As the 2025 NFL season kicks off, the strategic decisions that define fantasy football are once again at the forefront for managers. A marquee NFC North matchup between the Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers presents a series of compelling questions for your Week 1 lineup.
This breakdown will help you navigate the pivotal start-or-sit choices in a divisional clash filled with fantasy implications
Jared Goff, QB
Well, we won’t have to wait long to get a litmus test on life without Ben Johnson for Jared Goff and this Lions offense.
The Packers may not boast an elite defense (11th in our Defense+ grading last season), but what they do well makes this an ultra-interesting, potentially informative spot for the new coaching staff in Detroit.
In 2024, Green Bay was the best team at creating pressure when they elected to blitz, doing so on 49.5% of their opportunities, a rate that was more than a percentage point higher than any other unit and nearly nine points above the league average.
Jared Goff bangs to Amon Ra St. Brown for the TD. pic.twitter.com/Gt5xxgo2p1
— SM Highlights (@SMHighlights1) November 3, 2024
That would have undone Goff in previous seasons, but he averaged a career-high 6.8 yards per pressured pass a season ago (the eighth-best mark in the NFL and a second straight season of improvement).
Against the Packers specifically, he completed 10 of 17 passes (58.8%, against the rest of the NFL: 52.7%) with a pair of touchdowns when under stress. Now, the million-dollar question: nature or nurture? Was his success a result of development or a scheme?
At this moment, it is impossible to know. We can guess (I lean in, Goff is still a viable option in the post-Johnson era due to the weapons at his disposal), but that’s all it is until we get some data points. I don’t know about you, but I’m not in the business of guessing if I can avoid it, especially not in the first week of the season.
I’m passing on Detroit’s signal-caller in this spot, preferring his opposing number, Johnson’s current pupil, Caleb Williams, and matchup decisions like Trevor Lawrence (vs. CAR).
David Montgomery, RB
There’s a very good chance that Montgomery’s late fifth-round ADP will not match his end-of-season value. The problem, however, is that it’s impossible to know if he will be a steal or a bust.
Over the past two years, only 13 running backs have averaged more PPR points per game than Montgomery, and only seven of them have played more games than the Detroit Lions veteran.
He relies on touchdowns in a way that makes most fantasy managers uncomfortable, but in this high-powered offense, he has been a fantasy printing press since changing NFC North teams, with 25 rushing touchdowns in 28 regular-season games.
For whatever reason, the Lions have leaned heavily on Montgomery against the Green Bay Packers. In four games against Green Bay, he has out-touched Jahmyr Gibbs 27-8 in the red area. If that usage continues, Montgomery will again return a massive profit on his ADP.
READ MORE: Soppe’s Week 1 Fantasy Football Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em: Analysis for Every Player in Every Game
However, the window for that dominance might be closing. In the 2023-24 season, Montgomery averaged 3.6 red zone touches per game, well ahead of the explosive Gibbs at 2.7. In 2024-25, that gap shrunk meaningfully, with Montgomery’s average falling to 3.7 while Gibbs’ rose to 3.4.
That is still a significant number and encouraging at face value, but with the rate slipping, the writing could be on the wall for more of a boom-or-bust season as Gibbs continues to explore his elite potential.
These concerns are significant enough to consider selling Montgomery shares, but not enough to forecast a complete decline just yet. The Packers ranked 20th in red zone defense a season ago, and his role is not vanishing.
I’m fine with plugging him into lineups for Week 1 while chasing a touchdown. But this situation needs to be monitored very closely. If the team’s offensive creativity left town with Ben Johnson this offseason, Montgomery is the player I expect to see the most dramatic dip in value.
To get ahead of it: if Montgomery gets only 11 touches in this game but scores twice, I will be selling him to the highest bidder and feeling good about it.
Jahmyr Gibbs, RB
Gibbs had a legitimate case for being the top overall pick in fantasy drafts this summer, and there is no reason to believe he will be anything less than elite this season. The expectation is that even more of the workload will be shifted onto his plate.
