If Jacory Croskey-Merritt were to get injured, I think most of his role would shift toward Rodriguez, but we’d be talking about 80% of a role that is only useful some of the time.

You can find better ways to use your bench.

Christian McCaffrey | SF (at NYG)

Darn, he is human.

McCaffrey struggled last week, totaling just 9.8 PPR points, his worst game by nearly 13 points this season, and a nod to the Houston defensive front (nine carries for 25 yards).

You’re crazy if you’re making any sort of sweeping ranking changes as a result of this dud.

The 49ers trailed for every one of their snaps with a banged-up defense, a backup QB, two missing receivers (not to mention one playing with more broken ribs than I knew we as humans had), and playing in a fourth city in as many weeks.

So, yes, the house of cards eventually came tumbling down.

I’m not sure much of that changes this week, but betting against CMC is dangerous at best. He’s a script-proof back that has produced at (fantasy) MVP levels all season, despite having just one game with 60 rushing yards since the opener.

Nothing has changed in this profile, and nothing will. Unless he’s not healthy, McCaffrey is to be treated as a game-breaker at the highest of levels, even after a down week.

Chuba Hubbard | CAR (at GB)

Chuba Hubbard, in the Panthers’ first series on Sunday, again held the snap edge and again failed to match Rico Dowdle in efficiency.

This backfield is at risk of being labeled insane (doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result), and I don’t know what we can do to stop it.

There are a handful of situations like this across the NFL right now, and it’s a problem. We are looking at a situational committee where the success of certain drives dictates which RB finishes the week with the more valuable end of the split.

It’s simply impossible to project.

I can tell you that Dowdle is checking nearly every advanced box at a higher rate than Hubbard, but I’m not sure that means anything. Over the past two weeks, it hasn’t resulted in any change in usage, and, with this team — for reasons unknown and not motivated for a fresh look — I can’t sit here and tell you that Week 9 is when we get clarity.

Maybe we do, maybe we don’t.

What I can say with confidence is that this team has an implied point total hovering around 17, and that’s not enough for me to start either of their running backs if I can help it.

D’Andre Swift | CHI (at CIN)

D’Andre Swift carried four times for 23 yards on Chicago’s first drive of the game last week in Baltimore, but that proved to be more than half of his rushing yardage for the day as the game script worked away from Chicago, a bit of a surprise against Tyler Huntley.

It didn’t end up mattering too much because he ended up with a touchdown for a fourth straight week and over 4.5 points as a pass catcher for the fourth time in five games. It caught my eye that Kyle Monangai got the first carry of the second half and continues to weasel his way into just enough work to be annoying, but we are picking nits.

Swift is a stable piece in a Ben Johnson offense, and that’s good enough for me. He’s got 12 red zone touches over the past two weeks, so while Williams is seemingly taking a step backward, this offense is doing enough to keep Swift’s expected point totals high.

Swift remains a strong play moving forward, but he was ruled out for this week with a groin injury. Kyle Monangai is the next man up and steps into the flex tier in what projects to be a shootout in Cincinnati.

David Montgomery | DET (vs MIN)

I don’t want to speak for you, but it took me far too long to acknowledge David Montgomery as a safe weekly option as a part of this Detroit attack.

He ran for 25 touchdowns in his first two seasons with the Lions, and I missed out on a large chunk of them in fear that this was Jahmyr Gibbs’ backfield.

I was late to the party, but I haven’t overcorrected by hanging in there for too long.

It’s now the Gibbs show, and while I’m not going to compare this backfield to the one in Atlanta, I’m not sure it’s drastically different. Montgomery has just one game this season with more than 13 carries, is averaging under two targets per game, and entered the Week 8 bye with zero red zone touches in consecutive contests.

He’s not a lineup lock, especially not against a defense like Minnesota that likes to crowd the line of scrimmage.

Since the Week 3 explosion against the injury-ravaged Ravens, Monty is picking up 2.8 yards per carry, and the role doesn’t come preloaded with nearly enough work to make this profile tempting, even with it being attached to one of the better offenses in the game.

Isiah Pacheco | KC (at BUF)

The last three weeks have run out about as good as you could hope for Pacheco. The Chiefs have outscored their opponents 89-24, and he’s beginning to separate in a snap-share perspective.

And yet, we’ve been left wanting more.

Kansas City is so confident in its passing game that even its lead back isn’t getting past a dozen rushing attempts on a consistent basis. To my eye, Pacheco is running hard, but he’s yet to reach 60 rushing yards in a game this season and has caught two passes over his past three games.

I also don’t love that they continue to make this a committee situation early, almost asking a different running back to earn work.

First Drive vs. Commanders

• Patrick Mahomes: 1 carry for 9 yards
• Kareem Hunt: 1 carry for 5 yards (fourth down conversion)
• Isaiah Pacheco: 1 carry for 3 yards (first offensive play)
• Brashard Smith: 1 carry for 1 yard (fumbled, but recovered)

Pacheco is a middling RB2, even in a matchup that I happen to like for him (BUF: second most yards per carry allowed to running backs this season, a stat inflated by the Henry Week 1 game, but this is still the weaker portion of their front).

You’re looking at a lack of ceiling at the moment, and that’s what scares me more than anything. You don’t have much of a chance of “hitting big” in a profile that lacks goal line and receiving work.

Should this knee injury truly be a week-to-week situation, Hunt would move into the middling RB2 role with Smith profiling as a low-end PPR flex. With Buffalo struggling against the run and plenty of evidence that this team trusts Hunt in scoring position, I think he’d be a strong chalk play in DFS contests.

J.K. Dobbins | DEN (at HOU)

J.K. Dobbins has run for over 75 yards in six of his past seven games, and while the scoring has dried up recently (one TD in five games after scoring in three straight to open the season), he’s as good a bet for 15+ touches as there is, and that creates a nice production floor.

R.J. Harvey has looked the part when extended, but Sean Payton isn’t giving him more than a handful of opportunities in competitive situations by week.

If Dobbins picks up an injury designation or starts to struggle in a significant way, we can have the committee discussion. I actually think it’s more likely than not that we’ll have that talk at some point.

But not in Week 9.

The Texans have held both Henry and McCaffrey under 10 PPR points over the past month. This defense is as tough as it gets, which means we have to downgrade our expectations of Dobbins, but it’s not enough to knock him out of my top 20.

Jacory Croskey-Merritt | WAS (vs SEA)

Jacory Croskey-Merritt is the lead back of an offense we believe to be above average.

That’s about all I got in terms of positive notes for Washington’s RB1.

JCM hasn’t scored during this three-game skid, has carried the ball 32 times since his last gain of 10+ yards, and has seven catches on the season.

If you’re blindly starting him, you’re overweighing his role. That’s not to say he can’t hit your lineup, but without any versatility, how much different is he really than the committee backs that we struggle with weekly in Seattle, Carolina, Houston, Tennessee, etc.?

If you want to play him when Daniels is active, under the pretense that this is now a 75th-percentile offense that comes with a handful of red-zone trips, I’ll listen. That fuels some upside, but the floor remains low, and if the script works away from him for any reason, you’re really drawing dead.

Croskey-Merritt is my RB27 this week, a part of a tier that keeps me up at night over the spots where I have to dip into it.

Jahmyr Gibbs | DET (vs MIN)

Jahmyr Gibbs averaged north of five yards per carry as a rookie, and we wondered if he’d be able to sustain that efficiency when the volume ticked up.

Gibbs averaged north of five yards per carry in his second season, and we wondered if he’d be able to sustain that efficiency when the volume ticked up.

Gibbs is averaging 5.1 yards per carry this season.

As it turns out, elite talents remain elite, no matter how much work you give them.

He’s run for six scores in his past six games and has caught 92.9% of his targets in this hyper-efficient offense that caters to his strengths. Gibbs scored six times, averaged over 6.7 yards per carry, and caught each of his nine targets in this matchup a season ago.

He was in more of a committee than he is now.

The Lions are a threat to score any time Gibbs touches the ball, and their lead back is a threat to lead the position in fantasy points in any given week.

This week is no different.

James Cook | BUF (vs KC)

James Cook deserves his flowers.

He ran for 216 yards through three quarters against a Panthers run defense that had actually played well up to that point, the fourth-largest total through three quarters in a game this millennium (those who topped him: 2002 Ricky Williams, 2006 Willie Parker, and 2018 Henry).

It looked easy.

The 64-yard touchdown was a “if you get past the line of scrimmage, you’re running until you hit the goal posts” design from Carolina, and he took full advantage on his way to his fourth game this season with 100 rush yards and a score on the ground.

MORE: Free Fantasy Football Start/Sit Optimizer

Entering the week, I had an eyebrow raised at the lack of work in the passing game. That didn’t change in this spot (zero catches in back-to-back-to-back games), but a 31-point win isn’t going to require much to be done through the air.

I’m far more encouraged by his 5+ yards per carry in five of his past six games than I am concerned about the limitations as a receiver, but it should be noted, given just how versatile that top tier at the position is.

You got a great price on Cook this summer, and while this is a tough matchup, the Chiefs are on a short week, and I think it’s fair to say that this game means more to Buffalo than Kansas City.

Javonte Williams | DAL (vs ARI)

Javonte Williams wasn’t left for dead by the fantasy community, but if we were universally sold on him, you’d have no idea who Jaydon Blue is.

He’s been great.

I’d argue better than great.

Williams has a touchdown or 5+ receptions in every single game this season, and while the per-carry efficiency comes and goes, his role as the unquestioned lead back in a high-powered offense is stable.

I think Dallas can look at their October results and switch up their priorities a bit. I don’t care about volume; we know the game script plays with those numbers, but in terms of efficiency, here are the splits for their four games this month.

• Two wins: 35 carries for 251 yards (7.2 YPC)
• Two losses: 26 carries for 70 yards (2.7 YPC)

There’s obviously some chicken-and-egg to those numbers, but if this team can create a balanced offensive environment, they can compete with anyone.

If not, they get run out of the building by 20 like last weekend.

That’s more of a macro take. In terms of Williams, you can feel great about locking him in this week — a statement I would never have guessed I’d be typing as we prepare for November.

Jaydon Blue | DAL (vs ARI)

Jaydon Blue entered what we thought was an uncertain situation.

Not so much.

He received a promotion when Miles Sanders went down.

Doesn’t matter.

At this point, we have no idea whether the rookie is even a handcuff, since we only have a 23-touch sample size at the pro level.

It was encouraging to see the Cowboys look in his direction a little earlier than usual last week in Denver, but they fell out of contention too quickly to tell whether that was something to watch or a weird quirk of this specific game plan.

I’ll be monitoring his usage moving forward, but from a distance. This isn’t a player that needs to be tying up a roster spot during these tough times.

Jaylen Warren | PIT (vs IND)

The Steelers didn’t impress me much on Sunday night, but I thought Jaylen Warren ran reasonably well, and he continues to be a steady RB2 that you can trust weekly.

He’s certainly being used in more of a “traditional” role than I would have guessed preseason, but with multiple receptions in all six of his games this season, I’m not too worried about the juggernaut Colts scripting Pittsburgh’s bell cow out of this game.

Kenneth Gainwell has struggled outside of the game Warren missed, and Kaleb Johnson is an afterthought. You’ve got yourself a clear lead back in a conservative offense that needs him to be effective in order to thrive (Rodgers hinted at as much during the post-game press conference last week).

The upside isn’t elite because I don’t trust this offense to put up points in bulk, but be happy with your 10-12 points and keep it moving.

Jeremy McNichols | WAS (vs SEA)

Jeremy McNichols caught a season-high five passes against the Chiefs on Monday night, and if you think the game script works that way in any given week, there’s some PPR potential to chase, but considering that his next game with five carries this season will be his first, it makes him a tough sell in anything but desperate situations.

Croskey-Merritt is pretty clearly the between-the-tackles option, and that’s the safer bet weekly. I tend to think that McNichols loses value with Daniels under center, as he is capable of tucking and running instead of dumping off a shallow route.

When he does that and gets into space, it’s a better math equation with another blocker.

McNichols had a nice performance last week and would be the RB2 I roster in Washington, but in most situations, I don’t believe he needs to be rostered.

Jonathan Taylor | IND (at PIT)

Jonathan Taylor was great last season, and, before Halloween, he has more rushing touchdowns this season than he did in 2021.

The 80-yard scamper was a work of art last week. If you want to put some of the blame on the angles taken by Tennessee defenders, you can. But that sort of thing seems to happen a lot when JT is carrying the ball, so I’m not so sure it’s a defensive issue as much as it is a walking mismatch at the running back position.

Every week, we talk about Indianapolis’s offensive regression, and seemingly every week, they beat us over the head with another ultra-efficient performance.

Maybe they are punching above their weight. Maybe this is a team that will fall short in the playoffs.

None of that matters right now. They’ve got a formula that the NFL can’t stop, and they aren’t afraid to lean into it.

Taylor is averaging 5.9 yards per carry, catching 92.6% of his targets, and scoring a touchdown once every 2.3 quarters.

If some of those metrics regress, or they all do a little bit, you’re still talking about a Tier 1 running back capable of carrying your team to glory. You’ve landed the golden player of the 2021 early rounds: how are you going to build around this beast to ensure you have a chance to raise a banner?

Jordan Mason | MIN (at DET)

This is shaping up to be our favorite, the good old “roster both, start neither” backfield.

Ugh.

Jordan Mason has seen his yards per carry gained after contact dip in three straight games, and Jones’ return last week certainly doesn’t help the trajectory.

You can use game script as an excuse for last week (four carries for three yards), but two holes are begging to be poked in that argument.

