Jaxon Smith-Njigba turned in one of the most dominant target-earning seasons the position has seen in years. He did it in an offense that barely threw the football, which is either a red flag or a hidden bonus, depending on how you read it.
The Seattle passing game around him has not gotten any more crowded. Fantasy managers picking near the top of the first round need to know exactly where he fits.
Should You Draft Jaxon Smith-Njigba in Fantasy Football?
In PFN’s Free Fantasy Mock Draft Simulator, JSN has an ADP of 6.0. He is my WR3 this year, as well as my colleague Kyle Soppe’s. His projected fantasy points per game for the season are 19.58. If you’re picking in that 5-to-6 range, what are you doing with Smith-Njigba?
Last year, JSN posted 21.2 fantasy points per game. That was the overall WR2, behind only Puka Nacua. He had a league-high 36% target share, and he was targeted on 33.8% of his routes run. That is simply unreal. His 3.72 yards per route run is also off the charts.
This is a truly elite talent, but he also came with elite efficiency, and that means we have regression concerns. He averaged 15.1 yards per reception, which is well above his career average. That is bound to drop down. Most concerningly, he had 163 targets despite playing on one of the lowest-volume passing attacks in the league. Sam Darnold averaged just 28 pass attempts per game. It’s just that an inordinate number of his passes went to his No. 1 receiver.
On the flip side, though, the Seahawks had the No. 1 scoring defense last year. They allowed 16.9 points per game. That typically regresses. I’m not saying the Seahawks are suddenly going to be a bad defense, but if they go from being the best defense in the league in scoring to fifth, sixth, or seventh, that could result in some more passing volume, which could offset some of the inevitable efficiency drop.
We also have the matter of the running game. Kenneth Walker III is gone now, in Kansas City. Zach Charbonnet tore his ACL, and he won’t be ready until around midseason at best, most likely.
They brought in Jadarian Price, the rookie, in the first round, and they’ve been talking up George Holani. But either way, there’s no denying that this backfield is not as talented to open the season as it was last year. Could we get some more passing from that as well? I think so.
For me, JSN is confidently a player that I am selecting at No. 5 overall, assuming the top four go as expected with Jahmyr Gibbs and Bijan Robinson at 1-2 and then Ja’Marr Chase and Puka Nacua at 3-4.
I would take JSN over some guys in his range, such as Christian McCaffrey or Amon-Ra St. Brown, although I could definitely see the case for taking St. Brown over JSN. Regardless, I do prefer to take running backs in the first round, but I’m not passing up the elite talent that JSN has to offer.
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Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s Week 1 Fantasy Outlook
Analysis provided by PFN Analyst Kyle Soppe.
You spent a first-round pick on Smith-Njigba this summer, and for good reason. He’s the straw that stirs the offense of the defending Super Bowl champions, has never missed a game during his NFL career, and had more receiving yards last season than he had in the previous two combined.
You made a good pick, and that is going to be the case no matter how this season starts.
He is a touch lower in my weekly rankings for this matchup because the last time we had professional football in front of us, the Pats did everything they could to limit his production.
And it worked.
Well, it depends on how you define “worked.”
They slowed one of the best receivers in football (0.67 PPR points per target, not just his worst showing of the season, but the second-worst in a game he has started during his career), but they got their brakes beat off.
Maybe that means they pivot, but I’m going to guess that JSN is still a focus of the defensive game plan. I actually worry about this offense as a whole in terms of the numbers they can put up in this spot. We know about the change in the backfield, some natural Sam Darnold regression is to be expected, and New England operated at the third-slowest pace a season ago.
You’re starting JSN, but if you’re expecting him to come out of the gates flying like he did last season (100+ yards in each of the first two weeks and 6 of the first 8), I think you’re setting yourself up for disappointment.
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Where Smith-Njigba Ranks Among 2026 Wide Receivers
- Ja’Marr Chase | CIN
- Puka Nacua | LAR
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA
- Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET
- Justin Jefferson | MIN
- CeeDee Lamb | DAL
- Malik Nabers | NYG
- Drake London | ATL
- Nico Collins | HOU
- A.J. Brown | NE
- George Pickens | DAL
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