Kyle Soppe’s Fantasy Football Week 15 Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em: Playoff Edition

This game of ours is one of very little separation, and that makes every decision critical. As much as I’d love to help each of you with your specific fantasy football questions (I’ll try — @KyleSoppePFN), that’s a big ask.

What I can give you, every single week, are my takes. My statistical-backed rankings are available, but you, the devoted fantasy manager, need more than simply a number next to a name. You need to know why I stand where I do, and that’s my goal with this novel.

If you have a question, hit me up on X, but my hope is that this extended piece will give you the insight you’re looking for without relying on me landing on your specific question before lineups lock.

You don’t have to get ready if you stay ready — this piece is me staying ready to help you win the week!

Quarterbacks

Aaron Rodgers | PIT (vs MIA)

The glory days of Aaron Rodgers are obviously behind us, but I think you’re lying if you say that watching him drop the ball in the bucket a few times on Sunday in the upset win over the Ravens didn’t give you a nice feeling.

On his way to 284 passing yards, his first with 250+ this season, Rodgers was a perfect four-of-four on balls thrown 20+ yards downfield. That may not sound like much, but if you’ve watched any amount of Steelers football this season, you understand.

• Weeks 1-13: 7-of-29 when throwing 20+ yards downfield

This is too late in the season to mean anything. I guess you could leverage this performance to give you a little more confidence in DK Metcalf for the final few weeks, but Rodgers himself isn’t a viable option (his last multi-pass TD game came in Week 8).

The fantasy point total looks better than you’d expect given the pass line because Rodgers recorded his first rushing score since leaving the land of cheese back in 2022. If you had the stones to play him in a DFS situation, hat tip to you, but the nice box score is nothing but a flash in the pan.

Bo Nix | DEN (vs GB)

This is the old less-is-more routine, and with it working for the Broncos, what motivation do they have to put more on the plate of their second-year QB?

Bo Nix has one touchdown over his past three games, as Denver looks to minimize his risk. It’s hard to average under seven yards per competition against a Raiders defense that struggles to tackle, but with quick/predictable throws, that was the case on Sunday.

I think the offense they are running has staying power, and I’m more sold on it now than I was a month ago. Nix completed 11-of-12 passes against the blitz last week, continuing a growth pattern that is optimal for team success.

Denver’s team success doesn’t require our fantasy mouths to be fed, and in a tough matchup where Green Bay can create chaos without pulling from their second level, Nix isn’t in the QB1 conversation this week.

Brock Purdy | SF (vs TEN)

Brock Purdy has 14 completions to his teammates 15+ yards down the field this season, and seven to players wearing a different colored jersey.

We had become accustomed to him being one of the more efficient QBs in the league, but that ship seems to have sailed. He hasn’t thrown for more than 200 yards in any of his three starts back from injury, and while he ran for a score in Cleveland before the bye, 43 rushing yards across five starts isn’t exactly moving the needle.

I still want to believe in this system and the skill around Purdy, but at this point, I need a proof-of-concept before putting my season in his hands. Next up is the Colts on Monday night, followed by a home game against the Bears. I’m sitting Purdy this week, but if he can show improvement coming off the bye, there’s a world in which he hits his fantasy stride when we need him most.

But he’s lost the benefit of the doubt.

Bryce Young | CAR (at NO)

Bryce Young threw three touchdown passes (two on fourth downs) against the Rams in Week 13, his fourth game with a TD hat trick through the air this season.

We love that, but it’s impossible to overlook the floor when we are talking about the highest scoring position in our game. Those three-touchdown efforts have been more than offset by seven games with one or fewer TD tosses, and the rushing production isn’t nearly consistent enough to put him anywhere close to our radar in one-QB formats.

The progression here is slow. Young looked better last year than his rookie season, and I think there have been strides taken this year, but not nearly enough in this era of highly consistent signal callers.

There is talent on this roster, and that’ll keep Young on the QB2 radar (this week, the rest of this season, and next season), but that’s the extent of my interest in the 24-year-old.

C.J. Stroud | HOU (vs ARI)

In a similar vein to Nix with Denver, C.J. Stroud isn’t being asked to do fantasy-friendly things as Houston makes their move.

I thought he made every play he needed to on Sunday night against the Chiefs. He got rid of the ball when nothing was there, extended plays to give his receivers a chance, and avoided the back-breaking error.

By all accounts, the Texans were thrilled with the performance their QB put on. Fantasy managers? Not even remotely interested in a sub-50% completion effort that totaled just 203 yards (99 on two big Nico Collins plays early) and one touchdown with essentially no rushing equity.

They closed out the reigning AFC champs with their QB completing three passes in the second half. For fantasy, I want my desires to match up with what the team needs, and that couldn’t be less true in Houston. This matchup doesn’t scare me, and if Jacoby Brissett can put a few points on the board, maybe Stroud is pushed to need his fourth multi-pass TD game of the season, but the floor is more impactful than the ceiling at this point, and that has me streaming elsewhere if possible.

Caleb Williams | CHI (vs CLE)

The on-field development is clear, and I don’t doubt that it’ll bear fantasy fruit with time, but I’m not sold that we see it this week (or next, for that matter in a rematch with the Packers.

Caleb Williams has completed 17-of-27 third-down passes over the past three weeks with three touchdowns and zero interceptions. His athleticism is on display weekly, and while it can look reckless if you’re new to watching him play, he’s been playing that way for his entire life and has a contained chaos feel to him (the INT last week was more in a spot of required aggression than any issue with Williams directly).

I love that fantasy profile. His 26-yard completion down the right sideline to Cole Kmet last week was a snapshot of what is possible: he was running with his hair on first and put perfect touch on a precise throw.

His best days are in the future. He’s as athletic as you’ll see a QB without a 10-yard run in three straight games. He also doesn’t have a 30+ yard completion in five consecutive contests.

The upside is inside of him, and Ben Johnson will unlock it with time, but a cold spot against the Browns isn’t really the spot to bank on it.

Only one QB (MVP favorite Drake Maye) has reached 14.5 fantasy points against the Browns since their Week 9 bye, and Williams would do well to reach that threshold. I’ve got him sitting just outside of my top 15 this week, putting him outside of the QB1 conversation (ranking behind Marcus Mariota and Trevor Lawrence).

Cameron Ward | TEN (at SF)

Cam Ward posted the first multi-TD pass game of his career and earned the victory over draftmate Shedeur Sanders on Sunday, but he wasn’t clean (he threw an interception, something he didn’t do in November) and averaged just 4.2 yards per pass.

The scripted first drive was impressive against a strong defense (4-for-4 for 48 yards and a 14-yard touchdown to fellow rookie Elic Ayoumanor), but he managed just 69 passing yards after that possession, finishing shy of 200 yards for the fourth time in five games.

His Titans won the game, but Sanders looked like the QB closer to holding fantasy relevance.

Dak Prescott | DAL (vs MIN)

CeeDee Lamb is coming off a concussion, and that needs to be monitored.

Dak Prescott’s WR1 was dominating Detroit before the injury, and that helped fuel a third straight game with 320+ passing yards. I think the volume will probably be there, no matter the status of Lamb (23+ completions in five straight), but the scoring equity dips, and we know the type of low floor that comes into play for a QB like this (five games with 0-1 TD passes).

I’ve got Prescott on the fringe of QB1 status, and that’s assuming we get a reasonable version of Lamb in this offense. He’s not a terrible play, but I’m not making excuses to roster him. Both pocket passers in the Lions/Rams game rank higher for me, and the Sam Darnold case is easy to make if he has his standout WR and Prescott doesn’t.

Daniel Jones | IND (at SEA)

Daniel Jones was the story of the first half of the fantasy season, but he entered Week 14 having come upon tough production times, with his last finish better than QB12 coming in Week 8.

Even with him trending in the wrong direction, he was on the fringes of our interest due to the consistency of the offense (multiple TD passes in Weeks 12-13 despite struggling). This profile is versatile, and while the rushing was more misses than hits of late, it was still another avenue for him to give us points.

That all ended in the second quarter with an Achilles tendon injury. If you play in a deeper league and were relying on Jones, this leaves you in a tough spot. Riley Leonard is his replacement, but that’s not worth the risk.

READ MORE: Colts’ Handling of Daniel Jones Dubbed ‘Organizational Malpractice’ After QB’s Season-Ending Injury

Tua Tagovailoa gets the Steelers this week in Pittsburgh, and that’s not great, but home meetings with the Bengals and Bucs present themselves after that.

On the other side of this coin, the Jaguars D/ST becomes more appealing. They get the Colts again in Week 17 in addition to the favorable home game this weekend against the Jets.

Drake Maye | NE (vs BUF)

That’s now 10 straight games in which Drake Maye has averaged over eight yards per pass, allowing him to overcome some underwhelming recent rushing numbers (zero rushing scores since September and 13.8 rushing yards per game over his past five).

In those five games, his weekly finish ceiling has been QB9, but he’s been worse than QB13 just once since the opener, and that’s been what has made him valuable in our game. In theory, if you’re going to get a ceiling effort from the second-year QB, this would be it.

He played one full game against Buffalo last season: multiple passing scores and 42 opportunities (pass-plus-rush attempts). Something like that could well be in the cards this week, and that has me ranking him as a very solid Tier 2 QB: you should trust him with your fantasy fate on the line.

Geno Smith | LV (at PHI)

If this is the end of Geno Smith’s career as a starting QB, it’s been a bumpy ride.

His foot injury entering Week 14 wasn’t enough to be mentioned on the final injury report. Still, he banged up his shoulder during the loss to Denver and is currently iffy moving forward.

It shouldn’t matter to you.

You’re playing Brock Bowers regardless of the QB play, and that’s not going to change. Smith has just two games with multiple passing scores since September and has been sacked more than three times per touchdown toss this season.

Things need to change in Vegas sooner rather than later if we are going to get value out of their two-star players, and maybe we get a peek into what is possible moving forward at the end of 2025.

J.J. McCarthy | MIN (at DAL)

J.J. McCarthy didn’t look overwhelmed last week against the Commanders, and that was great to see. The first-year starter showed the pose that we saw in the fourth quarter of the season opener for extended stretches, completing 16-of-23 passes with three touchdowns and no interceptions. He took the four sacks rather than putting the ball in harm’s way, a minor sign of the kind of growth we want to see.

He’s still a long way away from mattering for fantasy, but games like this open up a sliver of hope for his receivers the rest of the way.

He was perfect on the first drive, and as he gets more comfortable with Kevin O’Connell’s scripts, maybe we see his efficiency bleed from the first drive into the entire first half, and eventually the entire game.

Let’s not put the horse before the carriage. This was a great matchup at home. This Dallas defense has had a mini-bye to rest and watch, making this a nice test. I don’t envision McCarthy being a fantasy asset in any sense for the rest of this season, but he can earn some 2026 equity if he can turn in a few average outings to close 2025.

Jacoby Brissett | ARI (at HOU)

There are no pictures in the stat sheet, so I don’t care that Jacoby Brissett has scored 65.5% of his points since Week 10 with the Cardinals down by double digits.

Doesn’t matter.

He’s run for over 15 yards in three straight, thrown 40+ passes in five straight, and has multiple TDs in seven of his last eight.

The rubber is at risk of meeting the road against this Texans team, however, and that’s why he sits outside of my top 15 at the position. The defense is as good as any in the league (four of the past five QBs have failed to get to 13.5 points, a run that includes both Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes), but that’s not what has me most worried.

It’s a factor, don’t get me wrong, but I’m not sure this offense has the potential to put Arizona in such a bind where they are forced to keep up. If the Texans dominate this game, it’s a 23-13 sort of deal where Arizona doesn’t get nearly the play volume they’ve benefited from over the past month.

If the Cardinals are more balanced and playing with caution, Brissett’s 40 attempts crash to 30, and his superpower is negated.

I’d rather play Caleb Williams in a tough spot this week against the Browns, and, to be honest, I’d sign up for C.J. Stroud on the other side of this game before I pencil in Brissett for a playoff matchup.

Jalen Hurts | PHI (vs LV)

Losing four fantasy points on a play is unheard of, but it’s not the first unique season in this Eagles season, and it probably won’t be the last.

As a passer, I was encouraged by Jalen Hurts funneling 81.6% of his targets to his three primary weapons (AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert); he just didn’t get the type of support he needed in the biggest spots.

We know the Tush Push equity is there for Hurts, and that’s here to stay (until next season), but without a 35-yard game on the ground since September, there’s extra fantasy pressure being put on him as a passer.

For the record, I thought Brown and Smith both looked engaged, and that’s a big part of why I think you’re starting Hurts this week. Well, that and the matchup. The Raiders are the seventh-worst defense in terms of goal-to-go efficiency and points per drive. They allow points on 42.2% of their drives, and if there’s a spot for the Birds to hit 30 points for the first time since their bye and second time since September, this is it.

It’s rarely pretty, but Hurts is my QB3 for Week 15.

Jared Goff | DET (at LAR)

How can you not love when these two teams meet?

Dueling QB revenge games, playoff seeding on the line, head coaches who love to play 4-D chess. This game could have it all!

Jared Goff has thrown for 250+ yards in six straight games and is coming off his eighth instance in which he’s completed at least 70% of his passes. Starting a QB without rush equity is scary in 2025, but both signal callers in this game are exceptions in that matter, and if they are pushing on another, this could turn into a fantasy bonanza in short order.

It needs to be noted that Goff hasn’t managed 12 fantasy points in either of his games against the Rams. An extended work week with a version of Amon-Ra St. Brown that we weren’t sure we’d be getting has Goff grading well for me, even in a tough matchup.

I prefer Matthew Stafford to Goff if we are looking at this game alone, but both are top-12 QBs that I’d be fine with playing with my season on the line.

Jaxson Dart | NYG (vs WAS)

Jaxson Dart returned from the concussion in Week 13, and while he showed no signs of fear, the 13.6-point performance was his worst as a starter (139 passing yards with a touchdown, 20 rushing yards).

That matchup (in New England) was a tough spot, and it was always going to be. Balance was going to be a problem, and with their ears pinned back, this was target practice more than anything. In his first start back, just 14.7% of his fantasy points came with his legs, a dramatic fall from the 43.5% rate he posted in his seven starts prior.

Are those limitations here to stay after he got lit up on the sideline for one of his four rush attempts? Even if you don’t believe that the Giants are going to curtail his game long-term, the 2-11 version of this team isn’t motivated to put their franchise signal caller in harm’s way.

The Commanders’ defense does not scare me in the least, and that opens up a nice upside projection for Dart. Still, if we are talking about what is most likely to happen, I think it’s that he falls outside of the top 10 at the position in a week where everyone is in action, most of them with more to gain.

Jayden Daniels | WAS (at NYG)

Jayden Daniels left Sunday’s blowout loss with a non-throwing elbow injury. Still, we had seen enough before the early departure (nine-of-20 for 78 yards and an interception) to know that this wasn’t set to be a good day at the office against the aggressive Vikings.

Should he take another snap this season?

My answer would be no, but I’m not making that call. I’d be surprised if he suited up this week, and my ranking of him down the stretch of 2025 will entirely hinge on just how healthy he appears to be.

In the long term, I still think we are looking at a player with Tier 1 potential, even if this season hasn’t done much to reinforce that view. He’ll be an interesting ADP dropper to track in August: I could see him projecting well at cost if there is lasting concern for his playing style and an increased desire to wait on the position after some of the big names have struggled to pay off their draft day price tags.

Joe Burrow | CIN (vs BAL)

We’ve got the Joe Burrow that we drafted back in August alive and well for the fantasy playoffs.

It’s glorious.

He had no issues with the elements last week in Upstate New York: six of seven on the first drive and four touchdowns for the day.

He had the bad Pick-6 that flipped the game in the fourth quarter, but for fantasy purposes, a turnover that ramps up the aggression the rest of the game isn’t the end of the world.

Burrow has cleared 260 yards through the air in both of his starts back and seems to be moving within the pocket without limitations. Most importantly, he’s not taking hits (two sacks on 82 dropbacks).

He could be without Tee Higgins this week, and that hurts after the big Week 14 performance, but as long as he’s playing in support of this porous defense, fantasy greatness is going to be demanded of him to keep Cincy competitive.

Lock him in.

Jordan Love | GB (at DEN)

Would you blindly back a “hot” three-point shooter?

Without any context, I hope not.

Jordan Love is a good quarterback and might well be enough to get the Packers where they want to go, but seven scores on 55 attempts over the past two weeks is a heater that isn’t going to be sustained for any extended period of time.

He put himself in a tough spot in the first drive of the win over the Bears, taking a sack to put Green Bay behind the chains and then throwing a pick as he tried to make up for the first mistake. That was his first INT in over a month: he’s largely shown growth on that front this season, and that’s what the team wants.

This is a Josh Jacobs-based offense that can pass. That’s probably optimal for on-field success, but for us, it’s prohibitive. Love has just four top-10 finishes this season and has failed to clear 30 pass attempts in each of his past four games. He needs the type of unsustainable efficiency we’ve seen of late just to threaten lineups, and this matchup is pretty clearly an issue to sustaining success at a league-average level, never mind the crazy recent rates.

Denver Defensive Rankings

• Touchdown Pass Rate: 1st
• Completion Percentage: 3rd
• Yards Per Pass: 4th
• Blitz Rate: 6th
• Pressure rate: 7th

I’m not comfortable starting Love anywhere this week, but let me be clear: DO NOT drop him. The Packers draw the Bears and Ravens in Weeks 16-17, matchups I anticipate having a top-8 grade for Love in.

Josh Allen | BUF (at NE)

I don’t know what to say about Josh Allen anymore.

The Bengals bottled him up in the first half on Sunday (96 pass yards and -1 rushing yard, one total touchdown), but what’s understood doesn’t have to be explained … he finishes with 251 passing yards, 78 on the ground, and four scores.

He’s a bull in a china shop running the ball (rush TD in consecutive games and nine over his past seven) while also a surgeon in the pocket (career pace in both CMP% and YPA).

I don’t know what would happen if this team found a WR1 for him to feature. As it is, he had seven teammates with multiple targets over the weekend and saw a pair of tight ends account for the majority of his passing yards.

The Pats kept Allen in check in Week 16 last season (5.3 yards per pass with “only” 30 rushing yards on six attempts), and maybe they are more equipped to do so by way of familiarity, but there isn’t a QB I’d rather go into battle with this week.

For those keeping track, yes, my top two QBs this week are playing each other.

Justin Herbert | LAC (at KC)

Justin Herbert doesn’t know how to go half speed, and that’s why he’s always on our radar. Less than a week after getting surgery on his non-throwing left hand, he took seven sacks and ran 10 times to get his team a big win over the Eagles on Monday night.

There are some hold-your-breath moments, and a game with 12 completions is never going to land him inside the top 12 at the position, but he certainly wasn’t scared.

All of his passing production essentially came on dumpoffs to running backs: Kimani Vidal picked up 60 yards on a little crossing route, and Omarion Hampton scored their only touchdown of the night on a nice design in close.