First, the downside of a player who is at risk of seeing his stat line wander into the abyss based solely on the scoreboard. Regardless of what you think of Jones (I think he’s on the downswing in a reasonably significant way), his role floor is higher than that of Mason due to versatility.

• Jones: Targeted 19% of his routes this season
• Mason: Targeted 10.5% of his routes this season

Second is the schedule. I don’t think there’s a debate to be had about Mason’s limitations, so the fact that Minnesota has yet to play Green Bay or Detroit and has games against Goff, Dak Prescott, and Lamar Jackson is concerning.

Not every week is going to be as lopsided as last (37-10 loss), but the remaining schedule is an uphill battle, and that has Mason ranked outside of the flex tier for me.

Josh Jacobs | GB (vs CAR)

His job isn’t in danger, and he ran for yet another touchdown, but Emanuel Wilson (11 carries for 61 yards) was gaining some of the tough yards for the Packers on Sunday night, not Josh Jacobs (13 carries for 33 yards).

I don’t think this sticks, but I’m also the person who thought this team would settle on Jayden Reed as their top target earner. I’m the person who assumed they drafted Matthew Golden with a plan.

Green Bay is pretty clearly a threat to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl, and maybe their distribution of responsibilities is a reason why.

Maybe not.

Jacobs is a hard-nosed running back who fits this system. He’s caught at least three passes in five of his past six games and already has nine rushing scores. Last week was a little goofy, and maybe the undrafted third-year back gets more work this week in a potential blowout spot, but when the rubber meets the road, I think you have one of the 10 best backs in the game that carries a nice combination of versatility and scoring equity.

It’s important to remember that the Packers had an early bye (Week 5) and might want to save some tread on their RB1’s tires. That’s obviously not ideal in the middle third of the season, but I expect the December version of this offense to look more like the September version (20+ touches for their RB1), and that could be what puts you over the top in your fantasy playoffs.

Kaleb Johnson | PIT (vs IND)

We got a report a month ago that the Steelers believed Kaleb Johnson would contribute before the season ended, but we’ve seen nothing to suggest that, and I’m done holding.

I think you’re better off trying to predict any trade that could happen at the upcoming deadline and investing down various depth charts in the hopes of striking gold. At this point, Johnson is a reminder that not all rookies are even remotely ready when they are drafted — and that’s all.

In two months, he’s gone from a popular value pick to a teaching utensil.

Kareem Hunt | KC (at BUF)

This backfield is moving away from Kareem Hunt when it comes to snap share, but as long as he is getting the valuable looks, he’s on our radar thanks to the potency of this offense as a whole.

Hunt played 54.5% of Kansas City’s red zone snaps and just 26.8% otherwise.

He’s a high-value fantasy option, and with five touchdowns on 70 touches this season, he’s cashing in.

The story here is going to be the same every week until something changes: touchdown chasing.

If he doesn’t score, you’re likely looking at under five fantasy points, but he comes preloaded with two-TD upside like we saw on Monday night with a pair of short scores.

Personally, I’m not going this route if I can help it, but as a backup option, he can make the most of limited work.

That math obviously changes with Pacheco likely sidelined for this week. If that’s the case, we get a 14-16 touch role with scoring equity, and that’s enough to justify starting him in all spots. Smith would also see his role ramp up, though I’d view Hunt as the clear two-down back with most of the scoring equity.

Essentially, Hunt would be what we’ve wanted Pacheco to be.

Kenneth Gainwell | PIT (vs IND)

Kenneth Gainwell had the big game in Dublin with Jaylen Warren sidelined, but outside of that, he’s meant more to the Steelers than to fantasy managers.

On Sunday night against the Packers, his only notable snap was a lost fumble (his first of the season), putting into question the minimum 6-8 touch role he currently holds for a team headed in the wrong direction.

We have proof that he is the handcuff, and we know he is a fluid route runner — two factors that keep him rosterable in all formats, given the structure of this offense.

That said, there’s no reason for him to be even close to your flex spot. I’m not crazy about betting on the featured parts of this Arthur Smith offense, no matter the accent pieces.

Kenneth Walker III | SEA (at WAS)

This is an old man yelling at clouds situation, and guess what?

The clouds? They never listen.

Kenneth Walker has his weekly moments, but NFL coaches love consistency, and if anything, Walker has been a consistent detriment.

He’s pacing to finish as a 20th percentile running back in terms of rush gain rate, something he’s done every season of his career up to this point. There’s a reason that the Barry Sanderses of the world are considered special: that home run-seeking style is hard to pull off.

Walker has been held under four yards per carry in three straight, held out of the end zone in four straight, and has just five catches in six games since catching three balls in Week 1.

We can beg for more work, but he hasn’t really earned it. Giving him more work would encourage a style that has been a net negative for going on five seasons. There is raw talent here, no doubt, and maybe we get a taste of that this weekend.

Or maybe we don’t.

The fact that we can’t count on him carries over to the coaching staff, and that’s why I have a hard time penciling him in for over 15 touches in any single game. The touch count is close enough to that of Zach Charbonnet, so I’ll continue to rank him a touch higher because I have to account for the potential of a splash play, but I don’t feel great about playing him as an RB2 this week.

Or, to be honest, any week.

Kimani Vidal | LAC (at TEN)

Hassan Haskins (hamstring) sat out on Thursday night, and Joe Alt (ankle) was back in the mix, creating a perfect storm around the value of Kimani Vidal.

He paid it off in a big way with 127 yards and a touchdown against the Vikings.

When Omarion Hampton went down, we assumed the role would be a committee one. But with 18+ carries and 117+ rushing yards in two of three games (the exception being a game against the Colts, when the Chargers were playing catch-up for most of the afternoon), this is a bellcow situation.

For now.

This is the final week of Hampton’s mandated absence, and while he’s expected to be sidelined a bit longer (Los Angeles goes on bye in Week 12 if you’re curious), Vidal’s role isn’t going to get you through the playoffs.

We can worry about that situation when we get there. I’m all for looking long-term, but Vidal was found value when you acquired him off waivers, and you’re simply in the business of squeezing as much juice out of him as you can.

He’s a lineup lock this weekend, and I don’t think your confidence in him should hinge on the availability of Haskins. In his two games with double-digit carries, a safe projection for Sunday with the Bolts favored by more than a touchdown, Vidal has produced big post-contact numbers. This skill set projects well against a Titans defense that has been a bottom-10 unit in that regard all season long.

Thinking that Vidal will flirt with 20 PPR points is probably a touch optimistic, but 13-16 is a solid bet, and we will take that every week.

Kyle Monangai | CHI (at CIN)

Welcome to Kyle Monangai’s Cheat Sheet life as the seventh-round rookie who has touched the ball 22 times over the past two weeks and appears to be a piece that Ben Johnson is interested in exploring as he tries to get this ship pointed in the right direction.

Do I think he holds stand-alone (as the RB2) or that he has a real shot to unseat D’Andre Swift as the lead back in town?

I do not.

Is he playable this weekend with Swift (groin) ruled out on Friday?

I think so.

He’s handled five red zone touches in the three weeks coming out of the bye and has seen 16 of his 42 carries (38.1%) pick up at least five yards this season.

Swift is running well, but it’s clear that Caleb Williams is going to need all the help he can get, and if a 5’8″, 207-pound back that scored 14 times last season at Rutgers offers a specific skill that is NFL-ready, I’m confident that Johnson will pull it out of him.

You flex him this week as a way to get exposure to this matchup and see where the Swift situaiton goes. I find it unlikely that this shifts toward a committee, but we can only take these things one week at a time and for Week 9, Monangai is very viable.

Kyren Williams | LAR (vs NO)

A narrow range of production outcomes isn’t a bad thing in most situations, and that’s what we’re seeing from Kyren Williams on the ground.

In five of seven games, the lead Ram has given us 50-66 rushing yards, and that’s … fine? He doesn’t have big play ability via the handoff (one regular season run of 25+ yards since the beginning of last year), and he’s down a full red zone touch per game from last season, leaving him very much without the upside we thought we were signing up for in the third round.

He’s caught multiple passes in six straight games and is picking up at least five yards on 42.1% of his carries, a nice increase from his 36.4% rate a season ago. All hope is not lost, especially not when you consider that Chase Brown and Omarion Hampton held a similar ADP in August, but I’ve lost faith in him as a week winner.

This is obviously a good spot where the game script should lean in his favor. But with the 49ers, Seahawks, and Bucs up next, I’m not sure we’ll see a ton of that over the next few weeks. Enjoy this game … and consider moving on to better position yourself for the stretch run should he offer up a top 10 week.

Nick Chubb | HOU (vs DEN)

Nick Chubb handled a season-high 17 carries on Sunday against the 49ers and celebrated by posting his fourth effort in five games without a gain of 12 yards.

I don’t like the word “washed,” but it’s clear that not only are Chubb’s best days behind him, but that Wood Marks offers a level of burst that the 29-year-old is a few knee surgeries removed from.

A flip in touch distribution feels close to inevitable, but you can’t cut ties with Chubb until we see it. If Houston can get some good luck on the health front at receiver and Marks plays a role in an upset win over Denver, we could be having the “does Chubb need to be rostered” conversation in this space next week.

Ray Davis | BUF (vs KC)

Ray Davis benefited from the blowout nature of Buffalo’s 40-9 win over Carolina and matched a season high with nine carries.

They went for 16 yards.

James Cook produces at the levels he does because he is special, so even if he were to get hurt, it wouldn’t be as simple as transferring his work onto Davis. He’s still the handcuff to own, but he’d be more of a low-end RB2 if pressed into a significant role.

You can hold him if you have room, but if every position needs weekly utility because of your spot in the standings, this is the type of player you can move on from.

Rhamondre Stevenson | NE (vs ATL)

The Falcons struggled to slow the mighty Dolphins last week, so I guess you could talk yourself into Rhamondre Stevenson taking advantage of his role. Still, we have a reasonable sample size showing that he cannot do that.

Over his past four games, not a single one of Stevenson’s 57 touches has gained more than 17 yards, and he’s failed to catch more than two balls in five straight games.

In short, he’s done nothing to earn his coaching staff’s trust, yet he can’t seem to lose his bellcow role (over 70% snap share in three straight).

I don’t like the projection, but until we see something different, the 16 touches per game he’s been averaging over the past three games seems here to stay. Due to the surrounding matchups, even I can’t knock Stevenson out of the RB2 conversation: there just aren’t enough lead backs to justify benching New England’s bellcow that appears to have a bulletproof role that doesn’t hinge on his performance.

That said, we are looking at a toe injury that has been an issue at practice this week. I’d keep an eye on this situation with reports swirling about New England’s interest in adding RB depth at the deadline. This game is in the first wave on Sunday, so you have pivot options if needed.

Rico Dowdle | CAR (at GB)

This is worse than a full-blown committee; it’s chaos.

Last Two Weeks (Since Hubbard Returned)

• Rico Dowdle: 25 carries for 133 yards
• Chuba Hubbard: 26 carries for 65 yards

If we had known this was going to be a 50/50 split, we could have worked around it. We wouldn’t like it, but we’d know what to expect.

But this isn’t that. This is a drive-by-drive setup that carries the potential for unpredictable usage patterns if one RB happens to be on the field for a high percentage of successful drives.

Of course, how a running back runs plays into that, but it’s not the only factor (the carries were divided 5-5 through the first four drives last week). Carolina is a double-digit underdog in this spot, and that puts all rushing production in trouble.

I prefer Dowdle if I’m splitting hairs, but neither is a top 20 option for me this week because I have no confidence in our ability to forecast where the opportunities are going. I’m OK playing the most explosive Panther over Alvin Kamara or David Montgomery if you’re fed up with how the veterans are performing. However, you should enter this situation with eyes wide open: the range of outcomes is wide.

RJ Harvey | DEN (at HOU)

It’s easy to fall in love with the production line last week against the Cowboys (51 yards and three scores on eight touches), but wouldn’t your high school GPA look better if you were asked to take third-grade level tests?

The rookie scored on a 40-yard dash early, a pitch that saw him hit the hole at full speed and never slow down. Harvey has looked great twice this year, in home games against Cincinnati and Dallas.

Until Sean Payton gives us a glimpse of a power shift from Dobbins to Harvey, I don’t think you can reasonably make a move. The lead back more than doubled the snap count of his backup in the first half while the game was reasonably close, something that is consistent with how this offense has functioned up to this point.

If you have Harvey, keep him rostered. If not, I wouldn’t go crazy to make it happen. Harvey is a talented player in a good offense, but it’s pretty clear that he’s not in a position to work into a greater role and thus would need an injury to project as a viable flex.

Tony Pollard | TEN (vs LAC)

Tony Pollard is fine, and fine isn’t going to cut it when you have a younger back breathing down your neck.

Pollard wasn’t great when Tyjae Spears was on the shelf to open this season, but he didn’t need to be; he was the only man for the job. He averaged 16.4 carries per game through the first five weeks, a role that was given, not earned (one 15+ yard rush on 82 attempts).

With Spears back, Pollard hasn’t reached a dozen carries in three straight and is trending in the wrong direction for a player with an out in his contract after this season. This isn’t even a Spears thing as much as it is a roster construction thing.

Cam Ward is viewed as the future of this franchise, and his meshing with a 24-year-old back is worth more than his getting comfortable with a 28-year-old.

Pollard should remain rostered in all formats due to his proximity to a 15-17 touch role, but he’s my RB2 in Tennessee moving forward, and that puts him outside of my top 30 when evaluating his value league-wide.

Travis Etienne Jr. | JAX (at LV)

Etienne was one of five Jaguars to log a carry in the first half of their Week 7 blowout loss against the Rams, and that distribution of work, along with the game script, resulted in a third straight game with 12 or fewer carries for their lead back.

