Javonte Williams has struggled to regain his pre-injury form for two years now. Could a fresh start with the Dallas Cowboys do the trick? The presumptive favorite to be the team’s RB1, Williams, is a value in fantasy football or fool’s gold?
Javonte Williams Fantasy Outlook
By now, every fantasy manager (and NFL fan) has heard the phrase, “Running backs don’t matter.” Last year, guys like Saquon Barkley and Josh Jacobs helped push back against that narrative. But, in general, over the better part of the past decade, NFL teams have largely decided that it is not in their best interests to pay up at the running back position.
It’s quite ironic that the Cowboys have become the paradigm for this philosophy, as they once spent the No. 4 overall pick on Ezekiel Elliott. However, it appears as though they secretly regret that decision. While Zeke was an elite running back for about a half-decade, he never actually moved the needle. Since then, the Cowboys have invested minimal resources into the running back position.
Dallas was fine with Tony Pollard as their lead back in 2023. After he walked in 2024, the presumption was they’d surely sign or draft a replacement. Instead, they legitimately went into the season with a completely cooked Elliott and 2020 former UDFA Rico Dowdle as their top two backs.
By the second half of the season, Dowdle was being used as a three-down back. The wild part is it worked.
Dowdle averaged 12.4Â fantasy points per game, finishing as the overall RB24. He was at 13.5 PPG from Week 5 onward, which is the point at which the Cowboys started leaning on him more.
The point in recapitulating all of this is that the Cowboys’ RB1 role is valuable in fantasy. Whoever ends up emerging will be startable.
Currently, Williams sits atop the depth chart. Behind him is a sub-replacement-level talent in Miles Sanders, who really shouldn’t even be in the NFL, and rookie fifth-rounder Jaydon Blue.
I am bullish on Blue emerging because I do not believe in the talent of Williams (and obviously not Sanders). At the same time, the history of Day 3 rookie running backs making strong impacts in fantasy is not great.
Occam’s Razor tells us the simplest solution is often the correct one. The most likely outcome in Dallas is Williams ends up as the lead back, for whatever that’s worth.
Once upon a time, Williams was poised for greatness in Denver. He had a strong rookie year that saw him average 12.1 PPG in a timeshare with Melvin Gordon. Before his sophomore breakout could really get going, Williams tore his ACL.
Pre-injury Javonte Williams was pretty, pretty, pretty good pic.twitter.com/SQ2yXEWlKr
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) August 5, 2024
When Williams returned in 2023, he wasn’t the same guy. Even another year removed from the injury in 2024 did not help Williams’ explosiveness return. At this point, it’s arguable whether it ever will.
With that said, is Williams really that much worse than Dowdle? One thing we can say for sure is that if Williams even commands a 50% opportunity share in Dallas, he will be worth rostering in fantasy, especially if he’s the goal line back.
Williams also has a strong track record as a receiver. He earned a 13% target share last season. Even if he only sees 8-10 carries a game, Williams merely matching Dowdle’s target share of 8.4% from last season, combined with goal line work, could get him into Flex territory.
MORE: Free Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
Williams’ ADP is way down at RB36, which is still the highest of anyone on the Cowboys. For my money, I want to take shots on Blue because he is the unknown. I believe I know who Williams and Sanders are.
Plus, there have been reports out of Cowboys camp that Williams is getting outplayed by Sanders. I truly cannot think of a more damning indictment of a running back than saying he can’t perform better than Miles Sanders.
Regardless of what you think, though, you want to take shots on this backfield. Someone is going to emerge, and whoever that is will almost certainly outperform his ADP in fantasy. Given my ranking of Williams at RB51, it definitely won’t be him.
Dan Fornek’s Javonte Williams Fantasy Projection
Williams disappointed once again in 2024. The veteran running back played in all 17 games for the Broncos, but had just 139 carries for 513 yards and four touchdowns. He did have a career year as a receiver out of the backfield (70 targets, 52 receptions, and 346 receiving yards), but a lot of that can be attributed to Sean Payton’s offense. Among running backs with at least eight games played, Williams finished as the RB38 in PPR points per game (9.3).
It has been tough sledding for Williams ever since he tore his ACL in 2022. He’s averaged just 3.65 yards per carry over the last two seasons. In 2024, he ranked as the RB72 in explosive run rate (2.9%) and was tied for RB64 in missed tackles forced per attempt (0.13). He was also RB40 in yards after contact (282).
MORE:Â Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer
Despite that, Williams was able to secure a one-year, $3 million contract with the Dallas Cowboys. He will be competing with Miles Sanders, rookie Jaydon Blue, and 2024 sixth-round pick Deuce Vaughn for touches. Based on that, Williams should be poised to at least be the early down back in 2025.
Williams may get the volume to be fantasy relevant again, but it is hard to imagine that he will be a consistent RB3 in a messy backfield on an offense that is gearing up to throw the football. He will either need to emerge as a bell cow back or have a huge touchdown share in 2025 to be a consistent fantasy option.