If there’s a week to go this direction, it’s next in Dallas. The Chiefs have held seven of their past nine opponents under their season average in QB PPG, and I expect that trend to reach eight of 10.

Herbert is a gamer, and maybe he can eliminate the big bad Chiefs this week. That’s possible, but I find it unlikely that he does it with a big fantasy total next to his name.

Lamar Jackson | BAL (at CIN)

October 30th.

What we’ve come to love about Lamar Jackson as a fantasy asset recently is his development as a passer. He came into the league with generational athleticism, and that was always going to be a calling card. But he molded himself into an elite weapon from inside the pocket, making him nearly impossible to cover.

Well, October 30th was the date of his last TD pass from the pocket. He had five deep touchdown passes in September and has just one since. It’s a bit of a chicken/egg thing when it comes to his struggles through the air and the lack of big play equity with his legs (he doesn’t have a 20-yard run this season), but I don’t really care what is to blame for these monumental fantasy flops.

Figure it out, or your team is going home early.

I liked seeing the majority of his targets last week funnel to either Zay Flowers or Isaiah Likely, so that’s a start, but we need more, and we need it in a hurry. I thought there were glimpses of the vintage version last week, and in facing the third-worst defense against fantasy QBs, that’s enough to land inside of my top 10.

We can address what to make of Jackson in Weeks 16-17 (vs. NE, at GB) when we get there, but those tough spots won’t matter if he continues to underwhelm and your team gets bounced this week.

I’m playing him over all of the hotter options that you may have picked up at some point during this season. Fingers crossed!

Marcus Mariota | WAS (at NYG)

It’s easy to forget that Marcus Mariota has been a top-12 QB in each of his past three, but that’s exactly why I’m here!

He ran for 126 yards across those games (opponents: Lions, Dolphins, and Broncos) and hit for a 35+ yard play with either his legs or his arm in each of them. The opposing starting QB has surpassed his season average in terms of fantasy points in six of their past seven games, a trend that, if sustained, puts Mariota in the low-end QB1 discussion, even without Zach Ertz.

I’ve got him as my QB13 this week and would advise going this direction if you’re currently betting on Caleb Williams (vs. CLE), Justin Herbert (at KC), or Jordan Love (at DEN).

Matthew Stafford | LAR (vs DET)

He’s back; that didn’t take long.

After the Panthers tied him in knots, Matthew Stafford was back to his efficient ways on Sunday in the desert, burning the Cardinals for 281 yards and three scores on his 22 completions. That gives him seven straight with multiple touchdown passes and seven 3+ TD and 0 INT efforts in his last 10.

Week 14 was the seventh time this season that he averaged north of eight yards per pass, and that’s exactly what it takes to produce QB1 numbers with this profile. He’s a top-5 option at the position for me against a defense that has allowed 18+ QB points in three straight and in five of six following their Week 8 bye.

Patrick Mahomes | KC (vs LAC)

The six dropped passes last week against the Texans obviously didn’t help the cause, but this version of Patrick Mahomes isn’t the consistent threat that we’ve seen in the past.

Yes, he’s reached 30 rushing yards in three straight and eight times this season, a production path that should have him posting monster fantasy numbers on a regular basis.

But, with multiple TD passes in just one of his past five games, the ceiling instances have been largely absent during the second half of the fantasy season.

If we’ve learned anything from this dynastic era in Kansas City, it’s that Andy Reid is happy to have his fate in the hands of #15. They need to win out even to have a prayer at the playoffs, so another game with 48+ opportunities (pass + rush attempts), a total he’s hit three of his past four games, is very much in play, if not expected.

If you’ve qualified for the playoffs with Mahomes, I think you’re sticking with him, even after the primetime dud. This matchup isn’t great, but at least it’s a familiar opponent that is on a short week. I’ve got the former MVP ranked as my QB9 this week.

Philip Rivers | IND (at SEA)

It’s a cute story, but if he starts, this isn’t a Joe Flacco situation in the making.

They just beat up a pocket-locked Kirk Cousins, and we saw them do the same thing earlier in the year to Aaron Rodgers and, more recently, to Matthew Stafford.

This is a defense with Super Bowl aspirations playing against, potentially, a QB whose last game featured Jack Doyle leading his team in catches and Cole Beasley leading the opposition.

Rivers is a professional and might be their best bet this week, but that doesn’t mean you drop everything and consider him for even a moment this week.

For those Super Flexers out there, there are 70 flex players I’d rank ahead of Rivers, so I hope that you have other options.

Sam Darnold | SEA (vs IND)

Sam Darnold is going to do what is asked of him and is likely to do it at a high level.

A week ago, I had a strong projection on him for this game because I thought the Colts had a chance to push the Seahawks a bit, but with the rash of QB injuries in Indy, that’s less likely, thus positioning Darnold for another low-volume game.

He can get there in such spots (twice since November has he had 3+ TD passes on no more than 30 passes), but a low attempt count naturally carries downsides. He’s QB17 this season among the quarterbacks that will start this week, and that’s where I have him slotted for Week 15.

Shedeur Sanders | CLE (at CHI)

He wasn’t perfect, but putting up counting numbers in a spot where you’re supposed to put up counting numbers is certainly a good start.

Shedeur Sanders threw for 364 yards and three scores against the Titans on Sunday (first two career starts, total: 358 yards and two touchdowns), adding a highlight seven-yard run that showcased his spatial awareness and competitive fire.

All great things. Also encouraging was the touch shown on the one-yard TD pass to David Njoku in the second quarter and his numbers against the blitz, a scheme he’s likely to see with regularity until he beats it consistently (5-of-8 for 59 yards and two touchdowns).

I’m not sold that there is value to chase on the ground, and I’m not sure the surrounding talent is enough to make him an option even in 2026 for our purposes. That said, I’m not here to knock progress, and he certainly looked more comfortable on Sunday than we’ve seen anyone at the position wearing this uniform in 2025.

Trevor Lawrence | JAX (vs NYJ)

This is an interesting matchup that features two sides that feel a bit underappreciated.

The Jets defense has been better against QBs than you might assume (forget a low-volume Tua Tagovailoa last week, but in the past month, they’ve held Lamar Jackson and Drake Maye in check), and Trevor Lawrence has worked himself closer to the version of him that we’ve been begging to see.

Jakobi Meyers debuted for this team in Week 10, and Lawrence’s aDOT has increased every week since. He’s averaged north of eight yards per pass in three straight, and even more impressive than the raw numbers is the confidence that is allowing the best version of himself to come out.

Lawrence is scrambling and throwing with accuracy, an asset we believed would be his calling card coming out of school. He’s cleared 15 rushing yards in three straight, and if the Meyers effect is unlocking that portion of this profile, then my QB14 ranking is going to prove to be too conservative this week.

Enjoy it this week, but I’d be careful about getting too excited: a trip to Denver looms in Week 16

Tua Tagovailoa | MIA (at PIT)

“Game manager” gets mentioned in a negative light, but if it’s keeping you in those goofy “in the hunt” playoff graphics, who in the building is going to complain?

The ‘Fins have won four straight, and Tua Tagovailoa hasn’t cleared 15 completions or 23 attempts in any of them. It doesn’t sound like the De’Von Achane (ribs) injury is anything to fear, and I’m not the least bit scared of the Steelers scoring at such a level that Miami is pressed into an aggressive scheme.

The Dolphins don’t want Tagovailoa to dictate outcomes and I don’t think he’ll be asked to do so this week.

Tyler Shough | NO (vs CAR)

I’m not sure if Tyler Shough is the future of the position in New Orleans, but this kid plays how I think all of us assume we would if we were physically gifted enough to be in such a position. He scraps, grinds, and dives.

He was very clearly one of those kids who was told that if his jersey wasn’t dirty after a game, he didn’t play hard enough.

Shough isn’t ready for the speed of the pro game as a passer (five TDs and five INTs on his 184 attempts this season), but with 20 rush attempts over the past three weeks and multiple TD passes in his first meeting with the Panthers, there’s a non-zero chance for him to be a top-15 option at the position.

I don’t have him ranked as such, but he is certainly in the same tier as bigger names in tough spots (Jacoby Brissett, Justin Herbert, and both QBs in Packers/Broncos) for Week 15. If you need to roll the dice and/or want some correlation on your Chris Olave investment in an effort to pull off an upset, a plug-and-play option is there.

Running Backs

Aaron Jones Sr. | MIN (at DAL)

Aaron Jones hurt his shoulder in Week 13, but wasn’t on the final injury report, and the Vikings made it clear that he is the back they prefer.

The veteran RB out-snapped Jordan Mason, 7-3, in the first quarter, and looked about as good as we’ve seen him this season with a 14-for-76 performance in the shutout win over the Commanders.

Last week carried more good than bad, and the Vikes will need to play some defense with their offense in this game, but there are still too many red flags to consider him anything more than a marginal flex option.

Mason held the edge in red zone snaps on Sunday, and Jones failed to catch a pass. This offense is a disaster right now, and that makes for a low floor, even if we feel decent about the role. What you got last week is, in my opinion, on the plus side of projectable. That is, the carry count and efficiency were higher than expected, and that means that there’s more room for regression than building on a reasonable day at the office.

Jones is unlikely to lose you your wee,k and there’s value in that, but he’s just as unlikely to post a big number and give you a serious advantage over the competition.

Alvin Kamara | NO (vs CAR)

Alvin Kamara missed a second straight game with this knee/ankle injury, and there’s little reason to think that the 30-year-old is going to return in a meaningful way for fantasy managers.

The veteran back is averaging just 3.6 yards per carry this season and hasn’t earned more than three targets in a game since the first half of October. The one-time fantasy difference maker has been unable to return any value for the majority of the season, and a potentially compromised version of him is unlikely to reverse that trend.

New Orleans is coming off a nice upset win behind a young nucleus: I’m anticipating that they lean into that over the final month of the season, and that means that Kamara, even if deemed healthy enough to play, won’t project for enough work as part of a well-below-average offense to crack lineups.

Ashton Jeanty | LV (at PHI)

Over the past three weeks, Ashton Jeanty has averaged 0.72 inches per carry before first contact with one of his 42 attempts, gaining 10+ yards.

That’s a problem.

That’s a sign of roster construction malpractice, but that’s more of an offseason topic.

The role is there, and with 38 targets over his past six games, the acknowledgment of his versatility is too. There’s just a lack of offensive infrastructure, and we are seeing just how much value that has in our game.

Jeanty remains a viable starter because he won’t be scripted out of this game, and we just saw the Eagles get beat up by the Chargers’ RB tandem. With Philadelphia playing an overtime game on Monday night, there’s some fatigue potential to at least consider, but that’s getting a little cute for me.

Jeanty is a fine RB2, and I don’t think the ceiling is all that high, not the type of analysis I thought I’d be giving for a player with this level of pedigree and draft capital.

Bam Knight | ARI (at HOU)

Didn’t we just see this?

Bam Knight walked into a tough Week 14 matchup (vs. Rams), poised for plenty of work with Emari Demercado (ankle) and Trey Benson (knee) both out.

The Cards wasted little time cutting bait on the run game and took their chances with Jacoby Brissett flinging the ball all over the yard. It didn’t work; they lost by 28, but that was the approach.

This week could be awfully similar, but without the upside of six targets for Knight because the Texans’ offense can’t present game pressure in quite the same way. At 3.3 yards per carry this season (103 touches this season and his long gain is just 20 yards), there’s not enough quality or quantity in this profile for me to give it a second look with my fantasy season hanging in the balance.

Bhayshul Tuten | JAX (vs NYJ)

Bhayshul Tuten has five touchdowns on his resume this season and might well be an asset in this league with time.

That time, however, is not now. Not in terms of starting for your fantasy team during the playoffs, at least. The rookie was on the field for nine snaps in the convincing victory over the Colts, and seven of them came on special teams.

I don’t have Travis Etienne in the tier of running back that is so valuable that he needs to be handcuffed, so there’s not a real path to me stashing Tuten in any capacity for the final few weeks.

Blake Corum | LAR (vs DET)

I wish I could get there with Blake Corum. He continues to look great in the work he is given, and he’s clearly a part of the plan.

First Quarter RB Details at ARI

• Corum: 6 carries for 48 yards and a TD (long run: 18 yards)
• Kyren Williams: 3 carries for 30 yards (long run: 18 yards)

But Kyren Williams isn’t going away, and Corum is, at best, fourth in terms of TD equity on this offense. That means that above-average volume is a long shot, and chasing a score is a poor percentage play.

His 209 yards on 19 carries over the past two weeks are great to see as he enters his third season in 2026: for 2025, I still think he’s fighting an uphill battle in most roster situations.

Brashard Smith | KC (vs LAC)

If the Chiefs were to get mathematically eliminated from the postseason, there’s a world in which Brashard Smith is a star over the final few weeks, but that’s not the case right now. The rookie has just seven touches over the past month, and that’s obviously not enough work to be in the flex conversation.

If you have a bye this week or have a locked-in starting lineup, I don’t mind the idea of stashing with the hopes that KC turns his way should the season be over.

Breece Hall | NYJ (at JAX)

If you have to play Breece Hall, you have to play him.

I wish I could spin a statistical story to make you feel good about it, but there’s nothing here outside of betting on a strong talent who projects for north of 15 touches.

We’ve seen rushing attempts be empty calories in four straight games (his longest rush over the past month is 11 yards), but with 201 attempts and 40 targets this year, I’d have a hard time flexing a DK Metcalf type over him this week.

Hall sits outside my top 20 at the position, but I can’t knock him out of the top 25 given his role.

Chase Brown | CIN (vs BAL)

It took a minute, but this is the Chase Brown you signed up for back in August, and he should be considered a reliable asset for the remainder of this season.

The Bengals executed a masterpiece of a first drive in Buffalo last week, and it was capped with a Brown touchdown. Later, he showcased the elite versatility that we fell in love with last season, snaring a comeback pass and just barely crossing the goal line for his second score of the afternoon.

He averaged 5.2 yards per carry two weeks ago in this matchup and added seven receptions for good measure. I’m not sure you can count on both repeating, but either would be enough. Brown is the clear RB1 in this offense, and with 8.5+ PPR points as a pass catcher in five of his past six, there’s a chance he’s the second most dangerous Cincinnati receiving option in what could be a fantasy bonanza on Sunday.

Chris Rodriguez Jr. | WAS (at NYG)

Are you looking for a reason to watch the Commanders?

I wouldn’t be.

Outside of that, I can’t imagine why you’d want to leave your fantasy fate in the hands of a running back in this offense.

Commanders Committee, Week 14

• Chris Rodriguez: 40.8% snaps, 10 touches (two in the red zone)
• Jeremy McNichols: 28.6% snaps, 1 touch (zero in the red zone)
• Jacory Croskey-Merritt: 10.2% snaps, 7 touches (one in the red zone)

C-Rod has only one game with over 12 carries this season and has four catches on his three-year NFL resume. At this limited volume, even if it’s in the “lead role” for this offense, he needs a touchdown to be viable, and I’m just not sold that this team gets much past 20 points in any week for the remainder of the season.

He’s hanging on for dear life to top 30 status at the position in my Week 15 rankings.

Christian McCaffrey | SF (vs TEN)

It’s pretty hard to run for eight touchdowns in a season where you’re picking up just 3.6 yards per carry, but that’s where we are with Christian McCaffrey.

He’s a special back that excels at making the most of the situation around him for fantasy purposes: this offensive line has given him no room to run, but it hasn’t stopped him from getting into the end zone lately (four rushing scores over his past three games).

Oh yeah, and then there’s the fact that he has 4+ targets in every game this season and caught 29 of his 33 targets in November.

The knock on CMC heading into the season was his health. Well, he’s healthy and fresh off a bye against one of the worst teams in the NFL: you’ve benefited all season for embracing the minor discount this summer, and this is as good a spot as you could ask for in the middle of December.

Chuba Hubbard | CAR (at NO)

Chuba Hubbard cleared 17 PPR points in Weeks 1-2, but from Weeks 3-12, he didn’t have a single double-digit performance.

So, of course, he hangs 20.4 points on the Rams in Week 13, a team that believes it has a Super Bowl-level defense.

The 35-yard touchdown on the first drive (a nice design that saw Bryce Young hit him with a quick swing pass timed up with TE motion to get a downhill blocker in front of him) did most of the damage. Still, Hubbard did get six of the first 10 RB carries for Carolina before the bye, and that was a change of pace from what we had seen prior.

Week 13 Participation Data

• Hubbard: 58.1% snaps, 15 routes, 19 touches (0 red zone)
  • Held a 13-2 snap edge on third down
• Rico Dowdle: 43.5% snaps, 6 routes, 20 touches (0 red zone)

Blip on the radar or serious concern?

It doesn’t matter. It would matter if we were in Week 7 and having this discussion with months of runway to benefit, but we are in win-now mode, and the fact that we can reasonably ask that question needs to rule both of these players out of your flex conversation.

You’ll be OK. Not counting on a Panthers running back is probably a good thing for your overall mental health.

D’Andre Swift | CHI (vs CLE)

I’m old enough to remember when D’Andre Swift was a highly efficient back with the Lions or even in his single season with the Eagles.

That’s not the version we currently have access to.

He gained yardage on all 13 of his carries against the Packers last week, and that was great to see, but for the second time in three weeks, he failed to pick up 10 yards on a single carry.

We know that he’s in a committee situation with a pounder in Kyle Monangai, something that not only limits his volume, but also his touchdown equity. He caught three passes over the weekend (two catches in total over his previous three games), but how much of that was the result of Rome Odunze being sidelined?

I do prefer him to Monangai by the slimmest of margins this week out of respect for this Browns stout run defense, but neither is a top 20 play for me.

David Montgomery | DET (at LAR)

David Montgomery has scored in consecutive games after scoring once in a six-game run.

That’s what he is these days, and while he’s at the higher end of TD-reliant players, he still carries the ultra-low floor that follows that profile.

Montgomery hasn’t cleared 10 touches in a game since early November, and with a lack of volume, naturally, comes a lack of scoring opportunities, even if you play in a high-powered offense.

Thursday night was the fourth time in two months that the veteran back didn’t get a red zone touch. I’m skeptical about counting on a player like this as it is, but if he needs to score from distance (35-yard TD against the Cowboys last week), the risk outweighs the reward.

This is a top-5 rush defense in terms of EPA, and it’s Montgomery, not Jahmyr Gibbs, that feels that the most. He’s averaging 4.7 yards per carry this season, but if you remove the 72-yarder against the Ravens back in September, that number drops to 4.1.

His carry count seems capped at eight, and if we give him his customary 2-3 targets, I think we are looking at 10 touches for 45 yards, with little scoring equity at best in a tough spot.

That’s not a stat line worthy of starting in most, if not all, formats.

De’Von Achane | MIA (at PIT)

Reports out of Miami suggest that De’Von Achane wanted to return last week, and that’s been backed up thus far, leading me to believe the ribs situation is a thing of the past.