That’s a tough sell.

He’s seen 12 targets across those three games, and that’s a start, but they’ve yielded just 12.8 PPR points. It’s clear that this team is taking on water, and that could mean an exploration into Bhayshul Tuten (4-6 touches in five straight games) sooner than later.

Even if he retains the lead role, if we are topping out at 15 touches in a below-average offensive environment, it’s difficult to get excited.

As long as he holds the lead role, he’s going to be on the flex radar, if for no other reason than we saw him have success in September. That said, for me to feel good about him retaining this role, he needs to take advantage of this plus-matchup off the bye.

TreVeyon Henderson | NE (vs ATL)

TreVeyon Henderson more than doubled the rushing output of Rhamondre Stevenson last week on fewer touches. Still, he played under 22% of the offensive snaps for a second straight week, and with New England continuing to rattle off victories, this coaching staff is starting to profile as the superstitious type.

I understand it for fans. If my team wins because I wore a shirt, by all means, lean into it. I think we are all rational enough people to understand that my clothing doesn’t impact play.

But for this coaching staff to lean into a lesser running back to keep the vibes steady seems … odd. This is like eating ice cream for dinner every night, getting a clean report from the dentist, and assuming that the ice cream habit helped fuel that positive check-up.

Your dental health and the success of this Patriots team are happening despite the bad habit; quitting it would only strengthen the future outlook.

But no, we can’t rock the boat.

On the first drive last week, Stevenson had zero yards on three carries while Henderson had multiple gains of 12+ yards. If we had any hope of a hot-hand situation, we would have seen a proof of concept last week, but that’s clearly not in the cards.

Henderson did lose a fumble in garbage time last week, but if this team remains consistent, their RBs don’t get punished for a lack of ball security.

This is a frustrating situation for fantasy managers because we think we’re reading it correctly, but aren’t getting the desired results.

I’d love to project change, but I can’t. Not at this point. Henderson is off my flex radar … provided that Stevenson (toe) plays. Should that not be the case, Henderson shifts right into the lead role and holds RB2 value for this week.

In this situation, the most important note would be his potential to earn work moving forward. We know Stevenson is seemingly unable to lose his role in on-field production, but if he’s watching the rookie show out, we have a chance to get optimal usage in the final two months.

Trey Benson | ARI (at DAL)

We knew there was a knee thing bugging Trey Benson coming out of Week 4, but we got news that arthroscopic surgery was required and that a trip to IR was the team’s decision.

Initial reporting has Benson potentially returning when first eligible in Week 10 against the Seahawks, good news for those who hoped that, following the James Conner injury, they had a bellcow at a bargain.

Game script factored in, but he wasn’t used in the same dominating fashion that Conner was, more serving as the plus-side of a low-end committee than a true feature back.

That’s about what I’m expecting when he comes back, though this window does give Michael Carter a good chance to prove capable of handling more two-down work, including a juicy matchup in Week 9 with the Cowboys.

Before landing on IR, Benson had back-to-back 13-touch efforts, both coming in losses. The volume isn’t going to overwhelm, though I do think he’s the favorite to end this season with the lead role in an above-average offense that will benefit from a game against the Bengals in Week 17.

I’m holding and considering a low-ball trade offer, should the manager with Benson be fighting to keep their season on track.

Tyjae Spears | TEN (vs LAC)

This is about as committee-like as a committee can get, but at least we have some signal to lead us.

Weeks 6-8

• Tyjae Spears: 50.8% snap share, 58 routes, 29 touches
• Tony Pollard: 49.2% snap share, 50 routes, 36 touches

Last week, albeit in a blowout defeat, the Titans made a reasonably quick move to Spears. After Pollard handled six of eight first-quarter backfield snaps (5-0 edge in touches), it was Spears operating as the RB1 the rest of the way (12-7 touch edge, including 4-1 inside the 20).

His vision and patience were showcased on a 41-yard gain in the second quarter, a play we would have preferred he finish with a TD, but it was still the type of highlight that stands to earn him playing time as Tennessee shifts its focus from 2025 to 2026 and beyond.

Pollard is pacing for a career-low yards-per-carry, so while Spears already appears to be the preferred option as a pass catcher, don’t be surprised if this turns into Spears’ backfield with Pollard moments, rather than the other way around.

I had Spears ranked as a reasonable flex and Pollard on the backend of that tier in Week 8, and I saw nothing to back me off of that general feel entering Week 9.

Tyler Allgeier | ATL (at NE)

Tyler Allgeier cashed in a garbage-time carry, so if you played him last week in hopes of such a thing, you got there, even if the garbage time was the polar opposite of your expectation.

He’s a good handcuff in a sporadic offense, a combination that gives him zero weekly utility and means he’d carry some risk even if he were to land the lead role.

He’s ranked easily outside of my top 35 this week: if you’re in a super deep league, I’d rather roll the dice on the boom/bust receivers that are widely available, even in formats like that.

Tyrone Tracy Jr. | NYG (vs SF)

Tyrone Tracy is projected to be the beneficiary of the unfortunate Skattebo injury. While he should be rostered across the board, I don’t think we are locking him in anywhere if we can avoid it.

Over his past 12 games, Tracy has produced 13% below expectations and has been nearly four times as likely to get stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage as he is to rip off a 10+ yard carry.

We saw some glimpses of versatility last season, and he’ll be the leader in this backfield. But he’s a different player than Skattebo, and that makes it unreasonable to extrapolate “Giant RB1” numbers his way.

I’m not scared of this matchup and have Tracy ranked as a run-of-the-mill option given his projected volume. He’s basically Etienne for me: a featured piece of an offense with a wide range of weekly outcomes that will have as many standout performances as duds.

Woody Marks | HOU (vs DEN)

Woody Marks is stuck in this weird timeshare situation with Chubb, where Houston seems to be stuck between veteran deference and curiosity.

Chubb was on the field Sunday for one more snap than Marks, but the rookie nearly doubled him in routes and earned three red zone touches to the “lead back’s” one.

For the season, Marks is averaging 15.8% more PPR points per game despite having 0.5 fewer expected points by way of his touches, a trend alone that should have this backfield swinging in his favor.

I just don’t see that happening in the short term, which makes both flex players riskier than they’re worth. Chubb has an 85% gain rate, but that’s more of a falling-forward stat for him at this point in his career (6.3% 10+ carry percentage). Marks, on the other hand, checks in with a 75.4% gain rate with a 10.5% 10+ carry percentage.

Sound familiar?

Chubb is Hubbard to Marks’ Dowdle, the Zach Charbonnet to his Walker.

This is a messy situation that is projected to stay that way until either a drastic shift in philosophy or an injury occurs. I’m not expecting either of those things entering Week 9, and that’s how both are comfortably outside of my top 25 (if you roster both, I have Marks half a dozen spots higher for the same reason I have Dowdle as the guy in Carolina and Walker in Seattle: splash plays).

Zach Charbonnet | SEA (at WAS)

Isn’t Zach Charbonnet essentially Allgeier?

Not from a role standpoint — obviously, one has Robinson on his team and the other doesn’t — but both are plodding backs who aren’t the least bit exciting and can cash in when given the chance.

Through six games played this season, Charbs had 205 rushing yards and six catches, while Allgeier had 203 rushing yards and three catches.

Seattle’s starter is getting the red zone work over Kenneth Walker (22-16 edge in red zone touches despite one fewer game played), but he doesn’t have a touch picking up more than 15 yards or a three-target effort this season.

You can play Charbonnet and know what you’re getting. There’s comfort in that, but it requires you to build a good roster around him, because you’re sacrificing ceiling.

Wide Receivers

Alec Pierce | IND (at PIT)

At this point, don’t we have to take anyone attached to this Colts offense seriously?

Alec Pierce hasn’t scored this season and hasn’t proven himself to be a consistent target earner during his 3.5 years as a pro, but 18.1 yards per catch (21.4 this season) doesn’t happen by accident.

If your weekly roster runs out a certain way, playing Pierce as your flex makes all the sense in the world. He has a 40+ yard catch in half of his games this season and has shown the ability to be oddly efficient at times.

If you have a strong team that holds advantages over your opponent all over the place, there’s no point in taking on the risk that comes with a profile like this.

The craziest stat I stumbled across when deep diving this profile: 31 of his 32 targets this season have either come less than 20 yards downfield (21) or more than 35 yards (10).

It’s nice to see some balance, but that one bomb attempt per game is essentially what you’re betting on, and there are worse weeks to place that wager (PIT: 27th in YPA and yards per completion on long throws this season).

Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET (vs MIN)

After consecutive seasons with 115+ receptions under Ben Johnson, there was some regression talk in August around Amon-Ra St. Brown’s ability to pile up stats in bulk this year in the same way.

Through seven games, compared to last season, his yards per route, deep target rate, on-field target share, and red zone target% are all up.

Jameson Williams has been pigeonholed into a vertical role, leaving him with the entire middle of the field to work his dark magic with creative routes, and the NFL has been unable to slow down his connection with Goff.

He’s been nothing short of great, and that’s despite a four-game run without a single end zone target. Forget regression; it’s possible that his best is yet to come.

And it might well start this week: 14 catches on 15 targets for 189 yards and a touchdown across two meetings with Minnesota a year ago.

Brandon Aiyuk | SF (at NYG)

Reports surfaced late last week that the 49ers were considering opening Brandon Aiyuk’s (knee) window to return this week, and that’s at least a step in the right direction, something that we’ve lacked mainly during this process.

For his career, Aiyuk has produced 21.2% above expectations when fielding passes from Brock Purdy, and that’s obviously encouraging if we get the combination of them both healthy at any point.

That’s a big if.

Adding Aiyuk now makes plenty of sense, though I’d keep expectations low for now. San Francisco has been cautious with him up to this point, which worries me that we may have to wait until December to see him unleashed in a meaningful way.

That said, after a Week 14 bye, the 49ers get the Titans, Colts, and Bears to round out the fantasy season, a stretch that projects well should he assume the WR1 role.

Brian Thomas Jr. | JAX (at LV)

Right when it seemed that Brian Thomas Jr. was moving in the right direction with 80+ receiving yards in consecutive games, he didn’t show much in the loss to the Rams in London before the bye (31 yards on seven targets).

To make matters worse, on Jacksonville’s final drive of a game that was never competitive, Thomas grabbed at his right shoulder at the first sign of contact. It wasn’t anything more than a normal jam around the line of scrimmage, but he was in obvious pain.

His status needs to be watched, but even if he’s fine, how much confidence can you realistically have in rolling him out there?

Trevor Lawrence hasn’t been given a ton of time to throw lately, and even when he is, the decision-making is regressing instead of developing.

I will say that five different Jaguars had a 20+ yard catch in London, and that’s a start. That said, until those passes are going consistently to Thomas, I’m not sure there’s top-15 upside in this profile.

Keep an eye on the reporting: when healthy, he’s a flex option I’ll prefer more against better teams when the script tilts toward passing aggression.

Calvin Ridley | TEN (vs LAC)

The hamstring injury that Calvin Ridley suffered in Week 6 held him out for a second consecutive game, and a soft tissue issue for a 30-year-old receiver on a struggling offense is a tough sell.

The lone redeeming quality in this profile is that he’s really the only option, and Tennessee is motivated to give Cam Akers as many live reps as they can. That’s more narrative than a statistical thread that can reliably be pulled every week, but we have to sell hope when it comes to filling out our benches.

Ridley isn’t a weekly starter when healthy, and I’d bet against him changing that moving forward. There is, however, a path for him to work into flex consideration as this season progresses, and that’s more than the players on your waiver wire can claim.

CeeDee Lamb | DAL (vs ARI)

Since returning from nearly a month off (ankle), CeeDee Lamb’s target rate is essentially identical to the two games pre-injury this season. Still, the type of target has shifted significantly following the film George Pickens put forth during that missed time.

• Weeks 1-2: 41.7% deep target rate
• Weeks 7-8: 16.7% deep target rate

I think this is optimal. Not that Lamb can’t win down the field, but if the goal is to build the strongest offensive environment, allowing Pickens to play to his primary strength with Lamb filling in around him is a wise move.

In theory, this should elevate Lamb’s target rate over time as efficiency improves. Last week had a few chances to be an even bigger performance (two end zone DPIs forced on the same drive after a 29-yard catch earlier in the game put Dallas on the doorstep).

Due to how the Cowboys play, Lamb, even with the presence of Pickens, is on the short list of receivers that could lead the position in PPR points from this point forward.

Chris Olave | NO (at LAR)

Chris Olave has seen double-digit targets in six of his team’s first eight games, a number that has only been topped by Cooper Kupp (2021) since 2019.

The volume is great to see, and I think it sticks regardless of who takes the most snaps in any given week under center for the Saints, but we don’t get points per target.

Olave has reached his expected point total just once this season, and asking him to do so against a Rams defense coming off a bye isn’t something I’m comfortable with. Los Angeles is a top-10 defense against the deep pass in passer rating, touchdown rate, and interception percentage, a strength that figures to be on display this week with Olave’s aDOT up 54.5% over the past three weeks.

I couldn’t imagine benching New Orleans’ WR1 for your favorite Packer or Bill receiver. The locked-in volume keeps Olave inside of my top-25 at the position this week … barely.

Christian Kirk | HOU (vs DEN)

Kirk’s availability all season has been hindered by these hamstring injuries (three games played, 109 yards on 16 targets), and while I’m holding, my stance in that regard is fading.

The Texans’ pass game isn’t one I’m begging to be exposed to these days, but with Collins hopefully back as the lead target and a ton of youth to develop behind him, what motivation does Houston have to rush Kirk back and load him up with targets?

