The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key New York Jets players heading into their matchup with the Cleveland Browns to help you craft a winning lineup.
Justin Fields, QB
I don’t have kids.
I’m not sure I have the patience for it. Never have been. Maybe I’m wrong, but I’ve avoided finding out by opting to not go that route.
My guess is that there is a direct correlation between willingness to develop children and willingness to roster Fields.
If you have that level of patience and understanding, I’m happy for you. I can’t do it.
- Week 1: 29.5 fantasy points
- Week 2: 4.0
- Week 3: DNP
- Week 4: 27.1
- Week 5: 25.9
- Week 6: 4.9
- Week 7: 4.0
- Week 8: 20.9
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Matchups have driven the spikes (the most recent good games came against the Dolphins, Cowboys, and Bengals), and this doesn’t profile as one of those spots.
That said, I don’t have kids.
My siblings do, and their sporadic kids surprise them all the time. The range of outcomes for Fields is too broad for me to provide advice with a high level of confidence. I wouldn’t be playing him, even with two weeks to prepare.
But I would have missed out on the big performances.
If you roster Fields, I guess that your team is a very stressful 5-4 or 4-5. Are you comfortable starting him, potentially with your playoff seed on the line?
Dart (at CHI) is an easy play over him for me, and I’d rather spend my weekend with Sam Darnold (vs. ARI) or Stroud (vs. JAX) if given the choice.
Breece Hall, RB
Prior to the Week 9 bye, Breece Hall had the best game of his season, piling up 147 yards and a pair of touchdowns against the Bengals. I think we can agree that there is some grading on a curve that needs to take place with that performance, and as long as we are at it, let’s contextualize the past six games.
- Three Favorable Spots (CIN, DAL, MIA)
- 22.2 PPR PPG
- +37.1% relative to expectations
- 1.13 points per touch
- Three More Difficult Spots (CAR, DEN, TB)
- 7.4 PPR PPG
- -38.7% relative to expectations
- 0.46 points per touch
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This profiles as a snake-eyes spot for those gambling on the Jets.
The Browns are just as rested as they are and haven’t allowed an RB to score 13 PPR points since Week 4. Some of that is their strong defense, and some of it is the type of ugly, clock-killing type of games they tend to play, but one way or another, opposing backs have had all sorts of trouble in this matchup.
If you don’t have an RB behind Hall that projects for 13-16 touches, it’s going to be difficult to pivot, but I’m certainly downgrading Hall and avoiding him in all DFS formats.
Garrett Wilson, WR
The hope is that Garrett Wilson (knee) is good to go coming out of the bye. While betting on the passing attack of the Jets isn’t exactly an optimal way to spend a Sunday, he has seen at least eight targets in every game he’s played this season and we have seen a receiver per week get home against the stingy Browns.
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In fact, in five of their past seven games, Cleveland has allowed a WR to score at least 16.5 PPR points, production that Wilson managers would take in a heartbeat. If there’s a New York receiver that is going to flirt with that total, there’s no debate as to who it’ll be and even if Wilson comes up just shy of that number, he’ll prove worthy of starting.
I’ve got him ranked just ahead of Deebo Samuel (vs. DET) and behind Jaylen Waddle (vs. BUF) if we are stacking up talented receivers with iffy QB situations against one another.
Mason Taylor, TE
You mean betting on a rookie tight end in a Fields-led offense comes with a wide range of outcomes?
Mason Taylor has seen 7+ targets in three of his past five, but he’s also managed to reach 35 receiving yards in just two of eight this season.
He’s the definition of a streaming option. I like the player, but I don’t like the environment, and specifically in this spot, how many points are going to be scored?
Taylor has scored north of 6.12 PPR points three times this season, in games against the Cowboys, Bengals, and Dolphins that saw an average of 61.3 points put on the board.
It might take these two teams a month to score that much, and that’s why I’m not the least bit tempted to go this route this weekend.
