Buffalo Bills running back James Cook was a tricky evaluation ahead of last season. Would the Bills really commit to making him their lead back? As it turned out, Cook was one of the better fantasy football values in what historically was the RB dead zone. Should fantasy managers expect similar production from Cook in 2025?
James Cook Fantasy Outlook
After the 2023 season, my thoughts on Cook were that this is who he is. Cook averaged 13.7 fantasy points per game. He was a solid RB2, but not exactly a difference-maker. There was definitely room for upside, but I didn’t see RB1 potential.
In 2024, Cook proved me wrong, averaging 16.7 points per game (PPG). Clearly, RB1 upside did exist, and he realized that potential.
Now, Cook comes with a borderline RB1 price tag, currently going off the board as the RB14 with an overall average draft position (ADP) of around 35. Cook is actually cheaper now than he was a year ago. Is the fantasy community out of its mind?
Contrarily, the fantasy community is extremely savvy. It continues to show how much better and more knowledgeable the average fantasy manager is now compared to 10 years ago.
Typically, when a young running back has a true breakout season, he gets more expensive. Yet, Cook’s price decreased a bit. What has the fantasy community figured out?
Let’s examine what made Cook’s 2024 so much better than 2023. It wasn’t his opportunity share, as that dropped from 62.4% to 58.9%. How about his target share? Nope. That went from 9.9% to 8.1%. Then it had to be overall volume? Wait. No. That dropped, too, going from 291 opportunities to 245. In basically every measurable stat or metric, Cook was worse/lower in 2024…except for one glaring change.
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Over the first two years of his career, in 34 total games, Cook scored nine touchdowns. He doubled that in 2024 alone. Despite sharing a field with Josh Allen, who was the team’s primary goal line back in 2023, Cook’s goal line usage changed dramatically.
In 2023, Cook had exactly one rushing touchdown from inside the five-yard line. In fact, he only had two rushing touchdowns the entire season.
In 2024, Cook scored 16 of his 18 touchdowns on the ground. Seven of them came from inside the five-yard line. Cook had five carries inside the five-yard line the entire 2023 season. He had 15 such carries in 2024.
Can Cook Continue Scoring Touchdowns in 2025?
James Cook with the TD in Buffalo!
📱: Stream #INDvsBUF on NFL+ https://t.co/bBFpXevVUR pic.twitter.com/aE8UGgBzba
— NFL (@NFL) August 12, 2023
Cook is a talented player. But he doesn’t see enough volume to return high-end fantasy value without the touchdowns. It’s safe to say he won’t score 18 times again. It’s also safe to say he shouldn’t regress all the way to a mere six touchdowns. If Cook scores 10 times, is that enough to justify his ADP? Can he score 10 times?
The Bills’ backfield hasn’t changed. Cook remains atop the depth chart, while Ty Johnson and Ray Davis mix in behind him.
The most predictive stat for running back fantasy production is volume. Cook’s 2023 performance was more in line with his volume than in 2024, as evidenced by him averaging 0.8 fantasy points per opportunity two years ago compared to 1.09 last season. That’s 31st in the league vs. 8th.
On the one hand, we don’t want to rely on efficiency. On the other hand, the Bills were quite the formidable offense last year. Why would they change anything? There’s clearly a vested interest in only using Allen at the goal line when they feel they have to.
I came into this writeup expecting to be calling for a full fade on Cook. Now, having done the research, he’s actually shaping up to be a bit of a value. Even though I don’t think the 16-PPG upside is really there, as he won’t score enough, Cook would merely have to replicate his low-scoring 2023 season to return par value.
I have Cook ranked as my RB15, right smack in the middle of his finishes each of the past two seasons. If you can get Cook in the fourth round, that feels like a very safe selection at a part of the draft that produces a lot of busts.
Frank Ammirante’s James Cook Fantasy Projection
James Cook is the popular fade among the fantasy community, but I’m on the opposite side. Since Joe Brady took over as Bills playcaller, Cook has been one of the most valuable players in fantasy football.
In 2023 from Weeks 11-18 when Brady was offensive coordinator, Cook ranked as RB11 and FLEX18. Last year, Cook kept it going, finishing RB10 and FLEX12 in fantasy points per game in half PPR formats.
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While yes, Cook is likely going to regress in touchdowns because 16 scores is such a high number, that doesn’t mean that he’s going to crash down to four or five. The Bills still have an elite running game and high-scoring offense. On top of that, Buffalo has one of the softest schedules in the NFL, so they should be playing in favorable game scripts quite often.
This is likely going to be Cook’s final year in Buffalo as he looks for a new contract. Don’t be surprised to see the team feed him touches to get the most value out of their lead back. The “Ray Davis show” will wait until next year, so take Cook in the fourth round, where he’s an absolute steal, given his recent production.