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I do think there is a PPR-type of role for him to fill in an offense that needs to cover up for their offensive line via the short passing game. Still, given the lingering nature of this injury, I’m going to need to see a minimum of one healthy game from Kirk before even entertaining the idea of flexing him.

And if I’m being completely honest, probably multiple games.

The Texans host the Cardinals and Raiders in Weeks 15-16: if you’re holding onto Kirk, I think it’s with an eye on those matchups and the hope that he is functioning at full speed come mid-December.

Christian Watson | GB (vs CAR)

It’s Christian Watson, and that means we have scar tissue to work through. The former second-round pick has appeared in just 39 games across his 3+ seasons, and that doesn’t include the early exits and hobbled routes.

We need to proceed with caution, but how can you not be impressed with his season debut against the Steelers?

Not only did Watson adjust to a deep ball and play the majority of snaps (55%), but he sealed the edge on a Josh Jacobs touchdown run and was fully engaged throughout the victory.

Even more illuminating to me was the fact that Matt LaFleur dialed back the aDOT of Matthew Golladay with Watson back. The rookie hasn’t done much, and this coaching staff didn’t hesitate to let Watson run downfield, even if that’s the primary skill of their first-round pick.

Watson has never been a high-volume target earner, and I don’t expect that to change. That said, this is a potent offense, and he projects to hold a valuable role as the field stretcher.

He’s a fringe top-40 receiver for me this week, in part because I’m not sure that Jordan Love throws 35 passes, but how much different is he than Xavier Worthy or Jameson Williams moving forward?

Cooper Kupp | SEA (at WAS)

It seems almost impossible that the Seahawks are having success at the level they are while only having one player we feel good about starting each week, but that’s exactly where we stand after two months, and there are no signs of change.

Cooper Kupp hasn’t really ceded any work to Troy Horton, yet he has one end-zone target this season and has reached 50 air yards just once in his past five games.

He does have a catch picking up at least 24 yards in three straight, so if you want to sell me on him as a reasonable dart throw against a defense that is bottom-10 against deep passes in terms of interception rate, yards per completion, and passer rating, I guess I’d reluctantly listen. Still, I truly think you’re chasing the value you associate with this name and not current expectations.

Kupp is a risky play at best and unrosterable if you think Sam Darnold is in for some regression during the second half of the season.

Courtland Sutton | DEN (at HOU)

Courtland Sutton finished last week’s shellacking of the Cowboys with 10.7 PPR points, a down game by his standards, but it could/should have been better.

He was called for OPI to wipe a touchdown off the board, and while I agree with the call, we sometimes see those calls missed.

As if that wasn’t bad enough, the next play, from the 24-yard line, was a frozen rope from Bo Nix that his WR1 mishandled. That’s a 9.4-point play and flips the narrative from semi-disappointment to a fifth top-20 finish in six weeks.

I’m perfectly fine counting on Sutton as my WR2. We know that there is some risk assumed in playing him (Nix can be up and down, not to mention this matchup), but with an end zone target in three straight and a deep reception in six straight, the reward outweighs the downside that you assume in investing in this offense.

Darius Slayton | NYG (vs SF)

Darius Slayton has one touchdown catch over the past calendar year and has 14 catches this season. He hasn’t even been close to hitting your lineup at any point this season, and the G-Men didn’t exactly inspire confidence with an 18-point loss over the weekend.

And yet, I think he’s an add.

No, I don’t think consistency is going to be a part of this profile, but I’m cautiously optimistic about the trajectory of things, and that’s all you can ask for when it comes to these fringe players.

For the season, Slayton has been targeted on 22.1% of his routes with Jaxson Dart under center, up from 6.5% when the rookie isn’t on the field.

That’s a step in the right direction, and the matchups over the next two weeks allow him to cash in on some of the promise (at Chicago next week). If he can come through, you have a roster filler for the remainder of the season, giving you access to late-season games against the Commanders and Raiders.

If not, you move on with little loss.

This is the type of low-risk, decent-reward chance that I love to take at this point in the season. Cast a wide enough net on players like this, and you allow yourself to build out depth when it matters most.

In a perfect world, none of this matters, and your roster stays 100% healthy on your way to a title. In a more realistic world, your depth is going to factor in at some point, and this is a dart I’m throwing.

Darnell Mooney | ATL (at NE)

Last week was a tough evaluation for the Falcons. Cousins replaced an injured Penix while London sat.

That run out would be optimal more often than not for Mooney, but I’m not sold he’s 100% healthy just yet, and he finished with 11 yards on four targets in the blowout loss at the hands of the Dolphins.

I still like him as the WR2 in this offense, though I’m not sure that role means anything close to consistent production, regardless of who the quarterback is.

Mooney did force a DPI flag that picked up 39 yards, so that’s something. But if there’s the risk of Pitts earning efficient volume (caught all nine targets on Sunday) and KhaDarel Hodge at least being involved (the eight targets from last week aren’t likely to repeat, but if three-WR sets become the norm), I have a hard time seeing Mooney live up to the production he put on film last season.

He’s a viable roster option, but not someone you should feel too tied to. I’d hesitate to cut him with the injury situations being what they are for Atlanta right now, but I’m not blind to the idea that he could become a roster casualty.

Davante Adams | LAR (vs NO)

I’m not sure that Davante Adams could handle a full season of being the featured pass catcher, but he looked fine in that role in London before the bye against the Jags with Puka Nacua out.

Not only did he score three short touchdowns, but he also earned a 30% target share in the first 30 minutes when that game was reasonably competitive and sucked in the defensive attention that allowed Matthew Stafford to be efficient, even when not throwing his way.

In Weeks 2-5, with Nacua at the peak of his powers, Adams was a top-10 performer at the position in both total and per-game PPR points. It’s clear that he has plenty of juice left in the tank, and his savvy in those short-yardage spots is second to none.

The only reason I don’t have 2025 Adams ranked as 2024 Tee Higgins is the Los Angeles defense. This team doesn’t need to score the way the 2024 Bengals did, but even without that, you’re starting Adams with confidence as a WR2 that carries as much scoring equity as anyone outside of the top tier at the position.

Deebo Samuel Sr. | WAS (vs SEA)

Deebo Samuel had two catches for 11 yards two minutes into Monday night’s loss to the Chiefs.

It was a start we wanted to see with Terry McLaurin back, but it didn’t last. Over the next 58 minutes, he caught as many of his four targets as the Chiefs did (one) and didn’t pick up another receiving yard.

The Chiefs are a tough matchup, and their holding the ball for over 34 minutes didn’t help either.

I think you still have a viable flex play here. Samuel and McLaurin play well off of one another, and the return of Daniels gives this offense a level of upside that Mariota simply doesn’t.

Chalk up Week 8’s dud to the game. My thoughts about him haven’t changed since this time last week.

DeMario Douglas | NE (vs ATL)

Maye has been better than anyone thought he’d be this season. That’s not to suggest that he’ll decline, but if he’s functioning at the peak of his current powers and DeMario Douglas has yet to catch more than three passes in a game, shouldn’t that tell us something?

His one grab against the Browns last week was a fun one (44-yard gain), but this is a 5’8″ player whose NFL skill is to work open in quick windows.

That’s not something Maye is looking for, and with the wins flowing in, I can’t imagine we’ll see this zebra change his stripes. Douglas’s profile doesn’t come with the type of floor or ceiling that makes much sense rostering, so I’d be inclined to cut ties and either look for a receiver who sees a handful of looks per game or secure a handcuff running back who is an injury away from being viable.

DJ Moore | CHI (at CIN)

Caleb Williams is struggling right now, but at least he’s condensed his target options.

It would appear that Colston Loveland has some developing to do, and Luther Burden, when healthy, is still more of a gadget option than anything. This offense is built around D’Andre Swift on the ground and the Rome Odunze/Moore tandem through the air.

Moore wasn’t good for much of Sunday’s loss to the Ravens, but a 42-yard one-handed grab late helped salvage the day (4-73-0) and post his first game with 50+ receiving yards since Week 1.

I like that he has four games with multiple rush attempts this season. They’ve yet to yield much of anything, but that suggests that Ben Johnson is aware of his value and is doing what he can to keep him engaged.

I suspect the Bears will be pushed to move the ball through the air, and that has me thinking we’ll see the version of this Bengals defense we saw earlier in the year, when they allowed a receiver to clear 16 PPR points in five of six games.

Odunze is clearly the WR1 in this offense, but I believe this can be a get-right sort of deal, and that has Moore ranked as a solid PPR flex option.

DK Metcalf | PIT (vs IND)

We have to be beyond a month at this point for me to encourage you to sell DK Metcalf to the highest bidder and running.

He scored for the fifth time in six games on Sunday night, but nothing is coming easy in this passing game, and that’s with Aaron Rodgers looking good.

What if the 41-year-old regresses a bit?

Metcalf made a mental mistake late in Week 8’s loss — one that Rodgers specifically mentioned in the post-game press conference — and little things like that lead me to believe we’ve already squeezed as much juice as possible out of this asset for the season.

In the past, Metcalf’s frame has helped him box out defenders and turn a single target into a strong stat line. That’s not the design of this offense (18.6% deep-ball rate, pacing for his first season under 25.5% and well below his career norm of 32.4%), which means he has to rack up volume to make a difference.

Do you know the last time he had more than five catches in a game?

Nov. 17, 2024

His last double-digit target game was five weeks before that. This isn’t a player who wins with regularity; he needs to make his receptions count in a major way.

We’ve seen him take a slant 80 yards to the house this season, so it’s not as if he can’t produce, but the risk analysis is leaning away from him, especially with an older QB now expected to play at a high level for 13 straight weeks to end this season (the curse of a Week 5 bye).

I’d rather Jaylen Waddle moving forward. I’d rather Marvin Harrison Jr. Heck, I think you could make a compelling case that, given how he was used before the bye, Hunter could outproduce Metcalf from Week 9 on.

Dontayvion Wicks | GB (vs CAR)

A calf injury kept Dontayvion Wicks out of practice last week and kept him inactive for the convincing win over the Steelers on Sunday night.

I’m fine to move on.

Christian Watson looked as healthy as he’s been in a while during his season debut, and Romeo Doubs has looked the part of the best receiver in this offense for most of the season up to this point.

Tucker Kraft is busy running over would-be tacklers, and all of this is happening without Jayden Reed taking the field. Wicks is fighting for scraps in an offense that prioritizes establishing the running game over everything else, making him a high-risk, low-reward option when fully healthy.

And he’s not close to full strength right now.

I’d roster three Green Bay receivers ahead of Wicks and about 60 league-wide, ranging down to other low-used options like Keon Coleman or Tre Tucker, two receivers that I at least trust to be on the field and believe to have a clearer path to consistent opportunities.

Drake London | ATL (at NE)

London popped up on the final injury report with a hip injury after taking limited reps last Friday and was ultimately inactive against the Dolphins.

This was only the second DNP of his 3.5 years as a pro, and given its late nature, I’m assuming he’s on the right side of questionable this week.

New England’s run defense has been its calling card this season, but that doesn’t mean its pass defense hasn’t been good. Of course, their competition has fed into that, but they’ve yet to allow a standout WR performance, and with London potentially at less than full strength, it’s difficult to put him into the WR1 discussion.

Christian Gonzalez figures to draw the assignment, and if New England can possess the ball, we are looking at a risk of a down week in terms of both quality of target and raw quantity.

It won’t impact my ranking in a major way when the team names their quarterback for the week, but the math on London is pretty straightforward for me this week: downgrade but play in season-long, fade in DFS.

George Pickens | DAL (vs ARI)

The Cowboys weren’t competitive at all in Denver over the weekend. Still, Dak Prescott did continue to concentrate his targets at a near-Flacco fashion (14 of his 19 completions went to either Pickens or Lamb), and that means that both were usable with over 14 PPR points, even in a blowout loss.

I found it interesting that Patrick Surtain spent some time on Pickens, a sign to me that opponents view Dallas’ WR2 as a game-breaker they want to discourage Prescott from looking downfield.

That’s obviously easier said than done, but if they viewed Lamb as substantially more dangerous, the reigning DPOY would have been glued to him. Pickens hasn’t seen his target profile look much different since his partner in crime returned to the lineup, aside from a minor decline in red-zone usage.

Better days are ahead for this offense, and this is a great launching spot for just that. The point distribution will vary every week, but 35-ish fantasy points for the Lamb/Pickens tandem every week is fair, and that’s all we can ask for.

Ja’Marr Chase | CIN (vs CHI)

Once we got word that Sauce Gardner would be inactive for the Jets, I immediately texted my football group chat a simple prop:

• Ja’Marr Chase targets vs. Justin Fields completions

That’s where we are at these days. Flacco funneled another 19 targets the way of his WR1 (for those wondering, the majority of the chat answered correctly, as Fields’ 21 completions proved to be the winning side), giving him 42 since the veteran took over.

That’s almost hard to understand. Chase has accounted for 53.8% of Flacco’s completions as a Bengal and has been targeted on 51.9% of his throws.

Less than a month ago, we were wondering where the line was. Who was the lowest receiver that you’d play over Chase in a broken Cincy offense?

Now, he’s back where it all started, sitting atop my ranks at the position against a defense that has twice allowed a high-volume receiver to clear 26 PPR points (Amon-Ra St. Brown and Chris Olave).

Jakobi Meyers | LV (vs JAX)

Jakobi Meyers was unable to work through a lower-body injury (knee/toe) for Week 7 against the Chiefs ahead of the bye.

Vegas’ top receiver started the season in strong form (10+ targets in both contests), but he’s averaged just 5.3 per game since, and due to the struggles of Geno Smith, the dip in volume is something that can’t be overcome (Meyers hasn’t finished a week better than PPR WR33 since Week 1).