Use that as your weekly reminder that these are built a little differently than we mere mortals are. Three years ago, I took a charge in a basketball game (called a block, but that’s an argument for another day), broke two ribs, and was sidelined for three months. I couldn’t sleep right, and breathing wasn’t exactly comfortable.

Achane gets dinged up and wants to return to the game.

All of that is to say that I’m weak and Achane should be viewed as he is every week: one of the five best in the game with slate-breaking upside every week. The Steelers slowed a predictable Derrick Henry last week, but James Cook and Chase Brown both cleared 18 PPR points against them thanks to the pressure they create, something that I very much expect Achane to replicate in this spot.

He might be in the 1.01 conversation this summer.

Derrick Henry | BAL (at CIN)

Derrick Henry is what Derrick Henry is, and if you roster him, you’re well aware.

The sneakiest part of his profile is that he’s caught a pass in six straight games. Now, those touches don’t always result in much, but we did see him rip off a 44-yard reception against these Bengals back on Thanksgiving: any avenue to more work for Henry is a-OK by his fantasy managers.

He has at least five red zone touches in three of his past four games, and that’s what you need to see in this matchup against the fifth-worst red zone unit in the league. You’re hoping to get 100 rushing yards or a touchdown in this critical game for the Ravens, understanding that there’s a better shot in this spot of you getting both than of you getting neither.

Devin Neal | NO (vs CAR)

You know how Brock Bowers is a cool name that just sort of fits how he plays?

I’m not exactly sure why, but Puka Nacua always did that for me, too: if you laid out how a player plays and asked me to match it up with his name, I think I would have nailed those two far before seeing either play.

I think the same is true for Devin Neal, but in a much less fun way.

The name is bland, and he just kind of falls forward. In his two games filling in for Alvin Kamara, 24 of his 33 carries have failed to gain more than four yards, and his versatility is limited.

I understand that he was an efficient runner during his time at Kansas (5.7 yards per carry over a 760-try sample size), and maybe he develops into a plus-runner at the NFL level with time, but we aren’t there yet.

Having said that, his 37 touches over those two weeks hold value, especially with this potentially being a competitive game. We saw Tyler Shough account for the touchdowns on the ground last week, and this is only an average red-zone defense, so there is certainly some scoring equity to consider in addition to the raw volume.

You picked up Neal off the waiver wire when Kamara went down, and flex value is a good return for such a move late in the season. I think you get another week of that, and while the upside is limited, a viable floor can work if the rest of your team can do the heavy lifting.

Devin Singletary | NYG (vs WAS)

It’s been forgotten by many because it was two weeks ago and came in an 18-point loss, but Devin Singletary ran hard in Week 13 against the Patriots.

Against arguably the best run defense in the league, he ran for 68 yards and a touchdown on 12 carries (102 total yards). His excellence was even more impactful in our world, as Tyrone Tracy struggled with 10 carries for 36 yards, with no attempt to gain more than nine yards.

Singletary earning three targets to Tracy’s one is even more noteworthy, as that was the spot in this offense where the expectation was for the second-year back to dominate.

The Commanders have a below-average run defense in terms of both yards per carry before and after contact to running backs this season. Singletary earned our confidence before the bye, and we knew he had access to valuable carries even before that. I’m not thrilled about counting on the Giants, but Singletary offers a reasonable floor in a plus-matchup: he’s an RB2 for me this week.

Dylan Sampson | CLE (at CHI)

For the third time this season, Dylan Sampson finished a game with 5+ catches, but without usage in the run game, his floor is too low to trust at any level, even in a PPR setting.

He’s yet to clear seven rush attempts in a game in which Quinshon Judkins has been active, and while the pass-catching prowess is nice to see, it’s far too spotty in this limited offense (five catches on Sunday were three more than he had in all of November).

With a young core, I hope that this offense plays to Sampson’s strengths in a greater way next season, but in terms of the 2025 fantasy playoffs, there’s no intrigue here.

Emanuel Wilson | GB (at DEN)

After carrying 28 times (30 touches) in the Week 12 game that Josh Jacobs missed, Emanuel Wilson has been a complete afterthought with RB1 back in the featured role.

• Thanksgiving at Lions: 4 carries for 14 yards, 0 targets
• Sunday vs. Bears: 3 carries for 10 yards, 0 targets

There’s nothing to suggest that Wilson is due for more work moving forward or that Jacobs is at anything less than full strength. If you want to hold him as an insurance policy or as a ‘one injury away’ piece, I think you can. Still, if you’re in a shallow league where every roster spot needs to be worthy of flex consideration, you’re free to move on in favor of a player who is getting on the field with more regularity.

Isiah Pacheco | KC (vs LAC)

The Chiefs came out of the blocks with Isiah Pacheco as their featured back against the Texans last night, and that was good to see in his second game back from injury.

He didn’t exactly reward them, however (nine carries for 30 yards), and this feels very much like an offense that is going to go into “please save us, Mahomes” mode sooner than later.

If that’s the case, Pacheco’s hard-nosed, two-down back role could disappear in short order. He has yet to run for 60 yards or clear 20 as a receiver in a game this season, and that means you’re essentially chasing a touchdown from a struggling unit that prefers to throw the ball.

Not great.

Rashee Rice is the only KC skill player that I have ranked as a starter, with both running backs falling into the very low-end of the flex discussion in PPR formats.

J.K. Dobbins | DEN (vs GB)

A foot injury has landed J.K. Dobbins on IR and will likely end his fantasy season.

It’s a tough pill to swallow for managers, as he’s been a stable source of work all season, but you failed to build your roster properly if you were banking on a full season from the oft-injured running back.

Dobbins was drafted in 2020 and has played 47 career games (of a possible 101 regular-season games when this season ends). Use this as a reminder that you can NEVER have too much depth at the position, especially as the season nears its conclusion. This is the RJ Harvey show moving forward, and if you want to take a flier, Jaleel McLaughlin is worth a look for those struggling to build out their RB room.

Sean Payton is likely to keep multiple backs in the rotation, and while I think you’re drawing thin with McLaughlin, he figures to be on the field some and now carries a reasonable amount of contingent value.

Jacory Croskey-Merritt | WAS (at NYG)

The preseason steam was fun, but there’s no way to justify holding onto Jacory Croskey-Merritt at this point. He’s been held under a dozen touches in four straight games, has nice receptions for the entire season, and hasn’t found the paint since Week 5.

Chris Rodriguez has grabbed control of this backfield, and while I’m not sold that he’s a fantasy starter, I am sold that this backfield can’t sustain two rosterable backs. The matchup isn’t a worry, but without a role, there’s no clear way to profit from a plus spot.

Move on and chase a player with a higher ceiling (even an injury to Rodriguez wouldn’t elevate JCM into my top 20 at the position, given that Washington finishes the fantasy season with games against Philadelphia and Dallas).

Jahmyr Gibbs | DET (at LAR)

Nothing to see here, just another elite performance from Jahmyr Gibbs. It’s gotten to the point where his spike games no longer carry a shock factor: it seems reasonable when he rips off a huge performance, and that’s when you know a superstar has graduated into the super-duper star tier.

On Thursday night, he posted his fourth game this season with 36+ PPR points, matching the rest of the position across the league in such performances.

That’s crazy.

He just gave us three games with three TDs in a month-long stretch and has hauled in at least three passes in seven straight, fueling speculation that he could be the 1.01 in August. On Thursday night, the Lions made their expectations no secret: a 19-yard swing pass that was ruled a rush was followed up with a 26-yard reception on the next play.

The Rams are as solid as it gets at defensive end, but how do you slow Gibbs? He’s too versatile and too dangerous. I prefer a better matchup, but my downgrade for him is so minimal that it’s hard to notice in the rankings.

The Lions are riding Gibbs the same way you are.

James Cook | BUF (at NE)

James Cook has put the ball on the ground four times over the past two weeks (two lost), and while it hasn’t dented his volume, it needs to be noted for an offense that already lacks confidence when anyone not named Josh Allen is handling the ball.

The lost fumble came on the doorstep as he was trying to score his ninth rushing TD of the season. Allen is going to handle such a high percentage of those valuable looks that Cook can’t really afford not only to fail to convert but also to put the game in jeopardy with a turnover.

At the end of the day, your opponents would love to be complaining about Cook. He’s cleared 15 carries in four straight (and seven of eight) and has multiple receptions in five consecutive games after a bizarre month-long stretch where he totaled one reception.

That versatility figures to come into play this week against an elite Patriots defense that is fresh off their bye, and it’s why I think he still returns top 10 production at the position.

Javonte Williams | DAL (vs MIN)

Javonte Williams just keeps getting it done.

He’s attached to one of the most potent offenses in the league and has been trusted with at least 19 touches in four straight games. The environment has allowed him to touch the ball inside the opponent’s 20-yard line multiple times in every game this season, supporting a profile that already has four more touchdowns on it than his previous career high.

We’ve seen lesser talents in Kenneth Gainwell, Kimani Vidal, and Emanuel Wilson all turn high-end volume into over 19 PPR points against the Vikings. That’s a heavy projection, but not an unreasonable one given his role and the extra rest time ahead of this matchup.

Jaylen Warren | PIT (vs MIA)

There was nothing fancy on the 38-yard, third-down dump-off pass to Jaylen Warren on Sunday in Baltimore, but against the all-out pressure, it opened up, and he scored.

It’s a good thing, too, because his other 10 touches picked up just 24 yards and had no excitement attached to them.

All in all, Warren has scored in three straight, but he did split snaps with Kenneth Gainwell down the middle last week and only outtouched him by one. You’re on reasonably thin ice here, but with Gainwell the preferred option and the expectation for this to be a more favorable script, I think you can get away with considering Warren as an RB2 in PPR formats.

It’s not always a work of art, but he’s the favorite in this backfield for rush attempts and has caught 30 of his 35 targets on the year.

Jaylen Wright | MIA (at PIT)

Jaylen Wright was pushed into lead duties last week against the Jets after De’Von Achane exited with a rib injury, but all signs point to the star running back at full strength for this game, thus making the second-year backup RB nothing more than roster depth.

It was good to see him comfortable in carrying the mail (24 carries for 107 yards), don’t get me wrong, but remember when Marquise Brown put up Xavier Worthy numbers in the Xavier Worthy role in Week 1?

He benefited from the spot, but it meant nothing in the long term. It’s Wright and Ollie Gordon behind Achane, a role that offers contingent value at best.

Jeremy McNichols | WAS (at NYG)

For the record, I don’t think this backfield has a single back that should be counted on, but even if I’m wrong there, I’m confident that Jeremy McNichols won’t be the one who burns me.

He had just one touch on Sunday in Minnesota and has just 50 for the season. This offense has shown no signs of wanting to extend his role, even with various promotions/demotions elsewhere in this backfield.

With three members involved, even an injury doesn’t open up a significant role for any individual. I have no interest in filling out my roster with a secondary piece in Washington, not at this point.

Jonathan Taylor | IND (at SEA)

Among the 41 running backs with 100+ carries this season, Jonathan Taylor ranks No. 31 in percentage of runs coming against a loaded box and, in a correlated manner, 10th in yards per carry gained before first contact.

Daniel Jones hadn’t been playing great football of late, but his resume for the season as a whole still inspired a level of fear in defenses, especially with Alec Pierce’s ability to flip the field on a single play.

I think we can agree that the situation has changed significantly now with the QB change, and we started to see some of that last week when Taylor was stuffed on a fourth-down RPO.

There’s not going to be respect given to the “P” part of that design in the short term, and that takes the upside out of the design. You’re starting Taylor, that’s a non-negotiable. He has one of the three best roles in the sport and is as talented as anyone in the game.

If there’s someone who can overcome circumstance and matchup, it’s JT, but I won’t be surprised in the slightest if we see him struggle to reach four yards per carry in a game where the Colts rarely threaten the red zone.

I’m facing a Taylor-led team in the quarterfinals of the playoffs this week, and I feel far more alive in this matchup than I did a week ago when this matchup was coming into focus.

Jordan Mason | MIN (at DAL)

Jordan Mason found the end zone last week on a nice misdirection design in the second quarter, his sixth score of the season, and a reminder of the threat he is near the goal line.

I imagine that I’ll be higher on Mason than you … next season. For right now, he played two snaps for every three that Aaron Jones did in Week 14, and this offense isn’t built to support two backs on any sort of consistent basis.

Jones doubled him up in routes run, and with me expecting the Vikings to be playing from behind in this spot, I value that role over Mason’s edge in scoring position. I don’t feel great about anything attached to this offense right now, but it’s Jones holding flex value over Mason in Week 15.

Josh Jacobs | GB (at DEN)

Josh Jacobs has just three red zone touches over the past two weeks, 1.3 fewer than he was averaging PER GAME through his first 10 of this season, and the scoring equity isn’t set to spike against an elite Broncos defense.

There’s nothing to do here.

The gravity that Christian Watson is providing for this offense has a positive trickle-down effect across the board and could be part of why Jacobs has a 15+ yard run in three straight.

We know the rushing volume is locked in (17+ carries in four of his past five games), and while his role in the passing game has been a bit sporadic, we at least have five examples of him catching 4+ passes this season.

This matchup has him sitting just outside of my top 10 at the position: a slight downgrade, but not enough to truly impact your decision-making.

Kareem Hunt | KC (vs LAC)

Before the Isiah Pacheco injury, Kareem Hunt was trending in the wrong direction role-wise, but still maintaining value with a stranglehold on the valuable carries inside the 10.

It would appear that we could be headed in that direction again.

Hunt’s first rush attempt in Sunday night’s loss was KC’s eighth of the game (five for Pacheco and two for Mahomes), so while he ended up leading the position in touches for the game, it was clear that the script was more Pacheco-based than we saw in Week 13.

That said, this is still an offense that can move the ball, and that’s been enough to justify starting Hunt more often than not. He has 14 red zone touches over his past three games, and that’s enough to flex him, even if you view the 12 touches last week as something of a ceiling.

The Chiefs do appear to trust Hunt more in hurry-up/pass-heavy situations, which could prove handy against the third-best run defense by EPA. I don’t feel strongly about either Kansas City running back being a strong play this week: both are flexs at best, and you’re hoping for some Mahomes magic to create scoring opportunities.

Keaton Mitchell | BAL (at CIN)

I don’t really know what Keaton Mitchell is in this league, but he’s something.

Before exiting Sunday’s loss against the Steelers, he racked up 76 yards on six attempts, including a 55-yarder where he just seemed to be operating at a different level than the elite athletes he was sharing a field with.

He’s a nice compliment to Derrick Henry in the short term, but what can he be at the peak of his powers?

Only time will tell on that front. If this knee injury results in any missed time, you can move on without much concern. In reality, unless your crystal suggests that a Henry injury is coming, you can move on from Mitchell regardless, understanding that the weeks left to make an impact are low. He really doesn’t have flex value when looking at mean outcomes (38 touches this season).

Kenneth Gainwell | PIT (vs MIA)

We have a dead-even committee, and unless you think the Steelers offense turned a corner last week, that raises serious concerns for all involved.

And when I say “dead even”, I mean it.

Week 14 RB Data

• Kenneth Gainwell: 49% snap share, 19 routes, 10 touches
• Jaylen Warren: 49% snap share, 15 routes, 11 touches

This Pittsburgh offense looked as close to explosive against the Ravens over the weekend as we’ve seen this season, and that provides a glimmer of hope as they head into this matchup with a suddenly surging Dolphins team.

I did it. I made the move.

I have Gainwell ranked one spot ahead of Warren this week, both in the flex range at the position, due to the involvement of the other. This role is pretty much split down the middle, and that’s what I can’t fault you for landing on the other side, but I’m not confident in this offense, and that has me chasing the scoring role, understanding that yardage could be tough to come by.

Of course, when yards are hard to come by, so are points, but it makes the impact of a touchdown that much greater, and Gainwell held a 7-2 edge over Warren in red zone opportunities last week (six-yard TD).

It’s not very comfortable, but I think you’re playing either side of this backfield.

Kenneth Walker III | SEA (vs IND)

Kenneth Walker (glute) was not present on the final injury report last week for the Seahawks, but he struggled in a big way in the win over the Falcons (11 touches for 28 yards).

He was again featured ahead of Zach Charbonnet and finished with a +50% snap share for a fourth straight game, but duds like this are precisely why Seattle has been hesitant to give their most explosive RB more than 15 touches consistently.

READ MORE: Week 15 Fantasy RB Cut List Includes Isiah Pacheco and Trey Benson

That said, the Colts are the 10th-worst pre-contact rushing defense, and we know that Walker can hit big at a moment’s notice. With him earning at least three looks in four straight, there’s enough PPR floor for me to slot him as a viable flex that could well finish as a strong RB2 with one splash play.

Kimani Vidal | LAC (at KC)

Kimani Vidal got the first two running back touches for the Chargers on Monday night during Omarion Hampton’s, but the rookie outdid him 7-2 for the rest of the first half and seemed to be the desired answer to the backfield questions for this team.

The 60-yard catch on a crossing route, where he broke away and ran free with most of the action on the other half of the field, helped fuel a decent fantasy day for Vidal, but that’s not how I have it ranked in Week 15.

Hampton is a fantasy starter, while Vidal is someone I view as a non-factor in a tough matchup. There’s enough contingent value in this profile to hold onto him for one more week, but don’t get too attached. I think it’s likely that he’s cuttable after a low usage Sunday.

Kyle Monangai | CHI (vs CLE)

Kyle Monangai has leveled up from the handcuff to a standalone tier of running back with 12+ carries in four straight games. He has only had multiple receptions twice this season, and given the fluidity of D’Andre Swift in that regard, it’s hard to pencil in much growth on that front.

If you have other options, I’d suggest going that direction. I trust the stingy nature of this Cleveland defense too much to flip on them after a weird no-show against Tony Pollard and the Titans last week.

Chicago running backs combined for 17.9 points last week, and in what is essentially a 50/50 split, that’s not a big enough pie to be split two ways. I’m leaning toward Swift over Monangai if forced to choose, but I’m not excited about either in this spot.

Kyren Williams | LAR (vs DET)

Kyren Williams has scored six times in his past six games and hasn’t been tackled at or behind the line of scrimmage in consecutive contests.

Is that … a bad thing?

The Rams are exploring a committee situation and getting exactly what they want out of it: both Williams and Blake Corum have looked fresh when given the opportunity to shine.

We’ve seen Williams transition from a volume back to one who needs to remain efficient. He’s made the transition well and remains a viable RB2 despite being held to 12-14 carries in five straight games.

The floor COULD fall out from under him in this spot against a good run defense and an offense that could force Los Angeles into a pass-centric script. In Weeks 1-9, Williams out-touched Corum 30-9 in the red zone, but his edge is just 15-11 since, and that’s where the risk comes in.

Detroit owns the third-best post-contact run defense in the league, a skill that could hold Williams to a stat line that we saw from him in Week 12 against a similarly stingy run defense in the Buccaneers (48 yards on 13 touches without a touchdown).

