As fantasy football has exploded during my lifetime, the definition of a “sleeper” has evolved. At one point in time, it was a player that the general public was unaware of. Not down on, rather unsure if the name I mentioned was the local standup comic of the WR3 for the Jaguars.
Times have changed. Now, a “sleeper” to me is essentially a player in the mid-to-late rounds that I believe is mispriced by the market. I have Nico Collins ranked higher than everyone, but we, as a collective, can agree that he’s valuable.
The eight players who made this list have much less of a consensus feel from draft to draft and are, therefore, the names I’m keeping track of as the draft progresses.
J.J. McCarthy, QB, Minnesota Vikings
You’ll notice a theme with some of these picks, and that’s uncertainty. Whether you’re a big college football fan or not. Whether you’re a spreadsheet dork (guilty!) or not. Whether you’re a part of SKOL Nation or not.
None of us can say with confidence that McCarthy is set to struggle at the professional level — or that he’ll be average, or that he’ll be a superstar. There are profile traits to hang your hat on or health flags to mention, but in terms of on-the-field potential, we’ve never seen him take a snap, which means our confidence level is low at best.
For the record, I don’t blame drafters for not wanting to roll the dice (QB19 in ADP). There’s as much talent at the position as ever, and that makes it tough for any quarterback to come from the back of the pack to matter in most leagues, but if there is a “free” QB in home leagues worth stashing with that hope, it’s McCarthy for me.
Over the past four seasons, here’s a breakdown of the offenses that finished the season with 66% complete and 7.5 air yards per throw:
- All four of Kevin O’Connell’s offenses (one with the Rams and three with the Vikings)
- 22 of the other 124 individual seasons over that stretch (17.7%)
In that KOC sample size was a team led by Matthew Stafford, a QB switching organizations for the first time in his career, an injury plagued Vikings situation in 2023 that saw not one, not two, but three quarterbacks clear 145 pass attempts, and a Sam Darnold reclamation project in 2024 that transformed a trash heap signal-caller into one worth nine figures.
Impressive: Vikings QB JJ McCarthy DOMINATED the Patriots’ secondary during today’s joint practice.
• 15/19
• 5 Touchdowns
• Completed 12/13 passes in a rowA magical bounceback day from JJ 👀 pic.twitter.com/1mnj2R1IOd
— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) August 15, 2025
I’d argue that a young QB with pedigree coming off of an injury is actually an increase in starting position for O’Connell to work his magic than the hand he’s been dealt in recent years.
We don’t know how McCarthy’s game will translate to the professional stage, but we do know he was capable of executing in college (72.3% complete in 2023 with just nine interceptions on 654 pass attempts over his final two seasons at Michigan), and that might realistically be all we need in the middle of the season to survive bye weeks/injuries.
For the record, McCarthy is a strategic sleeper. You’d need to execute your draft in a specific way for him to make sense. It holds next to no value to scoop up Lamar Jackson in the late second round and then take a flier on McCarthy late.
Even if I’m right in calling him underpriced, he’s never making it into your lineup sans an injury in Baltimore, and that means he’s burning a spot on your roster.
But if you wait to address the position and don’t fill your QB spot with a top-100 pick, then we are in business. At that point, you’ve committed to drafting two signal callers and hoping that one hits in a reasonable way.
Maybe you gamble on C.J. Stroud rediscovering his rookie year form and then opt to go with McCarthy later. Perhaps you are intrigued by the potential of Trevor Lawrence or Geno Smith in new offenses. I don’t really care who it is. If you lean into uncertainty with your QB1, McCarthy is a sharp secondary bet — that much, I feel good about.
MarShawn Lloyd, RB, Green Bay Packers
I’m going to trust the Packers on this one, even with another injury preventing progress (at this point, you might as well wait until your final pick of the draft and likely get a “free” roster spot by putting him on IR).
Green Bay spent a third-round selection in 2024 on Lloyd (8.2 yards per touch during his lone season at USC and 20 scores on 258 touches over his final two collegiate seasons) and didn’t stand in the way of 2020 second-rounder AJ Dillon signing with the Eagles this offseason.
Lloyd’s rookie season never got off the ground due to illness and injuries, but with Dillon walking and a clean bill of health at the moment, he’s the clear RB2 in an offense that quietly ranked fifth in rush attempts, rush yards, and rushing scores a season ago.
Of course, there’s the Josh Jacobs factor in play. The 27-year-old recorded career highs in rushing yards and yards per catch during his first year with the Packers, putting on a display that carried into the postseason (121 yards and a touchdown in the loss in Philadelphia).
