I’m a big believer in value and that no player is ever really off my draft board — everyone has a price. That said, the price on “my guys” matters less.
These are the players I’m betting on in a big way — players I’d reach for and consider offering up naming rights to my firstborn for. Players that I have highlighted AND circled on my cheatsheet as I stroll into my draft room. Without further ado, here are my guys for the 2025 fantasy football season.
Kyle Soppe’s Top Players to Draft in Fantasy Football in 2025
Nico Collins, WR, Houston Texans
From the department of redundancy, I’m in on Collins — if you couldn’t tell.
- Fantasy Football Insights: Nico Collins Set To Wear The Crown
- Fantasy Football Rankings: Why It Is Close To Impossible To Reach For Houston Texans WR Nico Collins
Collins is being drafted as a fringe first-rounder per our Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator, and that means my ownership of him is going to flirt with 100%.
I have Bijan Robinson ranked a tick ahead of him in my overalls, so there’s a world in which I don’t land Collins, but in those situations, I’ll be looking to get active in the trade market to give myself a chance at adding him to the roster anyway.
If you want to see the advanced math and pretty graphics, I encourage you to grab your favorite beverage and lock in on the articles above. Instead of spitting those figures back at you, just know that timing is everything.
Is it possible that, on a per-game basis, Collins falls short of my insane expectations? Of course. In fact, it’s likely.
But he does close the fantasy season with three straight weather-proof games, two against bottom-eight units a year ago in YPA on deep passes and a finale against a Chargers defense that, while stingy in a lot of regards, did allow five receivers to clear 25 PPR points against them in 2024.
If I’m wrong for the first three months, but you make the playoffs and Collins drags you to the finish line, I’m still considering that a win. As long as he can stay on the field — a risk for every player in this game of constant car crashes — I’m comfortable with my mental stability being tied to Houston’s alpha receiver.
Bucky Irving, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
It’s never comfortable to “buy high”, especially when the offensive coordinator from a breakout season moves on, but the production profile is deserving of the steam he is getting this summer — probably more.
Adrian Peterson was an alien in his day, and there’s nothing you can say to convince me otherwise. He broke all metrics as a rookie in 2007, so I decided to look at some of the fantasy Hall of Famers since then and what their statistical output looked like during their introduction to the NFL.
- Jonathan Taylor: 22.3% production over expectation, 0.78 fantasy points per rush, 36.6% of carries gained five-plus yards
- Todd Gurley: 20.5% production over expectation, 0.74 fantasy points per rush, 30.1% of carries gained five-plus yards
- Bucky Irving: 13.8% production over expectation, 0.77 fantasy points per rush, 41.1% of carries gained five-plus yards
- Saquon Barkley: 9.6% production over expectation, 0.75 fantasy points per rush, 30.3% of carries gained five-plus yards
- Bijan Robinson: 0.8% production below expectation, 0.55 fantasy points per rush, 35.5% of carries gained five-plus yards
Will the mid-to-late Round 2 price tag on Irving, which we are being asked to pay this summer, be the cheapest we see over the next few years?
I’m not going to blindly project Irving to sustain what he gave us over his last six fully healthy games (if I did: 21.7 PPG, essentially a half-point behind what Barkley did during his historic 2024 campaign), that would be irresponsible.
What I will say is that I don’t think the spike in production was a fluke. Even if there is a learning curve to work through early on, given the coaching changes, Irving could be fantasy’s highest-scoring skill player when it matters most for us.
- Week 13: vs. Cardinals
- Week 14: vs. Saints
- Week 15: vs. Falcons
- Week 16: at Panthers
- Week 17: at Dolphins
- Week 18: vs. Panthers (if needed)
The last six weeks of the regular season line up well for the Buccaneers’ rusher.
Chris Olave, WR, New Orleans Saints
The nine missed games last season only tell part of the negative story. Olave was an early-round investment that was unavailable for you during the second half of the season, but he was, at times, more harmful to your success when he was on the field in 2024 — he had four games with under 15 receiving yards and only one touchdown.
There’s certainly a burn-me-twice feel to the Olave profile entering this season, especially with the offensive keys being handed over to Tyler Shough, a second-round pick out of Louisville who will turn 26 years of age in September.
Shough is going to be the Day 1 starter, and there really isn’t much of a safety net. That’s a terrifying proposition for a QB who completed under 62% of his passes over his final three collegiate seasons and is being labeled as the perfect leader of a tanking team in 2025.
A Chris Olave chart pic.twitter.com/VPTkfsoSs1
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) June 9, 2025
And that’s the root of the dip in ADP. The Olave question is simple, though it can carry a bit of a complex answer. How much do you trust Shough?
