Michael Pittman Jr. is just a year removed from being one of the best values in fantasy football. He’s largely an afterthought, even having fallen behind teammate Josh Downs in average draft position (ADP). Are fantasy managers sleeping on the Indianapolis Colts’ wide receiver this season?
Michael Pittman Jr. Fantasy Outlook
Let’s rewind to the 2022 season. Coming off a strong sophomore campaign that saw him average 14.0 fantasy points per game, Pittman is going in the early third round of fantasy drafts…and that’s too late. He is MY GUY. I want him everywhere. This is an ascending young talent poised to leap from solid WR2 to full-blown WR1. Of course, that didn’t happen.
Pittman was by no means bad in 2022. He was just the same, averaging 13.5 PPG. He was fine, but he didn’t provide the positive return on investment that justified my overly confident belief in him.
But the thing is, everything that made me so bullish on him was there. He saw a target share of over 25%. He caught 99 passes. He was the clear WR1. The peripherals checked out. Unfortunately, the Colts were awful. His quarterbacks were horrible. As a result, his efficiency cratered, preventing him from breaking through.
In 2023, Pittman’s ADP cratered. He was a seventh or eighth-round pick. An afterthought. And regrettably, I abandoned him. This guy that I was so into when he was a third-rounder was suddenly off my radar, going four rounds later. Bad process if I believed in the talent (which I did).
Pittman became one of the best values in fantasy in 2023, averaging 15.6 PPG. He became the guy I thought I was getting in 2023 at a much cheaper price, and I missed it.
Initially, I went all in on Pittman in 2024, again chasing my previous fail. But slowly, I pulled back on Pittman due to the Anthony Richardson situation, and he became a full fade. I finally got it right!
Pittman was a disaster last season. His target share dipped to 24.3%. He was only targeted on 23.4% of his routes run. He averaged 1.7 yards per route run and 7.3 yards per target. Those numbers ranked 57th and 78th, respectively.
While Pittman’s role didn’t necessarily change, his volume did, as the Colts were extremely run-heavy with Richardson. But was Pittman really that bad?
Pittman averaged 8.8 PPG with Richardson last season, compared to 12.7 PPG with Joe Flacco. Of course, Flacco is gone, but the point is more that Richardson games really held Pittman back, as the young quarterback is incapable of completing passes and leads to lower passing volume.
At the same time, Pittman was outplayed by teammate Josh Downs. So, perhaps it’s a little of both. Pittman and the offense are to blame.
Another huge issue was that Pittman hurt his back last season. The injury was so bad that he was set to be placed on IR, ending his season. A couple of days later, he changed his mind and played through the injury for the remainder of the year. It was abundantly clear that the injury impacted his play.
Michael Pittman Jr. making this play with a low-back fracture is pretty crazy. pic.twitter.com/4Ti9DzMNpn
— Colts Film Room (@ColtsFilmRoom) June 4, 2025
So, we have a wide receiver still in his prime who has seasons of 14.0, 13.5, 15.6, and 10.4 PPG over the past four years. Which one do you think is the outlier?
This season, the Colts still have Richardson, but they also signed Daniel Jones, who I project will make the majority of the starts for this team. Jones is not an NFL-caliber starting quarterback, but he has proven capable of getting the ball to his top receivers. He can complete passes and is much more of a stationary quarterback than Richardson.
I am very high on Downs this year, but Pittman is also on my list. They’re both way too cheap.
Pittman has three seasons finishing no lower than overall WR22. Yet, entering his age-28 season, he’s valued as if he’s cooked. He’s being valued as if 2024 is the norm and the 2021-2023 seasons never happened.
The Colts do not have a clear third option behind their top two receivers in the passing game. Rookie TE Tyler Warren could be that guy, but he should not be viewed as a threat to either Downs or Pittman.
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Pittman’s ADP is a staggering WR50. Last year, he battled injury and dreadful quarterback play in a disastrous season, finishing as the overall WR44. I struggle to see any sequence of events outside of an injury that actually takes him off the field that would prevent Pittman from at least meeting his ADP expectations.
I have Pittman ranked as my WR47, and even that is probably too low. But it’s still high enough to put me ahead of the consensus and make it more likely I land Pittman on my teams. Pittman and Downs are both trending toward “my guys” territory.
Dan Fornek’s Michael Pittman Jr. Fantasy Projection
Michael Pittman Jr. had been an ascending player in the Colts’ offense before 2024. From 2021 to 2023, Pittman averaged 142.0 targets, 98.7 receptions, 1,053.0 receiving yards and 4.7 touchdowns per season. He established himself as a reliable WR2 in fantasy, culminating in a career-best 15.6 PPR points per game in 2023, which was suitable for a WR14 finish.
Unfortunately, the bottom fell out for Pittman in 2024. Pittman had the fewest targets (111), receptions (69), receiving yards (808) and touchdowns (3) since his rookie season. His WR44 in PPR points per game (WR44) was also the worst since his rookie year. A back injury certainly didn’t help, but Pittman was still on the field for 16 games. The bigger issue for Pittman was his fit with Anthony Richardson under center.
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In 11 games with Richardson under center, Pittman averaged just 9.0 PPR points per game. In five games without him, that number jumped to 13.7. The Colts tried to use Pittman further down the field (career-high 11.0 average depth of target), but the results weren’t there.
Neither Daniel Jones nor Richardson is a good quarterback, but with Jones, Pittman would likely return to a role he thrived in as the first read in an RPO-heavy passing attack. Given that uncertainty and the fact that Josh Downs and Tyler Warren have been featured in the offense throughout training camp, it is hard to rank Pittman higher than a WR3 heading into 2025.