Marshawn Lloyd with 33 yards on the wheel route
😤🧀🏈pic.twitter.com/WdpjMEW1rY— Packerfan Total Access- Clayton (@packers_access) August 16, 2025
That said, we are talking about a running back who has averaged over 19.5 touches per game in three straight seasons and has missed multiple games in half of his professional seasons.
Fantasy managers are treating Lloyd as nothing more than a mediocre option among the handcuff running backs, a favorable price tag given the offense he is attached to, and the workload that the bellcow ahead of him has faced in recent years.
I’m not sure if Lloyd is good or not, but I am sure that the idea of Lloyd is something I’m interested in after 14-plus rounds go by.
The Packers face only weather risks during the final four weeks of the fantasy season (two home games along with road contests in Denver and Chicago), further elevating my interest in Lloyd. As the season winds down, we could see a run-centric attack.
Jaylen Warren, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers
This is less of a sleeper and more value he’s going, give-or-take, 15 picks after rookie Kaleb Johnson.
During his three years at Iowa, Johnson caught 29 passes and carried the rock 508 times, splits that are dramatic because of how the Hawkeyes traditionally function, but a pretty clear indicator that his skill set is more of a pounder than a versatile three-down winner.
In that vein, we saw Aaron Jones average 53.2 catches per 17 games during his final four years with the Packers and Aaron Rodgers, production that I think is at least within the range of outcomes for Warren in 2025.
And what if Johnson struggles to earn the trust of the finicky Rodgers? His ability to change speeds and protect on third-down was among the red marks on his pre-draft scouting report, potentially damning flaws in a win-now situation.
I’d pick Johnson over Warren in a vacuum, but at the price, I think you’re getting more role ceiling for a player who the public is projecting as a strictly high-floor play.
Wan’Dale Robinson, WR, New York Giants
Before I start working dark magic with numbers, everything you think about Robinson is true. Nearly three-quarters of his career routes have come out of the slot, he has more games with under five total air yards than contests with 80-plus, and he’s never reached 700 receiving yards OR scored four touchdowns in an NFL season.
That’s not exactly a resume that screams “target” and hence a spot in our FREE Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator easily outside of the top-150.
Jerry Seinfeld once told George Costanza, “If every instinct you have is wrong, then the opposite would have to be right.”
“The Constanza Rule” wasn’t brought about in a fantasy football conversation, but if everything the Giants have done recently has been wrong (they haven’t had a positive point differential since 2016 and are coming off of a season in which they set a franchise record for losses in a season), wouldn’t change have to be right?
Gone is Daniel Jones, and with a trio of quarterbacks vying for the top spot on the depth chart (Russell Wilson, Jameis Winston, and first-round pick Jaxson Dart), we are certainly looking at a different situation at the very least.
How bad was last season? Robinson finished 13th in the league in receptions (93) and it was a minor miracle. The average throw in the NFL travels 7.7 yards in the air and on balls thrown under eight yards last season, Robinson was a 21st percentile producer in terms of catch rate.
No, not his fault. Sure, he had some drops, but the quarterback play was miserable, and while there is no promise that it improves this season, it’s hard to see it getting worse in a meaningful way. Even if it just levels off, variance alone could make Robinson more efficient and get him to triple figures in receptions.
- 2023 Giants: 22nd in passer rating, 27th in yards per pass
- 2024 Giants: 30th in passer rating, 31st in yards per pass
Both of those seasons are pathetic, but Robinson was an 84th percentile short-reception rate player in the former and 21st in the later, as mentioned, Despite the promising catch total that he finished with a season ago, there was room for much more and I expect that to continue to be the case as Malik Nabers blooms into a bonafide superstar.
With all of that going on, Robinson was still better than you remember. His weekly standard deviation when it comes to PPR finish position was 11.2% tighter than Jayden Reed’s and 13.6% tighter than Zay Flowers’.
I’m not making the case that Robinson should be drafted ahead of either one of those receivers who play in far superior offenses, but the 80-110 pick difference feels a bit extreme.
And while we are on the Robinson hype train, don’t rule out a few more splash play opportunities this season (yeah, yeah, yeah, a few would technically count as “a few more”, but you get the idea).
Wan’Dale Robinson believes he’ll be used more downfield with a new QB pic.twitter.com/xWWVdarmx7
— Giants Nation Show (@GiantsNationPod) June 5, 2025
We aren’t looking at a league winner. Heck, I don’t think we are looking at a week winner. But we are looking at an underpriced player who holds value in our game that can help build out your roster, and that’s exactly what you need in the double-digit rounds. It’s OK to take a few high-upside players at this point in the draft, but just like your diet, you need balance.
