Jahmyr Gibbs was the second-most productive points per reception (PPR) running back a season ago (21.4 PPG) and posted nine top-10 finishes. That run of greatness included four top-2 finishes in a season where Saquon Barkley was flirting with history, Derrick Henry was scoring every week, and various other options at the position were having massive seasons.
Gibbs is unique in an era of production. He jumps off the screen with seemingly every touch – does that mean he deserves to be in the 1.01 conversation this year?
Jahmyr Gibbs Fantasy Outlook
I write for a living, and yet, I’m already running out of superlatives for a kid who is just 23 years of age. In Gibbs’ entire lifetime, not his playing career, his time on planet Earth, there have been two running backs to post multiple seasons with at least 50 catches and 10 rushing touchdowns while averaging at least five years per carry.
- LaDainian Tomlinson (2003 and 2006)
- Jahmyr Gibbs (2023-24)
The floor/ceiling combination for him is difficult to comprehend. His worst finish, while playing a position that results in missed time throughout games due to the nature of the car crashes they take part in, was RB25.
Sit back and enjoy all 20 of Jahmyr Gibbs’ touchdowns last season 🍿 pic.twitter.com/X7yQuKfwxr
— 𝔗𝔥𝔢 𝔇𝔢𝔱𝔯𝔬𝔦𝔱 𝔗𝔦𝔪𝔢𝔰 📰 (@the_det_times) June 28, 2025
His basement production week was still worthy of being in your lineup, putting him on par with some of the greatest per-game fantasy producers in the sport.
That week? It was a short work week as his Detroit Lions played the Chicago Bears on Thanksgiving and he was, to some degree, scripted out due to a 16-0 halftime lead. David Montgomery has 12 more rush attempts in that short rest game (Gibbs was +13 the week prior, making this a lower projected volume spot going in), and that fueled an underwhelming final fantasy box score.
Did I mention that, in this doom-and-gloom scenario, Gibbs totaled 104 scrimmage yards?
The only active players with more touchdowns through two NFL seasons are Alvin Kamara and Jonathan Taylor, both of whom had their shine as a poster boy of fantasy football. Gibbs is in that conversation, and with him changing his number this offseason from 26 to 0, a move that unofficially adds 17% agility to his profile, he has a strong case to be the first name called at PPR fantasy drafts.
Who Should Be The 1.01 in 2025?
For the record, I think if you simulated the 2025 regular season 1,000 times, Gibbs would lead the way in number of instances in which he finished as not only the top scoring running back in the game, but the top scoring FLEX player.
I just don’t have it ranked that way.
Maybe I should.
Bijan Robinson currently sits atop my 2025 wish list. Not because I think he is any better than Gibbs or that he is in a better position to succeed, but because of the unknown.
I’d argue that Gibbs has run about as hot as humanly possible through two career seasons. He’s played for a top-5 offense (per our Offense+ grading system) in both seasons and has benefited from continuity. He’s been able to largely stay healthy and to find the end zone plenty of times despite 25 rushing scores during those two seasons in 28 games from Montgomery. He hasn’t been impacted by the target earning abilities of Amon-Ra St. Brown or the potential for Jameson Williams to end a possession after a single play with a long score.
He’s great, but it’s also possible that he has run into a good set of circumstances thus far.
Robinson hasn’t had that luxury.
In his two years, he’s had a coaching change, average offensive line play, and three different primary quarterbacks, none of whom have been able to lead an offense full of potential in nearly that way that Jared Goff has in Detroit.
In theory, those are knocks against Robinson, and they are in the past. Looking forward, he has a second season under Raheem Morris, an apparent commitment to Michael Penix Jr. as the man under center, and proof of concept as to what is possible when he is featured. Following the Week 12 bye last season …
- Week 13 vs. Chargers: 32 touches, 135 yards, 1 rush TD
- Week 14 at Vikings: 24 touches, 101 yards, 1 rush TD
- Week 15 at Raiders: 23 touches, 127 yards
- Week 16 vs. Giants: 24 touches, 103 yards, 2 rush TDs
- Week 17 at Commanders: 20 touches, 98 yards, 2 rush TDs
- Week 18 vs. Panthers: 30 touches, 173 yards, 2 rush TDs
For the skeptics in the back, I hear you. “That’s a helluva run, but look at those opponents!”
That’s a fair point, but settle down. The Dirty Birds have seven games this season against teams that ranked bottom-10 a year ago in our Defense+ metric – it’s not as if a murderer’s row stands in their way this season and if the offense as a whole takes a step forward, shootout potential is very possible in those games (the Carolina Panthers, Arizona Cardinals, Los Angeles Rams, and Indianapolis Colts could all be opponents that play in ultra-fantasy friendly styles this season).
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Gibbs deserves to be in the conversation with Robinson, Barkley, and your favorite Tier 1 receiver (Ja’Marr Chase for most, but I’m going to be pushing Nico Collins propaganda as loudly as possible). Just because that’s not how I have it ranked doesn’t mean it’s wrong – it just means you’re going to lose to me if we are playing in the same league.
Detroit is fertile ground for elite fantasy production, and no matter how you split hairs at the tippy top of the board, their RB1 is in for another massive season.
Dan Fornek’s Jahmyr Gibbs Fantasy Projection
2024 was the season when Jahmyr Gibbs was able to showcase his ability to break fantasy football. The second-year running back followed up his strong rookie season in fantasy (16.1 PPR PPG) with an RB2 finish (21.3 PPG). Gibbs was well on his way to a top-five running back finish from Weeks 1 to 15, splitting the backfield with David Montgomery (18.9 PPG), but saw his workload erupt when Montgomery was injured.
From Weeks 16 to 18, Gibbs averaged 21.3 carries, 4.3 receptions, 162.4 all-purpose yards, and scored six touchdowns. He averaged 32.6 fantasy points per game during that three-game stretch, led by a 46.0 performance in Week 18 against the Vikings. Gibbs was third among running backs in expected points added (15.2) and finished as a top-five running back in avoided tackles (28.0%), 10+ yard rushes (41), and explosive play rate (16.4%).
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Gibbs is a top-five running back with David Montgomery, but has RB1 overall potential if the veteran goes down with an injury. The Lions’ offense will look different in 2025 as they try to replace their offensive coordinator and two interior offensive linemen, but neither should significantly impact a player like Gibbs, who can generate explosives at will.
Gibbs is a top-five fantasy running back in 2025 and can justifiably be the first running back drafted off the board in redraft leagues.
