It was commonplace to downgrade Justin Jefferson this time last year, citing the shift to Sam Darnold as a downgrade that was sure to cap the WR1’s upside in terms of either catches or targets, if not both.
Didn’t happen.
In his fifth NFL season, Jefferson reached triple digits in receptions for a third time and 1,400 receiving yards for the fourth time. There’s some obvious course correcting that needs to occur, but has the industry overestimated things entering his age-26 season?
Justin Jefferson’s Fantasy Outlook
He’s one of the best in the game, and after proving himself in an uncertain situation a year ago, what more does Jefferson realistically have to do?
Throwback to Justin Jefferson mic’d up with Paul Allen for JJ McCarthy’s preseason debut in 2024 😈 pic.twitter.com/y8KTLHDo4w
— SleeperVikings (@SleeperVikings) June 8, 2025
In 2024, with everyone questioning how stable his production would be with Sam Darnold under center, he did what he always does: terrorize defenses. His first finish outside of the top 20 came in Week 10, immediately dismissing any concerns of a learning curve.
When all was said and done, he finished with a career high 10 touchdown grabs (thanks in large part to a personal best 18 end zone targets). He posted the second-best production relative to fantasy expectations season of his already extraordinary career.
When looking at his resume, it’s difficult not to look his way when you’re on the clock. Jefferson has overachieved based on expectations in two-thirds of his career games in which he’s earned more than five looks. He’s an elite target earner in an elite system, and history has shown us that when the volume is there, he’s as good as there is in this game.
“Just throw it up anywhere, and I’m going to go get it.”
His advice to JJ McCarthy was simple. It was confident. It was accurate.
I’m fine if you want to put a few receivers in front of Jefferson, but you’re doing yourself a disservice if you don’t at least consider Minnesota’s ace when you’re on the clock in the first half of the first round, no matter your league structure.
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When coming down the stretch of this season, the Vikings play four of their final five games in weatherproof situations (three at home and a Sunday Night date with the Cowboys at Jerry’s World). Maybe, if you’re a glass-half-empty type, there’s a moderate learning curve that takes place during the first month of the 2025 season.
Maybe.
But Minnesota has its bye in Week 6, a nice reset opportunity should they need it. Jefferson may be average by his lofty standards this season, and that would be just fine. The question that needs to be asked is, what if this is the best quarterback he’s ever played with?
Frank Ammirante’s Justin Jefferson Fantasy Projection
Justin Jefferson is set for another season with a new quarterback — this time it’s first-year starter J.J. McCarthy. I’m projecting a huge year from Jefferson because I have high hopes for McCarthy.
There are a couple of key factors to consider here. For one, head coach Kevin O’Connell is a quarterback whisperer, having brought out the best in not only Sam Darnold and Kirk Cousins but also journeymen like Joshua Dobbs and Nick Mullens. This is one of the brightest offensive minds in football, one who hand-picked McCarthy to be his franchise quarterback.
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How does this relate to Jefferson? Well, this could be his Joe Burrow — a pocket passer with mobility to make off-script explosive plays, becoming the best quarterback that he’s ever played with. We also have to consider that WR Jordan Addison is slated to serve a three-game suspension to start the year, which would make Jefferson even more of a target hog than usual.
Also, if you’re into stacking, pairing Jefferson with McCarthy is easy because the former Michigan standout is available quite late in drafts. Add this up, and you can see why I have Jefferson as my WR2 this season.