His status made it to the weekend two weeks ago, and that has me confident he plays this weekend: whether or not that matters to you is a different conversation.

Jacksonville’s defense was torn apart by Matthew Stafford (sans Puka Nacua) in London before their bye, but they’ve played mainly above expectations this season. I’d be looking for excuses to go elsewhere for my PPR flex, as I’m not going to bet on plus-volume until we see Smith turn a corner, especially with Brock Bowers penciled in for a strong share in his likely return.

Jalen Coker | CAR (at GB)

We, as a community, viewed Jalen Coker as the WR2 in this offense during the draft process, but an injury late in the preseason dampened the excitement around him.

Generalized ineptitude from the Panthers’ offense makes this an argument without a real winner, but I do think we got it right.

He returned to action in Week 7 and played just 37.1% of the offensive snaps (Xavier Legette: 8.8%). Last week, however, he was ramped up to 66.1% with Legette’s number falling back to a flat 8.0%.

It would appear to be only a matter of time before Coker is second in command (behind Tetairoa McMillan), and that means we can take pride in having projected this situation accurately.

The problem is, of course, that it doesn’t matter. The Panthers average the fourth-fewest passing yards per game this season (179.5) and allow pressure at the seventh-highest rate. Bryce Young, Andy Dalton, or anyone else you throw under center isn’t going to have the time to move the ball down the field, and that renders the WR2 in this offense all but useless.

I’d rather stash Coker than Legette for the second half of the season, but I’d rather not have to worry about it at all.

Jameson Williams | DET (vs MIN)

Detroit has won five of six games since being physically dominated in Lambeau to kick off the season, and in those five contests, Jameson Williams has seven catches on 18 targets.

We thought he was destined to be a centerpiece of this offense; calling him a secondary option isn’t even accurate.

In your living room, you have the primary couch facing the TV and secondary seating for those less invested in what is going on.

And then you have the tray table that you pull out when Uncle Mikey drops in unexpectedly. That’s what Williams is right now. The Lions look like a real threat in the NFC, and their highlight-making receiver isn’t contributing to it.

That’s not entirely true. His 16-yard ADOT requires defensive attention and thus opens up the shorter, more Goff-friendly routes, but if he’s going to continue to be used as a sacrificial piece, how can we justify starting him?

The big plays are going to come, but to hold down a spot in my lineup week in and week out, I need that to be a piece of the puzzle, not the entire thing.

I’m hopeful that he can get on track sometime over the next month and give us a reason to play him as the stakes grow, but for now, I feel no obligation to play him. In 2022, he turned nine targets (across two games) into 30 yards against this hyper-aggressive Vikings bunch.

It’s gotten to the point where I’m OK with benching the 4-97-2 game that feels like it’ll come at some point if it means not having to absorb the risk of another 2-40-0 type of game.

Jauan Jennings | SF (at NYG)

We know that Jauan Jennings is battling through a laundry list of injuries, but until we get bonus points for toughness, we are left with his production on the field, and it’s been lacking in a pretty significant way.

In October, he averaged 4.9 yards per target, and in an offense where his ceiling for looks in a given week is rarely higher than 7-8, that makes him an awfully tough sell when it comes to roster consideration.

Add in the fact that the receiver room is only going to get healthier in the coming weeks, and we could be looking at a cut candidate before the holiday season.

For now, we hold. Ricky Pearsall and Brandon Aiyuk remain banged up, thus opening up reasonable amounts of volume. Maybe the return of Brock Purdy can help, but I’ll believe that when I see it. Right now, he sits outside of my top 40 at the position in Week 9 for me, checking in behind all-or-nothing types like Alec Pierce and Kayshon Boutte, players with a similar risk profile but more upside at the moment given their form.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA (at WAS)

We spent time this summer worrying about what a move out of the slot would mean for Jaxon Smith-Njigba, with Seattle moving on from the receivers they had banked on for years, thus elevating JSN into a truly featured role.

We nailed the “out of the slot” portion of that.

The “worrying” part? That was silly.

Smith-Njigba’s slot usage has fallen from 77.4% of routes to 19.4%. The loss of those “easier” targets hasn’t mattered in the least.

His average depth of target is up 41.3% from a season ago, and it hasn’t stopped him from earning 10 looks per game. He had a 40-yard catch in each of his first six games this season and has scored in three straight, following his TD in Week 7 against the Texans with an easy dunk on the uprights all in one motion from his route, an impressive athletic feat for a six-footer wearing pads.

I think a 38.3% target share and a 46.3% receiving-yardage share (he has 819 receiving yards and is the only Seahawk at even 300) are probably high-water marks. I have a hard time not penciling in some regression, but even a bit of backtracking keeps him EASILY inside the top 10 the rest of the way.

He’s a matchup-proof alpha. The numbers are expected to continue piling up this week and moving forward, giving you great value based on his preseason ADP.

Whispers … He faces the Panthers in Week 17, giving him every chance to not only be the reason your team makes the playoffs, but the reason you win the whole thing.

Jayden Higgins | HOU (vs DEN)

Jayden Higgins was targeted twice on the first drive, led the team in targets (eight), and scored for the second time in four games (12-yard score from the slot).

The rookie is laying some breadcrumbs, but I think his value is more tied to the status of Collins, and that puts him at risk of completely disappearing as soon as the former Pro Bowler returns to action.

Higgins is an interesting dynasty buy if you’re comfortable betting on the future of Stroud, but barring significant injuries around him, I’d be surprised if he hit your lineup at any point down the stretch of this season.

Jayden Reed | GB (vs CAR)

Jayden Reed underwent foot and clavicle surgeries in the middle of September, and the first half of November has remained the target ever since.

Green Bay’s presumed WR1 scored in Week 1 and was injured on a play in Week 2 that was inches from being a score. It’s only a six-target sample, so do with it what you will, but three came 15+ yards downfield (sub 30% rate in each of his first two seasons).

My thought is that the team was aware of what Tucker Kraft could do in the short receiving game, and the speed of Matthew Golden was anything but a secret, thus opening up Reed to expand his route tree a bit. That’s how he can become a weekly fantasy asset, but he needs to prove himself healthy before anything.

The Packers play the Bears twice in December, matchups that give Reed the potential to crack my top 24 in those impact weeks, should his usage trend in the direction we saw out of the gates.

Jaylin Noel | HOU (vs DEN)

Week 8 was funny for the secondary Texan receivers.

On one hand, if you played any of them, you were okay with the production.

On the other hand, did any of them really change how you view them moving forward? The injuries to Kirk and Collins opened up a ton of opportunity last week, so it was good to see some signs of hope down the depth chart a bit.

That said, with the targets essentially being spread evenly, I worry that when Collins and/or Kirk return, the risk outweighs the reward for both rookie receivers in Houston.

I loved seeing the creativity with running Jaylen Noel downfield on a 44-yard catch in the second quarter, and that’s why he’s my favorite moving forward among the non-established WRs on this roster.

Jordan Addison | MIN (at DET)

Jordan Addison scored on Thursday night in Los Angeles because that’s what he does. The former Trojan has now caught 21 touchdowns in 36 career games, a rate that feels unsustainable, but in labeling it as such, I’ve missed out on much of his fantasy production over the past year.

Don’t get me wrong, his 13.3% target share from last week isn’t encouraging. That said, the QB play in Minnesota has been subpar for much of the season, and while I don’t think J.J. McCarthy channels his inner 2024 Sam Darnold, it does stand to reason that he improves with health and reps.

Addison may not do it in the same way every week, but he’s played four games this season, and he’s cleared 11.5 PPR points every time. There’s risk, but the upside largely mitigates it: the Addison equation, for me, results in him being a strong flex play weekly, even if this matchup isn’t great.

Josh Downs | IND (at PIT)

I’m not sure the talent gap between Josh Downs and Michael Pittman is as close as the 2025 statistics suggest, and that’s going to result in me being higher on the former than most of the industry on a routine basis.

Downs has scored in consecutive games and has worked himself into the slot role, with over 60% of his routes coming there every single week this season.

Could that mean a true breakout game awaits?

The Steelers looked vulnerable all over the field on Sunday night, and, for the season, they rank 20th against that spot on the floor in YPA and 26th in yards per completion.

The fact that Downs has yet to reach 70 air yards caps my enthusiasm, but I don’t think he’s an unreasonable PPR flex this week and is an interesting DFS pivot off of what I assume will be very popular pieces elsewhere on this offense.

Joshua Palmer | BUF (vs KC)

A combination injury (knee/ankle) kept Josh Palmer out of action last week, his first DNP of the season for the Bills, but hopefully, it’s far from it for your fantasy lineup.

Palmer’s name was a hot one this summer in Upstate New York, and with nine targets in the opener, there seemed to be a thread to pull.

Not so much.

He’s earned 11 opportunities in five games since. While the target hierarchy in this offense remains unsettled, it’s pretty clear that Palmer is an accent piece, deployed in very specific spots and nothing else.

There’s no reason to keep holding here. If desperate times call for desperate measures, and you want exposure to a high-powered offense, Palmer has had four games in which he’s played north of 40% of the snaps.

But those have been empty-calorie snaps, and I think there’s a good chance there are a dozen players on your waiver wire that I’d rather roll the dice on over Palmer, even when he’s at full strength.

Justin Jefferson | MIN (at DET)

Justin Jefferson has 10+ targets and a 35-yard grab in six straight games, and the NFL has no idea how to contain him.

“The NFL” includes the Vikings and their offensive struggles at times this season. The quarterback play has been below average, to say the least, and the running game spotty at best, but no matter the surrounding environment, Jefferson always seems to get his.

That’s what puts him in the overall WR1 discussion for me. I don’t think his ceiling is the same as some of the alpha pass-catchers out there — not as this roster currently stands, anyway — but the ability to overcome the situation and seemingly never let fantasy managers down is a skill reserved for the elite of the elite.

For his career, Jefferson is 37.5% more likely to give you 25+ PPR points than leave you with less than 10. That rate would be amazing if it were a stat for a star receiver split off only in games with a Hall of Fame QB.

That’s not the case. That’s for his entire career. A career that hasn’t exactly been filled with Hall of Fame-level targets.

Kayshon Boutte | NE (vs ATL)

Kayshon Boutte does it again!

These single-play weeks are racking up, and while he’s never going to be a comfortable play (22 targets in his past seven games), there is no denying that Drake Maye trusts him when afforded time to throw downfield.

Touchdown Lengths This Season

• 39 yards (Sunday)
• 39 yards
• 29 yards
• 25 yards
• 16 yards

Of course, it’s not sustainable, but the odds are that you’re not asking it to be.

If you’re backed into a corner, you’re begging for a single play to make your day, and that’s exactly what Boutte is offering. His 17.7-aDOT ranks among the elite, and with his snap percentage up for a third straight week, this is the dart to throw if you’re in a very specific spot.

Keenan Allen | LAC (at TEN)

A low-volume passing attack hurt Keenan Allen’s bottom line on Thursday night (four catches for 44 yards), but an 80% catch rate and a 20.8% target share are nothing to sneeze at.

Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnston have had roller coaster seasons up to this point, something that Allen seems immune to. His ceiling may not touch what his younger teammates have access to, but the elevated floor is valuable (I’d argue more valuable in some roster constructions).

Allen has more catches on third down this season than any of his teammates have targets, and his stabilizing force is what gives this pass-centric offense a level of balance. He’s an extension of their running game, and until proven otherwise, I’m ranking that as PPR lineup viable every single week.

Kendrick Bourne | SF (at NYG)

With reinforcements seemingly on the way for the 49ers, Kendrick Bourne is trending off of fantasy rosters with a total of six targets and 58 yards over the past two weeks.

He’s not a bad player, and this is a great system, but it’s hard to pencil him in for much in the way of opportunities when Ricky Pearsall or Brandon Aiyuk return, let alone when both are there.

Due to the lengthy injuries to those ahead of him on the depth chart, I’d keep Bourne rostered. If he’s penciled into the WR2 role in a Kyle Shanahan system, you could do far worse when it comes to streamers.

Be ready to pivot with time, but for right now, he’s a low-end flex that you should only consider deploying if absolutely pressed (under 45 receiving yards in five of his seven games).

Keon Coleman | BUF (vs KC)

If the Bills were struggling, you could sell me on an expansion of Keon Coleman’s ripple, but with them getting the train back on the tracks with a 31-point win in Carolina, he’s basically a fancy Rashod Bateman these days.

I’m kidding.

Sort of.

You like the profile and the offensive environment, but no tangible numbers are pointing to short-term success.

Sounds like Bateman, no?

Coleman has failed to earn more than four targets in four of his past six games, and with the Khalil Shakir/James Cook tandem showing plenty capable of producing next to Josh Allen, what motivation does this team have to feature their big play threat in a way that matters?

Coleman can remain rostered if you want an athletic player to plug in in case you’re absolutely backed into a corner. Still, I can’t imagine a world moving forward in which you’re excited about playing the second-year WR.

Khalil Shakir | BUF (vs KC)

For the third time in four games, Khalil Shakir caught 5+ passes; he just happened to flash his elite YAC ability on one of them against the Panthers, elevating his stable PPR floor into a ceiling week.

He turned a shallow comeback route into a 54-yard catch-and-run, a skill that he has honed during his career.

You obviously can’t count on plays like that weekly, but the efficiency (85.7% catch rate on Sunday and 75.7% for his career) is here to stay. In this Josh Allen-led attack, Shakir holds weekly PPR value, even if the ceiling is rarely overwhelming.

Remember: it’s not the job of every player on your team to put you over the top. Players like Shakir are common on championship teams; they just don’t get the headlines of the highlight makers.