My mean projection for him isn’t drastically different from where we stood a month ago, but the floor component is, and that introduces a big-time dud into the range of outcomes.

Nick Chubb | HOU (vs ARI)

Nick Chubb suffered a rib injury last week in Kansas City, and that put all of the usage upon Woody Marks.

This isn’t worth waiting on. The veteran running back didn’t have a game with a dozen carries at any point in November, and he’s still riding a few big early-season runs to have his YPC average over 4.0 yards per carry.

The Texans are making their move, but Chubb isn’t an important piece to their success and isn’t close to roster-worthy, even if deemed healthy.

Ollie Gordon II | MIA (at PIT)

We saw De’Von Achane (ribs) get hurt last week, and the Dolphins showed their hand in terms of backfield rotation.

Jaylen Wright doubled up Ollie Gordon in terms of snaps and cleared 100 rushing yards in the dominating win over the Jets. Gordon punched in a short score, his third of the season, but this was his opportunity to prove himself as the proper handcuff and he was clearly overlooked.

All signs point to Achane being back this week and that’ll render this discussion useless, but Mike McDaniel made it clear who is second in command behind his star and that makes Gordon waiver wire fodder at this point in the fantasy season.

Omarion Hampton | LAC (at KC)

I thought Omarion Hampton (ankle) looked great in his return to action. He recorded the first touchdown catch of his career on Los Angeles’ first drive, and while both he and Kimani Vidal each touched the ball 15 times, it was clear as the game wore on that this is the rookie’s gig to lose.

Vidal more than tripled Hampton’s route count in third-down situations on Monday night, and if you want to nitpick, that’s where you can do it. The pass-catching ceiling might not be what it was during the first month of the season, but I think we can pencil in a 2:1 rush edge and feel good about it moving forward.

This Chiefs defense is among the best in the sport, but both Javonte Williams and Woody Marks cleared 15.5 PPR points against them over the past two weeks. I think that’s about where Hampton is swimming this week and that lands him as a fine PPR RB2.

Quinshon Judkins | CLE (at CHI)

Shedeur Sanders and this passing game excelled at such a level over the weekend that you may have overlooked the fact that Quinshon Judkins had 14 carries for 26 yards (14 of which came on a single play).

A 58-yard reception allowed him to avoid a complete disaster, but it wasn’t far from it. This matchup doesn’t scare me, and the role is secure (10 carries on Sunday before Dylan Sampson got his second one, 15+ touches in five straight games). Still, the surrounding environment remains prohibitive at a high level.

Judkins has one red zone touch over his past two games and six contests this season with one or fewer touches inside the opponents’ 20-yard line. He’s averaging under half a yard per carry before contact this season and has been hit, on average, behind the line of scrimmage three times this season (Weeks 7-12-14).

You’re signing up for a limited ceiling and banking on the suspected floor that comes with the volume. I’d rather do that than bank on shaky volume and hope for a big play, but this profile has the potential to disappoint in a big way if the Bears can jump out early.

Ray Davis | BUF (at NE)

For the third time in four games, Ray Davis didn’t record a single touch.

James Cook is great, and the Bills are well aware of that, keeping him on the field as often as they can. That said, Davis would be a flex should their RB1 miss any time, and that’s why you’re holding in deeper formats.

If you need every roster spot to be worthy of flex consideration this time of year, I fully get it, and Davis isn’t that.

Rhamondre Stevenson | NE (vs BUF)

We saw Rhamondre Stevenson take on more work in Week 13 than in Week 12 as he showed health, but he stayed on brand and underwhelmed.

There was an outlier 36-yard reception. It counted, but that’s not what you’re counting on from Stevenson and his other 14 touches, which gained 44 yards against a bad Giants defense. Blame the blocking or a lack of conviction, it doesn’t matter to me: 112.6% of his rushing yards over his past three games have come after contact.

He does have 3+ red zone touches in four consecutive games, and that has the potential to bail you out if you’re really backed into a corner, given the matchup, but I wouldn’t be looking to play him if I can avoid it.

Rico Dowdle | CAR (at NO)

After a run of snap dominance from Rico Dowdle over Chuba Hubbard, Carolina used a committee approach to down the Rams in Week 13, and this profiles as a frustrating backfield as we get the fantasy season to the finish line.

In Seattle, because the offense is one we can rely on, you could squint and justify playing both members of their backfield. In Carolina, that’s not the case.

This team has failed to score 10 points in three of their past six games, and a floor like that simply tanks the projectable upside of all involved, especially if we aren’t sure who is going to get the most valuable touches.

Dowdle has fallen on his face in terms of rushing efficiency of late (under 3.3 yards per carry in each of his last three games with 10+ carries) and while the pass catching role has been stable of late (19 targets over his past five games), Hubbard was the third down back with a bullet in Week 13 and that introduces risk into this profile.

This could be another high-volume rushing game for the Panthers, but you’d have to be reasonably desperate to go this far down the ranks with no teams on a bye. After this week, Carolina gets Tampa Bay and Seattle, two run defenses that I have no interest in challenging.

It shouldn’t be a surprise, but there is only one Panther you should even consider with your season on the line, and his name is Tetairoa McMillan.

RJ Harvey | DEN (vs GB)

Six different Broncos had a rush attempt in Vegas last week, and that’s Sean Payton leaving his fingerprints all over the box score, but RJ Harvey (17 attempts) was the only one to reach five, and he profiles as a bellcow moving forward.

He got off to a good start (30 yards on three carries during the first drive) and handled the important work for a Denver team that is chasing the conference’s top seed.

On Sunday, he posted a second straight game with a rush TD and 25+ receiving yards, making him the fifth player with such a streak this season (Christian McCaffrey, Josh Jacobs, Bijan Robinson, and Omarion Hampton being the others).

This is a tough matchup (Green Bay hasn’t allowed a running back to reach 13 PPR points in back-to-back-to-back games), but I view 15 touches as a near lock, and with this versatile profile, that’s enough to rank inside of my top 20 at the position.

Saquon Barkley | PHI (vs LV)

We got the Adam Schefter report last weekend that Nick Sirianni was more involved in the offensive prep ahead of Week 14 than he had been prior, and we saw some juice from Saquon Barkley.

Coincidence?

Maybe. Maybe not.

The Tush Push look that got Barkley on the perimeter to set up his 52-yard touchdown was a nice way to play chess and change the pace of the ground game. The hope is to get Lane Johnson (foot) back this week, and with Barkley’s volume not fading (20+ carries in three of his past five), he’s an RB1 for me in a game where I expect the Eagles to turn things around finally.

Eagles RB Saquon Barkley
🦅 20 CAR
🦅 122 YDS
🦅 1 TDpic.twitter.com/HRsaUMhnpg

— Rafters (@RaftersHQ) December 10, 2025

I’m annoyed by the fact that he has failed to catch a pass in consecutive games for the first time in his career and has been held to two or fewer receptions six times this season. However, the floor is still high enough in this system to play him without a second thought, even if the ceiling isn’t nearly what you thought you were getting this summer when you drafted him.

Tony Pollard | TEN (at SF)

Entering Week 14, Tony Pollard was stuck in the mud for a struggling offense without upside.

Entering Week 15, Tony Pollard is coming off a monster game after being stuck in the mud while still playing in an offense without a ton of upside.

I can’t explain to you where his huge game in Cleveland came from (25-161-2). After failing to get within 70% of his expected PPR points in four straight games, he turned 12.6 expected points into 28.1 against maybe the best run defense in the NFL.

I think we chalk this up the same way we choose to forget that the Raiders went into Foxboro in Week 1 and won.

It’s a sport played with a goofy-shaped ball: weird things happen on occasion.

I think you’re looking at the glass half full to get Pollard into your flex conversation: he’s sitting around Rb30 for me this week.

Travis Etienne Jr. | JAX (vs NYJ)

Travis Etienne scored a pair of touchdowns in the first half of the blowout win over the Colts last week, bringing his season total to nine in a season that has been more valuable than those who don’t roster him may realize.

Left tackle Walker Little (concussion) sat out last week, and that resulted in him averaging under 4.0 yards per carry for the fifth time in six weeks. I’m not too confident in Etienne’s efficiency or role in the passing game (five catches over his past four games), but his ranking sixth in the NFL in red zone touches is enough to keep him in the middle of the RB2 tier as a double-digit favorite.

In December, if I can get 15+ carries and scoring equity, I’ll take it and not complain.

TreVeyon Henderson | NE (vs BUF)

TreVeyon Henderson has given us over 13 expected PPR points in five straight and seems to finally be locked into a 15-18 touch role.

You love to see it.

This Bills run defense is a bottom-5 unit in every category that you’d look at, and we’ve seen it by way of some slate-breaking performances (Bijan Robinson, Sean Tucker, and De’Von Achane all easily cleared 30 points in this matchup over the past two months).

This is the moment you drafted Henderson for. He’s rested off the bye, running hard (4.7 yards per carry after contact against the Giants in Week 13), and being used in a fantasy-friendly way with over 15 routes run in five straight contests.

Henderson is a script-proof back that should have no problem giving you top 15 production in this spot, no matter how you think the game plays out. Rhamondre Stevenson hasn’t had a 20-yard rush since September, and while he had the 36-yard catch in Week 13, that’s going to be Henderson more often than not, given his versatility.

Wheels up. You suffered through a lot of early-season shenanigans for the opportunity to unleash this rookie in the first round of your playoffs with confidence.

Trey Benson | ARI (at HOU)

Jonathan Gannon seemed awfully guarded when discussing the Trey Benson (knee) situation last week, and that should have you planning on being without him until we get either consecutive days of glowing reports or actual on-field proof that he’s recovered.

Gannon expressed some cautious optimism about his returning to play this season. However, he also implied that you don’t rush activation when the player would still be at risk of being shut down shortly thereafter.

Bam Knight continues to be the man getting the work, but this is yet another brutal matchup. It should be noted that the Cards host the Falcons before traveling to Cincinnati in Weeks 16-17: if this is still Knight’s gig at that point, we might be able to have a RB2 discussion, but for now, in a pass-centric offense for a franchise with nothing real to play for, this looks, for now, like an outright avoid situation for Week 16.

Tyjae Spears | TEN (at SF)

Tyjae Spears has caught multiple passes in eight straight games and has caught 30 of his 34 targets for the season.

He’s a viable pass-catching option for Cam Ward, but with just 47 carries this season (3.8 yards per carry, a rate that dips under 3.0 if you remove a single outlier run) and Tony Pollard coming off of his best performance of the season, there’s no real path to nearly enough volume to matter.

I think we’ve seen enough from the 24-year-old Spears to be interested in 2026 should he project for a role extension, but in this offense as it is, he’s not deserving of being on the flex radar, even in full-PPR formats.

Tyrone Tracy Jr. | NYG (vs WAS)

The expectation is for Tyrone Tracy to be fine after suffering a hip contusion in Week 13 before this team went on bye, but it really shouldn’t matter if you have a competitive fantasy team.

Over his past two games, his 30 carries have gained just 98 yards, and Devin Singletary outplayed him against the Patriots in a major way. More concerning than the limited efficiency on the ground was the fact that his 13 routes yielded just one target, a catch for a loss of three yards.

His being a receiver in a former life was interesting following the Cam Skattebo injury, and we saw him catch seven of eight targets for 119 yards in the two weeks before this dud, making the airball that much more harmful.

I still think he’s the most likely Giant RB to earn a target. Still, if that’s not a forgone conclusion and he’s going to give up the valuable work on the ground to Singletary, there’s no clear path for him to return to top 30 production, even in a plus-matchup.

Woody Marks | HOU (vs ARI)

The Texans are establishing an identity, and Woods Marks is a big part of that.

The rookie is averaging just 3.5 yards per carry this season, and it was even worse on Sunday night in Kansas City (2.6), but it’s clear that they trust him, and that’s good enough for me in this spot as a two-score home favorite.

Marks has 16+ touches in five consecutive contests, and with the Cardinals ranking in the bottom 10 in both yards and touchdowns per running back carry, he’s a fine RB2 that comes preloaded with a reasonable floor.

Do I think he has 25-point upside behind this offensive line? Not really, but not every piece is meant to be a matchup definer. Thanks to the volume, He’s a good bet to reach double figures in points, and with reasonable touchdown equity, he’s got every chance to finish near 15 points and get the job done as a starter for you.

Zach Charbonnet | SEA (vs IND)

For the third time in five games, Zach Charbonnet averaged north of 5.5 yards per carry and is showing some semblance of upside when he gets handed the rock (at least one 13+ yard run in three straight).

Combine that with his goal-line role, and there is some flex appeal in this profile, even as the snaps gradually move in the direction of Kenneth Walker.

As a big favorite, this would be the spot to use him: he’s still viewed as their most consistent back, and if they are playing with a lead, the fact that he has half as many targets this season as Walker doesn’t matter as much.

I still prefer Walker to him if you’re deciding between Seahawks, but both reside in my top 30 and check in ahead of the Chicago duo as they take on the Browns.

Wide Receivers

A.J. Brown | PHI (vs LV)

A third straight loss for the Eagles saw them fail to clear 21 points, even with the benefit of overtime, for a fifth straight game.

You’d think that I’d be bringing you some spicy A.J. Brown quote as a result, but there was no one to point the finger at. There has been some petulance from Mr. Inner Excellence this season. Still, in a game where a catchable pass bounced off his hands for an interception and a perfectly placed deep ball slipped through in the end zone, Brown’s fourth straight double-digit target outing felt strangely hollow — even as he topped 100 receiving yards for the fourth time this season.

For fantasy, I’m not too worried about the results of the Eagles (+27% target share with an end-zone look in each of the three consecutive losses). But there is no denying that the vibes in Philly are off and that introduces a level of weekly risk that can’t be quantified.

He’s a top 10 play for me in this plus-spot: this offseason is going to be an interesting one.

Alec Pierce | IND (at SEA)

Alec Pierce was scripted into the plan last week against the Jags with three targets on the first six throws of the game (two catches for 26 yards), and when I made that note on Sunday, it was meant to drive him home as a potential DFS shot play this week in a tough matchup.

Pierce is a solid player, even with a somewhat limited skill set. If he is going to be prioritized, we are looking at many bites at the big play apple, and that’s what we need to feel good about him.

Then Daniel Jones got injured, and the math changed.

It should be noted that he had a nice 29-yard grab from Riley Leonard last week as the QB created time with his legs and Pierce found space. Still, for a player like this who was running hot (the only qualified WRs averaging more fantasy points per catch this season are Davante Adams, Tee Higgins, and Jameson Williams), a change under center is the last thing you want to see.

Seattle ranks in the top 6 in completion percentage, yards per pass, and interception rate when defending the deep pass. Pierce is an auto-bench for me this week, given the unknown that comes with the QB change.

Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET (at LAR)

It looked and sounded like Amon-Ra St. Brown was going to sit last week. The newser with Dan Campbell coming out of Thanksgiving framed the injury as non-serious but impactful. His taking Week 14 off with extended rest ahead of Week 15 made all the sense in the world.

The low-ankle sprain didn’t appear to limit him in any capacity in the win over the Cowboys, and you’re safe to assume that you have an elite asset for the playoff push.

Detroit funneled the first pass of the game in his direction, and he apparently passed the needed eye test: he went on to post his 10th target share of at least 28% of the season. St. Brown is having the second-best yards per route season of his tremendous career, combining a career-high aDOT while sustaining his impressive YAC numbers.

No player has more catches since he entered the league in 2021 (511), and you should be thrilled about banking on him the rest of the way with Detroit fighting tooth and nail.

Brian Thomas Jr. | JAX (vs NYJ)

We are at the point in the program where small victories are big victories.

What I mean is that we can play Brian Thomas, and that’s better than where we were for most of this season. It’s not a “big” victory because he’s not close to the asset that we thought we were getting when we spent up on him in August, but he’s startable now that he’s produced over PPR expectations in three straight games.

Trevor Lawrence hit him for gains of 18 and 39 yards in the first quarter last week against the Colts, a sign that there is an effort being made to keep him happy. Of course, one catch the rest of the way wasn’t ideal, but 89 yards on a target share nearing 20% is good enough.

We take what we can get.

Jakobi Meyers remains my top-ranked Jag WR this week. Still, we know that it’s Thomas that holds the edge in per-target upside, and why would spunky Jacksonville not explore that upside against a Jets team that, somehow, has yet to fall into an interception this season?

The avoidance of the deep pass in the modern NFL is due in large part to the math: the turnover probability outweighs the catch probability in a lot of instances. But when the math changes, and it does when you’re playing the Jets, so does the playcalling.

I think we get something like what we saw last week: 6-8 shots that result in a few big plays, and that’s enough for him to squeak into the low-end WR2 tier for me in Week 15.

CeeDee Lamb | DAL (vs MIN)

CeeDee Lamb opened the week in concussion protocol, and all reports suggest that he’s making his way through it in an efficient manner.

He, of course, benefits from having last played on Thursday night, and with the extended work week, I’m operating under the assumption that we will have him at full speed this week against the Vikes.

He was torching the Lions last week before departing (6-121-0 on just 25 routes). While Minnesota can have success against WRs, we have seen a few high-end talents gash them (DeVonta Smith scored 33.3 PPR points against them back in Week 7, while DK Metcalf, Ladd McConkey, and Amon-Ra St. Brown all put up 18+ points in this matchup).

At this moment, I have zero hesitations about labeling Lamb as a top 5 receiver that has the potential to swing your matchup with a standout performance.

Chimere Dike | TEN (at SF)

Chimere Dike has earned at least seven targets and scored in two of his past three games, impressive performances at face value, but even more when you consider the competition (Seahawks and Browns).

The fourth-round rookie seems to be trusted by Cam Ward, and that’s huge for his long-term outlook. In the Week 15 discussion, however, I can’t swallow the risk that comes with betting on this offense to chase marginal upside.

Dike has reached 45 receiving yards just twice this season, and despite the recent positive signs, 8.4 yards per catch is a tough sell in an inefficient offense.

Chris Olave | NO (vs CAR)

Chris Olave continues to play through this back injury, and while his 3-30-0 stat line last week wasn’t what you had in mind (his worst showing of the year), he and Tyler Shough had a shot at connecting on a splash pass to open the game.

If that’s connected, it’s a different story.

That, naturally, is the risk you take in playing a receiver with a rookie QB. All in all, Shough has played above my admittedly low expectations this season, and Olave’s 28.2% target share is worthy of our trust.

The Panthers have allowed an opposing WR score at least 30% over his season average in nine of their past 10 games (Jauan Jennings and Davante Adams most recently), a trend that I like to spill over to New Orleans’ clear-cut WR1, who went 5-104-1 against them a month ago.

Christian Kirk | HOU (vs ARI)

I think the Texans want Christian Kirk to be what Keenan Allen is to the Chargers: a veteran receiver who shows up for the critical downs/moments.

I’m not starting Allen with confidence, and he’s better at the role, so I’m certainly not interested in Kirk for the remainder of this season.

