The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key Detroit Lions players heading into their matchup with the Kansas City Chiefs to help you craft a winning lineup.
Jared Goff, QB
How crazy is it that Jared Goff has more games this season with a completion percentage over 79% than games in which he doesn’t?
The matchup with the Chiefs (under 12 fantasy points allowed to the opposing starting QB in three of their past four games) is obviously a different beast than the Bengals he laid to rest last week, and that is what I’ve got Goff on the outside looking in at my top 12, even if he shares a tier with those just inside the cut.
My concern is the league-high 45.9% pressure rate from the defending AFC champs. Detroit could look to beat that with the running game and probably should. If they don’t, we could be talking about betting on Goff while on the move, something that hasn’t exactly played into our favor recently (four out-of-pocket TD passes over his past 29 regular-season games).
Maybe quick passes to the running backs and Amon-Ra St. Brown are enough to get Goff over 300 yards and put him in the starting mix, but I’d rather take my chances on either QB in the Colts/Cardinals game or Patrick Mahomes on the other side of the ball in this one.
David Montgomery, RB
David Montgomery was the feel-good story of Week 5 with a multi-TD effort and his sister in attendance. He’s rushed for four scores in the past four weeks, but the concerns I had going into the preseason remain: he’s pretty clearly the RB2 in Detroit.
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Jahmyr Gibbs has nearly doubled him up in touches this season when the score is within a single possession, and the lack of a versatile role puts the veteran RB at risk (exactly one target in four straight games).
I view Montgomery as a bet on the Lions more than anything. His 10-14 touch role without many routes up for grabs comes with plenty of risk, but if there’s a touchdown-reliant player I want stock of, it’s him.
I’m playing Montgomery this week over Jaylen Warren (vs. CLE) and Chase Edmonds (at GB), given the matchups, but prefer the upside that Kenneth Walker (at JAX) provides with a similar touch expectation.
Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR
Maybe we can give the Lions one week of grace to overhaul their coordinator positions?
If you do that, St. Brown is pacing for 132 catches and 1,539 yards, huge numbers that feel obtainable if you turn on a Detroit game for five minutes. His usage patterns are all more or less in line with what we saw from him as a featured part of Ben Johnson’s offense a season ago, but his efficiency is spiking.
Through five weeks, his yards per route run are up 17.8% from 2021.
Was Johnson a limiting force on St. Brown’s potential?
I’m kidding, but with Detroit putting Jameson Williams back into the wind sprinter role, the middle field is St. Brown’s to dominate. Personally, I prefer Puka Nacua the rest of the way. Still, it wouldn’t take a crazy argument to pitch Detroit’s ace as the best PPR receiver in the business moving forward, and I suspect he’s a first-round pick in August for 2023.
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Sam LaPorta, TE
Sam LaPorta got into the end zone for the first time this season on Sunday in Cincinnati, and it won’t be the last time a player gets right against the Bengals.
Even with the context of the matchup mentioned, it was good to see. We know that LaPorta is a highly efficient player (12 catches on 14 targets over the past three games), and it’s been good to see him add a little spice to things (27+ yard gain in three of five games).
The nature of this Lions offense is such that their tertiary option will change on a weekly basis. That’s a pain, but less so at the tight end position.
You’re starting LaPorta every week, and you’re gaining on many of your opponents in the process.
