Last year, the Dallas Cowboys’ offense had to go half the season without Dak Prescott. Naturally, that hurt the passing game’s production. With a healthy Prescott and a consolidated passing attack, is tight end Jake Ferguson a prime late-round target for fantasy football managers?
Jake Ferguson Fantasy Outlook
In 2023, Ferguson took over as the Cowboys’ primary tight end after Dalton Schultz departed. Given how useful the Cowboys’ TE1 has been for fantasy over the years, fantasy managers made Ferguson a popular late-round dart throw. He rewarded them with 10.4 fantasy points per game, which was good for an overall TE10 finish.
When it comes to tight ends, 10 PPG is roughly the threshold for TE1 production. It is what we should view as replacement-level. You can find 10 PPG relatively easily via a late-round guy or streaming. Never pay up for 10 PPG.
That said, fantasy managers were optimistic about Ferguson continuing to progress in 2024, as the team lacked a reliable option in the passing game behind CeeDee Lamb. Even if we trusted an aging and declining Brandin Cooks as the WR2, Dak Prescott is more than capable of supporting three fantasy-relevant pass catchers.
Jake Ferguson propaganda pic.twitter.com/3BdSW0Gm9d
— SleeperCowboys (@SleeperCowboys) June 13, 2025
We learned a couple of things about Ferguson from last season. First, Prescott matters…a lot. Ferguson averaged his usual 10.2 PPG in seven games with his quarterback last season, but he was at a disastrous 5.3 PPG in the seven games without him.
Second, Ferguson may just be a replacement-level tight end. Even at his best, we’ve now seen him play basically 24 games as the Cowboys’ TE1 with Prescott, and he’s averaged just a hair over 10 PPG. We should not be upset about that production from a tight end, but we should never pay for it.
Last season, nine tight ends averaged between 8.9 and 11.1 PPG. Essentially, they are all the same. Therefore, if you can’t get a true difference maker at the position, you do not want to draft a replacement-level performer in the middle rounds. Just wait. This year, the guy you wait for could very well be Ferguson.
Despite a pretty significant track record of back-end TE1 production, Ferguson’s average draft position (ADP) is TE15. He’s behind guys like Dallas Goedert and Mark Andrews, who were replacement-level TEs last season. He’s also behind Dalton Kincaid, who was unusable last season.
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Ferguson’s numbers last season were not nearly as bad as the PPG suggests. He saw a 16.9% target share and was targeted on 27.7% of his routes run. His usage was fine. The issue was spending half his season catching passes from Cooper Rush and Trey Lance.
With a healthy Prescott, Ferguson is a strong bet to outperform his ADP. While he’s unlikely to be a true needle-mover, the Cowboys’ offense should be good enough that there’s outlier touchdown potential here. At worst, you can get that back-end TE1 10 PPG for a price cheaper than other managers are paying.
I have Ferguson ranked as my TE14, and he will be my go-to late-round TE target this season.
Mason LeBeau‘s Jake Ferguson Fantasy Projection
Fresh off a disappointing 494-yard season in 2024, the Cowboys were quick to reward Ferguson with an extension worth up to $52 million. Strange Dallas proceedings aside, the extension wasn’t entirely undeserved. Ferguson had a strong 2023 season with 761 yards, but was expected to make a jump entering year three. That didn’t happen, so his fantasy value has fallen to a much more reasonable place.Â
Although he regressed, so did the entire offense, and losing QB Dak Prescott down the stretch and dealing with injuries himself didn’t help. It’s just a shame there isn’t a little more proof of concept with Ferguson, who only has the one strong season thus far. He soaked up receptions and was effective as a chains mover, but even with the strong workload in 2023, he only caught five touchdowns. Newcomer WR George Pickens plays a similar role, but may be more useful in the red zone.Â
For those reasons, I’m not seeking Ferguson out specifically. However, a bump in total offensive productivity would only benefit him, as he still seems to be a clear third option in this offense. At 26 and year four, there’s plenty of room for growth, and this offense looks to be a pass funnel yet again.Â
Unless you pass on the position and are looking for a stack with Prescott, I’d probably just keep a close eye on waivers and see if he gets a better role this season. He could also be a safer buy-low pick if you take a riskier tight end earlier in the draft.Â