The 29-year-old has failed to catch multiple passes in four of his past five games, and with the emergence of Jayden Higgins, there really is no motivation for this team to prioritize Kirk’s involvement.

If he’s sitting at the end of your bench for some reason, that roster spot is better off spent on a player who is one injury away from a significant role or even a D/ST with a specific matchup you like over the next few weeks.

Christian Watson | GB (at DEN)

CeeDee Lamb, Rashee Rice, Nico Collins, Amon-Ra St. Brown.

I could keep going, but at some point I’ll lose your attention. Those are receivers who have scored fewer PPR points than Christian Watson since Week 11. He’s the sixth-highest scoring player at the position (total points) over that stretch as he’s turned 92 routes into 17 catches for 264 yards and five touchdowns.

Scoring variance has been in his favor, and while that is likely to regress (though he is making a habit of scoring on a high percentage of his receptions), it’s the 26.5% target share that has my attention.

Jordan Love is showing no hesitation in calling his number vertically, and I think the Packers knew that these soft long passes were within their QB’s skill set; they just thought that Matthew Golden would be the speedster most likely to be running under them.

Last weekend against the Bears, Love noticed Watson one-on-one with a safety and simply lobbed the ball into vacated space, telling his receiver to win the foot race to a spot.

Easy game.

He coasted into the end zone on that play and continued his red-hot run. This week, of course, carries more risk. Jayden Reed is a week healthy and figures to be a focal point due to avoiding the Patrick Surtain matchup.

That said, while Watson will line up across from the reigning DPOY, there’s a decent chance that Love looks his way on the chances he gets when not locking horns with the best corner in the sport.

For me, you’re playing with fire here. If I’m confident in my starting lineup and rounding it out with a flex, I’d prefer to go the safer route with a Khalil Shakir type. If you’re the last team in the playoffs and trying to knock off a 13-1 powerhouse, I have no issue in running Watson out there: he’s healthy, and we know that he is capable of racking up points in a hurry when that’s the case, even in a tough spot.

Cooper Kupp | SEA (vs IND)

Cooper Kupp scored his second touchdown of the season last week against the Falcons and continues to run ahead of Rashid Shaheed in terms of raw totals. Still, he earned two fewer targets on five more routes than the burner, and this situation is begging to flip after Shaheed took a kick to the house last week.

I don’t think there’s upside in playing Kupp this week, a game that I expect Seattle to control from start to finish, and I don’t think the former fantasy great even needs to be rostered at this point.

The Seahawks operate in a low-volume offense, and I’m not sold that a second pass catcher holds value … and I’d argue that Kupp is fourth among them in terms of likelihood to hit your lineup.

Courtland Sutton | DEN (vs GB)

It’s been a rather unique season for Courtland Sutton. After a hot start, he was being pushed by Troy Franklin for WR1 duties on this team, but Denver seemed to shift priority at the bye, and last week, we saw Sutton post his second-highest targets share of the season (27.8%).

He was scripted into the plan (two catches for 22 yards on the first drive), and it was clear that the Raiders really didn’t have an answer for him. It was his sixth game with over 100 air yards, and if you catch Bo Nix on the right day, that gives him a top 15 ceiling.

That’s the catch.

It’s hard to feel good about the QB play consistently. He completed seven-of-11 passes when under pressure last week, and that was great, but what does it mean?

He was 13-of-38 in such spots the three weeks prior, with three of those off-target passes being intercepted, two in the first meeting with the Raiders (the same opponent he was efficient against over this past weekend).

I don’t trust it.

Sean Payton clearly wants Pat Bryant to be involved, and Denver is going to want to make this an ugly one-score game. We could see a shallow passing plan in an effort to protect Nix from himself, and if that’s the case, we know there’s a floor to fear (better than WR30 just twice since a productive Week 7).

Sutton is a low-end PPR flex for me this week. He’s someone you feel obligated, not excited, to play.

Darius Slayton | NYG (vs WAS)

Darius Slayton found paydirt against the Patriots on Monday night before the Giants went on bye, his first score of the season, but not something that I’m buying into at any level.

His 14.6-yard aDOT comes preloaded with a wide range of weekly outcomes, but we really haven’t been paid off with the big day to pay off for the down ones (yet to reach 15 PPR points in a game and held under five points four times).

New York’s big-play threat has been held under eight expected PPR points in eight of 10 games and doesn’t have a touch in the red zone since Week 3: I have nothing against taking a shot on a one-trick pony, but I have a problem with doing it irresponsibly, and right now, that’s what Slayton is.

Davante Adams | LAR (vs DET)

Davanate Adams is kind of like peak Derrick Henry these days in that you chase the strong mean and upside cases, understanding that a dud will be sprinkled in every now and again.

For Henry, the game script was the deciding factor. When his team was trailing, he was at risk. For Adams, it’s more random.

No one in the NFL has proven capable of slowing him down inside the red zone consistently, but when the Rams strike for three touchdowns of 28+ yards, there’s only so much he can do.

Even in a week where he failed to score, the future Hall of Famer earned a pair of end zone targets: he wasn’t far off from getting you the stat line you were expecting. He gets the 10th-worst red zone defense in the league this week and will again lead the position in terms of TD equity.

I don’t like betting on touchdowns with my WR2 slot, but outliers exist, and Adams is certainly one of them.

Deebo Samuel Sr. | WAS (at NYG)

Deebo Samuel seems to carry a similar role no matter the state of this offense (5-8 targets in seven straight games), and that would be great if we had any reason to trust this passing game.

But we don’t.

He’s reached 65 receiving yards in just one of those games and has now been held under 30 in four of them. This offense lacks creativity and balance, and that’s going to make life hard on the receivers, something we saw with Samuel posting a 1.2-yard aDOT in Minnesota last week.

He’s a strong YAC player, but with so much traffic around the line of scrimmage, he’s not really being put in a position to succeed in a meaningful way.

Could that change against the G-Men?

In theory, it’s not too bad of a matchup, but they are a top-10 unit in terms of YPA allowed on those short passes, the role Samuel is basically pigeon-holed into these days. There’s comfort in knowing that the opportunity count has a reasonable floor, but without much upside equity, he’s still hovering around WR30 in my Week 15 PPR ranks, making him a flex option at best.

DeMario Douglas | NE (vs BUF)

It’s been more than a month since a target to DeMario Douglas last hit the ground, and that’s usually a great sign, but when efficiency at that level isn’t met with a role extension, it tells you all you need to know.

Only three times has Douglas reached a 14% target share in a game this season, and that’s not a role that is even close to interesting. Drake Maye is playing great, and the Patriots are winning at a high level: do we really think that they use the bye week to scheme up more work for a slot option in Douglas that offers little upside?

Doubt it.

Stefon Diggs is the WR1 in this offense, Hunter Henry is a consistent asset, and the other secondary pass catchers offer significantly more upside. I think Douglas outscores Kyle Williams more weeks than not moving forward, but if you are looking for a spike play or two, the rookie is the flier to take simply based on how he is used (one catch from him could be worth what four of Douglas are).

DeVonta Smith | PHI (vs LV)

I watched Monday Night Football, then watched it again before writing this article because I couldn’t, for the life of me, remember DeVonta Smith getting eight targets in the overtime loss.

Upon further review, he did get there, but it speaks volumes about their potential that, in a standalone spot, I couldn’t recall more than a handful of them.

In total, he caught four balls for 37 yards, 28 of which came on what was pretty much the only play I remembered from him before the second watch. He’s scoring once a month, and that’s not nearly enough to offset the recent inefficiencies (20 catches on 39 targets over his past five games).

The Raiders rank outside of the top 20 in both pressure rate and opponent passer rating, thus giving this Eagles passing attack yet another opportunity to get things moving in the right direction. There is a wide range of outcomes to consider here, but Smith has proven himself worthy of our trust in the past, and if you believe that Philadelphia can push 30 points in this game, I think you’re playing Smith everywhere that you have him.

DJ Moore | CHI (vs CLE)

Rome Odunze (foot) missed last week’s huge game at Lambeau, and yet, he finished the week with more receiving yards than DJ Moore.

The veteran receiver turned three targets into -4 yards and really hasn’t looked comfortable in this Ben Johnson offense this season, outside of a blip here and there.

Even with Odunze’s struggles, it’s clear that he’s ahead of Moore in the pecking order of this offense, a claim that I’m comfortable in making about both rookies (Luther Burden and Colston Loveland) as well. Cole Kmet remains a factor, and the running backs are operating at a high level, so where exactly are a handful of targets for Moore going to come from?

This is a tough matchup, but this isn’t a matchup thing. Moore isn’t being prioritized by his own team, and I don’t have time for that in a win-or-now spot: you should feel free to move on in all formats.

DK Metcalf | PIT (vs MIA)

Stomach pains resulted in DK Metcalf spending time in a Baltimore hospital last week after he put on a clinic (7-1480, his second-best game of the season).

Earlier this week, Mike Tomlin expressed optimism in his WR1’s availability for this week, so I’ll take him at his word and assume that we are good to go.

Maybe Arthur Smith was playing the long game: Pittsburgh dialed up a deep shot to Metcalf for a 53-yard gain on their first drive last week, something that we had seen essentially none of during the first three months of the season.

It was great to see, but an outlier week followed by a hospital trip, even if minor, isn’t exactly something I view as sticky. Metcalf has held under 50 receiving yards in five straight games before Week 14’s explosion, and it’s not like those were top-notch defenses shutting him down (Colts, Chargers, Bengals, Bears, and Bills).

He’s a flex play and nothing more. I still have questions about the upside of this offense, and that means he falls into the Justin Jefferson/Michael Pittman tier, where I think the talent is greater than the situation.

Can they overcome it? Of course. Am I confident that they have a realistic path to the top 20 production? Not so much.

Dontayvion Wicks | GB (at DEN)

Yep, checks out.

Dontayvion Wicks goes bonkers on Thanksgiving (6-94-2 in Detroit), only to be a complete no-show on Sunday against the Bears.

He wasn’t on the final injury report (there was mention of an ankle during the week), and yet, he ran three routes.

One. Two. Three.

That ranked 11th on the team, and in an offense that can be a bit spastic with target distribution, that’s a good way to take your name out of the hate.

Do I think it sticks? I have no idea, but the fact that a minimization to that level is even within the range of outcomes is enough for me to move on without a second thought. You’re not playing him this week after that showing, and we just learned that a single star performance guarantees you nothing the next week, so would a big Week 15 get Wicks into your Week 16 lineup?

It wouldn’t for me, and that’s why I don’t think he’s roster worthy in any league.

Garrett Wilson | NYJ (at JAX)

News broke earlier in November that Garrett Wilson was placed on IR with a knee injury that was expected to keep him out of multiple games at the time of the initial diagnosis.

Given the direction of this season, it’s reasonable to think that we’ve seen the last of New York’s WR1 this season. That hasn’t been reported, and until it is, you’re holding. The required four-game absence means that Wilson can return for Week 15’s game in Jacksonville, a matchup I’d be fine with targeting, and a New Orleans matchup the following week would also be intriguing.

But I’m not counting on it.

This is a floundering team that isn’t exactly motivated to compete. This passing game is broken, but with Wilson under contract through the 2030 season, he’s their primary path to digging out. The Jets need to figure out the quarterback position, but they have a building block in their top receiver and will want to enter 2026 with him at full strength instead of putting him in harm’s way this winter.

George Pickens | DAL (vs MIN)

On Thursday night against the Lions, with a game that saw 74 points scored, George Pickens offered fantasy managers just 8.7 PPR points, the second-worst showing of his season.

That wasn’t great, and social media was quick to point out some low-effort moments.

I get it, but I think three months of production have earned him a little more benefit of the doubt than that. He’s caught 5+ passes and earned 9+ targets in six straight games, and his aDOT last week was right with what you’d expect (12.1, season: 12.4).

It was a tough showing against a very good Detroit team that benefited from the ability to allocate more resources his way after CeeDee Lamb left with a concussion. Pickens has been critical to this offense all season, and nothing I saw on Thursday has me changing that thought for the rest of the season.

The aggressive Vikings are as willing to put their corners on an island in the name of pressure as any defense in the league. Given how often Dak Prescott looks Pickens’ way down the field (multiple deep targets in every game this season and multiple deep completions in five contests), I’m entering Week 15 with just as much confidence in him as I did Week 14.

Ja’Marr Chase | CIN (vs BAL)

There aren’t many things that can slow Ja’Marr Chase

Jake Browning is one of them, and, at least last week, Mother Nature is another. The elements in Buffalo last week didn’t stop points from being put on the board, but Chase’s aDOT was just 3.8 yards, and that’s going to make it tough for him to live up to expectations.

You’ll be fine.

There’s another potentially high-scoring spot here and a seemingly weatherproof game the following weekend against the Dolphins. Chase deserves to be regarded as a top-5 option at the position, especially against a Ravens defense that just saw DK Metcalf gash them for 148 yards on a 36.4% target share.

Jakobi Meyers | JAX (vs NYJ)

Jakobi Meyers has scored in three straight games, and while the efficiency was lacking on Sunday against the Colts, he posted his highest target share of the season (32.3%) and his most air yards since joining the Jags.

He had a rush inside the five-yard line last week, and the touchdown came in the first quarter. The team made it known that they were impressed with his consistency when they acquired him, and they’ve made good on that optimism.

His 9.4-yard aDOT with Jacksonville points to some nice upside to complement the floor that comes with his high target role. Jacksonville is making its playoff move, and Meyers is at the center of it: you can bank on him moving forward with confidence, especially in full-PPR formats.

Jalen Coker | CAR (at NO)

The last time we saw the Panthers, Jalen Coker was enjoying his best game across the board. In Week 13 against the Rams, he set season highs in targets (six), yards (74), scored his first touchdown, and had more air yards than he had in the two weeks prior combined.

I hate to report it, but it means nothing.

He still hasn’t hit double-digit expected PPR points in a game this season. The performance two weeks ago was strong, but it appears to be more random than predictive. If we are talking about a player capped at six low-quality targets in a Bryce Young-led offense, there’s more room for failure than success, and I’d hate to see you chase the one big game that we all missed.

The 2026 conversation will be interesting: if Young is truly a franchise QB, a WR2 is likely to emerge, and I favor him over Xavier Legette. But when it comes to the remainder of this season, there’s no reason to get caught up in recency bias and chase the production from Week 13.

Jameson Williams | DET (at LAR)

Expectations were sky high for Jameson Williams for the majority of last week, with Amon-Ra St. Brown seemingly on the wrong side of questionable.

Detroit’s star receiver ended up suiting up, and it didn’t hurt Williams’ stock in the least. He had a rush attempt in the first quarter that finished inside the two-yard line, and that touchdown would have been nice, but no one is complaining about nine targets, seven catches, and 96 receiving yards.

Williams’ 29% target share on Thursday night was his second-highest in a healthy St Brown game this season (32% against the Browns in Week 4), and it was his fourth time clearing 17 PPR points in a five-game stretch. The volume is one thing, but even more encouraging is the versatility of those looks.

For the first time in his career, Williams has consecutive games with multiple catches at or behind the line of scrimmage. The game-breaking plays over the top are always going to be a pathway for JaMo to reward you for your trust, but if this Dan Campbell system is exploring him in space, the floor/ceiling math changes in a huge way.

He’s never going to be able to outrun all of his risk, but Williams is a player I’m more comfortable with today than I was a month ago and is the type of moderate risk I’d be more than willing to take in the fantasy postseason.

Jauan Jennings | SF (vs TEN)

There’s value in what is known, and Jauan Jennings falls into that bucket.

As a part of this Kyle Shanahan system, he’s filled a role that has seen him post 9.2-12.0 expected points in six of his past seven games. He’s scored in four of his past five games and hasn’t had a target share under 21.7% since Week 6, making him one of the more stable players in this range of the rankings.

You’re going to have to look elsewhere for upside, but Jennings is a great bet for 12-15 PPR points in a matchup that places him against a secondary that has been bottom-5 in YPA all season long.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA (vs IND)

Jaxon Smith-Njigba set up his own 28-yard TD last week with a 30-yard reception, proving to be the one-man band he’s been all season long.

At this point, the defense knows what’s coming and is waving the white flag. It was nice to see JSN bounce back from his first dud of the season, and he’s reinforcing the value of a high-end receiver. Teams can stack the box or get out to a big lead and eliminate rushing potential.

What are they supposed to do against a receiver who is open the second the ball is snapped?

Smith-Njigba has 28.5 PPR points than any other receiver, and he’s going to hit 300 points this season before 10 players at the position get to 200. He’s doing all of that while ranking 17th at the position in points scored via end zone targets

Marquise Brown, Jayden Higgins, and Isaac TeSlaa are among the 16 that rank ahead of him, a nod to JSN’s ability to win in space and pick up points with the ball in his hands.

Jayden Higgins | HOU (vs ARI)

It’s probably too little too late for Jayden Higgins to truly be an asset for your playoff run, but the rookie is positioning himself to be a popular sleeper adjacent pick next season.

He’s earned at least five targets in five straight games, and that’s a skill that usually takes time to develop. We haven’t seen the explosive plays go his way (zero 30-yard receptions), but that might just be a matter of time for a 6’4” weapon that averaged 14.6 yards per catch during his college career.

Nico Collins is going to be the primary target, but if Higgins develops as I think he can, there’s a chance he’ll be a top-30 producer 12 months from now.

We aren’t there just yet, however. Despite some reasonable volume, he’s topped out at 65 receiving yards in a game this season and has been held under 40 on 10 occasions.

Jayden Reed | GB (at DEN)

If the Packers were worried about Jayden Reed, it didn’t show on Sunday during his return to action. After not having played since Week 2, Reed caught four passes on his 17 routes and even handled a pair of carries (the jet sweep in the third quarter being the highlight) in the win over Chicago.

He was third among the receivers in snap share (48.1%) and that’s been consistent with what we’ve seen from him in the past, but if this offense is going to feature Christian Watson the way it has of late, does that not open the door for a more short-range winner like Reed to earn reps over a Romeo Doubs (80.8%) type?

I’m not projecting it, but I think it’s possible and that hope is keeping him in the flex conversation for me this week, even in a tough matchup. We saw Jordan Love call Reed’s number for an important 18-yard play in the fourth quarter last week, and his role in the slot, where Patrick Surtain rarely travels to, appears safe.

Reed flirted with double-digit PPR points against the Bears, and I think he builds on that now that he’s had a week to readjust to the speed of the game. He and Watson are back-to-back in my ranks, a tier that checks in ahead of the Jerry Jeudys and Jordan Addisons of the world, both of whom are coming off productive weeks.

Jaylen Waddle | MIA (at PIT)

I loved seeing Jaylen Waddle get handed the ball for the first time this season on Sunday (21-yard gain), and he even capped the drive with his sixth touchdown of the season.

He also made a chunk play (24-yard reception) that set up a De’Von Achane touchdown, making good on the 10.9% rise in yards per catch we’ve seen from him this season.