That question is straightforward, but as long as he is even remotely competent (I’m OK with giving Kellen Moore, a head coach with seven years of experience on the offensive side of the ball — not to mention 14,667 yards and 142 touchdowns through the air during his collegiate playing career at Boise State), it may not matter.
I wanted to examine the per-catch production of the top pass catchers historically when playing alongside poor quarterback play. If you think Shough will be more than that, then you don’t need me to sell you. You’re already grabbing Olave as your WR3, the high-end of the expectations that our Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator has shown.
NFL Total Points Per Game
- 2000-06: 41.76 PPG
- 2007-24: 45.10 PPG
With the scoring boom starting in 2007, that’s where I began. Data from before then isn’t going to tell us much, as the game wasn’t as open and featured fewer fantasy points for players across the board. From here, I used PFSN’s QB+ grading metric to find the worst seasons of the 537 instances in which a QB appeared in at least 10 games.
Shough could be terrible and not register an “F” grade for us. That is a unique company. JaMarcus Russell, Blaine Gabbert, and Trent Edwards are some of the 17 names that earned a failing grade. With Moore calling the shots, an indoor track, and some talent around him, I don’t think it’s crazy to rule out an “F” season.
So let’s move on to D-minus grades. Let’s be clear — this type of season would be deemed a disappointment by any measure, even for a player like Shough who enters his first season with little in the way of expectations.
It’s not a hot take to say that Olave is the clear WR1 in this offense. In that vein, I took a look at how the top option did, on a per-catch basis, during these D-seasons.
That’s on average, 2.79 fantasy points per catch. For context, that’s in the Drake London, Amon-Ra St Brown, and Rashee Rice (in a limited sample) neighborhood from a season ago.
To get ahead of things, no, I’m not drafting Olave in that tier of star receiver that you’re locking into lineups for 17 weeks and moving on. I am willing to jump up a half-round if needed to secure Olave at this discounted price, and I am happy with my investment.
Chris Olave in some pretty pretty good company, available at pick 65 by the way… pic.twitter.com/lVk4pzgqjF
— Willie Knows Ball (@WillieKnowsBall) June 23, 2025
Even if Shough is replacement level or worse, Olave’s price tag — for me — is too cheap for a player whose talent we trust and volume should be locked in. The data above suggests that we don’t need an overly efficient season, we just need raw volume, and given how this New Orleans offense is put together, why wouldn’t we project that for their WR1?
By pulling on this thread, you’ll notice that 75-80 catches would put Olave in the 210-225-point range for the season, the exact spot where Jakobi Meyers, a receiver with less raw ability and terrible quarterback play, finished 2024 (WR19 in total points and WR20 on a per-game basis).
Khalil Shakir, WR, Buffalo Bills
Guys like Collins and Irving are going to be the headliners if you follow this list and win a title, but I find players like Shakir are the ones who are underappreciated. I don’t think Shakir is likely to see his name on the list of top single-week scorers this season, or any season, but how often is he going to burn you? Rarely.
He’s finished as a top-25 receiver in nine of his past 16 games, a rate that matches DeVonta Smith and is well ahead of DK Metcalf’s (6-of-16), two volatile receivers going 3-plus rounds ahead of Buffalo’s slot machine.
The argument isn’t that Shakir is going to outscore either of those players for the season, it’s that, at price, his average impact on your lineup is more advantageous because he’s doing what you expect and allowing your big dogs to determine your matchup.
The Bills have yet to land themselves a bona fide WR1 and, to my eye, that hasn’t changed entering 2025. What has encouraged me about the upside case for Shakir, a fringe seventh-round pick, is how he performs when his best is required.
- 2023 Wild Card vs. PIT: 100% catch rate, TD
- 2023 Divisional Round vs. KC: 77.8% catch rate, TD
- 2024 Wild Card vs. DEN: 100% catch rate, targeted on first two passes
- 2024 Divisional Round vs. BAL: 85.7% catch rate, 34-yard reception
- 2024 AFC Championship at KC: 85.7% catch rate, 24-yard catch
You tell me where Josh Allen is most comfortable going when the going gets tough.
Shakir is the type of glue piece that seemingly every successful fantasy team has. Collins and Irving will win you weeks, but archetypes like Shakir will allow you to tread water as you wait for the slate-breaking play by your stars.
Isiah Pacheco, RB, Kansas City Chiefs
It’s widely believed that the Kansas City Chiefs will continue to play slowly in the regular season and win games at a high rate.
Yes, Patrick Mahomes is the straw that stirs this drink. Still, if we are giving him reasonably modest numbers, the way for them to grind out wins is via the running games, something that a healthy version of Pacheco, entering his age-26 season, has proven capable of leading.
