Cleveland Broncos wide receiver Jerry Jeudy was a first-round pick by the Denver Broncos back in 2020, and while he never lived up to expectations in Denver, he posted career highs in catches (90) and yards (1,229) during his first season in Cleveland, one that had spotty quarterback play at best.
The 26-year-old faces similar challenges this season, and fantasy football managers aren’t betting on a repeat. Are they wise to do so?
Jerry Jeudy’s Fantasy Outlook
Jeudy was PPR WR21 last season with a WR55 average draft position (ADP). If you drafted him in the 12th round, in the Romeo Doubs and Joshua Palmer range, you were lapping your league in terms of value.
The promising season for a player who, theoretically, is still approaching his peak seasons should be met with a massive market correction. However, he is currently flirting with WR40 status on the ADP board. Yes, it’s a bump up from last season, but hardly a sign of optimism.
We all agree that Jeudy can play, so is this discount warranted? Is the situation entering this season that much worse than the hodgepodge situation from last season, where Joe Flacco, Deshaun Watson, PJ Walker, and Dorian Thompson-Robinson all cleared 100 attempts?
2024 WR Leaders by Total Air Yards
[+ Catchable Air Yard % in Parentheses]
1. CALVIN RIDLEY, 1838 (56%)
2. Courtland Sutton, 1822 (63%)
3. Drake London, 1715 (69%)
4. Justin Jefferson, 1709 (70%)
5. Marvin Harrison, 1613 (63%)
6. Malik Nabers, 1610 (59%)
7. Jerry Jeudy, 1610… pic.twitter.com/VpLbhb7FmO— Fantasy Points Data (@FantasyPtsData) June 29, 2025
The truth is that we don’t know, but if we have questions at the level we do, why take the risk? Other receivers in this general range are Rome Odunze (upward trending quarterback situation), Jakobi Meyers (increased quarterback stability from a season ago), and Ricky Pearsall (role upside), all of whom have a cleaner path to a reasonable floor.
The Jeudy case is one baked in risk/reward analysis, so let’s take a closer look. How bad can it be? How bad should we expect it to be?
As it turns out, the public has this about right and might actually be optimistic.
Last season, three of 39 qualified quarterbacks graded worse than a ‘D’ in PFSN’s QB+ Rankings. Given projected win totals and the fact that we can’t say with confidence who will lead this team in pass attempts, the probability of whoever qualifies from this team landing in that group of QBs is reasonable.
Heck, Deshaun Watson is one of the three. His 49.8 grade was an ‘F’ by a wide margin and 6.4 points lower than any other QB we evaluated in 2024. Spencer Rattler and Will Levis were the other two to make this exclusive list, and when you look at the WR profiles of those who caught passes from the trio, it’s about as ugly as you’d expect.
- 11.1% fantasy production under expectations
- 1.25 yards per route run
- 1.48 fantasy points per target
- 2.60 fantasy points per reception
If those numbers sound repulsive, your instincts are correct.
Average 168 Qualified WRs in 2024
- 2.4% fantasy production over expectations
- 1.52 yards per route run
- 1.76 fantasy points per target
- 2.80 fantasy points per reception
That’s not exactly a path to viability in anything but the deepest of leagues. It’s possible that Jeudy’s raw ability puts him on the high end of expectations, but at the end of the day, a bet on him is a bet on semi-competent quarterback play, and you’re playing with fire in that regard.
Last season, Keenan Allen (WR32) was the top-producing receiver who finished at least 10% under scoring expectations, and Wan’Dale Robinson (WR41) was next, making the current market price of Jeudy pretty justifiable.
MORE: Free Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
Jeudy’s strong 2024 stat line required him to hit his ceiling for nearly half the season. From the beginning of November through the end of the season, he ranked seventh in air yards per game, fourth in catches/targets, and second in receiving yards. If you think he has the potential to be a lineup staple for you this season, you’ll need a run similar to that at some point, and that’s difficult to project.
- QB uncertainty
- Potential to play slow through an improved running game
- Cedric Tillman’s ability to earn deep targets
- David Njoku’s drain on volume
I’m not sure Jeudy kills you at his current price, but he profiles as a small-swing small-hit type without a weekly floor, and that’s just not how I like to spend my picks in the 6-7 round range.
Mason LeBeau‘s Jerry Jeudy Fantasy Projection
Jerry Jeudy existed in two extremes last year. When DeShaun Watson was leading one of the worst offenses in recent memory, Jeudy never crossed 75-plus yards and caught just one ball in three straight games. When Jameis Winston came in and delivered a spark, Jeudy only went below 75 yards once, caught a minimum of five passes per game, and exploded for a 235-point bomb against Denver. His per-17 stats in that time put him on pace for 1,908 yards, yet only seven touchdowns.Â
The reality for Jeudy exists somewhere in the middle, but it appears he was doomed to play with poor quarterbacks. It’s not likely any of Joe Flacco, Dillon Gabriel, or Shedeur Sanders will give him the volume to get near that production again, but they also might not raise the floor much past what Watson gave him, either.Â
Even if you believe in his upside, there isn’t much reason to trust him this year. He is not a redzone threat with a career-high of six, and the lacking QB play limits his opportunities there anyway. I believe he can be a solid FLEX in a given week — he’ll play Cincinnati twice — but his ADP being around players like Travis Hunter and Jaylen Waddle leaves little reason to draft him.
