The curious case of Kenneth Walker III continued through his third NFL season, as his yards per carry continued to dip while his role in the passing game exploded, leaving fantasy football managers conflicted as to what to think about the 24-year-old.
Is he a budding superstar, or are the Seattle Seahawks still trying to figure out how to best use him and thus capping his potential?
Kenneth Walker III’s Fantasy Outlook
When Walker burst onto the scene, he looked like the type who could overcome some offensive flaws around him and potentially explode if all of the pieces around him fell into place.
Now that we are three years (42 games) into his career, it’s very fair to question that evaluation and even wonder if we are chasing production that simply might never come.
Kenneth Walker lol pic.twitter.com/w1VqoCl34Y
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) June 18, 2025
Situation plays as much a part of running back value as any position in our game, and the limitations of this offense in past years have proven to be prohibitive.
Walker Rushing Splits By Season
- 2022: 43.9% of carries against a loaded box, 1.45 YPC before contact
- 2023: 43.4% of carries against a loaded box, 1.20 YPC before contact
- 2024: 33.3% of carries against a loaded box, 0.69 YPC before contact
Defenses have been paying less attention to the Seattle running game, and yet, they are still getting their hands on the lead back close to the line of scrimmage. Both Zach Charbonnet and Walker rank in the 16th percentile or lower in rush gain rate since they joined forces in 2023 (Alexander Mattison and Jerome Ford are other names also on that list).
You could argue that the shifts to this roster result in more upside. Sam Darnold was a revelation last season, and if he commands that sort of defensive attention, running lanes are naturally going to open up.
That said, Walker hasn’t been maximizing his opportunities (percentage of points gained relative to expectations has dipped down in each season), and that brings into question if his ceiling is actually as high as your mind thinks. He’s a boom-bust runner, but the boom has been less prevalent (12.7% of carries in 2022 gained 10+ yards, a rate that dipped to 11% in 2023, and 8.5% in 2024), and Walker has to wear some of the blame for that.
When push comes to shove, determining if Walker is worthy of a top-50 overall pick, his general range per our FREE Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator, has as much to do with your managing style and risk tolerance as anything.
There will likely be a few weeks this season where he is a pivotal piece in a victory for you. That’s great, and if you trust yourself to navigate the otherwise bumpy waters when it comes to per-game fantasy production, he’s a fine pick in the neighborhood in which he’s being selected.
As you can see, however, the ceiling games come with a price. Personally, I draft for stability more often than not at the running back position and prefer to layer in upside elsewhere.
Going after Walker with regularity are boring names like James Conner, David Montgomery, and D’Andre Swift. “Boring”, yes, but the range of weekly outcomes is much more narrow, and that’s the type of profile I tend to land on.
Scouting players is obviously important, but it means nothing if you aren’t self-aware in terms of the builds that best fit you. If you don’t mind riding the waves, Walker might actually be the perfect fit for you. He’s a young back on an offense with some upside and projects for safe volume. If you prefer to let other players hold the fate of your season in your hands, pass on Walker in favor of a higher floor option and roll the dice elsewhere.
Frank Ammirante’s Kenneth Walker III Fantasy Projection
Kenneth Walker is coming off a disappointing season on the ground, where he only averaged a career-low 3.7 yards per carry. Still, Walker is getting a huge upgrade in scheme this year, as former Saints offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak is now calling plays in Seattle.
Kubiak comes from the Shanahan coaching tree, which we all know as the most running back-friendly scheme in the NFL.
While there are concerns about Seattle’s offensive line, the team invested a first-rounder in a pro-ready guard in Grey Zabel, while Charles Cross is a former first-round pick as well. Given the upgrade in scheme, it wouldn’t be shocking to see significant improvement from this group.
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As for the quarterback transition from Geno Smith to Sam Darnold, we could see the former Viking continue to perform well because of the scheme fit. Darnold has played for Kyle Shanahan and Kevin O’Connell in the last two years, each coming from the same coaching tree as Kubiak.
With that in mind, we don’t need to worry too much about offensive line and quarterback play. Prioritize the scheme fit here and take Walker with confidence in the fourth round.
