Josh Downs doesn’t get nearly the flowers he deserves. A true professional wide receiver, Downs may very well be the WR1 on the Indianapolis Colts. With a very affordable price, are fantasy football managers overlooking Downs’ potential in 2025 drafts?
Josh Downs Fantasy Outlook
There seems to be a lot of positivity surrounding Downs this season. Yet, his price in fantasy drafts doesn’t reflect this.
Downs is only 24 years old and entering his third NFL season, having shown promise in each of his first two. As a rookie, he averaged 9.2 fantasy points per game on a 68-771-2 line. He experienced a natural progression to 13.1 PPG as a sophomore, posting many promising metrics.
Downs earned a 25.6% target share and was targeted on 29.6% of his routes run, the sixth-most in the league. He did this despite running a route on 77.8% of Colts’ passing plays.
While Downs’ 6.9 aDOT, 97th in the league, may appear to be a detriment, he still managed 2.22 yards per route run, a testament to his yards after the catch ability. Additionally, a low aDOT isn’t necessarily a bad thing. It means his team is designing ways to get the ball in his hands.
3. Last year, Josh Downs ranked 10th-best in 1D/RR (0.114)…
…and 4th-best in TPRR (30%), behind only Puka Nacua, Drake London, and Malik Nabers.
This top-10 is filled with Downs and fantasy superstars. pic.twitter.com/laJ9Ynt8z4
— Ryan Heath (@RyanJ_Heath) June 26, 2025
Downs appeared to overtake Michael Pittman Jr. as the Colts’ top receiving threat. Although he operates primarily out of the slot, spending 72.5% of his time there last season, Downs earned targets at a higher rate than his counterpart.
Regardless, though, there’s room for both, as the Colts do not have a clear third option in the passing game behind their top two receivers. Rookie TE Tyler Warren could be that guy, but he should not be viewed as a threat to either Downs or Pittman.
For reasons that remain unclear, Downs’ average draft position (ADP) is down at WR46. Perhaps that is a remnant of earlier ADP data from when the Colts’ QB situation was less certain.
As things currently stand, Anthony Richardson is the favorite to be the Week 1 starter and make the most starts on the Colts this season. Of course, it is exceedingly likely that both he and Daniel Jones make starts. But that shouldn’t scare fantasy managers away.
First of all, we should get about half the season from Jones, who has proven capable of peppering guys like Downs underneath. Second, Downs wasn’t much worse with Richardson last season than with other quarterbacks, averaging 12.2 PPG with AR against 14.4 without him. Yes, 2.2 PPG matters, but at his price, Downs will be startable either way.
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I am incredibly bullish on Downs this season and believe he has a chance to crack the top 24, further progressing from where he was last season. I understand his ADP being lower due to the trepidation surrounding the Colts’ quarterbacks, but way down at Wr48 doesn’t make sense.
I have Downs ranked as my WR42, which puts me well above consensus. It took some time, but he’s become one of “my guys” this season. I want Downs everywhere, and you should, too.
Dan Fornek’s Josh Downs Fantasy Projection
Josh Downs emerged as a popular sleeper in fantasy before the 2024 season after an efficient rookie year and the hype around Anthony Richardson heading into 2024. While Richardson ultimately failed, Downs could still reward fantasy managers who believed in his ability to improve.
Downs increased his targets (107), receptions (72), receiving yards (803) and touchdowns (5) despite playing in three fewer games in his second season. He was the WR28 in PPR points per game (13.1) thanks to his high-volume role in the slot.
The second-year receiver was eighth in the NFL in slot rate (72.8%) and sixth in target rate (29.6%) despite plenty of target competition and subpar quarterback play. He was 22nd among receivers in yards per route run (2.22) thanks to his ability to generate plays after the catch (396 yards, WR17).
There is far more uncertainty in his workload heading into 2025. Indianapolis is currently using training camps to decide on a quarterback battle between Richardson and Daniel Jones, which could have a significant impact on the Downs.
If Jones wins the job, Downs will see a steady diet of targets in the slot. However, he will also be competing with 2025 first-round tight end Tyler Warren for targets in that area of the field, making his path to improvement far murkier.
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Downs is arguably Indianapolis’s most talented wide receiver, so he could continue to see his role grow in 2025. The Colts quietly have one of the better pass-catching groups in the NFL, which could put a cap on his ability to improve his target share. He should be treated as a high-end QB3 until we get more clarity on how the offense will shake out next season.