Waddle has seen at least 30% of Miami’s targets during every game of this win streak. While the volume of the offense as a whole can be low (by design), he’s cemented himself as the only consistent target earner and that should have him locked into your lineup this week against a Steelers defense that just gave up 20.6 PPR points to Zay Flowers, the fourth time in a six week stretch in which an opposing WR hit 20 points against them.

Jerry Jeudy | CLE (at CHI)

You can trust one of two things. You can either buy into Jerry Jeudy’s 60-yard touchdown on Sunday against the Titans as a sign of things to come, or you can take a more thought-out approach and understand that this Browns offense is still a mess.

First Drive

• Quinshont Judkins rush, four-yard loss
• Quinshon Judkins rush, three-yard gain
• Shedeur Sanders sacked
• Punt

That was the opening script against maybe the worst team in the sport. I’m not even worried about the result of the drive as much as I am the playcalling: does that look like a coaching staff that wants you to pay the fantasy bills with a member of their passing game?

This is your last shot. If you want to play Jeudy (I wouldn’t), the Bears did just give up three 20+ yard touchdown passes to the Packers, and Jeudy is certainly the most qualified member of this offense to expose that weakness.

That said, this is an iffy rookie QB going on the road to face a playoff team, and you’re trying to bet on a receiver that has seven catches and 12 targets over his past three games.

The juice isn’t worth the squeeze for me: Jeudy is hovering around WR40 status for me this week.

Jordan Addison | MIN (at DAL)

Yep, we are at the point where a 4-62-0 stat line from a Viking receiver feels like a big-time win.

Jordan Addison had 56 total yards in Weeks 11-13, and that makes Sunday, as ordinary a stat line as it was, feel like an upswing. I encourage you to take a step back and realize that Sunday’s production was nothing more than ordinary and that the QB responsible for getting your WR3 the ball is four-of-12 for 20 yards when pressured over his past two starts.

We can agree that JJ McCarthy looked better on Sunday, but that was against a dead team with a fading defense. I’m not suggesting the Cowboys are the ‘85 Bears, but they have been better since the bye (even after the shellacking at the hands of the Lions) and have a rest advantage entering this game.

I view Adonai Mitchell, Alec Pierce, Xavier Worthy, and Jerry Jeudy as WRs with a wide range of outcomes: I have them all ranked ahead of Addison for Week 15.

Josh Downs | IND (at SEA)

In theory, if you take a distressed asset and make a big change around it, that asset can only gain.

In life, I’m with that train of thought. In the Colts’ passing game, less so. Josh Downs hasn’t hit 60 receiving yards in a game this season and is in the midst of a second month-long TD drought.

Daniel Jones was responsible for some of those struggles, but his season is done after the Achilles issue. That paves the way for change, but nothing on this roster gives me confidence that it will help this passing game rediscover the form it had earlier in the season.

Michael Pittman’s role seems to be highlighted most post-Jones injury last week, and with Tyler Warren filling a specific role, this offense isn’t built to support too many options in what promises to be an awfully grounded attack as they attempt to play defense with their offense staying on the field.

Things are ugly in Indy right now, and I’d rather not have any of their receivers dictating my fantasy fate if at all possible.

Justin Jefferson | MIN (at DAL)

“Obviously, it’s a difficult season. It’s probably one of the most difficult seasons.”

That was what Justin Jefferson had to say before Week 14, his fifth straight game without a score and ninth straight with a sub-67% catch rate. He doesn’t have a 20+ yard catch in three consecutive games (63 total yards over that stretch) and while the 31-0 win had to feel good at some level, WRs are as stat driven as any position in the NFL and I couldn’t help but notice that Jefferson has been held under 0.50 yards per route four times in his career so far:

• Week 13 (at SEA): 0.12
• Week 3, 2022: 0.33
• Week 17, 2022: 0.45
• Sunday (vs. WAS): 0.46

J.J. McCarthy posted his best QBi grade of the season last week, but it came via tight end targets and check-downs.

Jefferson, one of the game’s purest route runners, has gone consecutive games without a catch on a ball thrown past the sticks. That’s tough to fathom and has him sitting outside of my top 20 this week, though I will admit that seeing McCarthy at least have some success gave me a touch more confidence that I had entering Week 14.

I’ve got him ranked in the same area (WR3/flex tier) as Michael Pittman, with a QB change and Rome Odunze at less than full strength and struggling.

Kayshon Boutte | NE (vs BUF)

Kayshon Boutee has defied logic by scoring on six of his 29 catches and 38 targets, taking full advantage of what it is that Drake Maye brings to the table.

If you view “defying logic” as a way to run your fantasy team, there’s little I can say that is going to change your mind.

Patriot Scoring Rates

• Boutee: 20.7% of receptions and 15.8% of his targets
• All Others: 6.9% of receptions and 5.1% of receptions

His role comes with a level of variance, and we really haven’t seen the dark side of that variance just yet: when he’s been targeted, you’ve been rewarded. That’s a dangerous skill set to bank on in a perfect matchup, never mind in a potential weather spot against a Bills team that ranks top 10 in both deep ball passer rating and touchdown rate.

I can live with getting knocked out of the fantasy playoffs, I can’t live with it coming as a result of me being left high-and-dry when banking on a WR whose profile is this reliant on singular plays.

Keenan Allen | LAC (at KC)

Keenan Allen hasn’t been a top 35 receiver in a game since he was WR3 out of nowhere against the Colts in the Week 7 loss, and there is no ground to stand on in terms of hoping for a return to relevance for our stretch run.

He’s important to the Bolts, I won’t deny that. He’s their go-to third-down option and has caught seven of the eight balls thrown his way over the past two weeks. But on Monday night, the running backs soaked up the valuable usage (Kimani Vidal with the splash play and Omarion Hampton with the TD), introducing yet another moving piece to a pass game that already has four mouths to consider via WR/TE.

Allen doesn’t need to be rostered: this is meant to be a high-floor profile, and that’s not even remotely close to the case in this offense as it’s currently structured.

Keon Coleman | BUF (at NE)

Keon Coleman found the end zone in Week 13 after being healthy scratched in consecutive games, and that put his name back on the radar of desperate fantasy managers.

It shouldn’t have.

Coleman’s lack of importance to this offense was reflected in those disciplinary actions (remember when the Cowboys put the hammer down on George Pickens/CeeDee Lamb for a whole possession?), and while he’s active these days, he’s not close to mattering enough for us.

Week 14 Route Counts, Buffalo WRs

• Gabe Davis: 27
• Khalil Shakir: 23
• Tyrell Shavers: 18
• Brandin Cooks: 15
• Coleman: 8

The fact that he was able to earn three targets in that role should be viewed as a minor miracle. Davis is the play on this offense if you’re searching the waiver wire for hope, a role that could be moderately intriguing given how stout the Pats are against the run.

Khalil Shakir | BUF (at NE)

My goodness, did you get lucky on Sunday.

Josh Allen did his crazy Josh Allen thing, extended a fourth-down play for a bit, noticed a defender with a turned head, and lasered a touchdown pass to Khalil Shakire in the second quarter.

That was half of Shakir’s catch count for the game, and if that’s not a fourth-down play, I’m not sold that Allen even throws it.

The book on Shakir used to be one of limited upside and a high floor, but with just three catches on 37 routes over the past two weeks, is that still the case?

His slot rate has dipped of late (Tyrell Shavers is picking up some usage in that regard), and that impacts both his volume and efficiency.

Now, for this week, that might actually be a good thing as the rested Patriots allow the sixth fewest yards per pass thrown to the slot. They also have a great run defense and are accustomed to the dynamic that Allen brings to the table by way of seeing him twice annually, so if there’s going to be a Shakir bounce-back week, this is the spot.

I think we get it.

I trust Allen enough to take what the defense is giving him, and if that makes Shakir an extension of the run game through creative/quick looks, I think he’ll leverage that. The per catch production might not jump off the page at you, but we’ve seen him catch 7-8 passes on 8-10 targets three times since the beginning of November, and that’s along the lines of what I’m projecting in this spot.

Shakir is a strong flex play for me this week, and I’d play him over Michael Pittman, Justin Jefferson, DK Metcalf, and the red-hot Christian Watson.

Ladd McConkey | LAC (at KC)

Quentin Johnston had his moments early in the season, and Ladd McConkey/Oronde Gadsden controlled the middle of the season, and now it seems that there is no alpha that we can count on.

Volume was an issue across the board on Monday night, and it’s been an issue for 1.5 months for McConkey (no more than six targets in five straight). A lack of opportunities can be offset via chunk plays or efficiency, but which of those do you feel good about these days?

McConkey’s longest reception over the past month is 15 yards; he doesn’t have a red zone target in four of his past six and has seen his catch rate drop from 73.2% as a rookie to 62.1%.

He’s the Charger WR I have ranked highest, but I wouldn’t use “comfortable with” to describe him. McConkey is sitting just outside of my top 24 at the position, making him a PPR flex in most spots, with the risks being understood.

Luther Burden III | CHI (vs CLE)

With Rome Odunze out of action, the Bears leaned more into two-TE sets and kept Luther Burden as their WR3.

Chicago Route Counts, Week 14

• Olamide Zaccheaus: 33
• DJ Moore: 33
• Burden: 27
• Cole Kmet: 24
• Colston Loveland: 23

While the role is still underwhelming to some degree, he did lead the way in catches (four), targets (six), and receiving yards (67) in Lambeau.

The rookie has been more involved over the past month, and it feels like a true breakout is on the horizon. The question, of course, is whether it comes this season with all the chips in the middle of the table or if there’s a delay until next season.

Odunze’s status will factor into exactly where Burden falls in the ranks, but his trajectory was positive even before the DNP from Chicago’s WR1. He’s a risky flex play this week: the Browns defense is tough, but they have allowed a higher-than-average passer rating on deep balls, thus making a splash play possible.

If you limped into the playoffs and fear that you are overmatched, this is exactly the type of profile I want access to.

Marquise Brown | KC (vs LAC)

Marquise Brown had the early 35-yard catch on Sunday night against the Texans, but it was his only reception of the game.

This offense pretty clearly isn’t what it’s been in the past, and that is being felt around the fringes. Rashee Rice is getting fed weekly, and Travis Kelce still sees his handful of targets, but that’s about it. Xavier Worthy has struggled to earn looks, and this was the sixth time in seven games that Brown failed to reach three receptions.

I’d look elsewhere for your Week 15 breakout star: no one in this offense outside of the two featured options has a projectable path for a big stat line.

Marvin Harrison Jr. | ARI (at HOU)

Marvin Harrison Jr. missed Weeks 11-12, but we saw him return productively against the Bucs in Week 13 (69 yards on seven targets). He was much more efficient than the red-hot Michael Wilson in that game, getting the high-quality looks that their WR2 had thrived with when he was absent.

But he suffered a heel injury, and it nagged him enough to have him inactive last weekend against the Rams. He was ruled out on Friday, a day that also carried the news that Kyler Murray’s 2025 season was over.

Coincidence?

The Cards obviously have nothing left to play for, and while their QB situation is TBD moving forward, Harrison still has two years left on his rookie deal and is firmly a part of this team, trying to build a reputable offense.

MORE: Free Fantasy Football Start/Sit Optimizer

We know that the WR1 in this Jacoby Brissett-led offense is a strong bet, but until we get glowing health reports, I’m operating under the assumption that Harrison is on my fantasy bench. This is a brutal matchup for a team that is already looking to 2026: I’m not putting my fantasy season in the hands of a player viewed as a building block for a team that lacks short-term motivation.

Matthew Golden | GB (at DEN)

Matthew Golden returned from a wrist injury and proved that the wrist might not have been the only thing keeping him out.

The Packers gave the rookie just four routes in what was their most important game of the season to date, and I think that tells you all you need to know when it comes to holding out hope for a late-season breakout.

Jayden Reed returned to action and looked healthy, while Christian Watson continues to do what Golden was drafted to do and challenge defenses vertically. In a different world, Golden explodes early in the season with Watson on the shelf, but in this world, the opposite has come to pass, and that means in all redraft leagues, Golden is dead weight.

In a dynasty situation, I actually think you could make a decent argument for him as a buy low. He has a single skill that is already NFL-ready, and Green Bay seems to have its QB of the present and future. Holistically, this is a good spot for the Golden profile long-term, and if he’s rostered by a manager that can win a title this year, maybe you can acquire him at a discount.

Worth a look.

Michael Pittman Jr. | IND (at SEA)

Michael Pittman came alive on Sunday with a nine-catch 79-yard effort in Jacksonville. Still, with the Daniel Jones injury, the risk outweighs the projectable reward for me, especially when you consider the finishing run of opponents.

Remaining Schedule

• Sunday at Seahawks
• Week 16 vs. 49ers
• Week 17 vs. Jaguars
• Week 18 at Texans

He had a touchdown wiped off the board over the weekend due to an OPI flag, and I fear we could see these receivers asked to do too much for the remainder of the season.

Pittman is my favorite receiver on this team, but he was under 30 receiving yards in each of the three games leading up to Week 14, and that sort of floor is going to be in play for each remaining game.

Pass Catching Data With Riley Leonard, Week 14

• Pittman: 27 routes, 10 targets, 8 catches, 63 yards
• Alec Pierce: 24 routes, 5 targets, 3 catches, 54 yards
• Josh Downs: 21 routes, 4 targets, 3 catches, 18 yards
• Tyler Warren: 30 routes, 5 targets, 1 catch, 2 yards

Pittman over Downs pretty clearly for me, but I wouldn’t be thrilled with having to start him this weekend.

Michael Wilson | ARI (at HOU)

Marvin Harrison gets ruled out, have the social team put together a cute graphic, look intelligent.

Life doesn’t have to be hard. Michael Wilson has been nothing short of unstoppable when functioning as the WR1 in this Jacoby Brissett system; there is just no two ways about it. If you do the completely irresponsible thing of projecting his three games in that role over the course of an entire season, you get 204 catches (55 more than the current single-season NFL record) for 2,257 yards (563 more than the current single-season NFL record).

Crazy good.

If this heel injury sidelines Harrison for another game, you’re firing up Wilson again, though with slightly lower expectations against maybe the best defense in the league. At the very least, the target count should be there, and that makes him a higher upside version of Jakobi Meyers in my eyes.

If Harrison plays, I’m not sure you feel good about any of these receivers. We know Trey McBride is going to demand 25-30% of the targets, and we also know we faced this situation in Week 13 against a Bucs defense that is vulnerable through the air: we got 36 yards on six targets from Wilson.

Greg Dortch (chest) being on injured reserve does open up some target equity in that situation, which is why I am currently planning to start Wilson wherever I have him, regardless of Harrison’s status.

But it would be fun to walk into the fantasy postseason with new-age Calvin Johnson on our rosters, wouldn’t it?

Nico Collins | HOU (vs ARI)

It didn’t take long for the Texans to highlight their ace receiver against the Chiefs on Sunday night as Nico Collins had receptions for 46 and 53 yards in the first half.

As has been the case with this offense for the majority of the season, consistency was an issue: two catches for 22 yards the rest of the way.

We’ve yet to get the slate-breaking game from Collins, and maybe that changes this weekend (Puka Nacua just lit up the Cards for 167 yards and a pair of touchdowns). Even if it doesn’t, he’s rebounded nicely from a slow start (90+ yards in four of his past five) and should be viewed as a rock-solid WR1 the rest of the way.

As for the 2026 conversation, I think it’ll be more of a C.J. Stroud discussion than anything. We know that Collins can be an alpha: if Stroud shows the poise he displayed last week during a playoff run, we could be looking at a top-5 player at the position.

Parker Washington | JAX (vs NYJ)

A hamstring injury had Parker Washington labeled as iffy all week long heading into Week 14, and he was ultimately ruled out on Sunday.

We’ve seen him earn 7+ targets in four of his past five games, and the 23-year-old has shown some nice progress in his third season, but you can move on at this point. His role in this offense isn’t loaded with upside, and with him physically compromised, he’d be difficult to trust even if he were to go through full activities entering this weekend.

The Jags travel to Denver next week: you’re not missing out on anything if you cut ties. Maybe the fast track in Indy during a Week 17 matchup is interesting to you, but that’s a long-term thought that can be considered the closer we get. For right now, his roster spot is better used to chase singular matchups that can help you survive and advance.

Pat Bryant | DEN (vs GB)

It certainly feels like we have more good teams with unclear target hierarchies this season than in years past, and I’d put the Broncos near the top of that list.

For nearly three months, Troy Franklin was pushing Courtland Sutton for the WR1 role in this offense. But now Pat Bryant is playing over him, and anyone who hits the field is going to see 1-4 targets (nine different Denver players fell into that bucket last week, including both Franklin and Bryant).

You dynasty managers should be encouraged by Sean Payton turning the way of the rookie in these impact games, but for redraft, this passing game is an unmitigated disaster.

Bo Nix is a bit of a wild card to start with, but if the targets aren’t going to be concentrated, how can we feel good about playing any Bronco pass catcher outside of Sutton?

I don’t think we can. Last week in Vegas, the closer to the end zone that the Broncos got, the wider the route distribution was. This is a tough matchup, but I’m not sure that this evaluation would be any easier in an ideal spot.

Throw a DFS dart if you’re feeling frisky and want to chase a unique lineup, but in redraft, I like as much stability as I can get, and there’s almost none in this aerial attack.

Puka Nacua | LAR (vs DET)

Puka Nacua cleared 110 receiving yards three times in September, and he did it again on Sunday, his first such performance since the blistering start.

He was at the center of everything Matthew Stafford wanted to do vertically against the Cardinals, something that was obvious with him reaching 130 receiving yards before any of his teammates made it to 30.

Puka Nacua is a highlight machine 😳🔥@NextGenStats | #RamsHouse pic.twitter.com/3c8EeYVhTN

— NFL+ (@NFLPlus) December 10, 2025

Davante Adams’ very specific role has been highly effective, but there is no debating as to who the alpha is in this system. Nacua is pacing for a career year in receptions, yards, and touchdowns. He’s on the short list of receivers that can single-handedly swing matchups, and it wouldn’t surprise me in the least if we saw an effort like that on Sunday.

Enjoy the ride this season: who knows what 2026 holds if Matthew Stafford hangs up his cleats (for the record, I think Nacua will be great, but we are in the midst of this Justin Jefferson situation, and that has me thinking critically about everyone).

Quentin Johnston | LAC (at KC)

The Bolts completed 12 passes on Monday night against the Eagles, and that is going to make production difficult to come by for all involved.

Quentin Johnston (shoulder) was a participant in a full practice late in the week, so health wasn’t to blame for his third straight game with exactly three targets. The dip in volume from the beginning of the season isn’t unexpected, but gone are the chunk plays that we had come to assume were a part of this profile, and that’s why I’m benching him in all leagues until otherwise noted.

Johnston hasn’t had a 25-yard catch since September.

September.

Over that stretch (Weeks 5-14), 203 different players have a 25+ yard reception, and Johnston’s name isn’t on that list. Shedrick Johnson’s is. Dareke Young’s is. Jameis Winston’s is.