Ladd McConkey | LAC (at TEN)

We are so back.

It was delayed, but you’re now in a position to get what you paid for this summer in Ladd McConkey, as he’s seen double-digit targets in consecutive weeks and has scored in three of his past four.

Over his past three games, 40.9% of his receptions have come on balls thrown past the sticks, a nice spike from the 23.8% rate he had prior and a path to real upside as he absorbs some of the role that the ghost of Quentin Johnston has left behind.

I’m not ready to call him a top 10 receiver the rest of the way just yet. I still worry about a bit of skill repetition with Keenan Allen, but he’s the Bolt WR I want, and he’s a no-brainer starter in all formats.

Luther Burden III | CHI (at CIN)

Luther Burden exited last week’s loss to the Ravens with a head injury and isn’t the type of player we need to be patient with.

The rookie entered the season with some hope, but considering that he has more games without multiple receptions than with, there’s no reason to stay married to this preseason take.

Caleb Williams needs to play better, and this is as good a get-right spot as there is, but his turning things around will benefit at least three other pass catchers more than Burden, and that’s what I have no interest in holding him at the end of benches.

“What do you win if you win?”

The absolute best-case scenario for Burden at this point is that he’s a gadgety player that you never know what you’re signing up for.

I have higher standards.

Marquise Brown | KC (at BUF)

The idea of investing in this Kansas City passing game makes sense, but they appear to be locked into their staple scheme, and that doesn’t leave much food on the table for a fourth option (Travis Kelce, Rashee Rice, and Xavier Worthy are already locked in).

On Monday night, Rice and Worthy cleared 55 snaps and 30 routes while Marquise Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster both fell short of 30 snaps and failed to surpass 20 routes.

Patrick Mahomes is playing at a high enough level to make up for a limited role, and any injury would open up a tremendous opportunity, so you need to keep Hollywood rostered. Still, I don’t think you can justify considering him for your flex spot until something ahead of him changes.

Not helping his case was the fact that his lone target last week was intercepted, but he caught just two passes the week prior in Rice’s season debut: this isn’t an offense interested in sustaining a third receiver.

Marvin Harrison Jr. | ARI (at DAL)

After a nice 2025 debut, Marvin Harrison Jr. has one top-20 finish and just two weeks as a top-40 performer at the position.

Can we count on a bye to right the ship?

I don’t think so, but banking on a Dallas matchup isn’t a bad idea for those worried about the short-term over everything else.

Harrison has a 30+ yard catch in the majority of his contests this season, and that counts for something. But with just two end zone targets during the five-game losing streak and one game with double-digit expected PPR points over his past six, this profile doesn’t come close to matching the pedigree.

You’re starting Arizona’s WR1 this week because his 5-6 targets hit differently in a matchup like this, but be aware that you’re holding a distressed fantasy asset that isn’t showing signs of emerging as the type of producer we’ve been hoping for.

Marvin Mims Jr. | DEN (at HOU)

Marvin Mims caught six of seven targets in the Week 7 win over the Giants, but that seems to be a red herring. He was held without a catch last week against the Cowboys before exiting with a head injury, and given the depth of pass catchers on this roster, I think you’re safe to move on.

There’s single-play upside in this profile, but we are talking about a receiver who has run under 20 routes in three of his past four and has no more than 30 receiving yards in six games this season.

Mims is averaging 7.2 expected PPR points per game this season, not nearly enough for me to hold through an injury that could well open the door for talented young receivers behind him to work into larger roles.

Matthew Golden | GB (vs CAR)

I hate to say it.

I don’t want to say it.

You can’t make me say it.

But I have to say it because you — the people — deserve my honest thoughts.

Matthew Golden can be dropped.

This isn’t because he turned three catches into four yards last week or because he went through October without seeing an end-zone target; it’s because I see a white flag being raised by this offense.

Initially, he was drafted for his big-play potential. The blinding speed was an asset that this offense would use to offset a traditional run game and put the opposition in a bind.

That idea made sense, but they never fully committed to it. And now, with Christian Watson back, where does Golden go?

He’s finished consecutive games with a sub-four-yard aDOT, and that feels forced. They are trying to get him in space, but this isn’t what he excels at, and asking him to make a change like that midseason of his rookie year smells more like desperation than seeing a pathway to success.

Oh, and Reed will return at some point, the king of short targets in Green Bay these days.

I’m sure that Golden will have a few chunk plays over the next two months. Heck, we might see one on Sunday. My larger point is that I believe we’ve reached a point of no return. At no point am I going to feel comfortable starting Golden this season (barring a bunch of injuries ahead of him), and for me, that puts you on the drop list.

I’m not suggesting you drop him for a backup kicker, but I think you understand what I’m saying. This is a profile filled with red flags, and a player without a short-term path to correcting them.

Michael Pittman Jr. | IND (at PIT)

I don’t want to say he’s the most underappreciated receiver in the league, but he’s on the short list.

Michael Pittman reeled in a 21-yard score last week with the defender draped (illegally) all over him. It didn’t matter. The score helped him finish the week as a top 22 receiver for the sixth time this season, and more important than the single play was the target earning.

The risk that comes with potent offenses like this is volume. They score too fast, so the play count suffers, lowering the floor for everyone involved (while also raising the ceiling because of the points they put on the board).

It can be a strange dynamic, but he earned a 34.6% target share last week, and that’s a great way to mitigate that risk. Pittman is capable of winning down the field, but it’s far less predictable than it was a season ago, and with him seeing only 14.3% of his targets 15+ yards past the line of scrimmage (29.7% last season), he’s not reliant on those less efficient plays.

I have Pittman ranked as my WR11 this week, and I’m more concerned about being too low than too high.

Nico Collins | HOU (vs DEN)

As expected, the late concussion in Week 7 prevented Collins from taking the field last week against the 49ers.

The quality of looks has been a problem for Houston’s star, but the general role hasn’t been, and that’s why he is still a no-brainer start for me when healthy, something that has been the case for the vast majority of players a week after a concussion DNP.

For his career, Collins owns an 11.6-yard aDOT and a 24.8% on-field target share. This season, those numbers are 11.4 and 26.3% respectively, usage that I’ll trust given the upside in this profile.

Is this matchup great? Of course not. Is his supporting cast great? Not even close.

Is he one of the few players who can overcome that and punish you for doubting him?

For me, unquestionably yes. If the Texans are comfortable enough with his health, I’ll downgrade Collins a touch for the matchup, but not nearly enough to justify any actionable change on your part.

Pat Bryant | DEN (at HOU)

Pat Bryant has yet to reach 25 routes or a 60% snap share in an NFL game, but he got in on the fun last week against Dallas with his first score, a play that served as a good reminder of why we liked this profile in the preseason.

The 24-yard TD was a nice mix of athleticism and awareness: raw ability and grace.

Personally, I think he’s the real deal and a must-get in dynasty situations. When it comes to redraft, I need him to be on the field more before he gets a top 40 ranking from me. The talent isn’t a question in the slightest, but Nix hasn’t been the most consistent QB this season, and you’re playing a thin parlay if you want him to look good during the snaps that Bryant is on the field.

If he can bump into the 70% range of snaps, we might be onto something. That could happen during the second half of this season, though I’m not expecting it. Keep Bryant rostered for now and hope that his path to playing time clears.

Puka Nacua | LAR (vs NO)

The bye week came at the perfect time for the Rams, as all signs point to their time without Puka Nacua (foot) being held to just the one game.

His red zone target rate has nearly been halved from last season (17.2% from 34.3%), so I’m not comfortable blindly assuming that there is more TD equity in his volume than what we’ve seen up to this point.

That said, it doesn’t really matter. He’s recorded 10+ catches in four of five healthy games — a remarkable feat without any context added — but with a 13.8% spike in aDOT, it’s borderline ludicrous.

Nacua has as good a shot to be the top scorer at the position for the remainder of the season as anyone and could put your team over the top as you prepare for the fantasy playoffs (road dates with the Panthers and Cardinals in Weeks 13-14).

Quentin Johnston | LAC (at TEN)

This is getting ugly in a hurry, and while I don’t think we are fully back to the Quentin Johnston expectations (or lack thereof) from the past, we are certainly trending in that direction.

On Thursday night against the Vikings, he turned 27 routes into zero targets. Forget the zero receptions; he didn’t even earn the right to have a chance to hit the box score. Had the Chargers struggled, I could hop in here and say things like “something has to change” or parrot the great Jerry Seinfeld with “if everything they did was wrong, then the opposite has to be right”.

They won 37-10 and looked great.

Ladd McConkey is back in form, and 90% of balls thrown to Keenan Allen or Oronde Gadsden were completed. The explosion of the tight end has come entirely at the cost of their former WR1 (last three games: six receptions on 115 routes), and with the team averaging 30 points over that stretch, what motivation do they have to revert to what we saw in September?

None.

Herbert has dialed back the aggression by 5.1%, making this offense more consistent. Johnston is going to have viable fantasy weeks moving forward, but he’s now much closer to the Matthew Golden mold of field-stretching asset than the Pickens version we saw early on.

Hold for roster depth, but I’m not going to be comfortable in starting him until after I see proof of concept in this post-Oronde Gadsden breakout world.

Rashee Rice | KC (at BUF)

The list of receivers you’d rather have than Rashee Rice moving forward is short at best and potentially non-existent.

• 52 routes
• 19 targets
• 16 catches
• 135 yards
• 3 TDs

He walked into a Chiefs offense that was trending up and has made them look close to unstoppable. Washington did about as good a job as anyone with them in the first half on Monday night, but give Andy Reid/Mahomes time, and they are going to eat you alive.

This offense was close to perfect in the second half, and their WR1 was a big part of it. He’s averaged over 2.3 fantasy points per target in both of his games this season and currently owns a 2.8-yard aDOT.

The Chiefs are as creative as it gets, but the plan here is simple. They are aware that defenses prefer them to beat them with paper cuts, and they now have access to one of the premier ‘turn-a-paper-cut-into-a-fatal-wound’ receivers in the game.

Kansas City goes on by next week and still has both Denver games ahead of them. If there’s a last chance for you to acquire Rice, it’s coming up. You’re not going to get him at any sort of discount, but it’s possible that the team with him is struggling, and the idea of an off week followed by a tough matchup might be too much for them to absorb.

Rashid Shaheed | NO (at LAR)

We obviously aren’t talking about a large sample size from Shough, but what we have seen up to this point works in Rashid Shaheed’s favor.

Usage With Tyler Shough Under Center

• Shaheed: 8 targets on 23 routes
• Juwan Johnson: 6 targets on 30 routes
• Chris Olave: 6 targets on 31 routes

Shough missed Shaheed on what probably should have been a 34-yard touchdown last week. Missed opportunities, sadly, are going to be a part of the experience in New Orleans until they solve the quarterback position, and that’s why I don’t think you can feel great about Shaheed as a flex option.

Not yet.

Give me another week of plus-volume, and I may change my tune. But Olave does profile as the stronger target earner, and I am very much skeptical about betting on two members of this offense succeeding in a way that matters to us.

Ricky Pearsall | SF (at NYG)

The 49ers coaching staff continues to tell us that Ricky Pearsall is progressing and hasn’t suffered a setback, but we’ve yet to get much clarity on a return timeline, and that’s a worry.

This is a knee injury that he described as “unstable”. That would be a concerning diagnosis for anyone, never mind a player who thrives on making plays down the field (16.4 yards per catch in his four games this season, 14.3 for his career).

I’m skeptical at best that Pearsall is going to return to the weekly lineup conversation this season, but we have no choice but to wait. This roster as a whole has struggled to stay on the field, and that could carve out an opportunity for Pearsall to earn 5-7 targets weekly if healthy.

But there are many moving pieces. I’m considering Pearsall a bonus if he helps me in the stretch run, assuming I won’t have access to his upside.

Rome Odunze | CHI (at CIN)

I don’t want to be overly dramatic, but Week 8 was good for the soul if you rostered Rome Odunze.

After totaling just 10.3 PPR points across two games post-bye, he was open for much of Sunday’s loss in Baltimore, and even a struggling Caleb Williams was able to find him.

The second-year standout doesn’t come off the field (93%+ of the snaps in three straight) and turned his 10 targets into seven grabs for 114 yards. The 14.1 aDOT this season speaks to Chicago loving what he brings to the table vertically, but don’t sleep on his slot usage, which has always hovered around 30%: this feels like a piece on the chessboard that Ben Johnson is comfortable with.

Odunze caught passes of 7, 13, and 16 yards on the first drive last week, and I think we continue to see him scripted into the action moving forward. The Bengals have struggled across the board defensively for 13 months now, and while that can sometimes mean the ground game takes over, they have allowed a receiver to crack 15 PPR points in five of eight weeks.

Odunze is the clear-cut top threat in an offense that will be forced to be aggressive most weeks: he’s a WR1 for me both this week and for the remainder of the season.

Romeo Doubs | GB (vs CAR)

The good news is that Romeo Doubs saw six targets against the Steelers on Sunday night, his fourth straight game with at least that many looks. He’s recorded a catch gaining more than 15 yards in every contest this season, so there’s something to be said for his consistency in this offense, even if the ceiling gets lower weekly.

The return of Christian Watson last week creates one more downfield threat to worry about. I believe that Doubs can win in the short area at a higher rate than Watson or Dontavion Wicks types, but if we are requiring volume for him to pay the fantasy bills, I worry, given the nature of this offense.

Tucker Kreft isn’t going away, and Jayden Reed will be back at some point. Combine those facts with the hard-nosed running of Josh Jacobs, and I think it’s very possible that there isn’t a single Packer WR we are comfortable starting come Thanksgiving.