Just 12 months ago, Pacheco was being considered a fringe RB1 by most, and even lower by others (hand raised). In 2023, he became just the seventh running back drafted in the seventh round or later to have a season with nine touchdowns, 200 carries, and 40 catches — joining Arian Foster, Austin Ekeler, James Robinson, Fred Jackson, Peyton Hillis, and Earnest Graham.
Sure, it’s a cherry-picked example — but the underlying point stands. We’re talking about a uniquely talented player with a surprisingly low draft cost. And if there’s one coach in the league I trust to unlock that kind of upside, it’s Andy Reid.
Screw it, Isiah Pacheco highlights! 😤pic.twitter.com/kNEi34mlRI
— Brad Henson Productions (@BradHensonPro) November 27, 2024
Pacheco averages 4.5 yards per carry for his career. With an 87.3% catch rate, there’s a level of versatility here that I believe still has the potential to elevate Pacheco to a top-15 producer in this league.
Kareem Hunt’s modest contract doesn’t scare me in the least. We saw Pacheco be trusted with 41 touches in his two healthy games to open last season, a usage pattern that has the potential to return this year.
Injury risk comes with the territory at the running back position — that’s a given. What sets Pacheco apart is his access to a high-powered offense and frequent positive game scripts, a luxury most backs don’t enjoy.
Yes, he disappointed last season, but just as breakout performances don’t always repeat, down years shouldn’t lead to automatic dismissal. Don’t let last season’s letdown stop you from giving Pacheco another shot this summer.
Caleb Williams, QB, Chicago Bears
I want my fantasy decisions to be supported by the “real” NFL teams. No, they don’t care how any of our teams do, but the Bears are committed to Williams producing at a high level, and if we draft him, that means we have a common interest.
Chicago used the No. 1 pick in 2024 to draft quarterback Williams, then grabbed wide receiver Rome Odunze just eight picks later, aiming to raise their offensive floor for years to come.
But they didn’t stop there — instead of settling with that dynamic duo, the Bears doubled down in 2025, using all three of their top picks on offensive weapons, including two top-40 selections: tight end Colston Loveland and wide receiver Luther Burden, both expected to become key targets for Williams.
From Week 5 on last season, Williams’ 17-game pace was just over 3,600 passing yards and 536 yards on the ground. He has a real chance to hit both of those thresholds this season, and that would make him the fourth QB to post such a campaign within his first two years in the NFL since 2000, joining the likes of Kyler Murray, Cam Newton, and Deshaun Watson.
RELATED: Caleb Williams Fantasy Profile — On The QB1 Radar in Year 2?
It’s tough to get a read on the Green Bay Packers’ defense after releasing Jaire Alexander, and the San Francisco 49ers look like they’ll continue to struggle defensively in 2025. Conveniently for Chicago, those two teams appear in three of their final four fantasy matchups — a favorable late-season stretch.
Factor in a schedule that includes divisional games against Jordan Love and Jared Goff, plus matchups with Jayden Daniels, Lamar Jackson, Aaron Rodgers, Joe Burrow, and Jalen Hurts, and it’s easy to envision plenty of positive game scripts. That sets up Williams with a real shot at finishing as a top-10 fantasy quarterback.
Given the depth at quarterback this year, drafting Caleb Williams as your only QB is a perfectly viable strategy. You can easily stream someone for his Week 5 bye. There will be plenty of options available, with Michael Penix Jr., Jordan Love, and Aaron Rodgers being the only other notable quarterbacks off that week.
If Williams doesn’t pan out, you haven’t sunk much draft capital, so your season isn’t sunk either. But if he lives up to his potential, you’ll have struck gold late in the draft and likely built a stacked roster around him.
Jake Ferguson, TE, Dallas Cowboys
The TE pool is deep this season, and when I don’t land a Tier 1 option, I find myself simply letting the field dictate which option I’m taking at the very end. In executing this plan, I’m pleasantly surprised by how often Ferguson is sitting on the board after all of my opponents are well past addressing the position.
From the start of 2023 to Dak Prescott’s injury last season, the Cowboys averaged a league-high 37.6 passes per game, and with Fergy’s on-field target share increasing each season up to this point, he’s a reasonable opportunity target at the very least. But is there more?
He came out of the slot for 45.6% of his routes in 2024, a major increase from the 32% he produced the year prior and something that has my attention in a big way with George Pickens profiling as a perimeter-centric threat.
Thinking about this catch from Jake Ferguson this morning pic.twitter.com/TtybsScMvW
— FergSZN (@FergSZN) August 3, 2025
If I can get cheap access to Dallas’ pass game, I’m interested. Not only is this a wide-open offense, but they don’t have any real weather concerns from Halloween to Christmas Eve.
With a healthy Prescott in 2023, Ferguson ran 30.5 routes per game, and if he can turn that into five to seven targets weekly, I’ll take my chances with his return on investment over most of the tight ends being drafted in the fifth round or later.