Rashee Rice | KC (vs LAC)

It’s plenty fair to have wanted more from Rashee Rice on Sunday night against the Texans, but when looking at the role, it was everything you wanted; it was just a rare instance in which it failed.

Rice had his worst game of the season due to a 50% catch rate and a lack of dangerous targets. The low efficiency happened, but with a 2.7-aDOT in a Patrick Mahomes-led offense, it’s not exactly the type of thing that you worry about sustaining over time or even over multiple weeks.

There was the bad fourth-down drop and a few other spots where the connection just wasn’t as sharp as it had been over the past two months. Maybe part of it was due to a tough matchup getting into the head of KC’s WR1, and maybe some of it was trying to do too much.

Whatever the case may be, I’m not sour at all and believe he should be viewed as a solid WR1 in this matchup against a Chargers team that has a short turnaround after their overtime win on Monday night.

Los Angeles has the fifth-lowest average depth of throw for their opponents, a defensive structure built for Rice to return to his 6-8 catch production that we had come to assume before the dud in Week 13.

Rashid Shaheed | SEA (vs IND)

Rashid Shaheed had his best game with the Seahawks, catching four balls for 67 yards in the blowout win over the Falcons.

For good measure, he added a 100-yard kick return TD, the most extended play in the NFL this season, giving you double the points if you also had access to the stingy Seattle D/ST.

I think this was a potential glimpse into what this team could be in the postseason, but the fact of the matter is that Shaheed is still a part-time player with a volatile skill set. I think he deserves more of a chance, but I’m not the one coaching this team.

Week 14 Participation Report

• Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 74.1% snaps, 10 targets, 28.1 points
• Cooper Kupp: 72.4% snaps, 3 targets, 11.5 points
• Shaheed: 51.7% snaps, 5 targets, 16.7 points

I think he brings far more upside to the table than Kupp at this point, but what motivation does Seattle have to play that card until it’s more necessary?

None.

I want to tell you that Shaheed has the potential to break the Week 15 slate and advance you to your semifinals, but I don’t believe it. He and Sam Darnold will connect on a big play this season, my money would just be on it being in January where every inch means more.

Rashod Bateman | BAL (at CIN)

Rashod Bateman wasn’t slowed by the ankle injury (his 38 routes ranked behind only Zay Flowers for the Ravens on Sunday). Still, he’s one of those receivers who is asked to suck up defensive attention, not one who is relied on in a meaningful way for our game.

Despite being on the field plenty, Bateman finished Week 14’s loss with a 9.1% target share and hasn’t had a five-target game since Week 3 against the Lions.

This Ravens offense doesn’t look right, and they have a handful of players they need to get on track before they expand Bateman’s role. There’s no need to hold here or even to stash as an upside/in case of emergency play: you can do better.

Ricky Pearsall | SF (vs TEN)

Ricky Pearsall averaged 15.2 yards per catch across his five collegiate seasons and is at 13.3 during his 18 games as a pro with a 12.9-yard aDOT.

He’s a 25-year-old who was a first-round pick in 2024, so there’s plenty of reason to think that he can develop his route tree, but for right now, he is a serious threat and a serious threat only.

I don’t mind specialized receivers, and I certainly don’t mind betting against the Titans, but whether you want to blame the system of the trigger pullers, this offense hasn’t been explosive at any point this season. San Francisco went on bye in Week 14, and up to that point, here are the 10 worst qualified QBs in terms of passer rating on deep passes this season:

• Mac Jones: 70.7
• Trevor Lawrence: 70.3
• Kyler Murray: 67.9
• Brock Purdy: 59.5
• J.J. McCarthy: 55.8
• Dillon Gabriel: 54.0
• D.J. Stroud: 53.8
• Tua Tagovailoa: 53.0
• Cam Ward: 47.9
• Geno Smith: 45.4

If you want to tell me that better days are ahead for Pearsall, I’d believe you. I just wouldn’t believe you if you insisted those better days were part of 2025: we have zero evidence that they were.

Rome Odunze | CHI (vs CLE)

Heel and ankle injuries had Rome Odunze on injury reports with regularity since October, but he missed the first game of his NFL career on Sunday with “rest for a stress fracture in his foot” being cited as the reason.

While that’s certainly not great.

The belief is that he will return sooner rather than later, and every game has value to the Bears. However, it is plenty reasonable to raise an eyebrow at this situation for a receiver who has caught just seven of 21 targets over his past three games.

You drafted Odunze as your WR3 or WR4 this summer with the thought being that he could, with time, take work off the plate and DJ Moore, and peak at the right time. That you might have to lose the initial fight, but that you’d be in a good position to win the war.

You were right about Odunze being more talented than the industry gave him credit for, but man, you were wrong about the run-out.

He scored five times in September and was threatening weekly top 10s as we flipped the calendar to October. Since, however, it’s been unsteady to say the least … exactly the inverse of what you expected.

He’s scored just one touchdown since that opening burst and has turned 21 targets into just 102 yards (seven catches) over the past three weeks. Is this a receiver we should consider benching until he rediscovers his early-season form?

As it turns out, it depends on what you think of the matchup of the lines.

Chicago has allowed pressure on under 32% of dropbacks six times and over 32% six times this season.

Rome Odunze Splits

• Low-pressure games: 18.5 PPR PPG, 27.8% target share, 5.0 catches
• High-pressure games: 5.8 PPR PPG, 19.2% target share, 2.3 catches

This means that a bet on Odunze is effectively one against Myles Garrett.

You can do that if you’d like, but I’m not. Say what you will about the Browns as an organization, but they’ve ridden #95 to a top-5 pressure rating all season long and posted a cartoonish 62.5% pressure rate in Week 10 against the Jets. I’m not projecting a repeat there, but anything in that stratosphere, based on the trends developed this season, but Chicago’s WR1 is in trouble.

The 49ers (Week 17) are the only below-average pressure defense left on the Bears’ schedule: I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but the trends align with Odunze’s recent trajectory.

Romeo Doubs | GB (at DEN)

The Packers welcomed Jayden Reed back and went full Packers on us as a result.

In their win over the Bears, 10 players saw a target, and no one saw more than four.

Christian Watson (4-89-2) made the most of his looks while two targets to Romeo Doubs hit the ground, but those stat lines could easily reverse this week. Or maybe not. Or maybe Jayden Reed takes a week of game reps and looks like a world beater in this spot, a matchup where he likely won’t draw much Pat Surtain.

The fact that all of those outcomes are possible is exactly why you can’t count on any of them. Doubs is a fine player to hold at the end of your bench because any week could be his week, but in this widespread offense where nothing is assured, you’re better off using him as a hope-and-prayer type than you are locking him in with expectations.

This offense will operate through the ground game until forced to do otherwise, then isolate singular matchups that change on a down-by-down basis. Good luck if you’re buying a Packer WR lottery ticket this weekend.

Stefon Diggs | NE (vs BUF)

If it feels like the Stefon Diggs season has been a rollercoaster, that’s because it has been.

And that’s going to continue to be the case.

He’s hit a 61% snap share just once since September, and I don’t care how good you think Drake Maye is; limited playing time makes consistent production an uphill battle.

For the season, Diggs has four games of under six PPR points, including each of his past two, but he also has four with over 15. This is a strong offense, and that’ll result in some peaks, but part of the beauty of this unit is that it doesn’t have a single point of failure.

I do have him ranked as the pretty clear WR1 in New England, and with this game having shootout potential, that’s enough to land him in the low-end starter conversation for me, though you need to be aware of the downside.

If I’m a top seed that is loaded with depth, I’d rather plug in a consistent 6–7 target player over one in Diggs who saw 19 looks in Weeks 10-11, but just seven in Weeks 12-13.

Tee Higgins | CIN (vs BAL)

The conditions in Buffalo. The secondary. Gravity.

None of those things was going to stop Tee Higgins from doing what he wanted to do on Sunday. He finished the game with a 6-92-2 line against the Bills, highlighted by a grown man, one-handed grab where he reminded anyone watching of just how tough of a matchup he can be.

His big game came during a down Ja’Marr Chase effort (44 yards on eight targets), and that’s not always going to happen, but it was good to see Joe Burrow call his WR2’s number in a major way (four catches on his first 10 pass attempts against the Bills).

He’s back in concussion protocol again this week, and that puts him at serious risk of a Week 15 DNP. You’ll have to monitor this situation, but it’s pretty straightforward: Higgins is a solid WR2 if he’s cleared, and if not, Andrei Iosivas enters the top 40 discussion and shouldn’t be left on waiver wires.

Terry McLaurin | WAS (at NYG)

Terry McLaurin had the early 28-yard grab on Sunday against the Vikes, but he was hardly heard from after that (13 more yards) because Washington as a team was hardly heard from after that.

In the game, they had the ball for barely 25 minutes and struggled to sustain anything. McLaurin was very clearly part of the script (46.2% first-half target share), and with Jayden Daniels on the iffy side of questionable right now, it’s worth noting that Marcus Mariota got his WR1 14 targets in Week 13 against a tough Broncos defense.

The opponent is much softer in this spot, and the target competition is less with Zach Ertz (ACL) out for the season (he and McLaurin saw a 60% target share in that Denver game). I think you could make a reasonably sound case to rank him as high as WR7 this week, and I’ve got him as WR11.

It’s not been a great season if you invested in McLaurin this summer, but one big week at the perfect time can help offset some of that, and he does face the Cowboys during the fantasy Super Bowl in Week 17.

Tetairoa McMillan | CAR (at NO)

The one catch Tetairoa McMillan made against the Rams made a huge impact (go-ahead 43-yard TD), but we can’t overlook that a good defense was able to hold him to just two targets on 22 routes.

The “fear a good team” narrative isn’t one we need to sweat this weekend, but with the Bucs and Seahawks left on the schedule, there’s some serious risk to consider as we come down the stretch.

For this week, you’re playing him (four touchdowns in his past three games) without much of a second thought. He only scored 11 PPR points when these teams first met, but I’ll bet on Carolina gaining more than 175 yards of offense in the rematch.

I’ve got McMillan ranked as a low-end WR2 this weekend, and that’s tentatively where I have him ranked for 2-26 redraft purposes.

Wan’Dale Robinson | NYG (vs WAS)

The Giants are struggling, but that can often result in an elevated floor for their pass catchers, and Wan’Dale Robinson is a great example of such.

With Jaxson Dart back under center in Week 13, Robinson’s slot usage ticked back up (61.5% of his routes, under 43% in each of the three games prior) and he earned 8+ targets for a fifth consecutive game.

The efficiency spikes and the aDOT dropped, the perfect combination of events for fantasy managers. The limitations of this offense factor into the overall picture (just two end zone targets since September), but there is value in knowing that you can pencil in double-digit PPR points, and that’s what we have here.

Xavier Legette | CAR (at NO)

We shouldn’t care about Xavier Legette.

Since Week 7, he’s been held under 25 receiving yards five times. That sort of floor is crippling and can’t be trusted in a fantasy lineup. That said, he’s still lingering on some rosters because of the two weeks where he actually cleared 25 yards; he was a top 15 PPR receiver.

Those random spikes are interesting enough to have our interest. Still, with Jalen Coker producing before the bye, there’s an increased level of risk when it comes to a receiver who already has a wide range of outcomes.

The Panthers want to pound the rock, and I think we’ll see plenty of that. I prefer Coker to Legette as the WR2 in this offense, but that role doesn’t hold top 40 value for me, regardless of who you give that production to.

Xavier Worthy | KC (vs LAC)

Baby steps.

Baby steps might not be enough this time of year, but at least things are moving in a reasonable direction.

On Sunday night, Xavier Worthy had a pair of 20+ yard receptions and, believe it or not, it was his first game like that since Week 4 against the Ravens.

How crazy is that?

The splash plays were good to see, but this is a broken Kansas City offense right now, lacking direction behind Rashee Rice. Their WR1 saw eight targets against the Texans and then saw six players check in with 2-5 looks in the loss.

Worthy comes preloaded with upside by nature of his skill set and quarterback, but he remains ranked outside of my top 40 at the position in this divisional matchup against the second-best defense at limiting 20+ yard completions this season.

Zay Flowers | BAL (at CIN)

Zay Flowers had a highlight reel, over-the-shoulder grab in the first quarter against the Steelers and sustained the momentum for his best game since the opener in Buffalo.

Now, he still hasn’t caught a touchdown pass since that loss to the Bills, but this was his eighth game with a +25% target share, and that’s allowed him to sustain value while Lamar Jackson struggles.

Three of his eight 30+ yard receptions this season came on Sunday, and if the Ravens are going to continue to push his role down the field, there is top 12 upside in this profile. I’m not going that far, but he’s a solid WR2 for me: the last time he went to Cincinnati, he racked up 120 yards from scrimmage and accounted for 26.9% of Baltimore’s receptions.

Tight Ends

AJ Barner | SEA (vs IND)

AJ Barner (knee/shoulder) wasn’t on the final injury report last week, and he was used as usual, running 22 of 31 Seattle routes at the position and earning four of their five targets.

The role is fine, but we are running into volume issues left and right for players not named Jaxon Smith-Njigba in this offense. Barner hasn’t cleared 35 receiving yards in six of his past seven games, and without a ton of room for volume growth, this isn’t a profile I’m all that interested in.

The Seahawks are a double-digit favorite in this spot, and that suggests that this could be a rushing-heavy script down the stretch: I’m not confident that a second pass catcher in this offense provides value this week, and even less sure that Barner is that guy.

Brenton Strange | JAX (vs NYJ)

This Jags run is a fun one, and with it has come a new tight end that we can count on.

There’s risk involved, but that’s the case with all but a few TEs in 2025. Brenton Strange has hauled in 31 of 39 targets this season, is averaging nearly 12 yards per catch, and is viewed as an important piece on a motivated offense.

If you’re asking for more, you’re getting greedy.

The 5.7 PPR points last week weren’t ideal, but in a game where Jakobi Meyers earns nearly one-third of the targets, and Brian Thomas makes a few splash plays, a six-target showing should be viewed as a net win, even if the production wasn’t up to your standards.

We just saw the Jets get beaten into the turf by the Dolphins last week, and if the Jags have similar success, you’re looking at 8-12 PPR points as a very likely outcome, a result that would land him safely inside the top 10 at the position.

Brock Bowers | LV (at PHI)

I look forward to the offseason research piece on whether the fear of a bad offense outweighs the talent of a play more often than not. I have Brock Bowers in a league, and it seems like every Sunday, I’ll turn my attention to the Raiders game, see two stuffed runs and a sack, and ask myself why I thought spending up on a player attached to this nonsense was a bulletproof plan.

By the end of the day, however, Bowers typically hits his quota of one highlight play, and it usually has some nice fantasy value attached to it.

Michael Mayer (ankle) was inactive last week against the Broncos, though he could return. Bowers capped Vegas’ masterpiece of a first drive on Sunday with a 15-yard score, but he managed just 31 yards the rest of the game with the Geno Smith/Kenny Pickett duo unable to find consistent chunk plays, as per usual.

Bowers is great, and I think there’s a world in which Ashton Jeanty is too: this offseason is going to be critical in terms of roster construction when it comes to their respective 2026 ADPs. As for this week, you just keep plowing through.

You don’t have to watch the game to get credit for the fantasy points, so I’d suggest something more fun for your Sunday afternoon.

It’s a long list of things that are more fun than watching the 2025 Raiders play football.

Chig Okonkwo | TEN (at SF)

An athletic 26-year-old tight end with a 77.4% catch rate this season from a rookie quarterback is interesting when looking long-term, but Chig Okonkwo isn’t close to viable right now and shouldn’t be counted on to breakout over this next month just because you’d like him to.

His next end zone target will be his first, and he only has one red zone touch all season. His 25.1 routes per game make for a nice note, but until Cam Ward turns them into something, we can’t assume that fantasy numbers are going to pop up out of thin air.

Cole Kmet | CHI (vs CLE)

If you watched the Chicago loss in Green Bay last week, you may have caught a glimpse of the Cole Kmet snag on a Caleb Williams scramble.

It was a work of art.

It was also one-third of the targets he saw for the entire game, despite running one more route than Colston Loveland.

It’s been an awfully slow burn in Ben Johnson handing the keys to the TE position to the rookie, and we aren’t there yet in terms of snap rate, but we are there for fantasy purposes. Kment has just one game this season with more than three receptions, and I’d bet that number staying at one the rest of the way.

He’s a decent play in a good offense and with the right role, but not when he’s the secondary option at his own position on a team that would prefer to run the ball.

Colston Loveland | CHI (vs CLE)

There have been a few instances this season when the Colston Loveland skill set has been on display for all to see. We love those spots because they confirm our preseason takes, but how about the one-yard touchdown against the Packers last week?

In their most important game of the season to date, Ben Johnson schemes up a play-action set where he asks his rookie tight end to navigate all of the traffic around the line of scrimmage, run across the field in the direction of the rolling out QB, and have the wherewithal to make the catch and finish the play.

Mission accomplished and, more importantly, trust gained from the playcaller.

Loveland was again outsnapped by Cole Kmet, but he ran two more routes and saw the position’s only two targets in third-down spots over the weekend, again speaking to the trust that Johnson has in his developing weapon.

The Browns coughed up 12.5 PPR points to Noah Fant in the season opener, but only once has a TE cleared 11.5. I don’t expect Loveland to break this slate in a tough matchup, especially with Kmet still involved at an annoyingly high level, but he does sneak into my top 12 at the position, ahead of more “floor” plays like Hunter Henry (vs. BUF) and Juwan Johnson (vs. CAR).

Dallas Goedert | PHI (vs LV)

Dallas Goedert was featured on Monday night in a major way, recording 38.1% of their receptions in the loss and giving his fantasy managers 15.8 points after totaling just 13.1 in his previous three combined.

Are we buying it?

Generally, no.

Jalen Hurts has failed to complete more than 21 passes in six of his past seven games, and with two talented WRs by his side, this type of volume can be as fleeting as it is encouraging.

It’s clear at this point that the Birds would prefer not to throw in volume, and they may not be asked to against the Raiders. He has three or fewer catches in seven games this season, and that creates a concerningly low floor.

He comes in just ahead of the streamer tier for me this week because of the implied point total for Philly, but I’m not overly confident. I wouldn’t view him as a solution at the position: play him this week and circle back next week to see where he falls in the hierarchy.

Dalton Kincaid | BUF (at NE)

I was a little hesitant last week with how reports around Dalton Kincaid were being phrased.

He had missed three straight games with the hamstring injury, and the wording was “plans to try to play” and similar for a snow game against the Bengals. We

Buffalo TE Snap Data, Week 14

• Kincaid: 18 routes, 5 targets, 33.3% snap share
• Dawson Knox: 14 routes, 7 targets, 46.7% snap share

At some level, we did see him capped, but I thought he looked great and can be counted on this week.

Dawson Knox actually handled Josh Allen’s first pass last week (32-yard gain) and went on to lead the team across the board with six catches on seven targets for 93 yards. Some may view it as competition for Kincaid, but I’m choosing to see it as a position being prioritized at a high rate.