For now, I think you can get away with using “offensive upside” as an excuse for playing Doubs as a low-end flex. We know he is a capable player with the ball in his hands, and with Jordan Love locked in, this 6-8 target role is going to be good for 10+ PPR points far more often than not.

Stefon Diggs | NE (vs ATL)

Stefon Diggs found the end zone for the first time this season last week on a one-yard slant that he’ll cash in whenever given the opportunity.

The score was good to see, but the need for it scares me.

Drake Maye is spreading the ball around at a high level, and that is great for New England but bad for us. Kayshon Boutte is making plays down the field weekly, and DeMario Douglas gets involved on occasion, not to mention the RBs/TEs soaking up looks.

Diggs is my favorite of this bunch: that doesn’t mean he’s a lineup lock, especially should he draw shadow coverage this week. The veteran receiver has been held under 35 receiving yards in four games this season, and with scoring equity low (one end-zone target on his 192 routes this season), the risk is at least equal to the potential reward.

He sits just outside of my top 30 this week, next to names like Quentin Johnston and Xavier Worthy that are carrying plenty of risk themselves.

Tee Higgins | CIN (vs CHI)

Tee Higgins wasn’t involved in the first few drives last week, but it can flip in a hurry: 44-yard touchdown as Joe Flacco identified single coverage and went for it.

That’s what was missing from this offense after the Joe Burrow injury: the willingness to take a chance and trust the elite talent.

Was it concerning that Higgins finished the 39-38 loss with just that one catch (two targets on 29 routes)? A little bit, but it’s clear that he is in the Flacco circle of trust and that the veteran QB isn’t going to swerve off that path.

I still think 6-8 targets is the most likely outcome for him against the third-worst YPA defense in the league, and that is a profile I’m buying as my WR2 without a second thought.

Terry McLaurin | WAS (vs SEA)

In his return from the quad injury, Terry McLaurin was a part of a rotation. The game wasn’t competitive late, but even in the first half, Deebo Samuel was on the field for 81.3% of Washington’s offensive snaps while McLaurin, Luke McCaffrey, Jaylin Lane, and Chris Moore all checked in from 25-60%.

I expect that to change this week, barring any hiccups at practice, and that means you can feel fine about flexing McLaurin against the Seahawks.

Seattle has an above-average defense, but they have allowed an opposing WR to clear 18.5 PPR points in three of its past four games. We can argue as to who the top receiver is for the Commanders, but McLaurin is a part of that conversation, and that gives him top 15 upside for the week.

I rank him a little lower than that to adjust for the risk, but I’m starting him wherever I have him. I saw enough on Monday night to have me convinced that he is reasonably healthy.

Tetairoa McMillan | CAR (at GB)

McMillan is coming off catching a career-high seven passes against the Bills in a blowout loss, and we could get a similar path to production this week in Lambeau.

The rookie has earned targets like a player well beyond his level of experience, and that’s a great first step. The quality of targets is the primary issue, and while we can’t fix it this season, the hope is that it gets sorted out over time.

McMillan has cleared 100 air yards five times this season, and I think a sixth such performance is more than likely on Sunday. Playing anyone attached to this offense comes with risk, but the math works in your favor given the role, and that’s why I have T-Mac as a low-end WR2 this week, even in a difficult matchup.

Tory Horton | SEA (at WAS)

This preseason was filled with speculation that Tory Horton could earn the WR2 role in this offense, but there seems to be motivation to do that, and that means you can move on without a second thought.

The rookie hasn’t run 20 routes in a game this season and had consecutive games without a reception entering the bye: there are some prospects to wait on, but this isn’t one of them.

Travis Hunter | JAX (at LV)

A sharp route, a well-timed pass, and an end zone dance.

It was art in London in Week 7; it just happened to come with the Rams playing conservatively on defense, thanks to a 28-0 lead.

They all count, so Hunter getting on the board was great to see, but I’m far from ready to say that he’s been unleashed. The usage is trending in the right direction, but Trevor Lawrence is struggling to find anything close to consistency. Until that’s the case, I have reservations about using Hunter with confidence.

Weekly Participation Report

• Week 1: 27 routes, 6 defensive snaps
• Week 2: 27 routes, 39 defensive snaps
• Week 3: 27 routes, 41 defensive snaps
• Week 4: 23 routes, 9 defensive snaps
• Week 5: 26 routes, 25 defensive snaps
• Week 6: 44 routes, 22 defensive snaps
• Week 7: 51 routes, 12 defensive snaps

That said, the talent is obvious. He’s a special player with the ball in his hands, and that much is clear.

And just like that, we will be without him for the next month.

News broke on Friday that Hunter was placed on IR with a knee injury and that could end any hopes of him giving us viable weekly value this season.

Early reports seem to suggest that he’ll return this season, but in what capacity? What is Jacksonville’s motivation level come December?

Keep him rostered until we have more information, but this is a tough break at a bad time.

Troy Franklin | DEN (at HOU)

Troy Franklin has scored three times over the past two weeks and has four games in his second season with at least eight targets.

We knew that we wanted a second member of his passing attack to establish himself, and the former Duck is getting close to being just that (four first-quarter targets last week against the Cowboys tell me that his involvement was scripted in).

Nix’s trust is clear and valuable. Franklin has six end zone targets, nine red zone touches, and has been targeted on 40% of his red zone routes. All of those are strong marks, and if he can sustain usage close to that, he’s going to prove worthy of flex consideration down the stretch.

I’m not there just yet.

This is a tough matchup, and Nix still has to show me the consistency I need to rank multiple pass catchers as weekly assets. You’re happy to have Franklin on your roster right now and are being patient about using him as a starter.

Wan’Dale Robinson | NYG (vs SF)

I understand that Wan’Dale Robinson has failed to reach 8.5 PPR points in four of his past six games and went through October without seeing a target in the end zone, but this is a profile I’m holding for now.

The slot machine has run 28+ routes in every game this season, and with the Cam Skaatebo injury, his role could be magnified as the short pass game may be what the Giants turn to as opposed to asking Tyrone Tracy to run RB dives.

It may not be, but the fact that there is a path to an uptick in volume from a highly efficient player and a developing QB is all I need. Robinson isn’t a top-35 receiver for me this week, but I’ll be tracking him closely.

The end of the season can get goofy at times, and matchups with the Commanders, Vikings, and Raiders to close (the Cowboys if your league extends to Week 18) are at least interesting enough for me to stash a player like this whose skill set is proven.

Xavier Legette | CAR (at GB)

This is why sample sizes are important.

We have a larger sample size showing that Xavier Legette is on the lower end of the average. We had nearly that same data set this time last week; the only difference was that he was coming off a weird outlier game where he went 9-92-1 against a Jets team that used Sauce Gardner to cover the other half of the field.

The recency of the big game made Legette a popular mention in our Start/Sit tool and even spilled over into my social life, with my wife scolding me for recommending she bench him in Week 7.

She started him last week.

Score one for me.

If you’re chasing tail outcomes, you can do whatever you want weekly. If you’re in the business of making responsible fantasy decisions, I don’t think you’re ever going to land on Legette (three targets in a 31-point loss generally doesn’t happen to players that teams view as a vital part of what they want to do through the air.

Xavier Worthy | KC (at BUF)

This is pretty clearly going to require some finessing, but Monday night was a step in the right direction.

• Week 7 (Rice’s debut): 30 routes, 4 targets (0 deep), 3 catches
• Week 8: 35 routes, 7 targets (3 deep), 5 catches

What the “right” answer is to the Worthy route tree is going to change weekly based on game flow and the matchup, but more involvement last week was good to see, and those shot attempts are obviously how we hit a home run.

Patrick Mahomes hit Worthy for a 27-yard chunk play on the first drive last week: this is an ultra-talented offense that is beginning to find its footing. Worthy is the piece I worry most about, but he remains a flexible piece for me, and it’s easy to see his path to a top 15 week.

Tight Ends

AJ Barner | SEA (at WAS)

AJ Barner has touched the ball 21 times this season, and six have come in the red zone. He’s failed to catch more than three passes in six of seven games, an alarming trend given that Sam Darnold is playing at about as high a level as we can reasonably expect.

In theory, this offense needs someone to draw defensive attention away from Jaxon Smith-Njigba. That leaves Barner on the streamer radar, though it seems likely that Seattle will fill that role by committee.

Barner is a prototypical streamer. If you’re holding, you’re probably leaving food on the table to target a Week 17 date with the Panthers.

Brock Bowers | LV (vs JAX)

We haven’t seen Brock Bowers since September, and while the knee was obviously bothering him for three of his four games played, he was still just one of four TEs with at least four grabs in each week during the first month of the season.

Forget about the draft capital you spent on him. You’re not going to get a good return on that. But do you have a starter at the ugliest position in the sport? You do.

This offense is limited in various ways. While the Michael Mayer usage is likely here to stay, if we get anything close to a healthy version of Bowers, he’ll earn enough in the way of opportunities to make playing him far better than spinning the wheel of randomness on the waiver wire.

Chig Okonkwo | TEN (vs LAC)

Chig Okonkwo is an efficient player by nature (a short route running athlete), and we’ve seen that with Ward this season (80% catch rate or better in three of his past four games).

Even with that in hand, there’s just not enough meat on this bone, even at the tight end position. He has six career touchdowns, and this offense largely isn’t in the same zip code as the end zone. Okonkwo has been unable to find much of a ceiling with Ridley sidelined, and that puts him at the very back end of TE streamers moving forward.

He plays and he sees targets. That alone is worthy of keeping eyes on him, but until we see Ward take a meaningful step forward, there’s not much to chase.

Cole Kmet | CHI (at CIN)

A back injury kept Cole Kmet out of practice last week and resulted in the first DNP of his career.

All Iron Man streaks must come to an end at some point, and while it was a good run for the former Golden Domer, his time as a fantasy asset ended back in September.

Colston Loveland’s work was trending in the right direction before either TE got banged up, and this injury simply opens the door for Ben Johnson to play with his new toy. If you held onto Kmet during Loveland’s missed time, you can safely move on.

As for the Loveland owners, this is the opportunity you were hoping for when you drafted him. The end-of-season schedule is tough (though I read less into that for tight ends than any other position), but this week and next (vs. NYG) are certainly spots for him to make a grand impression.

Colston Loveland | CHI (at CIN)

With Cole Kmet (back) sidelined and a vulnerable Ravens defense lining up across from him, the stage was set for a Colston Loveland breakout game that elevated him to league-winner chatter down the stretch of this fantasy season.

38 yards on 32 routes later, and we are left with more questions than answers.

The rookie was the target of Caleb Williams’ first pass (18-yard gain), but that was about it. He finished the 30-16 loss with a 14.3% target share, a role that isn’t rosterable given the trajectory of this passing game.

I won’t be surprised if he develops over time: it feels inevitable given his pedigree and coaching. Just because I could see it happening doesn’t mean I’m actively betting on it.

Loveland is to be viewed as a reasonable streamer and nothing more — a major loss from this past weekend — but we can’t cry over spilled milk — or unrealized opportunities. We can only aim to stream in better production as crunch time in the fantasy postseason nears.

Dalton Kincaid | BUF (vs KC)

We can blame game script all we want when it comes to Dalton Kincaid’s underwhelming Week 8 performance (one catch for 23 yards), but the game played to that script without the tight end doing much, and that’s largely the problem.

He’s scored three times this season, and that’s great, but the volatility in his yardage totals (37-66-28-108-23) puts a lot of weight on a skill that we haven’t seen him flash with consistency.

He’s attached to a strong offense that lacks an elite target-earner. That profile earns him top priority on the streaming radar (or maybe the low-end of the weekly options), but he’s not the type of tight end that makes me feel like I have the position figured out.

I’m fine if you want to hold him. He can be your safety school. That is, if something better comes along, you take it, but you’re not forcing the issue.

Dalton Schultz | HOU (vs DEN)

Dalton Schultz battled through an apparent shoulder injury during the second half, but one week after he recorded season bests in yards per route, fantasy points, targets, and fantasy points relative to expectations, he had his worst week in each of those categories against the 49ers.

Fun times.

The disappointment came not in us expecting the Week 7 success to be sustained, but in the fact that he’d be a safe option in a game where both Collins and Kirk were inactive.

He had a window of opportunity to elevate to a different tier at the position, but he failed miserably. Schultz is an average target earner in an offense with upside, a sentence I’ve penned this season about Loveland, Kincaid, and Hunter Henry, among others.

I’m giving him one more week where I can, but by no means should you feel obligated to do so.

Evan Engram | DEN (at HOU)

Evan Engram caught four balls on 15 routes last week against the Cowboys, but this offense was successful in everything it tried against the team in Texas that doesn’t play defense — an unlikely outcome this week.

On the whole, I’m still a touch more optimistic on this profile than the industry seems to be. He’s caught 4+ passes in five straight games, and if he cashed in a catch that ended at the two-yard line last week, we are looking at him differently.

I’m not here to sell you on Engram as a difference-maker. He’s not. I don’t think any Bronco besides Sutton has access to that label. But at this position and given the lack of established target earners in Denver, I have Engram as part of the locked-in weekly starter tier, and that’s an important distinction.

George Kittle | SF (at NYG)

George Kittle was held without a catch on 24 routes in his Week 7 return to action, but National Tight End Day brought out the version of the former All-Pro that we are more accustomed to:

• 33 routes
• 4 catches
• 14.3 PPR points

He hauled in Mac Jones’ first completed pass of last week’s loss in Houston and was clearly scripted into the plan. I think you can expect more of the same moving forward, no matter who is under center and which pass catchers are active.

