The Atlanta Falcons have been investing on the offensive side of the ball for years, and 2025 appears to be a season in which they can take flight. Due to the depth of the quarterback position, Michael Penix Jr. isn’t on the radar of most redraft fantasy football managers, but is there a world in which he leverages a friendly playoff schedule and impacts the final month of the season?
Michael Penix’s Fantasy Outlook
This game we love can be goofy. Some weeks it feels like all of the stars are unstoppable, and others it feels like this sport is a random number generator in terms of where the fantasy points are assigned. Case in point?
From Weeks 15 to 17 last season, with championships on the line, Jared Goff was the per-game QB1, Drew Lock was QB8, Bryce Young was a top-12 QB, Mac Jones was more valuable than Jalen Hurts, and Cooper Rush was one of the 27 quarterbacks that ranked ahead of C.J. Stroud.
I’m not saying that you have to rank Penix as a top-15 option at the position. I don’t have him in that range. What I am saying is that having an open mind at all times is common in those who have fantasy success. Managers who are willing to be flexible and reactive are far more successful than those who cling to outdated preseason strategies, which take far too long.
Every Michael Penix Jr. passing attempt of 20+ yards. pic.twitter.com/QjrAljSQ55
— Nick Penticoff (@NickPenticoff) June 13, 2025
Could the second-year QB provide a spark at the perfect time? Even if you don’t believe that he will, there’s a real chance that rostering him this winter will be a savvy strategic move, if for no other reason than to limit the options your opponent has to consider in the win-or-go-home nature of the fantasy playoffs.
Falcons Closing Schedule
- Week 15 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Week 16 at Arizona Cardinals
- Week 17 vs. Los Angeles Rams
- Week 18 vs. New Orleans Saints
The little game film we got from Penix a season ago showed, to me, a QB who wasn’t scared. He posted a 10.2 aDOT in his three starts, and we saw him grow in real time.
- First half: 52.5% complete, 0.5 TD/INT, 66.5 passer rating
- Second half: 65.9% complete, 2.0 TD/INT, 96.1 passer rating
His rep count on the professional stage is limited, and there will be learning curve moments as 2025 progresses, but it is important to remember that this isn’t Anthony Richardson 2.0 in terms of a lack of high-level reps. Penix was on the college football circuit for six years, the last two coming at Washington, where he threw for over 9,500 yards and had 67 touchdowns against 19 interceptions.
MORE: Free Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
Expecting anything close to those video game numbers this season isn’t wise, but neither is counting him out. I’m utilizing the “watch” feature on platforms that have that functionality for Penix. There is upside bubbling beneath the surface here, and there is certainly enough talent around him to help him realize that potential at the optimal time.
This is precisely the type of profile I don’t mind gambling on if you want to get creative in a Superflex setting or ultra-deep formats.
Dan Fornek’s Michael Penix Jr. Fantasy Projection
One of the biggest shocks of the 2024 NFL Draft happened when the Atlanta Falcons drafted Michael Penix Jr. with the eighth overall pick after signing Kirk Cousins to a four-year, $180 million contract just weeks before in free agency. Cousins was coming off his Achilles injury, but Penix was considered an NFL-ready quarterback after his five-year collegiate career at Indiana and Washington.
The move ultimately proved to be the right one. Cousins struggled with consistency throughout the 2024 season and was eventually benched in the final three games with the playoffs on the line. The results were mostly mixed.
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Penix completed just 58% of his passes for 737 yards, three touchdowns, and three interceptions. He had just one start with more than 12.0 fantasy points in Week 18. However, the short stint as a starter allowed him to show his ridiculously powerful arm and an excellent connection with Drake London at wide receiver.
Undoubtedly, Penix will be the Falcons’ starter in 2025. He will get a full season behind a strong offensive line and with a set of pass-catching weapons (Drake London, Darnell Mooney, Bijan Robinson, and Kyle Pitts) that can make a lot of quarterbacks look good.
There will be mistakes and missed throws, but Penix can be a high-end QB2 with a weekly QB1 upside as soon as 2025.