Knox hasn’t been much of a factor this season when Kincaid has been healthy, and I don’t think we are going to see TE-TE-RB as Buffalo’s three leading receivers in “normal” weather conditions. The fact that Allen was willing to take what was given to him like that, however, provides me with confidence that Kincaid, barring any sort of setback in practice, can be rolled out as a viable TE1 in all formats this weekend.

His touchdown last week came on an option route where both he and Allen saw the same thing. Communication like that and the lack of consistency at the WR position should make you feel good about where things stand for Kincaid.

Dalton Schultz | HOU (vs ARI)

Dalton Schultz has tumbled outside of my top 15 this week after posting his second sub-five target effort in a three-game run (three games prior: 28 targets earned).

The win last week in Arrowhead was huge. But it wasn’t exactly based on a high-flying passing game, so with Jayden Higgins developing and Christian Kirk remaining involved, I’m not too interested in a player who is at risk of being the fourth look on what could be a low dropback afternoon for C.J. Stroud.

Schultz has seen just a single end zone target over his past 10 contests, so if you’re hoping for a bailout in that regard, just know that it’s an awfully thin bet.

David Njoku | CLE (at CHI)

David Njoku got into the end zone on Sunday in the loss to the Titans, his fourth score of the game, but his troublesome knee was banged up on the play and left him on the sideline for the remainder of the game.

Healthy or not, there’s no reason to be interested in Njoku at this point.

The Browns’ passing game looked better last week, and they are pretty clearly interested in pulling levers that will impact their long-term outlook. In that vein, Harold Fannin not only had the big game (8-114-1), but he doubled up Njoku in first quarter snaps.

The rookie has been picking up steam for over a month now, and I fully expect that to be the case for the remainder of the season. If you have Fannin, you have the lone asset in this passing game that you can trust; if you have Njoku, you’re burning a roster spot.

Dawson Knox | BUF (at NE)

If you want to avoid a landmine, step away from that Dawson Know waiver claim.

Do it slowly.

The backup tight end led the Bills in catches (six), targets (seven), and receiving yards (93), none of his teammates had more than 41, in the exciting win over the Bengals on Sunday, and that is sure to have the attention of TE streamers entering the playoffs.

Relax.

Dalton Kincaid was fresh off three DNPs (hamstring) in a snow game, and yet, Knox still was asked to run a route on only half of his snaps (Kincaid: 90.5%). This offense essentially avoided the WR position on Sunday (Knox, Kincaid, and James Cook were their top three in receiving yardage), and Knox took advantage.

Good for Week 14, but not predictive. In the three games Kincaid missed, Knox caught a total of seven balls for 68 yards with no touchdowns. That’s the type of per-game production you’re more likely to see for the rest of 2025 than a repeat of last weekend’s aberration.

Evan Engram | DEN (vs GB)

The broadcast suggested that the Raiders viewed stopping Evan Engram as a priority, and while I think that’s an interesting approach, they did it.

And lost.

I disagree with the approach in large part because the Broncos have been pretty good at stopping him (one game with 50+ yards and no more than 2 receptions in 3 of his past 5). Engram has one score this season, and all of the “Sean Payton wants a Joker in his offense” talk can go to bed at this point.

This could be a knock-out, drag-out type of game in Denver, a fun watch, but not one that has me overextending for tight ends with limited usage. Last week, Courtland Sutton earned 10 targets and RJ Harvey six, while nine others saw 1-4 looks. That’s the chaotic signature of Payton and has me dumping any Engram shares in favor of the best option on the wire (I’d go as low as Theo Johnson or Darren Waller).

George Kittle | SF (vs TEN)

George Kittle was shut out in his first game back from injury in Week 7 against the Falcons, a game in which the 49ers massively prioritized Christian McCaffrey. Still, he’s caught 4+ passes in every game since and has seen a target share north of 21% in four consecutive games (over that stretch: 18.2 PPR PPG).

By nature of how this offense functions, Kittle doesn’t have Trey McBride-like upside, but when it comes to the second tier at the position, he’s as good an option as there is.

A dud performance is certainly possible if San Francisco controls this game from start to finish, but I’d rather worry about that than talent or role. You’re starting Kittle with confidence this weekend, and his fantasy value could spike over the final two weeks with the Colts and Bears up next.

Harold Fannin Jr. | CLE (at CHI)

Shedeur Sanders’ first pass of Week 14 went to Harold Fannin for a 17-yard gain, and it served as foreshadowing as this offense had its best output of the Sanders era, giving this fanbase reason for optimism, even in a loss to the lowly Titans.

Tight ends with an 8-100-1 stat line this season

• Trey McBride (Weeks 10 and 11)
• Brock Bowers (Week 9)
• Dallas Goedert (Week 6)
• Fannin (Sunday)

The rookie has now cleared 7.5 PPR points in eight of his past nine, and with David Njoku battling a knee injury, he might get even more run over the final few weeks. His target floor since Week 6 is five looks, and with a 24+ yard catch in four of his past five, the big-play upside for this 6’4” athlete is strong.

As his rookie season goes on (youngest TE in the NFL), Harold Fannin Jr. keeps showing up on tape playing faster and faster https://t.co/hXG6AqPQSF pic.twitter.com/U6xBH4QgR7

— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) December 10, 2025

I’ve got Fannin penciled in as by TE7 this week, ahead of Jake Ferguson, Dalton Kincaid, and Travis Kelce.

Hunter Henry | NE (vs BUF)

Hunter Henry has parlayed consecutive games with multiple red zone touches (one such game through the first 11 weeks this season) with 35.8 PPR points over his past two games and seems to be carving out a niche in this offense that MVP favorite Drake Maye heads.

The ceiling isn’t elite, but with a target share north of 18% in three straight, this role is trending in the right direction at the right time. The floor is worth your time with Henry averaging his most yards per route since 2017, and given the shootout potential of this game, your scoring equity is a touch higher than usual.

I suspect this will be the highest I have Henry ranked for the remainder of the season (at Ravens and at Jets over the next two weeks), so make sure to get him back into your lineup after the annoying late bye.

Isaiah Likely | BAL (at CIN)

That’s consecutive weeks where managers with Isaiah Likely thought that a big play touchdown, only to see it get wiped off the board. On Thanksgiving night against the Bengals, it was the dramatic fumble at the goal line, and on Sunday, it was an end zone catch that looked like a catch until it was knocked out after he came to the ground.

Don’t get me started on the rules, but we didn’t get any points for it, that much I know.

He did manage to score his first touchdown of the season in the third quarter against the Steelers, but this is feeling familiar: Likely shows enough promise to suck me back in for another season.

We will see if I can quit him in 2026. For Week 15, he’s a streaming option that carries a wide range of outcomes. His 22 routes over the weekend netted six targets and four touches, a far greater rate of involvement than Mark Andrews (36 routes: five targets and one touch), but counting on anything from this passing game is a tough sell right now.

I have Likely ranked behind the Juwan Johnson/Theo Johnson tier at the position: you probably don’t need to take this big of a risk.

Ja’Tavion Sanders | CAR (at NO)

It seems like a random number generator when it comes to who is producing in Carolina these days.

Tetairoa McMillan is a safe bet for looks, but the quality of those looks can be spotty, and that’s given Xavier Legette and, most recently, Jalen Coker chances to produce surprise stat lines.

In theory, that gives a player like Ja’Tavion Sanders a window into producing, but that simply hasn’t been the case (under 35 receiving yards in eight straight and zero touchdowns this season). It could happen in a spot like this, but betting on it carries far more risk than reward.

Jake Ferguson | DAL (vs MIN)

The Jake Ferguson gravy train halted a while ago, and it might be time to jump off completely.

OK, that’s a bit dramatic, but if he played a deeper position, I certainly wouldn’t be chasing the early-season production. His target share has declined in back-to-back weeks and hasn’t eclipsed 20% since Week 7 — a troubling trend for a player currently stuck on the wrong side of touchdown variance.

He has just one score over his past six games after reaching the end zone six times in a four-game stretch, proving regression rarely unfolds neatly. Add in his limited per-catch production — 10.7 yards in 2023, 8.4 last season, and just 7.4 through 13 games this year — and the concerns become even more pronounced.

Ferguson hasn’t cleared 60 receiving yards in a game since Week 3, so if he’s going to continue to be the fourth banana in scoring situations (CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, and Javonte Williams), there really isn’t a ceiling to chase.

Think about it. Unless you’re an avid banana consumer, go to the store and buy four bananas that are all aged the same. By the time one is ready to eat, the other three are hours away from dying. Maybe you can salvage one in a protein shake. The other might be iffy, but toss it in oatmeal, and you probably don’t notice.

But can you save all four? Probably not. That’s Ferguson in terms of scoring equity.

The volume and efficiency (83.3% catch rate this season) keep him inside my top 12 across the board and top 10 in PPR settings, but the odds of his rediscovering his near elite form from early October are low if not zero.

Juwan Johnson | NO (vs CAR)

Juwan Johnson has at least four grabs in four straight games and in six of his past seven. That may not sound like much, but at the tight end position, it’ll work. In fact, there are only five TEs that have an active streak at least that long, and the other four are all lineup locks: Trey McBride, George Kittle, Jake Ferguson, and Brock Bowers.

Johnson clearly isn’t on that level, and he saw what little scoring equity he brings to the table dry up last week due to a pair of gutty touchdown runs from Tyler Shough, but his path to 8-10 PPR points this week and moving forward is pretty clear.

Here’s a great example of a player that can win you your week without winning you your week.

You’re not going to look back on Week 14 and remember Johnson’s 7.8 PPR points with fondness, but there’s a chance that won you the TE position in your matchup, and those sorts of edges matter. Every edge matters this time of year.

You’re not at a high risk of taking a donut at the position, and that counts for something, even if it’s not flashy production that directly carries you to a victory.

Luke Musgrave | GB (at DEN)

Live, it looked like Luka Musgrave made one of the best TE catches of the week against the Bears, but his sprawling attempt was deemed incomplete after replay, and that was the end of the excitement for those rostering him.

For a fifth straight game, he failed to reach 25 receiving yards, and things are only trending away from him with Jayden Reed healthy and Christian Watson ascending.

There’s no point in chasing TE production from an offense that has come to terms with moving the ball without it. Use these struggles from Musgrave as a reminder of just how impactful Tucker Kraft was, and don’t forget about him in drafts this summer.

Mark Andrews | BAL (at CIN)

Simply put, Mark Andrews is a tight end who relies on touchdowns, and he is playing for an offense that is currently struggling to score touchdowns.

He held a 36-22 route edge over Isaiah Likely against the Steelers in Week 14, but he gave us his fourth single-digit effort in terms of receiving yards, his second in a three-game span.

There will be points scored in this game, and the hope is that this Baltimore attack can show some signs of life. If they do, Andrews stands to gain in a big way, and that’s why he’s inside of my top 15 at the position, but it’s nearly impossible to put him much higher due to the lack of form of this passing game as a whole.

Mason Taylor | NYJ (at JAX)

The Jets completed three passes in the first half last week, so if you were checking box scores and saw his two catches for 12 yards, you may not have been aware of just how fortunate you were to have even that much on the stat sheet at intermission.

He finished with targets against the Dolphins, his second most in a game this season, and a reason for long-term optimism. He’s going to finish his rookie season having earned in the range of 80 targets, a major accomplishment given the limitations of this unit.

We can consider him a sleeper for next season, but I’m done doing it week to week this season. Taylor hasn’t had a 20-yard grab since September, and with him not seeing an end zone target in 12 of 13 games, there just isn’t enough of a path for him to pay you off for the risk you’re being asked to take by streaming him.

Mike Gesicki | CIN (vs BAL)

Mike Gesicki made a sneaky great catch against the Bills in the snow last week, where he had a hand between him and the ball, yet controlled it all the way to the ground for his first score of the season.

The idea of Gesicki is sound for fantasy purposes: he plays for a pass-happy offense that almost never asks him to block. It’s a good set-up, but with him accounting for just 16 of 41 TE routes last week, it’s hard to get too excited.

If you want to stream him in and are using this offense as the excuse, I’m not going to fight you on it. The position is largely a wasteland once you get past the first few tiers, and we have plenty of data points when it comes to the league labeling Gesicki was a receiver trapped in a tight end’s body.

That said, his mean production isn’t going to be much better than the names on your wire. Gesicki turned 10 targets into 54 yards in his first two weeks back after missing more than a month, production that included a week against these Ravens.

If you’re stuck, this is a bailout option, not a cheat code that you can count on to repeat his success.

Oronde Gadsden | LAC (at KC)

The bloom is off the rose with Oronde Gadsden at this point.

He was an athletic marvel that we got excited about, with good reason, in the middle of the season when his role peaked, but we are past that now, and he’s nothing more than a run-of-the-mill streamer stuck in a tough matchup.

The big TE has caught just seven of 17 targets thrown his way over the past month, and while there is some big play potential in this profile (13.9 yards per catch), I’d much rather bank on highly efficient looks at this position than hold my breath on a banged-up QB finding my player for chunk plays down the seam.

I’d rather stream either Johnson (Theo or Juwan) if given the opportunity.

Pat Freiermuth | PIT (vs MIA)

We don’t know who is going to be the “featured” tight end on a week-to-week basis, but at this point, I think we can safely assume that it doesn’t really matter.

Week 14 Pittsburgh TE Participation

• Pat Friermuth: 22 routes, 3 targets, 2.9 fantasy points
• Jonnu Smith: 12 routes, 1 target, 0 fantasy points
• Darnell Washington: 10 routes, 1 target, 2.2 fantasy points

It’s been more than a month since Freiermuth reached 20 receiving yards in a game, and he’s earned north of four targets on just one occasion. There are half a dozen tight ends widely available that carry more target and touchdown equity, so there should be no temptation to go dumpster diving this low, even if you still view the Dolphins as a plus-matchup.

Sam LaPorta | DET (at LAR)

“Very, very slim” was how Dan Campbell described the chances of us seeing Sam LaPorta (back) again in 2025, and that means you can safely move on from the third-year tight end.

LaPorta still has another year left on his deal, and with his age-25 season coming up for a team that wants to chase annual success, it shouldn’t be a surprise that the organization is proceeding with caution.

Brock Wright will continue to fill the TE role on this offense when healthy. However, prevailing wisdom suggests that their three elite skill-position players (Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, and Jahmyr Gibbs) will continue to do the heavy lifting, with the TE position as a whole more of an afterthought/complementary piece.

T.J. Hockenson | MIN (at DAL)

T.J. Hockenson found the end zone on Sunday, his third of the season, on a weird play where the Commanders seemed to decide to see if they could tackle him without using their hands.

Bold move.

He pinballed into the end zone and saved your bacon in the process, but you need to understand that you got bailed out. He had just one catch for the game, other than the score, and even more concerning than that was the fact that three Minnesota tight ends had a reception on the first drive.

Josh Oliver found the end zone twice in the 31-0 win, and if this job isn’t fully Hockenson’s, what exactly are you chasing in terms of upside?

This Dallas matchup isn’t as friendly as it was a month ago, and this Vikings offense is just as broken as it was a week ago: don’t get cute and put your season in the hands of maybe the third option in a J.J. McCarthy-led offense.

Theo Johnson | NYG (vs WAS)

Theo Johnson matched a season high with eight targets in Week 13 against the Patriots, and while he only recorded 5.9 of the 12.9 expected PPR points, there was an end zone target in his hands that could have (should have, if you ask him) made his stat line much better.

If he comes down with that catch, it would have been his fourth time in five games clearing 10 fantasy points, and he’d be a popular streaming name. Due to the drop and the Week 14 bye, some of the momentum in his favor has slowed, but if you’re streaming the position, you could do worse than an athletic marvel in an offense that lacks a true target hierarchy.

Four tight ends have reached 18 PPR points in this matchup this season, and while that outcome would surprise me, 11-14 points wouldn’t, and that’s useful at the TE position in a major way.

Travis Kelce | KC (vs LAC)

This is shaping up to be an awfully sad ending to a great career.

Travis Kelce made just one catch on Sunday night (his first single catch performance of the season), and his drops have a weird way of being magnified by him essentially handing the other team the ball.

The future Hall of Famer has under 50 yards in three straight games and no more than six targets in four of his past five. The connection with Patrick Mahomes hasn’t been the same all season, and with hope for this season fading, it’s fair to ask if we have already seen our last highly productive Kelce game.

My instinct on that front would be “no,” and he still finished Week 14 second on the Chiefs in targets: he simply did nothing with them. He scored against these Chargers in Brazil back in Week 1, and if he can do so again, he’s likely to find himself inside the top 10 for the week.

That’s a bit optimistic for me, but I do think he remains above the streaming tier: you just grin-and-bear it, hoping that he can cash in a high-value look at Kansas City trees to hang onto their playoff hopes.

Trey McBride | ARI (at HOU)

Trey McBride looked destined for another huge game with two catches and 45 yards on the first drive over the weekend against the Rams, but things went sideways in a hurry for the Cards, and their elite TE felt it.

After that opening script, he managed just 13 yards (three catches) the rest of the way as the Rams cruised to the easy win.

Nothing to see here. You rub some dirt on it and move on.

The Texans are, of course, another brutal matchup. Still, McBride has been a problem in seemingly every type of matchup this season, so don’t overreact to one down week (and for the record, I think you could sign at least a handful of your leaguemates up for 10.8 PPR points from the tight end position now and they’d take it, so try not to complain too loudly).

This is the Jacoby Brissett show the rest of the way, and that means McBride sits atop the position ranks without a real challenger.

Tyler Warren | IND (at SEA)

The Colts wanted Tyler Warren out there more often than anybody following the Daniel Jones injury, and that’s a good sign moving forward, even if the 15 yards on six targets left a bad taste in your mouth.

If Indy is going to save this season, it’s pretty clearly going to take some special work from their rookie tight end. We saw Warren play off ultra-productive Jonathan Taylor weeks into the season (he had a three-game TD streak that was engulfed in an eight-game run of 4+ receptions), and I tend to believe that is going to be the script moving forward.

Warren had just the one catch for two yards from Riley Leonard last week (30 routes run), but we have plenty of proof that this team is willing to be creative with a player they view as an offensive weapon more than a tight end, and that’s enough for me to lock him in as a starter in all formats.

Zach Ertz | WAS (at NYG)

The season is over for Zach Ertz after an ACL injury in the third quarter, and you have to wonder about the career trajectory of the 35-year-old.

He was a second-round pick in 2013 and has played in 181 regular-season games, plenty of wear and tear for the position. He wasn’t a high-upside play this season, but before Sunday, he had at least four grabs in five straight, including 10 against the Broncos in Week 13.

Maybe we see second-year Ben Sinnott finally get a chance to show us what he is capable of, but that’s more of a ‘study and learn for next season’ situation than it is one to stream with your season on the line.

It was a tough injury to see over the weekend, and our already slim TE pool shrinks by one during a critical part of the season.