We universally agree on so little these days, and it’s not 100%, but most of the football watching community can agree that Jaylen Warren appears to be a good, if not very good, football player. Across his three seasons, he’s picking up 5.4 yards per touch, and by my math, that means that if you give him the ball two times in a row, you’re moving the chains.
The fantasy industry rejoiced about his role when Najee Harris left town this offseason, but the Steelers spent a third-round pick on Iowa’s Kaleb Johnson, and now there’s fear that we are back to where we started.
How should you value Warren entering 2025? Let’s take a look at what the numbers suggest is most likely to happen in this backfield.
Jaylen Warren Fantasy Outlook
Here we go again. Just when we dusted off those punny fantasy football team names in anticipation of Warren leading our teams to championships this season (Warren Peace, It’s Sooner, Not Later, Steel Certain), Pittsburgh went out and did Pittsburgh things.
Warren is a fluid pass catcher who is shifty in the open field, and this team seems to be content with that being the extent of his role, despite evidence that he is a threat no matter how you get him in space.
Best RB seasons in missed tackles forced per rush since 2020 (PFF)
1. 2024 Kenneth Walker (39.9%)
2. 2023 Jaylen Warren (35.6%)— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) June 18, 2025
The aforementioned Johnson really is just a younger version of Harris, and that significantly caps any upside conversations being had around Warren (currently a very low-end flex option in 12-team leagues per our Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator)
Najee Harris College Profile
- Height: 6’1”
- Career: 6.0 yards per carry
- Final Season: 19.3 carries per game with 26 rushing TDs in 13 games
Kaleb Johnson College Profile
- Height: 6’1”
- Career: 5.9 yards per carry
- Final Season: 20 carries per game with 21 rushing TDs in 12 games
Mike Tomlin pretty clearly has a type, and that type is not exactly what Warren brings to the table. That said, you could certainly make the case that Aaron Rodgers, coming off the lowest aDOT season of his career and with declining deep ball metrics, has a history of elevating pass-catching backs to a degree, and that Warren has more knowledge of this system than the rookie.
Those things are true and could result in Warren being more valuable in September to October than in November to December. But what’s the upside? He’s cleared 15 PPR points in five of 48 career games (10.4%), and it’s hard to see that changing with all signs pointing to Johnson being the bellcow in this offense.
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The market is taking all of these red flags into account, however, so I’m still OK with adding him to your roster in the middle of the draft, but you should be doing it with the expectation that he repeats past seasons as opposed to building on them. He’s currently coming off the board in the back-up running back tier that includes Jordan Mason, Cam Skattebo, and Zach Charbonnet.
Interestingly enough, he and Harris are priced similarly, and I would take him in that head-to-head evaluation, with the thought being that his role is less likely to change drastically. Whereas Harris has the risk of becoming a non-factor as the season progresses.
Frank Ammirante’s Jaylen Warren Fantasy Projection
Jaylen Warren is a shifty back and good pass-catcher, but it’s clear that the Steelers don’t trust him as their 1A. Otherwise, they wouldn’t have heavily invested in rookie Kaleb Johnson.
With that said, reports indicate that Warren is currently ahead of Johnson in camp so that we could see some more consistent production for the veteran, at least in the early stages of the season.
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Even with a declining Aaron Rodgers, that is still a slight upgrade at quarterback over Russell Wilson, so Warren will have a chance to eclipse last season’s numbers. However, it’s hard to trust a team where Arthur Smith calls plays. Would it surprise you if they mixed in Kenneth Gainwell as well? How frustrating would it be to see Gainwell vulture a touchdown?
There’s not much of a ceiling with Warren, so I’d rather aim higher with a high-upside handcuff like Zach Charbonnet at this ADP. Warren makes more sense in a build where you wait on RB and need some options with standalone value.