Kittle is a Tier 2 player at the position and has more room to move up than down due to the underwhelming nature of the others in this range.

Hunter Henry | NE (vs ATL)

Henry was schemed up a touchdown in the third quarter. Following a jet sweep, the Pats faked a similar action, rolled out Drake Maye from the seven-yard line, and put Henry three yards in front of him on a half of the field that was close to vacated.

It was great to see, but it was also all we saw of the tight end.

Like, literally.

He ran 25 routes in the win over the Browns, and that was his only target. I want to believe in him because I don’t trust the secondary receivers on this offense and am buying any Maye stock I can, but with 15 targets during this five-game win streak, the floor is just so low every week.

Henry is a priority streamer for me. That is, he’s in the streamer class, but the type that I’ll hold onto until I’m really sold on another option as opposed to committing to the weekly matchup-driven add/drop.

It may sound like a distinction without a difference, but there’s a level of feel in the TE game for those of us without a top-tier option at the position, and I’ll take my chances with 25+ routes attached to an upward-trending offense.

For now.

Ja’Tavion Sanders | CAR (at GB)

The playing time ticked up in his second game back from injury, but Ja’Tavion Sanders was under 20 routes run again on Sunday against the Bills. While game script factored into him not exactly being extended late, that’s a common risk for the 2025 Panthers.

I think he’s a part of the long-term outlook of this offense, but he’s just that: the future. The future is not now for Carolina, and that means you can do better with a handful of TEs that are in your waiver wire pool every week.

Jake Ferguson | DAL (vs ARI)

The Cowboys were boat-raced by the Broncos in Denver last weekend, and that sent this offense into a spiral rather quickly.

Jake Ferguson, fantasy’s TE1 entering the week, saw nothing but a forced target at the end of the first half, a pass that Prescott pretty clearly predetermined, and you get what you deserve in the National Football League when you do that.

An interception that never really had a chance at being anything but that.

I’m willing to chalk this one up and move on. Ferguson still ran 30 routes, Dallas just happened to fall into the trap of trying to make a 20-point comeback on a single play, and they have a pair of receivers who are more capable of producing the massive play than their tight end.

The Cardinals were victimized by a high-level defense in their two games before the Week 8 bye (Tyler Vaughn and Tucker Kraft combined for 35.1 PPR points against them), and I’d expect a strong bounce-back effort from Ferguson.

He’s my TE5 this week, and even that is more a product of matchups for the four ahead of him. There’s not a decision to be made here, and there won’t be for the rest of the season.

Jake Tonges | SF (at NYG)

A week after I tell you that you can move on from Jake Tonges without concern, he scores.

That’s how this game works.

I stand by what I said. George Kittle is clearly healthy, as evidenced by his 33-4 route edge over San Francisco’s TE2, and while the touchdown was good to see, this isn’t the type of role that deserves to even be on your streaming radar.

Jonnu Smith | PIT (vs IND)

If you’re asking which Pittsburgh TE to stream, you’re asking the wrong question.

Jonnu Smith held the slight edge over his teammates in snaps and routes, but it was Pat Freiermuth who led in targets, and Darnell Washington who continues to be viewed as an asset in scoring situations.

Smith caught five passes in the season opener and hasn’t had a game like that since. The lack of volume is one thing, and the fact that he has failed to record a catch gaining more than 10 yards in six of seven games is disturbing, given what we saw in Miami last season.

There isn’t a member of the Steelers’ passing game that needs to be rostered in anything but the deepest leagues, aside from Metcalf.

Juwan Johnson | NO (at LAR)

The profile of Juwan Johnson is an easy sell, and that’s what makes him a streaming option every week, but the offensive environment is what makes him a safe play exactly 0% of the time.

He’s been on the field for 85.8% of New Orleans’ offensive snaps this season and ran 46 routes in Sunday’s loss to the Bucs. They clearly like what he can do out in space, and we know this team is going to be in a passing script more often than not, creating a path to double-digit PPR points, which he’s now done five times.

But where’s the ceiling?

Johnson hasn’t scored since Week 2 and has more games under 30 receiving yards this season than ones of 55+. The Saints’ offense is broken and concentrated on their top two receivers, a tough combination for a TE to survive in for fantasy purposes.

If you’re cycling through the position and want to hold out hope because the Rams have allowed a TE to clear 17 PPR points twice over the past five weeks, be my guest. You know the risks that are involved, and his median range of outcomes isn’t friendly: he’s my TE20 for Week 9.

Kyle Pitts Sr. | ATL (at NE)

Cousins’ first three completions went to Pitts in the disturbing 24-point loss to the Dolphins last week, and he finished with a season-high nine grabs.

The 30% target share was great to see, but context is needed. The script got away from the Falcons against a bad defense, with a QB who is more adept at throwing than their weekly starter.

That’s a pretty strong set of circumstances, and not ones that I’d rely on sustaining. That said, they were unable to move the ball on the ground and again turned to Pitts as a supplemental option (4.6-yard aDOT).

That, my friends, could happen again as Atlanta stays within the AFC East to face the best run defense in the league.

The ceiling is low, and I’m not 100% sure that the floor is all that high. I just made the case that a stifled run game helped Pitts … it did, but we are talking about an offense with one of the five best running backs in the sport, so that’s not exactly a thread I want to pull on weekly.

He’s running 33.3 routes per game for a team that is an underdog. It’s sad, but that gets you into my top 15 at the position, and the high catch rate that comes with his role in this offense moves him into the top 10 conversation.

Noah Fant | CIN (vs CHI)

The Bengals are a remarkably concentrated offense, and that’s great if the player you’re rostering is a part of it. If not, you’re drawing dead.

With Noah Fant, you’re drawing dead.

Flacco is pretty clearly passing the logic test in Cincinnati: feed the difference makers, and feed them as often as humanly possible.

Fant ran a route on 15 of 27 offensive snaps, while Tanner Hudson did so on 10 of 11. The opportunity pie is small if you’re not one of the star receivers on this team, and the fact that it’s split two ways makes it of zero interest to me, even in situations where I’m looking to the wire weekly.

Oronde Gadsden | LAC (at TEN)

Every year, we see a handful of players go from nothing to an impactful role. Usually, it’s injury-related, but that’s not always the case, and it seems like the Chargers have just sort of stumbled upon a difference maker with Oronde Gadsden.

After not playing in either of the first two games, his role in this pass-heavy offense has taken off, and he’s now run 110 routes over the past three weeks, a role that ranks up there with any of the well-compensated TEs in the league.

On Thursday night, he became the first player at the position this season with 65+ receiving yards in three straight games and got there in an extremely efficient manner (19 catches on 22 targets).

Neither the volume nor the catch rate projects as the most sustainable stats on the board for a player in an offense with three very viable receivers, not to mention that there have been an average of 55 total points scored across those games, a scoring environment that is not likely to stick.

That said, he’s an athletic prospect who plays with a franchise QB in an offense that prefers to pass. That’s all it takes to lock him into the TE1 range and, given his success, I see no reason why Jim Harbaugh would tweak his role any time soon.

Pat Freiermuth | PIT (vs IND)

You’re not going to believe this, but Pat Freiermuth’s 5-11-2 stat line from Week 7 against the Bengals wasn’t sustainable.

Instead, he gave us under 35 receiving yards and zero scores for the sixth time in seven games as he continues to split a low-volume role three ways (Darnell Washington and Jonnu Smith).

Freiermuth is a name you know, and it’s popular to stream tight ends on underdogs with the thought being that the passing script gives them a bump over the others in that tier.

The strategy there is sound, but this Pittsburgh TE room isn’t one I’m ever going to land on. It’s a parlay when most situations, even at the streaming level, don’t require you to take on such risk. Not only do you need to nail the Steelers as the TE streaming team of the week, but you also have to tell me then which one does the heavy lifting.

Good luck with that. I’d rather go the AJ Pierzynski route. Or, if we are talking underdogs getting a game script bump, Okonkwo comes out ranked ahead of all of the Steelers, and I don’t even think he’s a great play.

Sam LaPorta | DET (vs MIN)

Sam LaPorta has been the definition of boom/bust, and that’s irritating, but at tight end, those big weeks are more helpful than the down ones are hindering.

• Three top-5 finishes
• Four finishes outside of the top 20

In the final week of last season, these two teams faced off, and LaPorta led all players with seven receptions. The catch with Detroit is that they can kill you in any variety of ways, but with Jameson Williams being treated as the king of cardio, I like his target floor enough to start him with confidence across the board this week.

T.J. Hockenson | MIN (at DET)

With each passing dud, the concerns grow.

T.J. Hockenson hasn’t reached 50 receiving yards in a game this season, hasn’t scored in over a month, and isn’t running downfield.

In essence, he’s checking zero boxes, and if his resume weren’t what it is, you probably would have cut bait weeks ago.

I’m holding for two more weeks. I don’t believe in rostering multiple tight ends, so by “holding,” I’m essentially saying you can get away with starting him, a concept that is uncomfortable at best.

Why? It’s simple. He’s on the field a ton (81.3% of snaps, more than six percentage points above his career rate), a change under center is coming, and the Vikings are going to have to be very aggressive to keep up with the Lions and Ravens.

If he were a receiver and struggling at this level, I would call you crazy for even considering keeping him rostered. But he’s not. The tight end position plays by different rules, and even if you view him as a streamer, wouldn’t you be interested in streaming a TE that is expected to be a part of a pass-centric script in the coming weeks?

Travis Kelce | KC (at BUF)

Kelce found his groove on Monday night, catching six of eight targets for a season-high 99 yards and a touchdown against the Commanders.

That stat line by itself isn’t too newsworthy; we’ve seen Kelce do this for years. I was impressed by him leading the team in receiving yards during a game in which Rashee Rice (nine catches on nine targets) couldn’t be stopped.

Rice is soaking up the extra short targets while Kelce (7.3 aDOT in both games since Rice returned) is living in that perfect short-to-middle area where his non-verbal communication connection with Patrick Mahomes can truly shine.

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The running backs weren’t involved in the passing game last week, and that might change over time, but I think we can feel good about this system sustaining two pass catchers each week, and it’s trending in Kelce’s direction over Xavier Worthy.

The ceiling isn’t elite, but I’d argue that we are looking at one of the five highest floors at a position that is close to impossible to feel good about outside of the elite.

Trey McBride | ARI (at DAL)

Trey McBride is elite, and if you wanted to tell me that he was the only Tier 1 option at the position for the final two months, I wouldn’t put up much of an argument.

Arizona’s star has three straight games with an end zone target, five straight as a top-8 finisher at the position (PPR), and nine straight with at least seven looks.

At the tight end position, any one of those factors would have my interest. If two of them were true, we are talking about a lineup lock. All four? All four lands put you atop the ranks and give you week-winning potential.

I probably didn’t need to list any of those trends to convince you to start him against a Cowboys defense that has allowed 30+ points in five of their past seven games, but it always helps to know just how good your guy is.

McBride entered the bye in great form and waltzes into the perfect spot. I say he sets a season high in yardage, but with the volume and the newfound touchdown equity, he’s got multiple paths to fantasy stardom.

In a battle of fantasy stars at the toughest position to fill, I like McBride to shine the brightest.

Tucker Kraft | GB (vs CAR)

The new PPR TE1 this season is coming off a monster Sunday night performance in which he turned 15.7 expected PPR points into 33.3 real-life points (7-143-2).

Jordan Love played as composed a game as I’ve seen from him this season, taking what he viewed as the safest option and letting his talented teammates do the work.

That’ll play!

Kraft averaged over nine yards post-catch for the fifth time in his past six games. While the pending return of Jayden Reed (timetable still TBD) could eat into some of those short targets (2.5 aDOT against the Steelers last week with five catches coming on balls thrown less than five yards downfield), he’s a fixture of this offense.

Tucker Kraft said on @wakeupbarstool that when players come from different teams they say how different it is in Green Bay’s locker room and how great of an atmosphere it is #GoPackGo pic.twitter.com/GtGZogc5so

— Hogg (@HoggNFL) October 29, 2025

Green Bay is going to rely on Josh Jacobs most weeks, but the presence of Kraft as a pseudo-running back with the ball in his hands makes them the rare conservative offense that can be explosive.

Combine that with Christian Watson looking awfully healthy, and it’s not hard to see this Packers offense being a top-5 unit for the next two months, a scoring atmosphere that would give Kraft a real shot at holding onto the TE crown.

Tyler Warren | IND (at PIT)

Tyler Warren’s production came in under expectations last week as he logged just his second single-digit PPR game of the season.

It means nothing moving forward.

This was (again) the Jonathan Taylor show, and with Pittman having a strong matchup against the Titans — what little volume there was to be had through the air — the impressive rookie simply wasn’t needed for Indy to beat the brakes off of Tennessee.

If we are going to preach the importance of being on a strong offense, we can’t then complain when the offense is too good and coast for the final quarter.

I entered this week with Warren and McBride as my Tier 1 options at the position for the remainder of the season, and I’m not pivoting from that. He’s caught 74% of his targets this season and is averaging nearly 10 yards per target.

You’re lucky to have Warren on your roster: don’t forget that.

Zach Ertz | WAS (vs SEA)

Zach Ertz isn’t exciting, but three straight with 6+ targets is enough to put you on our radar at least.

I’m rarely going to rank him as a top-10 tight end (9.1 yards per catch this season and a spotty track record of scoring), but I don’t think the floor is as low as most in the streamer tier.

If you have a solid team and just want a warm body at tight end, I think this is the profile you’re looking for. If you need a difference-maker, I’d continue to throw darts elsewhere.

Evaluating player performance is one thing, but the ability to be honest about how your specific team is going to succeed is another — and, at times, the more important part of the process.