Broccoli Robinson may not be a fun click, but if you pull the trigger and embrace his per-game stability, you’ll be a healthier fantasy manager.
Christian Kirk, WR, Houston Texans
I’ve presented Nico Collins on just about every optimistic piece of preseason content we have, and will put out this preseason, but he obviously doesn’t qualify for this one. That’s not going to stop me from doubling down, however.
If Collins can push for the triple crown like I think he can, guess who is going to be running wild across the middle of the field as defenses scramble to not have the top taken off?
Collins has been WR2 in perimeter PPR PPG over the past two seasons, and Kirk (77.5% slot rate last season in Jacksonville) provides the type of feared threat on those shorter targets that demands attention.
And guess what? If Collins is going bonkers against single coverage over the top, resources shift his direction, and Kirk is left to dice up lesser athletes on quick, breaking routes.
Being bullish on both Collins and Kirk may seem counterintuitive, as I’m told, there is only one football, but if C.J. Stroud proves that his rookie season should be viewed as more than an expectation, then there’s room for both of his top receivers to eat.
Texans WR Christian Kirk has been called a “Slot Demon” by some of the defensive backs on the team…Watching him operate on a daily basis throughout training camp…I see why…#Texans #Sarge #TexansTailgateTalk pic.twitter.com/8lFP9dDSox
— BIG SARGE MEDIA LLC (@BigSargeSportz) August 2, 2025
An important note here is that calls like this are context-based. Kirk isn’t being consistently drafted as a top-50 receiver. We don’t need him to repeat his 84-1,108-8 line from 2022 to return a profit.
Last season, four catches for 55 yards and one touchdown per month would have been good enough to land you at WR40, and that’s very much along the lines of where my Kirk projection sits for 2025.
League winner? Probably not. Viable option when you inevitably need roster depth and maybe a flex play during the early part of your fantasy postseason (home games against the Cardinals and Raiders in Weeks 15-16)? I’d say so!
For those interested, he grades out oddly well and is on my short list of punt-play WRs when it comes to building DFS lineups.
Jake Ferguson, TE, Dallas Cowboys
The TE pool is deep this season, and I find myself, when not landing a Tier 1 option, simply letting the field dictate which option I’m taking at the very end.
In executing this plan, I’m pleasantly surprised by how often Ferguson is sitting on the board after all of my opponents are well past addressing the position.
From the start of 2023 to Dak Prescott’s injury last season, the Cowboys averaged a league-high 37.6 passes per game, and with Fergy’s on-field target share increasing each season up to this point, he’s a reasonable opportunity target at the very least. But is there more?
He came out of the slot for 45.6% of his routes in 2024, a major increase from the 32% he produced the year prior and something that has my attention in a big way with George Pickens profiling as a perimeter-centric threat.
If I can get cheap access to Dallas’ pass game, I’m interested. Not only is this a wide-open offense, but they don’t have any real weather concerns from Halloween to Christmas Eve.
With a healthy Prescott in 2023, Ferguson ran 30.5 routes per game, and if he can turn that into five to seven targets weekly, I’ll take my chances with his return on investment over most of the tight ends being drafted in the fifth round or later.
Mason Taylor, TE, New York Jets
Taylor was the third TE off the board in April, something you might not be aware of, given that he didn’t come with nearly the same pomp and circumstance as the two who were drafted in the first half of the first round.
Don’t get me wrong, he’s not in the tier of a “Colston Loveland” or “Tyler Warren” from a pedigree standpoint, but not being aware of him in an offense that we expect to be playing from behind is a mistake.
Last season, he set the LSU record for TE receptions in a season (55) and carries with him a profile highlighted by plus-athleticism along with strong mitts. He’s certainly an interesting prospect for dynasty managers to track, and I’m not ruling out his working his way into the streaming tier by the time we are asked to navigate bye weeks.
Over the past three seasons, Justin Fields ranks eighth of 44 qualifiers in passer rating when targeting the TE position (better than the two QBs who played in the Super Bowl last season) compared to 31st when throwing to any other position (behind Aidan O’Connell and Andy Dalton).
Did you know that 20 different tight ends had consecutive games with at least a dozen PPR points a season ago? It doesn’t take much to retain value for a couple of weeks, and with games against the Panthers, Bengals, Falcons, Dolphins, Jaguars, and Saints sprinkled in for the Jets to face from Weeks 7-16, I like Taylor to make the 2025 version of that list.