What is the worst-case scenario? That he simply produces the same video game numbers despite an increase in touches?
After all, 1,929 yards and 20 touchdowns can hardly be considered a bad thing.
He found the end zone in both games against the Green Bay Packers in 2023-24, but none of his 33 touches in those contests gained more than 20 yards. That almost feels like a win for the defense. Green Bay’s unit also held him to just 41 receiving yards across those two games on his seven receptions. Could he be slightly inefficient, by his own incredibly lofty standards, in the season opener?
I don’t think the Packers have the blueprint to stop him, because I don’t believe one exists. However, in terms of him breaking the slate in Week 1, those past successes for a divisional rival are noteworthy. For the main slate, I’ll take the other Tier 1 running backs in DFS contests, but that’s splitting the thinnest of hairs.
Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR
You drafted Amon-Ra St. Brown in the first round this summer, understanding that there could be some bumps in the road.
Jameson Williams’ development is a focal point. Sam LaPorta has shown the ability to produce efficiently, and Detroit might have the most dynamic backfield in the sport.
Oh, and their offensive mastermind is now employed by a divisional rival.
15 minutes of Amon-Ra St. Brown highlights to celebrate his 25th birthday 🥳
🎥: @NFL pic.twitter.com/SW3M0tgCL1
— St. Brown Podcast (@StBrownPodcast) October 24, 2024
Those are real concerns I don’t care about in the season opener. St. Brown is a gifted player regardless of who builds out the game plan, and the Packers have shown zero ability to slow him down. Over their past four meetings, the star wideout has produced 21.6% over expectations with 26 catches for 250 yards and two scores on his 31 targets.
I don’t think there’s a great chance he is the top scoring WR for the week, but the chances of Green Bay slowing him to the point where you have 2-3 better options are far more unlikely. St. Brown stands alone atop the list of 100-yard receiving games since 2023 with 13 and should be viewed as just as much of an elite option sans Johnson as he was with him.
Jameson Williams, WR
Jared Goff leads the NFL with 21 games of 250+ passing yards since the beginning of 2023, and while a new set of hands is pressing the buttons this year, I still expect this to be an efficient offense that supports two pass catchers weekly.
We are assuming that Amon-Ra St. Brown will deliver the fantasy goods weekly, meaning Sam LaPorta and Jameson Williams are stuck in an interesting spot. There will be some weeks where all three stars reward you, but the Packers were a top-5 defense in both yards per play and pass EPA, making that a tough sell in the season opener.
I’m inclined to favor Williams over LaPorta in this specific spot, mainly because Green Bay allowed the ninth-highest completion percentage on passes thrown 15+ yards downfield last season. Williams has only faced the Green and Gold twice over the past two seasons, but his seven grabs have totaled 131 yards, and that’s enough upside to buy into this week.
I like him this week, but I believe Williams will be a weekly evaluation that we gain confidence in evaluating as time passes. We will get an answer for how differently this offense functions under John Morton.
Sam LaPorta, TE
LaPorta saw some fantasy regression in his second season after standing out as a rookie, but not all steps backwards look the same, and I’d argue that 2024 was more a lateral move than anything for the pride of Iowa.
In 2024, his PPR PPG dipped by 22.5%, but his points scored per target actually ticked up by 5.5%. We are, of course, in a volume-driven world, and I need to see LaPorta return to his target earning ways before considering him a real threat to be a Tier 1 producer at the position.
LaPorta lost enough around the fringes in all the small areas by just enough to impact his bottom line meaningfully. That’s not ideal. It wasn’t enough to stop me from drafting him this summer or starting him in Week 1.
He’s earned at least five targets in three of four career games against the Packers and has been heavily involved in the opening script (across those contests, 53% of his yardage has come in the first 15 minutes). Ben Johnson is gone, but I think his prioritization of LaPorta in this matchup is here to stay.
You drafted LaPorta to bounce back from an underwhelming 2024 and to start for you every week: I see no reason to move off of that train of thought in Week 1.
